Advertisement
If you have a new account but are having problems posting or verifying your account, please email us on hello@boards.ie for help. Thanks :)
Hello all! Please ensure that you are posting a new thread or question in the appropriate forum. The Feedback forum is overwhelmed with questions that are having to be moved elsewhere. If you need help to verify your account contact hello@boards.ie

Medium & Long Term Property Market Chat

Options
13567

Comments

  • Options
    #62
    PropQueries
    Registered Users Posts: 2,203 ✭✭✭PropQueries


    schmittel wrote: »
    Indeed. And there is also a good reason why a high proportion of people living in Blackrock have cars. I'd guess quite a lot of them drive to the supermarket and in many cases it takes more than 8 minutes to get there.

    You're 100% right. But at least they have options e.g. bus, dart etc. if they want to travel to the city.

    I've lived in both rural areas and the city and outside of the high prices in the city, all the advantages of city living heavily outweigh rural areas.

    But, given that rural living in now a real possibility with WFH, the old panic buying of a city property in case one never gets another chance at buying is probably gone forever and thus the high prices they previously commanded are most likely gone too. Is buying a home near the city really worth a €100k, €200k, €300k, €400k premium? I don't think so, so city prices, in my opinion, will fall significantly.

    I would believe that the price premium for homes in Dublin city vs provincial areas will fall to c. €25k - €50k in the short to medium term. Such a drop in the price premium in the city, in my opinion, would also result in significant falls in home prices in rural areas as well, as both areas compete with each other on price.


  • Options
    #63
    rks
    Registered Users Posts: 179 ✭✭rks


    I am not sure about everyone is heading out of Dublin to smaller towns/cities.

    I have a friend who is looking to sell his house in Kilkenny. Advertised for last three months, not a single offer yet.


  • Options
    #64
    hometruths
    Registered Users, Subscribers Posts: 5,798 ✭✭✭hometruths


    neutral guy wrote: »
    Who said WFH gonna last forever ? Also people who coming back were they came from to Dublin has or had place to live .This could be parents/family/friends houses.They so sure that they always will work from home that make them grab a mortgage ? How many of them had saved for deposits paying crazy rents in Dublin ? I don't see any positive future on property markets in small towns.The harder recession will hit the more people will run to Dublin as every single time before !

    Deutsche Bank for one.


  • Options
    #65
    awec
    Administrators Posts: 53,429 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭awec


    https://www.irishtimes.com/business/microsoft-signs-deal-for-dublin-docklands-office-as-an-post-takes-aim-at-revolut-1.4353820

    "Microsoft has signed a deal to rent three floors of a new office block in the Dublin docklands. The deal for the space at No 3 Dublin Landings, which will accommodate up to 400 workers, is owned by investment company Iput. "

    Happened a few weeks ago, I totally missed this one, I guess our resident news posters on commercial property did too as I don't think it was posted up here.


  • Options
    #66
    hometruths
    Registered Users, Subscribers Posts: 5,798 ✭✭✭hometruths


    awec wrote: »
    Exactly, it's the arsehole of nowhere.

    Almost 10 minutes by car to the nearest town.

    If your definition of arsehole of nowhere is almost 10 minutes by car to nearest town then obviously most places not in the middle of a town are in the arsehole of nowhere.

    Eg according to Google Maps Eastmount in Delgany is 7 minutes drive from Greystones Dart station.

    I used this example because I know the area, and I recall from another thread so do you.
    awec wrote: »
    Lovely area. Nice looking houses.


  • Advertisement
  • Options
    #67
    awec
    Administrators Posts: 53,429 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭awec


    schmittel wrote: »
    If your definition of arsehole of nowhere is almost 10 minutes by car to nearest town then obviously most places not in the middle of a town are in the arsehole of nowhere.

    Eg according to Google Maps Eastmount in Delgany is 7 minutes drive from Greystones Dart station.

    I used this example because I know the area, and I recall from another thread so do you.

    But Eastmount is a 2 minute walk into Delgany.

    It's in Delgany, not Greystones. Within walking distance there is a school, a creche, a butchers, a pub, a shop, a cafe, a grocer, a restaurant, another coffee shop.

    What's in walking distance of that house in Leitrim?


  • Options
    #68
    John Hutton
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,301 ✭✭✭John Hutton


    I was all set up to buy at the end of this year or first half of next. Have deposit saved etc. After a lot of thinking I have decided to leave it until the end of summer 2021 before buying at the earliest.

    This is a bit of a risk, I'm hoping that my job will be unaffected (it shouldn't be) and that prices will go down. It's a bit crap as I have to stay at home with the parents for longer, but that has upsides too as I am able to help them out etc. given the pandemic and that.

    I'm looking at it this way, if things stay the same as they are now prices will be about the same, and I will have a bigger deposit. But there is a good chance prices will go down so I can get something better than I could now.


  • Options
    #69
    hometruths
    Registered Users, Subscribers Posts: 5,798 ✭✭✭hometruths


    awec wrote: »
    But Eastmount is a 2 minute walk into Delgany.

    It's in Delgany, not Greystones. Within walking distance there is a school, a creche, a butchers, a pub, a shop, a cafe, a grocer, a restaurant, another coffee shop.

    What's in walking distance of that house in Leitrim?

    Lough Key Forest Park and not a lot else. I get that's not for you personally, and it's not for me either, but that was not the point of the comparison.

    Delgany is not a town.

    As you may have guessed I live in Delgany, and whilst it is charming it is not exactly overflowing with facilities. We have to get in the car for almost everything and drive the guts of 10 minutes to Greystones.

    Nobody describes Delgany as being in the arsehole of nowhere, quite the opposite in fact.


  • Options
    #70
    awec
    Administrators Posts: 53,429 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭awec


    schmittel wrote: »
    Lough Key Forest Park and not a lot else. I get that's not for you personally, and it's not for me either, but that was not the point of the comparison.

    Delgany is not a town.

    As you may have guessed I live in Delgany, and whilst it is charming it is not exactly overflowing with facilities. We have to get in the car for almost everything and drive the guts of 10 minutes to Greystones.

    Nobody describes Delgany as being in the arsehole of nowhere, quite the opposite in fact.

    Delgany is a village though (and a lovely one at that). It has facilities. You have the option of walking for a pint if you want.

    Yes, you couldn't get by without leaving the village.


  • Options
    #71
    hometruths
    Registered Users, Subscribers Posts: 5,798 ✭✭✭hometruths


    awec wrote: »
    Delgany is a village though (and a lovely one at that). It has facilities. You have the option of walking for a pint if you want.

    I'll agree with you on that, the option of walking for a pint is the best thing about Delgany, (and let's hope it stays that way!) For everything else we drive.

    If walking for a pint is the criteria there are endless locations that truly are in the arsehole of nowhere, but you can still walk for a pint.


  • Advertisement
  • Options
    #72
    IAmTheReign
    Registered Users Posts: 339 ✭✭IAmTheReign


    Interesting idea for a thread! Hard to see how anyone could be particularly optimistic for the property market in the medium term.

    I think we're looking at a fairly major mortgage arrears crisis now payment breaks are coming to an end. Estimates that 30,000 people will fail to start repaying their mortgage as they are still out of work.

    Add to that forecasts of 35,000 job losses in the event of no trade deal with the UK at the end of the year, a situation that seems more and more likely by the day.


  • Options
    #73
    Hubertj
    Registered Users Posts: 2,000 ✭✭✭Hubertj


    schmittel wrote: »
    I'll agree with you on that, the option of walking for a pint is the best thing about Delgany, (and let's hope it stays that way!) For everything else we drive.

    If walking for a pint is the criteria there are endless locations that truly are in the arsehole of nowhere, but you can still walk for a pint.

    I'm confused by this debate. I can't think that someone would decide to move out of a city/large town and not expect to need a car to get around.


  • Options
    #74
    hometruths
    Registered Users, Subscribers Posts: 5,798 ✭✭✭hometruths


    Hubertj wrote: »
    I'm confused by this debate. I can't think that someone would decide to move out of a city/large town and not expect to need a car to get around.

    I'm a bit confused too! That's why I suggested awec may have missed the point!


  • Options
    #75
    IAmTheReign
    Registered Users Posts: 339 ✭✭IAmTheReign


    Hubertj wrote: »
    I'm confused by this debate. I can't think that someone would decide to move out of a city/large town and not expect to need a car to get around.

    I think the point is there's a difference between living somewhere where you need a car to get around versus needing a car to do literally anything at all. I know if I moved down the country I'd at least want to live somewhere I could walk to get a pint or something to eat.


  • Options
    #76
    PropQueries
    Registered Users Posts: 2,203 ✭✭✭PropQueries


    awec wrote: »
    https://www.irishtimes.com/business/microsoft-signs-deal-for-dublin-docklands-office-as-an-post-takes-aim-at-revolut-1.4353820

    "Microsoft has signed a deal to rent three floors of a new office block in the Dublin docklands. The deal for the space at No 3 Dublin Landings, which will accommodate up to 400 workers, is owned by investment company Iput. "

    Happened a few weeks ago, I totally missed this one, I guess our resident news posters on commercial property did too as I don't think it was posted up here.

    It could be that Microsoft is just moving their existing staff from WeWork space and other leased office spaces in the city to the new building and may not result in an additional 400 jobs.

    It's the same with Google and Facebook. They have leased a significant amount of office space within the city while they were/are waiting for their own office buildings currently under construction to be completed. The new Google and Facebook headquarters will most likely just result in their existing workers relocating from existing leased office space within the city to their new buildings once completed and may not actually result in an increase in their existing workforce.

    This will also have a significant impact on the supply of additional office space re-entering the market in the next couple of years.

    Link to Microsoft/ WeWork article from 2018 here: https://www.irishtimes.com/business/work/wework-officially-opens-doors-of-iveagh-court-1.3528871


  • Options
    #77
    hometruths
    Registered Users, Subscribers Posts: 5,798 ✭✭✭hometruths


    Latest mortgage arrears statistics published

    PDHs
    9,591 accounts were overdue by between 2 and 5 years
    11,936 accounts in arrears by between 5 and 10 years
    4,701 were in arrears greater than 10 years

    Or to put it another way, approximately 5.25 billion in mortgage debt that is not being paid.

    So as long as these mortgage holders enjoy the use of the property that is 5.25 billion in free credit - i.e there is no cost to holding that debt.

    Plenty of people comment that because of the CB lending rules the market is not being propped up by easy credit.

    That is true of new mortgage holders, but there is a fair chunk of easy credit propping up the market nonetheless. And this is just PDHs - there is another slug of arrears in the BTL sector, though not quite as large.

    As long as people are happy to continue subsidising the above, then I guess governments will continue as we are now and just try and unwind this ever so slowly.

    But if there is a change in mood this could unravel very quickly. Another potential headwind for property.


  • Options
    #78
    Hubertj
    Registered Users Posts: 2,000 ✭✭✭Hubertj


    schmittel wrote: »
    Latest mortgage arrears statistics published

    PDHs
    9,591 accounts were overdue by between 2 and 5 years
    11,936 accounts in arrears by between 5 and 10 years
    4,701 were in arrears greater than 10 years

    Or to put it another way, approximately 5.25 billion in mortgage debt that is not being paid.

    So as long as these mortgage holders enjoy the use of the property that is 5.25 billion in free credit - i.e there is no cost to holding that debt.

    Plenty of people comment that because of the CB lending rules the market is not being propped up by easy credit.

    That is true of new mortgage holders, but there is a fair chunk of easy credit propping up the market nonetheless. And this is just PDHs - there is another slug of arrears in the BTL sector, though not quite as large.

    As long as people are happy to continue subsidising the above, then I guess governments will continue as we are now and just try and unwind this ever so slowly.

    But if there is a change in mood this could unravel very quickly. Another potential headwind for property.

    This is both a commercial and political issue. I fully agree with you on the above but the will to change it is not there. Current government can’t do it as the bombers and trots would go mad. If the bombers get into power there is no way they can change it either as they are also cowards.

    From reading up on it a bit the banks did some good work in reducing the number in arrears using various mechanisms but it took a long time to get there. Hopefully they can use that experience to deal with some of the newer problems in a more timely manner.


  • Options
    #79
    PropQueries
    Registered Users Posts: 2,203 ✭✭✭PropQueries


    schmittel wrote: »
    Latest mortgage arrears statistics published

    PDHs
    9,591 accounts were overdue by between 2 and 5 years
    11,936 accounts in arrears by between 5 and 10 years
    4,701 were in arrears greater than 10 years

    Or to put it another way, approximately 5.25 billion in mortgage debt that is not being paid.

    So as long as these mortgage holders enjoy the use of the property that is 5.25 billion in free credit - i.e there is no cost to holding that debt.

    Plenty of people comment that because of the CB lending rules the market is not being propped up by easy credit.

    That is true of new mortgage holders, but there is a fair chunk of easy credit propping up the market nonetheless. And this is just PDHs - there is another slug of arrears in the BTL sector, though not quite as large.

    As long as people are happy to continue subsidising the above, then I guess governments will continue as we are now and just try and unwind this ever so slowly.

    But if there is a change in mood this could unravel very quickly. Another potential headwind for property.

    I think the problem which hasn't been addressed is that the mortgage market is designed for a jobs for life economy which doesn't exist anymore outside of we all know who.

    If you could hand back your keys and re-apply for a mortgage again in 3 years with the debt wiped from your record, not many would put up a fight against repossessions. It would also align the interests of home buyers, the banks and the wider economy.

    It only matters in todays regulatory environment as once you miss a payment, you're basically blacklisted for the rest of your productive life, which makes no sense in an economy where the majority of home buyers will go through several periods of financial hardship.


  • Options
    #80
    hometruths
    Registered Users, Subscribers Posts: 5,798 ✭✭✭hometruths


    Hubertj wrote: »
    This is both a commercial and political issue. I fully agree with you on the above but the will to change it is not there. Current government can’t do it as the bombers and trots would go mad. If the bombers get into power there is no way they can change it either as they are also cowards.

    From reading up on it a bit the banks did some good work in reducing the number in arrears using various mechanisms but it took a long time to get there. Hopefully they can use that experience to deal with some of the newer problems in a more timely manner.

    This is another issue that demographics might come into play. If younger voters who can't buy property start to agitate that houses are more expensive and mortgage rates are higher because of this, the mood might change.

    I suspect a lot of these accounts are jumbo mortgages - Pamela Flood type of affairs. If the bombers and trots were clever they could turn it to their advantage.

    The various mechanisms are some variation of extend and pretend. On top of the arrears figures there are a heap of these restructured arrangements. Whilst these help the stats the underlying problem remains - i.e higher prices and mortgage rates.


  • Options
    #81
    hometruths
    Registered Users, Subscribers Posts: 5,798 ✭✭✭hometruths


    PropQueries wrote: »
    I think the problem which hasn't been addressed is that the mortgage market is designed for a jobs for life economy which doesn't exist anymore outside of we all know who.

    If you could hand back your keys and re-apply for a mortgage again in 3 years with the debt wiped from your record, not many would put up a fight against repossessions. It would also align the interests of home buyers, the banks and the wider economy.

    It only matters in todays regulatory environment as once you miss a payment, you're basically blacklisted for the rest of your productive life, which makes no sense in an economy where the majority of home buyers will go through several periods of financial hardship.

    Totally agree. I'd be in favour of removing the CB lending limits and allowing mortgage holders to hand back the keys, and let the bank take the hit for the arrears.

    I think you'd find if the banks were going to be on the hook for amounts in default they'd be pretty handy about regulating the lending limits themselves.


  • Advertisement
  • Options
    #82
    hometruths
    Registered Users, Subscribers Posts: 5,798 ✭✭✭hometruths


    Actually thinking about my previous two posts, therein lies the political solution.

    Imagine if a party stepped up and said here's our plan to overhaul the mortgage process:

    scrap the CB lending limits
    allow buyers to borrow as much as the bank will be willing to lend them
    allow banks to take rent payments into account as well as savings
    if the borrower gets into arrears they can hand the keys back to bank
    this will increase competition and reduce rates

    BUT in order to do this we will have to overhaul the repossession process, here's our plan:

    repossessions will be accelerated on a case by case basis. For example mortgages that owe 1 million, have 5 spare beds, and have not paid anything in 10 years will be first on the list.

    All repossessions will be means tested with those most easily able to afford a change in circumstances will be prioritised.

    If you are in genuine difficulties and in a house that is equivalent of the social housing alternative, we will convert it to social housing.

    i.e nobody who is in dire straits will be homeless.

    I can't imagine anybody would have a problem with the above. In fact I think it would be kind of popular.


  • Options
    #83
    neutral guy
    Closed Accounts Posts: 402 ✭✭neutral guy


    schmittel wrote: »
    Actually thinking about my previous two posts, therein lies the political solution.

    Imagine if a party stepped up and said here's our plan to overhaul the mortgage process:

    scrap the CB lending limits
    allow buyers to borrow as much as the bank will be willing to lend them
    allow banks to take rent payments into account as well as savings
    if the borrower gets into arrears they can hand the keys back to bank
    this will increase competition and reduce rates

    BUT in order to do this we will have to overhaul the repossession process, here's our plan:

    repossessions will be accelerated on a case by case basis. For example mortgages that owe 1 million, have 5 spare beds, and have not paid anything in 10 years will be first on the list.

    All repossessions will be means tested with those most easily able to afford a change in circumstances will be prioritised.

    If you are in genuine difficulties and in a house that is equivalent of the social housing alternative, we will convert it to social housing.

    i.e nobody who is in dire straits will be homeless.

    I can't imagine anybody would have a problem with the above. In fact I think it would be kind of popular.

    Al this will come soon I think.
    Except allow buyers to borrow as much as the bank will be willing to lend them


  • Options
    #84
    Bubbaclaus
    Registered Users Posts: 4,461 ✭✭✭Bubbaclaus


    Retail sales in August 2020 were 6.8% higher than in August 2019. How do the people claiming a massive economy collapse is in process explain that?


  • Options
    #85
    neutral guy
    Closed Accounts Posts: 402 ✭✭neutral guy


    Bubbaclaus wrote: »
    Retail sales in August 2020 were 6.8% higher than in August 2019. How do the people claiming a massive economy collapse is in process explain that?
    People stopped buy food in cafe/restaraunts because they was closed and started buy food in Tesco/Lidl/Aldi.Many other stuff was bought online from irish shops due with problem with delivery from abroad.


  • Options
    #86
    Hubertj
    Registered Users Posts: 2,000 ✭✭✭Hubertj


    schmittel wrote: »
    Actually thinking about my previous two posts, therein lies the political solution.

    Imagine if a party stepped up and said here's our plan to overhaul the mortgage process:

    scrap the CB lending limits
    allow buyers to borrow as much as the bank will be willing to lend them
    allow banks to take rent payments into account as well as savings
    if the borrower gets into arrears they can hand the keys back to bank
    this will increase competition and reduce rates

    BUT in order to do this we will have to overhaul the repossession process, here's our plan:

    repossessions will be accelerated on a case by case basis. For example mortgages that owe 1 million, have 5 spare beds, and have not paid anything in 10 years will be first on the list.

    All repossessions will be means tested with those most easily able to afford a change in circumstances will be prioritised.

    If you are in genuine difficulties and in a house that is equivalent of the social housing alternative, we will convert it to social housing.

    i.e nobody who is in dire straits will be homeless.

    I can't imagine anybody would have a problem with the above. In fact I think it would be kind of popular.

    you've got my vote!


  • Options
    #87
    neutral guy
    Closed Accounts Posts: 402 ✭✭neutral guy


    I found interesting couple things happened in number of days
    At Thursday last week the support of 15K was introduced for first time buyers
    If they will buy property on ghost estate or on middle of anywhere
    Today from media ( independent for sure )
    I got news that people/first time buyers are hovering property on estates outside the Dublin or on ghost estates in Roscommon/Waterford/etc
    I still did not really understand does it vision or illusion
    From last news today Bus Eirean canceling his 3 express bus lines to Cork,Limerick,Belfast
    What I think is just a start and this will affect future property market on many locations


  • Options
    #88
    hometruths
    Registered Users, Subscribers Posts: 5,798 ✭✭✭hometruths


    Bubbaclaus wrote: »
    Retail sales in August 2020 were 6.8% higher than in August 2019. How do the people claiming a massive economy collapse is in process explain that?

    The increase largely explained by a big jump in a few sectors:
    The volume of retail sales was higher in August 2020 compared to the same period of last year in Electrical Goods (+26.5%), Hardware, Paint & Glass (+26.2%), Furniture & Lighting (+26.1%)

    I suspect August is not traditionally a bumper month for these goods.

    But of course maybe the new normal is we'll all be out shopping for white goods and DIY materials every weekend and this bump in activity will sustain the economy.


  • Options
    #89
    neutral guy
    Closed Accounts Posts: 402 ✭✭neutral guy


    schmittel wrote: »
    The increase largely explained by a big jump in a few sectors:



    I suspect August is not traditionally a bumper month for these goods.

    But of course maybe the new normal is we'll all be out shopping for white goods and DIY materials every weekend and this bump in activity will sustain the economy.
    This goods is normal for March/May not in August.On other side I found many houses painted during the Covid quarantine when people had nothing for to do at home at same time getting free money from government.


  • Options
    #90
    JJJackal
    Registered Users Posts: 1,016 ✭✭✭JJJackal


    neutral guy wrote: »
    I found interesting couple things happened in number of days
    At Thursday last week the support of 15K was introduced for first time buyers
    If they will buy property on ghost estate or on middle of anywhere
    Today from media ( independent for sure )
    I got news that people/first time buyers are hovering property on estates outside the Dublin or on ghost estates in Roscommon/Waterford/etc
    I still did not really understand does it vision or illusion
    From last news today Bus Eirean canceling his 3 express bus lines to Cork,Limerick,Belfast
    What I think is just a start and this will affect future property market on many locations

    Bus Eireann cancelled these services because there are better more efficient services on all lines highlighted

    Some of these services are run in conjunction with Bus Eireann eg GoBe from Dublin to Cork...


  • Advertisement
  • Options
    #91
    JJJackal
    Registered Users Posts: 1,016 ✭✭✭JJJackal


    schmittel wrote: »
    Actually thinking about my previous two posts, therein lies the political solution.

    Imagine if a party stepped up and said here's our plan to overhaul the mortgage process:

    scrap the CB lending limits
    allow buyers to borrow as much as the bank will be willing to lend them
    allow banks to take rent payments into account as well as savings
    if the borrower gets into arrears they can hand the keys back to bank
    this will increase competition and reduce rates

    BUT in order to do this we will have to overhaul the repossession process, here's our plan:

    repossessions will be accelerated on a case by case basis. For example mortgages that owe 1 million, have 5 spare beds, and have not paid anything in 10 years will be first on the list.

    All repossessions will be means tested with those most easily able to afford a change in circumstances will be prioritised.

    If you are in genuine difficulties and in a house that is equivalent of the social housing alternative, we will convert it to social housing.

    i.e nobody who is in dire straits will be homeless.

    I can't imagine anybody would have a problem with the above. In fact I think it would be kind of popular.

    If you could hand back the keys, the banks would maintain the current lending restrictions for alot of people imo.

    The banks would be taking on alot of risk


Advertisement