nacho libre wrote: » it is quite likely that we may see a quick transition during April from cold to much warmer, drier and settled conditions. Nothing is certain but one to look out for. "
jdcv94 wrote: » Seeing as the jet stream is off on it's jolly boy's outing right now to Morocco with no signs of it returning on FI, what would this mean for our climate as we move into April/May? For arguments sake let's say the jet really likes it in Morocco and does not return in the near future and it's mid April. Would our climate have almost a Russian/Canadian effect where the snow/heat turns on it's head and we suddenly have Russian heat rather than cold?
George Sunsnow wrote: » We are too small too far west jutting into one of the worlds largest moisture sources unlike a continent It would be a duller wetter summer with slow moving low pressure systems meandering in from the south,sticking around due to their lack of momentum as they’ve no jet power moving them along Instead of looking to build ups of highs from the west,you’d need to look north or northeast for them and they in the rare event that they’d visited would be mainly blocked from us by the slow low procession from the south So not a very nice scenario
nacho libre wrote: » here is an interesting post from a knowledgeable member over on netweather, a fig leaf for those who want something warmer: "There is talk of a fairly early "final warming" in the strat occurring imminently and impacting in the coming days. This is likely to have far less influence but might help to maintain the cold for rather longer. I still favour more of a north-easterly to northerly flow, perhaps following a few less cold days with pretty cold conditions continuing for a while. Judah Cohen and several others, also favour this outcome with a cold trough dropping into Scandinavia within the next week or so. I've noted several references on here to March 1965. Some have pointed out how cold that month was but this is not entirely accurate. Like this March it started off with a very cold and snowy spell with the British minimum March record temp being set with -21.7c. Again like this March, there was a milder interlude for a week or so before another very cold spell. What has not been mentioned is that March 1965 ended with a heatwave and a record March maximum temp of 25c! I will not show the archive charts for that month but here's a link to the Met Office's Monthly Weather Report which makes for fascinating reading: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/mohippo/pdf/o/f/mar1965.pdf Now I am not saying that this year will replicate March 1965 or March/April 2013, just that I feel there's enough evidence to support further generally cold weather for a few more weeks. I'll end with, perhaps, some better news for those wishing to see some much more springlike weather. The La Nina is continuing to weaken and the ENSO state is likely to be more or less neutral within a few weeks. This stage of that cycle at this time of the year is often associated with fairly blocked patterns and weak jet streams. The continent starts to warm up rapidly as we move further into the spring season. it is quite likely that we may see a quick transition during April from cold to much warmer, drier and settled conditions. Nothing is certain but one to look out for. "
Artane2002 wrote: » I wonder if this March is giving the wettest March on record a run for it's money (Dublin Airport to be specific) It has been a very very wet month if we include the snowfall too.
sryanbruen wrote: » The wettest March on record for Dublin Airport (records go back to 1942) was 1964 with 106.6mm of rainfall. March 2008 came close at 102.4mm. March 2018 up to the 15th is at 142.7mm.Data from Met Éireann.
Gaoth Laidir wrote: » I think you mean 42.7 mm, Sryan?
sryanbruen wrote: » No I don't, provided all the heavy precipitation on the 1st and 2nd was snow.
sryanbruen wrote: » No I don't, provided all the heavy precipitation on the 1st and 2nd was snow. Casement Aerodrome in comparison:
Gaoth Laidir wrote: » Jaysus. I didn't think it'd be that much! Sorry for doubting the Statman!
HighLine wrote: » Surely an error? There is 18km between the two locations.
Oneiric 3 wrote: » Interesting commentary Nacho, but I will say, that 9 times out of 10, that in the period mid-April into May, it tends to becomes drier and warmer anyway. Indeed, this period is one of the driest on average in Ireland at least.
sryanbruen wrote: » In fact, I tweeted about this on the 5th March:https://twitter.com/BruenSryan/status/970595554815303680
nacho libre wrote: » I think he meant warmer and drier than usual due to the possible continental feed in a blocked pattern. Although if the jetstream is still so far south, as jdcv94 mentioned, it might mean we alternate between lows from biscay, and drier continental air from the east. So it could be good for thunderstorms fans, if lows from Biscay do pay us a visit.
