Medium & Long Term Property Market Chat

awec · 28-09-2020 10:58am

It's a bit of a silly comparison, while the second one is clearly a lot bigger it's also in the arsehole of nowhere in Leitrim.

awec · 28-09-2020 11:03am

PropQueries wrote: »

I think the estate agents in the west believe that with WFH that house prices in the west should increase to Dublin prices rather than they remain relatively static and that prices in Dublin should actually drop due to the extra options (90,000 of them according to the Q2 2020 GeoDirectory Report) now open to many of the WFH workers, which moves the dial on the bargaining power significantly in favour of potential buyers going forward.

Once the Dublin sellers take notice of this they will start lowering their prices to compete and the price difference between rural vs city homes may shorten significantly. Once that happens, the cost advantage of buying a rural home may not be worth it to future potential buyers.

You're example is excellent though and shows the nonsense being peddled by the estate agents outside Dublin.

What's all this "EAs believe house prices should increase to Dublin prices" nonsense etc?

EAs don't set prices. EAs do not define the market. If demand increases in rural Ireland, or the West, or anywhere, then prices will go up. If demand decreases, prices will go down.

What EAs say, what the papers say, what anyone says on here is irrelevant.

PropQueries · 28-09-2020 11:08am

awec wrote: »

It's a bit of a silly comparison, while the second one is clearly a lot bigger it's also in the arsehole of nowhere in Leitrim.

Everywhere outside the cities is in the 'arsehole of nowhere'. Even if you buy in an estate in a town, you still need a car to get to the local Tesco, doctor etc. as there's little or no public transport.

Urban sprawl isn't just confined to the cities. Many estates in towns and even villages all over the country might as well be located in the next village over due to the lack of public transport options.

hometruths · 28-09-2020 11:19am

awec wrote: »

It's a bit of a silly comparison, while the second one is clearly a lot bigger it's also in the arsehole of nowhere in Leitrim.

Eh?! It's an 8 minute drive from Carrick on Shannon.

It's tricky to find 340 sq m on 12 acres in Blackrock for 500k. That was kind of the point.

I think you may have missed the context of this.

PropQueries · 28-09-2020 11:26am

schmittel wrote: »

Eh?! It's an 8 minute drive from Carrick on Shannon.

It's tricky to find 340 sq m on 12 acres in Blackrock for 500k. That was kind of the point.

I think you may have missed the context of this.

You're right. I just put into Google maps the walking time from Castle Oaks in Carlow town to the below stores. I don't know Carlow that well and there may be closer supermarket chains but here was the data:

Tesco = 36 Minute walk
Dunnes = 44 minute walk
Lidl - 31 minute walk
Aldi = 29 minute walk

Now, remember they must walk back as well so that's at least an hours walk over and back.

No matter where one lives outside the cities, there's a high probabliity they would need a car to do anything so they might as well live in that large house you posted.

neutral guy · 28-09-2020 11:29am

Who said WFH gonna last forever ? Also people who coming back were they came from to Dublin has or had place to live .This could be parents/family/friends houses.They so sure that they always will work from home that make them grab a mortgage ? How many of them had saved for deposits paying crazy rents in Dublin ? I don't see any positive future on property markets in small towns.The harder recession will hit the more people will run to Dublin as every single time before !

hometruths · 28-09-2020 11:34am

PropQueries wrote: »

You're right. I just put into Google maps the walking time from Castle Oaks in Carlow town to the below stores. I don't know Carlow that well and there may be closer supermarket chains but here was the data:

Tesco = 36 Minute walk
Dunnes = 44 minute walk
Lidl - 31 minute walk
Aldi = 29 minute walk

Now, remember they must walk back as well so that's at least an hours walk over and back.

No matter where one lives outside the cities, there's a high probabliity they would need a car to do anything so they might as well live in that large house you posted.

Indeed. And there is also a good reason why a high proportion of people living in Blackrock have cars. I'd guess quite a lot of them drive to the supermarket and in many cases it takes more than 8 minutes to get there.

neutral guy · 28-09-2020 11:46am

Let's call things them names.
The PA started call people who can't afford buy in Dublin the people who leaving Dublin because WFH.
Simple manipulations trying get more people on market creating panic as in 2007.

awec · 28-09-2020 11:47am

schmittel wrote: »

Eh?! It's an 8 minute drive from Carrick on Shannon.

It's tricky to find 340 sq m on 12 acres in Blackrock for 500k. That was kind of the point.

I think you may have missed the context of this.

Exactly, it's the arsehole of nowhere.

Almost 10 minutes by car to the nearest town.

Shoden · 28-09-2020 11:47am

Post I made in another thread that I believe is relevant here:

Irish property YouTube channel "Fleming Real Estate" goes into detail about this in a few videos. They detail that there is always a six month delay in property prices dropping after major economic shocks. That this is a well researched phenomenon.

They go on to opine that there will be a longer delay this time, however, due to a build up of demand during lockdown.

PropQueries · 28-09-2020 11:48am

schmittel wrote: »

Indeed. And there is also a good reason why a high proportion of people living in Blackrock have cars. I'd guess quite a lot of them drive to the supermarket and in many cases it takes more than 8 minutes to get there.

You're 100% right. But at least they have options e.g. bus, dart etc. if they want to travel to the city.

I've lived in both rural areas and the city and outside of the high prices in the city, all the advantages of city living heavily outweigh rural areas.

But, given that rural living in now a real possibility with WFH, the old panic buying of a city property in case one never gets another chance at buying is probably gone forever and thus the high prices they previously commanded are most likely gone too. Is buying a home near the city really worth a €100k, €200k, €300k, €400k premium? I don't think so, so city prices, in my opinion, will fall significantly.

I would believe that the price premium for homes in Dublin city vs provincial areas will fall to c. €25k - €50k in the short to medium term. Such a drop in the price premium in the city, in my opinion, would also result in significant falls in home prices in rural areas as well, as both areas compete with each other on price.

rks · 28-09-2020 11:50am

I am not sure about everyone is heading out of Dublin to smaller towns/cities.

I have a friend who is looking to sell his house in Kilkenny. Advertised for last three months, not a single offer yet.

hometruths · 28-09-2020 11:52am

neutral guy wrote: »

Who said WFH gonna last forever ? Also people who coming back were they came from to Dublin has or had place to live .This could be parents/family/friends houses.They so sure that they always will work from home that make them grab a mortgage ? How many of them had saved for deposits paying crazy rents in Dublin ? I don't see any positive future on property markets in small towns.The harder recession will hit the more people will run to Dublin as every single time before !

Deutsche Bank for one.

awec · 28-09-2020 12:02pm

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/microsoft-signs-deal-for-dublin-docklands-office-as-an-post-takes-aim-at-revolut-1.4353820

"Microsoft has signed a deal to rent three floors of a new office block in the Dublin docklands. The deal for the space at No 3 Dublin Landings, which will accommodate up to 400 workers, is owned by investment company Iput. "

Happened a few weeks ago, I totally missed this one, I guess our resident news posters on commercial property did too as I don't think it was posted up here.

hometruths · 28-09-2020 12:11pm

awec wrote: »

Exactly, it's the arsehole of nowhere.

Almost 10 minutes by car to the nearest town.

If your definition of arsehole of nowhere is almost 10 minutes by car to nearest town then obviously most places not in the middle of a town are in the arsehole of nowhere.

Eg according to Google Maps Eastmount in Delgany is 7 minutes drive from Greystones Dart station.

I used this example because I know the area, and I recall from another thread so do you.

awec wrote: »

Lovely area. Nice looking houses.

awec · 28-09-2020 12:16pm

schmittel wrote: »

If your definition of arsehole of nowhere is almost 10 minutes by car to nearest town then obviously most places not in the middle of a town are in the arsehole of nowhere.

Eg according to Google Maps Eastmount in Delgany is 7 minutes drive from Greystones Dart station.

I used this example because I know the area, and I recall from another thread so do you.

But Eastmount is a 2 minute walk into Delgany.

It's in Delgany, not Greystones. Within walking distance there is a school, a creche, a butchers, a pub, a shop, a cafe, a grocer, a restaurant, another coffee shop.

What's in walking distance of that house in Leitrim?

John Hutton · 28-09-2020 12:26pm

I was all set up to buy at the end of this year or first half of next. Have deposit saved etc. After a lot of thinking I have decided to leave it until the end of summer 2021 before buying at the earliest.

This is a bit of a risk, I'm hoping that my job will be unaffected (it shouldn't be) and that prices will go down. It's a bit crap as I have to stay at home with the parents for longer, but that has upsides too as I am able to help them out etc. given the pandemic and that.

I'm looking at it this way, if things stay the same as they are now prices will be about the same, and I will have a bigger deposit. But there is a good chance prices will go down so I can get something better than I could now.

hometruths · 28-09-2020 12:27pm

awec wrote: »

But Eastmount is a 2 minute walk into Delgany.

It's in Delgany, not Greystones. Within walking distance there is a school, a creche, a butchers, a pub, a shop, a cafe, a grocer, a restaurant, another coffee shop.

What's in walking distance of that house in Leitrim?

Lough Key Forest Park and not a lot else. I get that's not for you personally, and it's not for me either, but that was not the point of the comparison.

Delgany is not a town.

As you may have guessed I live in Delgany, and whilst it is charming it is not exactly overflowing with facilities. We have to get in the car for almost everything and drive the guts of 10 minutes to Greystones.

Nobody describes Delgany as being in the arsehole of nowhere, quite the opposite in fact.

awec · 28-09-2020 12:28pm

schmittel wrote: »

Lough Key Forest Park and not a lot else. I get that's not for you personally, and it's not for me either, but that was not the point of the comparison.

Delgany is not a town.

As you may have guessed I live in Delgany, and whilst it is charming it is not exactly overflowing with facilities. We have to get in the car for almost everything and drive the guts of 10 minutes to Greystones.

Nobody describes Delgany as being in the arsehole of nowhere, quite the opposite in fact.

Delgany is a village though (and a lovely one at that). It has facilities. You have the option of walking for a pint if you want.

Yes, you couldn't get by without leaving the village.

hometruths · 28-09-2020 12:36pm

awec wrote: »

Delgany is a village though (and a lovely one at that). It has facilities. You have the option of walking for a pint if you want.

I'll agree with you on that, the option of walking for a pint is the best thing about Delgany, (and let's hope it stays that way!) For everything else we drive.

If walking for a pint is the criteria there are endless locations that truly are in the arsehole of nowhere, but you can still walk for a pint.

IAmTheReign · 28-09-2020 1:06pm

Interesting idea for a thread! Hard to see how anyone could be particularly optimistic for the property market in the medium term.

I think we're looking at a fairly major mortgage arrears crisis now payment breaks are coming to an end. Estimates that 30,000 people will fail to start repaying their mortgage as they are still out of work.

Add to that forecasts of 35,000 job losses in the event of no trade deal with the UK at the end of the year, a situation that seems more and more likely by the day.

Hubertj · 28-09-2020 1:08pm

schmittel wrote: »

I'll agree with you on that, the option of walking for a pint is the best thing about Delgany, (and let's hope it stays that way!) For everything else we drive.

If walking for a pint is the criteria there are endless locations that truly are in the arsehole of nowhere, but you can still walk for a pint.

I'm confused by this debate. I can't think that someone would decide to move out of a city/large town and not expect to need a car to get around.

hometruths · 28-09-2020 1:19pm

Hubertj wrote: »

I'm confused by this debate. I can't think that someone would decide to move out of a city/large town and not expect to need a car to get around.

I'm a bit confused too! That's why I suggested awec may have missed the point!

IAmTheReign · 28-09-2020 1:21pm

Hubertj wrote: »

I'm confused by this debate. I can't think that someone would decide to move out of a city/large town and not expect to need a car to get around.

I think the point is there's a difference between living somewhere where you need a car to get around versus needing a car to do literally anything at all. I know if I moved down the country I'd at least want to live somewhere I could walk to get a pint or something to eat.

PropQueries · 28-09-2020 2:47pm

awec wrote: »

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/microsoft-signs-deal-for-dublin-docklands-office-as-an-post-takes-aim-at-revolut-1.4353820

"Microsoft has signed a deal to rent three floors of a new office block in the Dublin docklands. The deal for the space at No 3 Dublin Landings, which will accommodate up to 400 workers, is owned by investment company Iput. "

Happened a few weeks ago, I totally missed this one, I guess our resident news posters on commercial property did too as I don't think it was posted up here.

It could be that Microsoft is just moving their existing staff from WeWork space and other leased office spaces in the city to the new building and may not result in an additional 400 jobs.

It's the same with Google and Facebook. They have leased a significant amount of office space within the city while they were/are waiting for their own office buildings currently under construction to be completed. The new Google and Facebook headquarters will most likely just result in their existing workers relocating from existing leased office space within the city to their new buildings once completed and may not actually result in an increase in their existing workforce.

This will also have a significant impact on the supply of additional office space re-entering the market in the next couple of years.

Link to Microsoft/ WeWork article from 2018 here: https://www.irishtimes.com/business/work/wework-officially-opens-doors-of-iveagh-court-1.3528871

hometruths · 28-09-2020 4:04pm

Latest mortgage arrears statistics published

PDHs
9,591 accounts were overdue by between 2 and 5 years
11,936 accounts in arrears by between 5 and 10 years
4,701 were in arrears greater than 10 years

Or to put it another way, approximately 5.25 billion in mortgage debt that is not being paid.

So as long as these mortgage holders enjoy the use of the property that is 5.25 billion in free credit - i.e there is no cost to holding that debt.

Plenty of people comment that because of the CB lending rules the market is not being propped up by easy credit.

That is true of new mortgage holders, but there is a fair chunk of easy credit propping up the market nonetheless. And this is just PDHs - there is another slug of arrears in the BTL sector, though not quite as large.

As long as people are happy to continue subsidising the above, then I guess governments will continue as we are now and just try and unwind this ever so slowly.

But if there is a change in mood this could unravel very quickly. Another potential headwind for property.

Hubertj · 28-09-2020 4:41pm

schmittel wrote: »

Latest mortgage arrears statistics published

PDHs
9,591 accounts were overdue by between 2 and 5 years
11,936 accounts in arrears by between 5 and 10 years
4,701 were in arrears greater than 10 years

Or to put it another way, approximately 5.25 billion in mortgage debt that is not being paid.

So as long as these mortgage holders enjoy the use of the property that is 5.25 billion in free credit - i.e there is no cost to holding that debt.

Plenty of people comment that because of the CB lending rules the market is not being propped up by easy credit.

That is true of new mortgage holders, but there is a fair chunk of easy credit propping up the market nonetheless. And this is just PDHs - there is another slug of arrears in the BTL sector, though not quite as large.

As long as people are happy to continue subsidising the above, then I guess governments will continue as we are now and just try and unwind this ever so slowly.

But if there is a change in mood this could unravel very quickly. Another potential headwind for property.

This is both a commercial and political issue. I fully agree with you on the above but the will to change it is not there. Current government can’t do it as the bombers and trots would go mad. If the bombers get into power there is no way they can change it either as they are also cowards.

From reading up on it a bit the banks did some good work in reducing the number in arrears using various mechanisms but it took a long time to get there. Hopefully they can use that experience to deal with some of the newer problems in a more timely manner.

PropQueries · 28-09-2020 4:54pm

schmittel wrote: »

Latest mortgage arrears statistics published

PDHs
9,591 accounts were overdue by between 2 and 5 years
11,936 accounts in arrears by between 5 and 10 years
4,701 were in arrears greater than 10 years

Or to put it another way, approximately 5.25 billion in mortgage debt that is not being paid.

So as long as these mortgage holders enjoy the use of the property that is 5.25 billion in free credit - i.e there is no cost to holding that debt.

Plenty of people comment that because of the CB lending rules the market is not being propped up by easy credit.

That is true of new mortgage holders, but there is a fair chunk of easy credit propping up the market nonetheless. And this is just PDHs - there is another slug of arrears in the BTL sector, though not quite as large.

As long as people are happy to continue subsidising the above, then I guess governments will continue as we are now and just try and unwind this ever so slowly.

But if there is a change in mood this could unravel very quickly. Another potential headwind for property.

I think the problem which hasn't been addressed is that the mortgage market is designed for a jobs for life economy which doesn't exist anymore outside of we all know who.

If you could hand back your keys and re-apply for a mortgage again in 3 years with the debt wiped from your record, not many would put up a fight against repossessions. It would also align the interests of home buyers, the banks and the wider economy.

It only matters in todays regulatory environment as once you miss a payment, you're basically blacklisted for the rest of your productive life, which makes no sense in an economy where the majority of home buyers will go through several periods of financial hardship.

hometruths · 28-09-2020 5:30pm

Hubertj wrote: »

This is both a commercial and political issue. I fully agree with you on the above but the will to change it is not there. Current government can’t do it as the bombers and trots would go mad. If the bombers get into power there is no way they can change it either as they are also cowards.

From reading up on it a bit the banks did some good work in reducing the number in arrears using various mechanisms but it took a long time to get there. Hopefully they can use that experience to deal with some of the newer problems in a more timely manner.

This is another issue that demographics might come into play. If younger voters who can't buy property start to agitate that houses are more expensive and mortgage rates are higher because of this, the mood might change.

I suspect a lot of these accounts are jumbo mortgages - Pamela Flood type of affairs. If the bombers and trots were clever they could turn it to their advantage.

The various mechanisms are some variation of extend and pretend. On top of the arrears figures there are a heap of these restructured arrangements. Whilst these help the stats the underlying problem remains - i.e higher prices and mortgage rates.

hometruths · 28-09-2020 5:32pm

PropQueries wrote: »

I think the problem which hasn't been addressed is that the mortgage market is designed for a jobs for life economy which doesn't exist anymore outside of we all know who.

If you could hand back your keys and re-apply for a mortgage again in 3 years with the debt wiped from your record, not many would put up a fight against repossessions. It would also align the interests of home buyers, the banks and the wider economy.

It only matters in todays regulatory environment as once you miss a payment, you're basically blacklisted for the rest of your productive life, which makes no sense in an economy where the majority of home buyers will go through several periods of financial hardship.

Totally agree. I'd be in favour of removing the CB lending limits and allowing mortgage holders to hand back the keys, and let the bank take the hit for the arrears.

I think you'd find if the banks were going to be on the hook for amounts in default they'd be pretty handy about regulating the lending limits themselves.

hometruths · 28-09-2020 5:49pm

Actually thinking about my previous two posts, therein lies the political solution.

Imagine if a party stepped up and said here's our plan to overhaul the mortgage process:

scrap the CB lending limits
allow buyers to borrow as much as the bank will be willing to lend them
allow banks to take rent payments into account as well as savings
if the borrower gets into arrears they can hand the keys back to bank
this will increase competition and reduce rates

BUT in order to do this we will have to overhaul the repossession process, here's our plan:

repossessions will be accelerated on a case by case basis. For example mortgages that owe 1 million, have 5 spare beds, and have not paid anything in 10 years will be first on the list.

All repossessions will be means tested with those most easily able to afford a change in circumstances will be prioritised.

If you are in genuine difficulties and in a house that is equivalent of the social housing alternative, we will convert it to social housing.

i.e nobody who is in dire straits will be homeless.

I can't imagine anybody would have a problem with the above. In fact I think it would be kind of popular.

neutral guy · 28-09-2020 5:54pm

schmittel wrote: »

Actually thinking about my previous two posts, therein lies the political solution.

Imagine if a party stepped up and said here's our plan to overhaul the mortgage process:

scrap the CB lending limits
allow buyers to borrow as much as the bank will be willing to lend them
allow banks to take rent payments into account as well as savings
if the borrower gets into arrears they can hand the keys back to bank
this will increase competition and reduce rates

BUT in order to do this we will have to overhaul the repossession process, here's our plan:

repossessions will be accelerated on a case by case basis. For example mortgages that owe 1 million, have 5 spare beds, and have not paid anything in 10 years will be first on the list.

All repossessions will be means tested with those most easily able to afford a change in circumstances will be prioritised.

If you are in genuine difficulties and in a house that is equivalent of the social housing alternative, we will convert it to social housing.

i.e nobody who is in dire straits will be homeless.

I can't imagine anybody would have a problem with the above. In fact I think it would be kind of popular.

Al this will come soon I think.
Except allow buyers to borrow as much as the bank will be willing to lend them

Bubbaclaus · 28-09-2020 6:18pm

Retail sales in August 2020 were 6.8% higher than in August 2019. How do the people claiming a massive economy collapse is in process explain that?

neutral guy · 28-09-2020 6:21pm

Bubbaclaus wrote: »

Retail sales in August 2020 were 6.8% higher than in August 2019. How do the people claiming a massive economy collapse is in process explain that?

People stopped buy food in cafe/restaraunts because they was closed and started buy food in Tesco/Lidl/Aldi.Many other stuff was bought online from irish shops due with problem with delivery from abroad.

Hubertj · 28-09-2020 6:52pm

schmittel wrote: »

Actually thinking about my previous two posts, therein lies the political solution.

Imagine if a party stepped up and said here's our plan to overhaul the mortgage process:

scrap the CB lending limits
allow buyers to borrow as much as the bank will be willing to lend them
allow banks to take rent payments into account as well as savings
if the borrower gets into arrears they can hand the keys back to bank
this will increase competition and reduce rates

BUT in order to do this we will have to overhaul the repossession process, here's our plan:

repossessions will be accelerated on a case by case basis. For example mortgages that owe 1 million, have 5 spare beds, and have not paid anything in 10 years will be first on the list.

All repossessions will be means tested with those most easily able to afford a change in circumstances will be prioritised.

If you are in genuine difficulties and in a house that is equivalent of the social housing alternative, we will convert it to social housing.

i.e nobody who is in dire straits will be homeless.

I can't imagine anybody would have a problem with the above. In fact I think it would be kind of popular.

you've got my vote!

neutral guy · 28-09-2020 7:22pm

I found interesting couple things happened in number of days
At Thursday last week the support of 15K was introduced for first time buyers
If they will buy property on ghost estate or on middle of anywhere
Today from media ( independent for sure )
I got news that people/first time buyers are hovering property on estates outside the Dublin or on ghost estates in Roscommon/Waterford/etc
I still did not really understand does it vision or illusion
From last news today Bus Eirean canceling his 3 express bus lines to Cork,Limerick,Belfast
What I think is just a start and this will affect future property market on many locations

hometruths · 28-09-2020 8:14pm

Bubbaclaus wrote: »

Retail sales in August 2020 were 6.8% higher than in August 2019. How do the people claiming a massive economy collapse is in process explain that?

The increase largely explained by a big jump in a few sectors:

The volume of retail sales was higher in August 2020 compared to the same period of last year in Electrical Goods (+26.5%), Hardware, Paint & Glass (+26.2%), Furniture & Lighting (+26.1%)

I suspect August is not traditionally a bumper month for these goods.

But of course maybe the new normal is we'll all be out shopping for white goods and DIY materials every weekend and this bump in activity will sustain the economy.

neutral guy · 28-09-2020 8:19pm

schmittel wrote: »

The increase largely explained by a big jump in a few sectors:

I suspect August is not traditionally a bumper month for these goods.

But of course maybe the new normal is we'll all be out shopping for white goods and DIY materials every weekend and this bump in activity will sustain the economy.

This goods is normal for March/May not in August.On other side I found many houses painted during the Covid quarantine when people had nothing for to do at home at same time getting free money from government.

JJJackal · 28-09-2020 8:30pm

neutral guy wrote: »

I found interesting couple things happened in number of days
At Thursday last week the support of 15K was introduced for first time buyers
If they will buy property on ghost estate or on middle of anywhere
Today from media ( independent for sure )
I got news that people/first time buyers are hovering property on estates outside the Dublin or on ghost estates in Roscommon/Waterford/etc
I still did not really understand does it vision or illusion
From last news today Bus Eirean canceling his 3 express bus lines to Cork,Limerick,Belfast
What I think is just a start and this will affect future property market on many locations

Bus Eireann cancelled these services because there are better more efficient services on all lines highlighted

Some of these services are run in conjunction with Bus Eireann eg GoBe from Dublin to Cork...

JJJackal · 28-09-2020 8:32pm

schmittel wrote: »

Actually thinking about my previous two posts, therein lies the political solution.

Imagine if a party stepped up and said here's our plan to overhaul the mortgage process:

scrap the CB lending limits
allow buyers to borrow as much as the bank will be willing to lend them
allow banks to take rent payments into account as well as savings
if the borrower gets into arrears they can hand the keys back to bank
this will increase competition and reduce rates

BUT in order to do this we will have to overhaul the repossession process, here's our plan:

repossessions will be accelerated on a case by case basis. For example mortgages that owe 1 million, have 5 spare beds, and have not paid anything in 10 years will be first on the list.

All repossessions will be means tested with those most easily able to afford a change in circumstances will be prioritised.

If you are in genuine difficulties and in a house that is equivalent of the social housing alternative, we will convert it to social housing.

i.e nobody who is in dire straits will be homeless.

I can't imagine anybody would have a problem with the above. In fact I think it would be kind of popular.

If you could hand back the keys, the banks would maintain the current lending restrictions for alot of people imo.

The banks would be taking on alot of risk

neutral guy · 28-09-2020 8:55pm

I think with today repossesion situation in Ireland bank need investor to property for rent not the house buyer who take mortgage.
Nobody need young people who cant afford buy house.
The investors and market need people who buy house for rent and tennants
Because if mortgage holder does not pay mortgage he stay in house
If tenant does not pay rent he simply fly trough the door and another tenant take his place.In this case bank does not lose money because landlord continue pay mortgage.
This model will continue exist in Ireland as main property market model.
Nobody care what young fans of SF want this is money world not charity.
Votes for FF and FG will be bought lifting pensions,social welfares,minimum wage (young voters) and business will continue as usual.

hometruths · 28-09-2020 8:57pm

JJJackal wrote: »

If you could hand back the keys, the banks would maintain the current lending restrictions for alot of people imo.

The banks would be taking on alot of risk

Exactly, that's the point. But politically it is a win.

And in time the dynamics of mortgage lending will change. For a borrower it should become easier to get a mortgage and for a lender it should become easier to enforce the security.

Defaults will go down. Banks will be in better shape. So will the property market.

The banks ought to able to lend to more applicants if they can take into account rent payment history. Seems insane that someone can pay 1500 a month rent for three years, but then be told they can't afford a mortgage of 1250 a month because they are not saving 1500 a month!

The bank should take the risk, that's sort of an occupational hazard in the business of money lending!

neutral guy · 28-09-2020 9:04pm

schmittel wrote: »

Seems insane that someone can pay 1500 a month rent for three years, but then be told they can't afford a mortgage of 1250 a month because they are not saving 1500 a month!

The more insane when person pay 1500 rent and Save 1250 per month for deposit ! Bank still does not care about it.

Bass Reeves · 28-09-2020 10:07pm

neutral guy wrote: »

From last news today Bus Eirean canceling his 3 express bus lines to Cork,Limerick,Belfast
What I think is just a start and this will affect future property market on many locations

Bus Eireann struggled to compete with other operators on these routes. It's work practices were a shambles it tried to reorganize last year. However drivers refusing to do a litter pick, drivers going sick and having to be replaced on overtime, rules regarding pickup and drop off of buses, drivers insisting on bringing the same bus home as they started out with all made the service uncompetitive. Inflexibility increased cost and reduced passenger numbers. Private bus operators will fill the gap as they created the market anyway

neutral guy · 28-09-2020 10:14pm

Bass Reeves wrote: »

Bus Eireann struggled to compete with other operators on these routes. It's work practices were a shambles it tried to reorganize last year. However drivers refusing to do a litter pick, drivers going sick and having to be replaced on overtime, rules regarding pickup and drop off of buses, drivers insisting on bringing the same bus home as they started out with all made the service uncompetitive. Inflexibility increased cost and reduced passenger numbers. Private bus operators will fill the gap as they created the market anyway

We are not talking about drivers here.

Bass Reeves · 28-09-2020 10:22pm

neutral guy wrote: »

We are not talking about drivers here.

You were equating the dropping of the services as the start of something and that it would effect property prices. I explained why it has happened and that more efficient operations will replace any gap in services. For the last 15 years since motorways were put in place private bus operators have operated intercity services. At the start BE presumed there would be no demand for services. Every one of these routes have two operators on tgem. Most BE expressway services were multi stop at intermediate towns. Most private bus operators were end to end with minimal stood.
BE stopping inefficient services will have no effect on property prices and is the star of nothing

neutral guy · 29-09-2020 6:43am

The deputy governor of the Central Bank, Ed Sibley, has indicated that it should be easier for banks to repossess homes or otherwise take security on loans if the mortgage market in Ireland is to function properly again.

https://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/no-single-fix-for-distressed-loans-warns-central-banks-ed-sibley-39571088.html

Wanderer78 · 29-09-2020 6:47am

schmittel wrote:

For unrelated discussion of economic, please use the economics forum.

Interesting, mentions economically based terms in op, then directs economic debate to another forum, what exactly would you like to be debated on this thread?

Wanderer78 · 29-09-2020 6:49am

neutral guy wrote:

The deputy governor of the Central Bank, Ed Sibley, has indicated that it should be easier for banks to repossess homes or otherwise take security on loans if the mortgage market in Ireland is to function properly again.

What is properly functioning property market, and have we ever experienced it?

Bass Reeves · 29-09-2020 8:49am

Wanderer78 wrote: »

What is properly functioning property market, and have we ever experienced it?

The noughties was the nearest everybody left borrow what they like, builders left borrow what they like, lenders left lend what they wanted to. We know how that ended.

Medium & Long Term Property Market Chat

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