Medium & Long Term Property Market Chat

Hubertj

schmittel wrote: »

I am not saying nobody will work in an office, but I believe it is wishful thinking to imagine that the same proportion of employees will work 9-5 in an office in 2040 as in 2019.

I was only joking. But we also need to consider what other working trends will develop over medium to long term that will affect the way we live and property as a result. AI AR, further development in healthcare that will result in people living longer.

drogon.

For the folks that say property price will crash (I know in the other thread someone mentioned a 50% drop).

- Are you actually expecting to buy property or is this speculation ?
- For those that are buying, do you expect banks to continue to lend if there is a property crash or do you have cash put aside to buy when this happens ?

JJJackal

neutral guy wrote: »

In 20 years time many people will be replaced by robots and pandemic will only make this process quicker !

So some robot will be using your cordless drill?

neutral guy wrote: »

My cordless drill for 140 euros making more money for me than some land lords getting rent from 200K property !

What will you do then? The lads with the property will still be getting rent one way or the other

JJJackal

drogon. wrote: »

For the folks that say property price will crash (I know in the other thread someone mentioned a 50% drop).

- Are you actually expecting to buy property or is this speculation ?
- For those that are buy, do you expect banks to continue to left if there is a property crash or do you have cash put aside to buy when this happens ?

As long (plus about 12 months after that point) as the state props up wages and the banks allow mortgage payment breaks there will be no significant drops as no one will be forced into selling property

neutral guy

JJJackal wrote: »

So some robot will be using your cordless drill?



What will you do then? The lads with the property will still be getting rent one way or the other

Simply look how much workers left when many of them are/will be replaced by robots in a bank and how many guys spinning them drills on building site.

There is matter of time when multinational work force in Ireland will be replaced by robots or other technologies /or moved to cheapest work force area ( as India for example )

About 1200 direct/subs jobs been lost in Lithuania couple years ago when Barqlays moved them operations center from Vilnius to India.When they came to Lithuania in 2010 getting government support they said they came for long !
If companies like Barclay leave low paid country then is plenty chances that multinationals will leave Ireland once Ireland will lose low taxation war.At the moment Ireland in lose-lose situation

In next 5/10 years I expecting huge changes on job market in Ireland.

At the moment Ireland not prepared for it the same as for Brexit as well.

hometruths

drogon. wrote: »

For the folks that say property price will crash (I know in the other thread someone mentioned a 50% drop).

- Are you actually expecting to buy property or is this speculation ?
- For those that are buy, do you expect banks to continue to left if there is a property crash or do you have cash put aside to buy when this happens ?

Expecting to buy property within 12 months.

I will be selling first.

I am hoping I manage to buy and sell before market drops, as my current property is likely to drop more than property I will buy.

Graham

Mod Note

off topic posts deleted.

hometruths

drogon. wrote: »

For the folks that say property price will crash (I know in the other thread someone mentioned a 50% drop).

- Are you actually expecting to buy property or is this speculation ?
- For those that are buy, do you expect banks to continue to left if there is a property crash or do you have cash put aside to buy when this happens ?

It is also worth pointing out that it is possible to form a negative view of the market without that necessarily meaning you are hoping to make a killing buying cheap property.

Some on here don't get that.

Hubertj

Something else to consider medium to long term is developments in construction technology. In 10 years, what technology and materials etc will be used in the construction process. This could reduce building costs.

neutral guy

Hubertj wrote: »

Something else to consider medium to long term is developments in construction technology. In 10 years, what technology and materials etc will be used in the construction process. This could reduce building costs.

As far I know 16-20 years old boys work for main builders in Ireland making timber frame houses for them .Boys ( mainly irish lads ) earning 10.50/12 euros per hour.
Building costs reduced to minimum already and margin brought up as much as possible
Eastern europeans coming back home them places already taking brazilians which often work for less.
No changes in quality will be made and no better machines on factories will be used because cheap labor flow will be as usual.

Bass Reeves

Hubertj wrote: »

Something else to consider medium to long term is developments in construction technology. In 10 years, what technology and materials etc will be used in the construction process. This could reduce building costs.

neutral guy wrote: »

As far I know 16-20 years old boys work for main builders in Ireland making timber frame houses for them .Boys ( mainly irish lads ) earning 10.50/12 euros per hour.
Building costs reduced to minimum already and margin brought up as much as possible
Eastern europeans coming back home them places already taking brazilians which often work for less.
No changes in quality will be made and no better machines on factories will be used because cheap labor flow will be as usual.

New technologies have been introduced to the building industry for as long as a building industry has been around. None have managed to reduce the price of houses. Productivity is constantly improving within the sector. It is no longer the backbreaking work it was 10...30...30.. years ago. However houses are no cheaper as standards and the demand for them is constantly increasing.

Timber frame houses were around before I got my house build 30 years ago now. With every new advance in cost reduction, a new demand for bespoke design, certification or specification has increased the overall cost.

The constant issue and especially in Dublin is a lad is not going to get up at 5-6am, travel to a site, work all day and not be home again until 7pm for 5-600 euro/ week. For that type of working week lads want 800-1000/ week after tax.

hometruths

Strong demand in Carlow - 30 people queue overnight

Auctioneer June Doran maintains that the “unprecedented” interest comes from how work has been affected by the coronavirus; working from home has “freed up” people to consider moving beyond Dublin, she says.

“What I’m seeing is people who have left Carlow and who now spot an opportunity to return. These are people on good Dublin money who’re now coming back to Carlow while still able to maintain that salary. That’s going to have a very positive effect for the town.”

Today this is a big news story, and they have interviewed three of the buyers about relocating from Dublin. In less than 10 years time this will not be out of the ordinary.

PropQueries

schmittel wrote: »

Strong demand in Carlow - 30 people queue overnight



Today this is a big news story, and they have interviewed three of the buyers about relocating from Dublin. In less than 10 years time this will not be out of the ordinary.

Will be interesting if they're not all marked as sale agreed over the next week given the reported excess demand. What I find interesting is why they're not advertised for sale on MyHome.ie and just on Daft.ie?

But they are nice and they should all sell if there truly is any amount of excess demand out there at the moment.

Hubertj

schmittel wrote: »

Strong demand in Carlow - 30 people queue overnight



Today this is a big news story, and they have interviewed three of the buyers about relocating from Dublin. In less than 10 years time this will not be out of the ordinary.

Carlow also very commutable a couple days per week if needed. Nice balance.

hometruths

And in today's indo, some market commentary on Leitrim and Roscommon, once the graveyard of the Irish property market where they bulldozed ghost estates...

In Leitrim, property is now selling within five weeks of coming on the market.

REA agent Joe Brady is seeing clients buy in Leitrim with the intention of spending a maximum two days a week working in Dublin, a two-hour train journey away.

Properties with home office potential are being snapped up around the country, with REA Seamus Carthy in Roscommon having 43 potential buyers on a waiting list for homes with garden space priced between €350,000 and €500,000.

House buyers quit cities for home towns as remote working trend continues

None of this bodes well for the long term value of 3 bed semi ds in places like Goatstown.

neutral guy

schmittel wrote: »

And in today's indo, some market commentary on Leitrim and Roscommon, once the graveyard of the Irish property market where they bulldozed ghost estates...



House buyers quit cities for home towns as remote working trend continues

None of this bodes well for the long term value of 3 bed semi ds in places like Goatstown.

Property at 350/500K in Roscomon?I don't see any point buy a house at Dublin price and travel to Dublin after.Also I don't believe a single word that people hoovering property outside Dublin.Its look more like advertisment trying to sell property on top of the wave.

hometruths

neutral guy wrote: »

Property at 350/500K in Roscomon?I don't see any point buy a house at Dublin price and travel to Dublin after.Also I don't believe a single word that people hoovering property outside Dublin.Its look more like advertisment trying to sell property on top of the wave.

I would guess there are not many people thinking why pay 500k for 3 beds/120 sqm in Dublin, I'd rather pay 500k for 3 bed/120 sqm in Roscommon or Leitrim.

Logic would suggest the comparison is more like:

Will I pay 495k for 3 beds and 108 sqm for this:



or would I rather pay 475k for 7 beds, 340 sq m, 12 acres for this:

Hubertj

schmittel wrote: »

I would guess there are not many people thinking why pay 500k for 3 beds/120 sqm in Dublin, I'd rather pay 500k for 3 bed/120 sqm in Roscommon or Leitrim.

Logic would suggest the comparison is more like:

Will I pay 495k for 3 beds and 108 sqm for this:



or would I rather pay 475k for 7 beds, 340 sq m, 12 acres for this:

Fontana park is really deansgrange and not blackrock. It was a kip 15 years ago and now someone is looking for €500k for a matchbox in the place. Insanity.
I love Roscommon. My mum was from there so spent a lot of holidays down there. (Sorry though 2nd house was Roscommon, can see its Leitrim)

JohnnyChimpo

schmittel wrote: »

or would I rather pay 475k for 7 beds, 340 sq m, 12 acres for this:

Looks nice, hate to think what the upkeep costs on that every year tho. Plus it was built in 1845, hate to think of how many worker skeletons might be entombed in the foundations...

PropQueries

schmittel wrote: »

I would guess there are not many people thinking why pay 500k for 3 beds/120 sqm in Dublin, I'd rather pay 500k for 3 bed/120 sqm in Roscommon or Leitrim.

Logic would suggest the comparison is more like:

Will I pay 495k for 3 beds and 108 sqm for this:



or would I rather pay 475k for 7 beds, 340 sq m, 12 acres for this:

I think the estate agents in the west believe that with WFH that house prices in the west should increase to Dublin prices rather than they remain relatively static and that prices in Dublin should actually drop due to the extra options (90,000 of them according to the Q2 2020 GeoDirectory Report) now open to many of the WFH workers, which moves the dial on the bargaining power significantly in favour of potential buyers going forward.

Once the Dublin sellers take notice of this they will start lowering their prices to compete and the price difference between rural vs city homes may shorten significantly. Once that happens, the cost advantage of buying a rural home may not be worth it to future potential buyers.

You're example is excellent though and shows the nonsense being peddled by the estate agents outside Dublin.

awec

It's a bit of a silly comparison, while the second one is clearly a lot bigger it's also in the arsehole of nowhere in Leitrim.

awec

PropQueries wrote: »

I think the estate agents in the west believe that with WFH that house prices in the west should increase to Dublin prices rather than they remain relatively static and that prices in Dublin should actually drop due to the extra options (90,000 of them according to the Q2 2020 GeoDirectory Report) now open to many of the WFH workers, which moves the dial on the bargaining power significantly in favour of potential buyers going forward.

Once the Dublin sellers take notice of this they will start lowering their prices to compete and the price difference between rural vs city homes may shorten significantly. Once that happens, the cost advantage of buying a rural home may not be worth it to future potential buyers.

You're example is excellent though and shows the nonsense being peddled by the estate agents outside Dublin.

What's all this "EAs believe house prices should increase to Dublin prices" nonsense etc?

EAs don't set prices. EAs do not define the market. If demand increases in rural Ireland, or the West, or anywhere, then prices will go up. If demand decreases, prices will go down.

What EAs say, what the papers say, what anyone says on here is irrelevant.

PropQueries

awec wrote: »

It's a bit of a silly comparison, while the second one is clearly a lot bigger it's also in the arsehole of nowhere in Leitrim.

Everywhere outside the cities is in the 'arsehole of nowhere'. Even if you buy in an estate in a town, you still need a car to get to the local Tesco, doctor etc. as there's little or no public transport.

Urban sprawl isn't just confined to the cities. Many estates in towns and even villages all over the country might as well be located in the next village over due to the lack of public transport options.

hometruths

awec wrote: »

It's a bit of a silly comparison, while the second one is clearly a lot bigger it's also in the arsehole of nowhere in Leitrim.

Eh?! It's an 8 minute drive from Carrick on Shannon.

It's tricky to find 340 sq m on 12 acres in Blackrock for 500k. That was kind of the point.

I think you may have missed the context of this.

PropQueries

schmittel wrote: »

Eh?! It's an 8 minute drive from Carrick on Shannon.

It's tricky to find 340 sq m on 12 acres in Blackrock for 500k. That was kind of the point.

I think you may have missed the context of this.

You're right. I just put into Google maps the walking time from Castle Oaks in Carlow town to the below stores. I don't know Carlow that well and there may be closer supermarket chains but here was the data:

Tesco = 36 Minute walk
Dunnes = 44 minute walk
Lidl - 31 minute walk
Aldi = 29 minute walk

Now, remember they must walk back as well so that's at least an hours walk over and back.

No matter where one lives outside the cities, there's a high probabliity they would need a car to do anything so they might as well live in that large house you posted.

neutral guy

Who said WFH gonna last forever ? Also people who coming back were they came from to Dublin has or had place to live .This could be parents/family/friends houses.They so sure that they always will work from home that make them grab a mortgage ? How many of them had saved for deposits paying crazy rents in Dublin ? I don't see any positive future on property markets in small towns.The harder recession will hit the more people will run to Dublin as every single time before !

hometruths

PropQueries wrote: »

You're right. I just put into Google maps the walking time from Castle Oaks in Carlow town to the below stores. I don't know Carlow that well and there may be closer supermarket chains but here was the data:

Tesco = 36 Minute walk
Dunnes = 44 minute walk
Lidl - 31 minute walk
Aldi = 29 minute walk

Now, remember they must walk back as well so that's at least an hours walk over and back.

No matter where one lives outside the cities, there's a high probabliity they would need a car to do anything so they might as well live in that large house you posted.

Indeed. And there is also a good reason why a high proportion of people living in Blackrock have cars. I'd guess quite a lot of them drive to the supermarket and in many cases it takes more than 8 minutes to get there.

neutral guy

Let's call things them names.
The PA started call people who can't afford buy in Dublin the people who leaving Dublin because WFH.
Simple manipulations trying get more people on market creating panic as in 2007.

awec

schmittel wrote: »

Eh?! It's an 8 minute drive from Carrick on Shannon.

It's tricky to find 340 sq m on 12 acres in Blackrock for 500k. That was kind of the point.

I think you may have missed the context of this.

Exactly, it's the arsehole of nowhere.

Almost 10 minutes by car to the nearest town.

Shoden

Post I made in another thread that I believe is relevant here:

Irish property YouTube channel "Fleming Real Estate" goes into detail about this in a few videos. They detail that there is always a six month delay in property prices dropping after major economic shocks. That this is a well researched phenomenon.

They go on to opine that there will be a longer delay this time, however, due to a build up of demand during lockdown.