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Dublin - Significant reduction in rents coming?

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    #1712
    dotsman
    Registered Users Posts: 3,635 ✭✭✭dotsman


    Assetbacked wrote: »
    No way is it comparing apples and oranges. Perhaps with Clancy Quay but not with Mount Argus. It's 4km down the canal to Fresh in GCD and is 1.8km to the Stella in the heart of Rathmines. It's essentially the same price (ie all 3 apartments are 2200 - 2400) but is of a far superior quality to both of those apartments and includes amenities such as the gym.

    There is definitely a comparison to be made, it is not apples and oranges.

    For a young person working in the docklands, there is a massive difference between a 5 minute walk to work and 4km with no public transport option. I live and work in the docklands, and have many colleagues and friends who do (or have done) as well. We wouldn't consider living in Kimmage for a second, even if a large house and the rent was half the price. It's simply not an option for commuting.

    Living in the docklands (Grand Canal Docks or IFSC) is about having work on your doorstep, the pub after work on your doorstep, and a short walk/easy public transport/quick & cheap taxi to & from city centre pubs/restaurants/shops/clubs.


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    #1713
    Assetbacked
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,969 ✭✭✭Assetbacked


    dotsman wrote: »
    For a young person working in the docklands, there is a massive difference between a 5 minute walk to work and 4km with no public transport option. I live and work in the docklands, and have many colleagues and friends who do (or have done) as well. We wouldn't consider living in Kimmage for a second, even if a large house and the rent was half the price. It's simply not an option for commuting.

    Living in the docklands (Grand Canal Docks or IFSC) is about having work on your doorstep, the pub after work on your doorstep, and a short walk/easy public transport/quick & cheap taxi to & from city centre pubs/restaurants/shops/clubs.

    I highlighted apartments in Grand Canal Dock, there is nothing in the IFSC on your doorstep other than the dodgy area by Connolly Station. As such, you have no pub on your doorstep in GCD - in fact, if you live in GCD I bet you go up to Baggot Street, Ranelagh or even the Barge for your pub. Similarly, Camden/Wexford/Harcourt St etc. are essentially the same distance for bars and restaurants but again I bet if you are a professional in the Docklands, you go to Ranelagh for your restaurants quite often. Dublin bike from the canal (which is definitely something a young dockland worker can be using) will get you down to GCD for work in 10/15 mins or you could just walk 40 mins from the apartments to GCD.

    Yes, it is not 5 mins walk to work but for your discretionary socialising it is the same. Therefore, not apples and oranges but a fair enough comparison. For you, being 5 minutes walk to work and having house parties in the same apartment block as you is everything even at the expense of an apartment built in the last 15 years for the same price. Whereas, when I worked in GCD, I was happy to compromise on being 10 mins walk to work (35 minutes where I lived) in order to have a decent place in Dublin 6 closer to the pubs and restaurants.


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    #1714
    beauf
    Closed Accounts Posts: 22,651 ✭✭✭✭beauf


    Some people prioritize the journey time to the thing they do most often over the thing they do least often.


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    #1715
    beauf
    Closed Accounts Posts: 22,651 ✭✭✭✭beauf


    The location still adds value, even if it doesn't for everyone.


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    #1716
    Assetbacked
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,969 ✭✭✭Assetbacked


    beauf wrote: »
    Some people prioritize the journey time to the thing they do most often over the thing they do least often.

    Agreed, but my point is that this is not comparing apples and oranges as there are comparisons to be made. Comparing the journey time is not even like comparing the commute on a train or a Luas to a walk though. It's two lengths of a walk.


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    #1717
    beauf
    Closed Accounts Posts: 22,651 ✭✭✭✭beauf


    Assetbacked wrote: »
    Agreed, but my point is that this is not comparing apples and oranges as there are comparisons to be made. Comparing the journey time is not even like comparing the commute on a train or a Luas to a walk though. It's two lengths of a walk.

    You can make a value judgement based on the compromises you want to make.

    However that has no influence on price the market puts on a property due to its location.

    If the direction a property faces makes a difference in value you can be dang sure a few KM away makes a difference.


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    #1718
    steddyeddy
    Registered Users Posts: 27,564 ✭✭✭✭steddyeddy


    dotsman wrote: »
    For a young person working in the docklands, there is a massive difference between a 5 minute walk to work and 4km with no public transport option. I live and work in the docklands, and have many colleagues and friends who do (or have done) as well. We wouldn't consider living in Kimmage for a second, even if a large house and the rent was half the price. It's simply not an option for commuting.

    Living in the docklands (Grand Canal Docks or IFSC) is about having work on your doorstep, the pub after work on your doorstep, and a short walk/easy public transport/quick & cheap taxi to & from city centre pubs/restaurants/shops/clubs.

    It's really ridiculous to say commuting from Kimmage isn't an option. I commuted there everyday to work in UCD.


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    #1719
    beauf
    Closed Accounts Posts: 22,651 ✭✭✭✭beauf


    I think he meant not an option for them. Not that it isn't an option for others.


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    #1720
    Assetbacked
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,969 ✭✭✭Assetbacked


    On the Docklands apartments, since I was looking on Daft this morning, just highlighting some apartments that are not short term and corporate lets (ie more than 3k per month);

    Price Drops;

    2-bed on Hanover St listed for rent on 9 September for 2800, now asking 2600 (200 price drop in asking - 7% in 2 weeks) https://www.daft.ie/dublin/apartments-for-rent/grand-canal-dock/2-hanover-loft-hanover-street-grand-canal-dock-dublin-2047740/

    1-bed on Hanover Street listed for rent on 8 July for 1850, now asking 1750 (100 price drop in asking - 5.4% in 10 weeks) https://www.daft.ie/dublin/apartments-for-rent/grand-canal-dock/8-the-ivory-building-hanover-street-east-grand-canal-dock-dublin-2048639/

    3-bed at Castleforbes Square listed for rent on 29 August for 2600, now asking for 2400 (200 price drop in asking - 7.7% in 4 weeks) https://www.daft.ie/dublin/apartments-for-rent/ifsc/castleforbes-square-ifsc-dublin-2066713/

    2-bed at Custom House Square listed for rent on 1 September for 2375, now asking for 2195 (180 price drop in asking - 7.6% in 3 weeks) https://www.daft.ie/dublin/apartments-for-rent/ifsc/custom-house-square-lower-mayor-street-ifsc-dublin-2067915/

    1-bed at Grand Canal Residences first listed on 8 September for 2500, now asking for 1950 (price drop 550 in asking - 22% in 2 weeks) https://www.daft.ie/dublin/apartments-for-rent/grand-canal-dock/grand-canal-residences-grand-canal-square-grand-canal-dock-dublin-2071648/

    Not shifting;

    2-bed at Gallery Quay (the one I quoted earlier) has been on Daft since 21st March https://www.daft.ie/dublin/apartments-for-rent/grand-canal-dock/gallery-quay-grand-canal-dock-dublin-2017016/

    2-bed at Custom House Square, IFSC has been listed since May https://www.daft.ie/dublin/apartments-for-rent/ifsc/47-spencer-house-custom-house-square-ifsc-dublin-2028454/

    2-bed at Charlotte Quay for the very reasonable rent (relatively speaking) of 2100, has been listed since 5 August https://www.daft.ie/dublin/apartments-for-rent/grand-canal-dock/the-jessop-charlotte-quay-dock-grand-canal-dock-dublin-2057348/

    1-bed at Mayor Square for the also very reasonable rent of 1525 has been listed since 11 August https://www.daft.ie/dublin/apartments-for-rent/ifsc/85-spencer-house-custom-house-square-ifsc-dublin-2059267/

    2-bed at Mayor Square for the below average rent of 1845 has not shifted in 2 weeks of being listed https://www.daft.ie/dublin/apartments-for-rent/ifsc/shannon-house-custom-house-square-ifsc-dublin-2071594/


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    #1721
    dotsman
    Registered Users Posts: 3,635 ✭✭✭dotsman


    Assetbacked wrote: »
    there is nothing in the IFSC on your doorstep other than the dodgy area by Connolly Station.

    What???

    Half a dozen pubs (not counting hotel bars)
    More Restaurants & Takeaways than I can count
    Spars/Fresh/Marks
    Supervalu/Dunnes just down the road.
    The Point Depot
    Medical Centre
    Dental Clinic
    Cinema
    A luas stop on your doorstep (and green luas only a 7 minute walk (or 2 stops on Red line), giving you the quickest and easiest access to huge parts of Dublin City.
    Dart on your doorstep.
    10 minute walk to Henry Street
    15 minute walk to Grafton Street
    Assetbacked wrote: »
    As such, you have no pub on your doorstep in GCD -
    You mean Bar H, The Marker, HQ, The Ferryman, Brewdog, The Gasworks & Slatterys, The Bath etc
    Or a quick walk to Clarkes/The Oarsman?
    Or a quick walk up to Becky's and the Gingerman?

    I mean, ffs, The Gasworks is right in front on the Pembroke Apartments you linked to. You literally fall out of the door of one and into the door of the other. I can't think of a better definition of having a "pub on your doorstep".
    Assetbacked wrote: »
    in fact, if you live in GCD I bet you go up to Baggot Street, Ranelagh or even the Barge for your pub.
    Why the fcuk would one want to go to Ranelagh?

    Baggot Street is a few minutes walk away, so might go there to meet friends working/living there, but it is only the odd occasion.

    As for the Barge? Haven't been there in years. And when I did go, it was about once a year. Why are you pointing out the barge of all places???
    Assetbacked wrote: »
    Similarly, Camden/Wexford/Harcourt St etc. are essentially the same distance for bars and restaurants but again I bet if you are a professional in the Docklands, you go to Ranelagh for your restaurants quite often.
    What is your obsession with Ranelagh? Why do you think people would travel away from the city to go to Ranelagh? I haven't been to Ranelagh since I lived in Donnybrook years ago, and have never had a reason to return.
    Assetbacked wrote: »
    Dublin bike from the canal (which is definitely something a young dockland worker can be using) will get you down to GCD for work in 10/15 mins or you could just walk 40 mins from the apartments to GCD.
    In the wind and the rain? On a dark night? A lot of people don't want to cycle. And there is no comparing a 40 minute commute to a 5 minute commute - I'm really not sure why you can't understand that.
    Assetbacked wrote: »
    Yes, it is not 5 mins walk to work but for your discretionary socialising it is the same. Therefore, not apples and oranges but a fair enough comparison. For you, being 5 minutes walk to work and having house parties in the same apartment block as you is everything even at the expense of an apartment built in the last 15 years for the same price.
    For many young professionals, their socialising is with after work crowd, and tends to be in the same place as their work location.

    If one worked in Kimmage, it would make sense to socialise in Kimmage. But we are talking about the docklands. Where a ton of young professionals work. And they will do a decent portion of their socialising in that area as well. A huge proportion of them have zero desire to live in Kimmage and commute. I'm not sure why you have trouble understanding that.

    P.S. An apartment being new is not necessarily a good thing. By far, the best apartments in Dublin are old ('60s etc). For an apartment, the newer it is the more you can assume it was built to sell and not to live in. P.S. There are a ton of brand spanking new apartments in the docklands as well. You might have noticed that is where all the cranes have been over the number of years?
    Assetbacked wrote: »
    Whereas, when I worked in GCD, I was happy to compromise on being 10 mins walk to work (35 minutes where I lived) in order to have a decent place in Dublin 6 closer to the pubs and restaurants.
    I'm delighted for you. And living in Dublin 6, you can live out whatever Ranelagh fantasies you have. But most people don't feel the same as you. And that's ok. Life would be boring if everyone was the same.


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    #1722
    Assetbacked
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,969 ✭✭✭Assetbacked


    dotsman wrote: »
    What???

    Half a dozen pubs (not counting hotel bars)
    More Restaurants & Takeaways than I can count
    Spars/Fresh/Marks
    Supervalu/Dunnes just down the road.
    The Point Depot
    Medical Centre
    Dental Clinic
    Cinema
    A luas stop on your doorstep (and green luas only a 7 minute walk (or 2 stops on Red line), giving you the quickest and easiest access to huge parts of Dublin City.
    Dart on your doorstep.
    10 minute walk to Henry Street
    15 minute walk to Grafton Street

    Other than after work on a Friday, those pubs are either closed or devoid of people. The Point and the nearby shopping centre contribute to the ghost town vibe to that part of the IFSC (together with the massive construction sites). A medical/dental centre and some supermarkets? Amenities, sure but not a reason to claim the place isn't dead. Considering the university and offices are all WFH, the place must be completely empty of people 24/7 these days. Luckily you are close to transport so you can visit other areas of the city.
    dotsman wrote: »
    You mean Bar H, The Marker, HQ, The Ferryman, Brewdog, The Gasworks & Slatterys, The Bath etc
    Or a quick walk to Clarkes/The Oarsman?
    Or a quick walk up to Becky's and the Gingerman?

    I mean, ffs, The Gasworks is right in front on the Pembroke Apartments you linked to. You literally fall out of the door of one and into the door of the other. I can't think of a better definition of having a "pub on your doorstep".

    Can't say most of those are good bars. Bar H? Only busy for theatre crowds. Brewdog is more of an after work during the week kind of place and is new so cannot judge yet. Gasworks is a hotel bar and is devoid of atmosphere (though I like the selection of beers). Becky Morgans? No one who has ever rented in GCD has been there more than once - you may as well include the Patrick Pearse if that place is included. Bath Avenue and Gingerman, yes they are decent pubs.

    dotsman wrote: »
    As for the Barge? Haven't been there in years. And when I did go, it was about once a year. Why are you pointing out the barge of all places???

    I have met friends there during the summer who would be the GCD-centric renters as they felt it was the place to go when the weather was good during the summer.
    dotsman wrote: »
    In the wind and the rain? On a dark night? A lot of people don't want to cycle. And there is no comparing a 40 minute commute to a 5 minute commute - I'm really not sure why you can't understand that.

    Don't be so dramatic - 40 minute walk along the canal for about 80% of it is not as grim as it sounds, even in the rain. 15 minute cycle otherwise.
    dotsman wrote: »
    If one worked in Kimmage, it would make sense to socialise in Kimmage. But we are talking about the docklands. Where a ton of young professionals work. And they will do a decent portion of their socialising in that area as well. A huge proportion of them have zero desire to live in Kimmage and commute. I'm not sure why you have trouble understanding that.

    Kimmage? Mount Argus is Harold's Cross. Rathmines would be your social hang out if you were a professional living there, followed by Camden St and Ranelagh.
    dotsman wrote: »
    P.S. An apartment being new is not necessarily a good thing. By far, the best apartments in Dublin are old ('60s etc). For an apartment, the newer it is the more you can assume it was built to sell and not to live in. P.S. There are a ton of brand spanking new apartments in the docklands as well. You might have noticed that is where all the cranes have been over the number of years?

    These are corporate lets so are not counted for our discussion except maybe to argue for evidence of the desolation in the evenings and on weekends in GCD.
    dotsman wrote: »
    Why the fcuk would one want to go to Ranelagh?

    What is your obsession with Ranelagh? Why do you think people would travel away from the city to go to Ranelagh? I haven't been to Ranelagh since I lived in Donnybrook years ago, and have never had a reason to return.

    I'm delighted for you. And living in Dublin 6, you can live out whatever Ranelagh fantasies you have. But most people don't feel the same as you. And that's ok. Life would be boring if everyone was the same.

    Speaking for myself and the well paid tech people I've known from abroad who lived in GCD, they were more likely to socialise around Bath Avenue/Baggot St/Ranelagh for pubs, restaurants and cafes. I don't have a hard on for Ranelagh, in fact I'm not even a fan of any of the pubs there and the restaurants are generally basic compared to the price (Dillingers, Tribeca, Marios, Pinocchio).


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    #1723
    JamesMason
    Registered Users Posts: 152 ✭✭JamesMason


    JimmyVik wrote: »
    There is a site opposite me with about 20 houses and one about 1 km down the road with about 50 houses. None have been touched since March.


    In fact a couple of weeks ago the builders came in with trucks and were taking stuff out of the houses and loading them onto trucks.
    My mother phones the cops. Thought they were robbing the site, but it was the builders.
    That is probably happening at sites all over the country. If so, a lot of people are in deep s***


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    #1724
    polaco
    Registered Users Posts: 58 ✭✭polaco


    JamesMason wrote: »
    That is probably happening at sites all over the country. If so, a lot of people are in deep s***

    I dont think people are in deep s****
    I know few people in construction they saying is very busy
    Another guy is car dealer very busy as well.
    Shop are getting busy again online sale is up
    On rental market supply improved but prices not that much TBH


    "The largest share of first-time buyers yet seen took out mortgages last month as banks lent €946 million.

    Figures released by banks indicate mortgage lending is beginning to recover after a slump earlier this year due to the pandemic."
    https://www.breakingnews.ie/business/major-share-of-first-time-buyers-take-out-mortgage-as-lending-recovers-1018941.html


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    #1725
    PropQueries
    Registered Users Posts: 2,203 ✭✭✭PropQueries


    Ok, with AirBnB effectively gone (reported at c.5,000 houses and apartments in Co. Dublin pre-covid) and the demand for student accommodation must also be well down.

    Why haven't rents/prices of properties in Dublin and other major cities in Ireland dropped yet? But, it has been a short period of time.


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    #1726
    Pelezico
    Registered Users Posts: 681 ✭✭✭Pelezico


    PropQueries wrote: »
    Ok, with AirBnB effectively gone (reported at c.5,000 houses and apartments in Co. Dublin pre-covid) and the demand for student accommodation must also be well down.

    Why haven't rents/prices of properties in Dublin and other major cities in Ireland dropped yet? But, it has been a short period of time.

    Rents are not falling because that will have implications for their ability to rise again.

    So rents will remain static but watch vacancy rates soar.


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    #1727
    OwlsZat
    Registered Users Posts: 1,510 ✭✭✭OwlsZat


    JimmyVik wrote: »
    There is a site opposite me with about 20 houses and one about 1 km down the road with about 50 houses. None have been touched since March.


    In fact a couple of weeks ago the builders came in with trucks and were taking stuff out of the houses and loading them onto trucks.
    My mother phones the cops. Thought they were robbing the site, but it was the builders.

    What part of the world is that?


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    #1728
    PommieBast
    Registered Users Posts: 2,576 ✭✭✭PommieBast


    PropQueries wrote: »
    Why haven't rents/prices of properties in Dublin and other major cities in Ireland dropped yet? But, it has been a short period of time.
    There's a whole thread on Dublin rental prices. In short there are some big discounts but they are still somewhat ahead of the curve.


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    #1729
    bobbyy gee
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 1,306 ✭✭✭bobbyy gee


    Airbnb damages rental market

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/21/world/europe/airbnb-dublin-rent.html


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    #1730
    Hubertj
    Registered Users Posts: 2,000 ✭✭✭Hubertj


    The Belly wrote: »
    One lockdown after another coming. Don't know whats going on with the 3rd level sector but between that and zero tourism prices won't hold firm for very long in the rental sector.

    That’s good for the market though. More vacant units gives people more choice as well as driving prices down. Hopefully it will also put an end to some of the horror stories we read about in the paper with 15-20 sharing a house, 4 to a room and all that.


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    #1731
    Saudades
    Registered Users Posts: 378 ✭✭Saudades


    Pelezico wrote: »
    Rents are not falling because that will have implications for their ability to rise again.

    So rents will remain static but watch vacancy rates soar.

    How long can this last for though? Perhaps landlords are waiting for the RPZ legislation to expire on 31 December 2021. Are they willing and able to keep their properties vacant for another 15 months....


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    #1732
    Edgware
    Registered Users Posts: 5,875 ✭✭✭Edgware


    PropQueries wrote: »
    Ok, with AirBnB effectively gone (reported at c.5,000 houses and apartments in Co. Dublin pre-covid) and the demand for student accommodation must also be well down.

    Why haven't rents/prices of properties in Dublin and other major cities in Ireland dropped yet? But, it has been a short period of time.


    Because the amateur landlords have not grasped the Law of Supply and Demand and insist on getting the "market rent". They do not want to accept that the "market rent" is what the market is willing to pay and can rise or fall.

    Two cases I know both relating to 2 bed apartments in South Dublin.
    1. Advertised six weeks ago at 2,300. Still vacant and few enquiries
    2. Advertised 4 weeks ago at 1900. Taken after 4 days by a family moving from a 2 bed 300 dearer in same estate.

    Apartments are like taxis. Not earning unless occupied


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    #1733
    Dav010
    Registered Users Posts: 14,004 ✭✭✭✭Dav010


    Edgware wrote: »
    Because the amateur landlords have not grasped the Law of Supply and Demand and insist on getting the "market rent". They do not want to accept that the "market rent" is what the market is willing to pay and can rise or fall.

    Two cases I know both relating to 2 bed apartments in South Dublin.
    1. Advertised six weeks ago at 2,300. Still vacant and few enquiries
    2. Advertised 4 weeks ago at 1900. Taken after 4 days by a family moving from a 2 bed 300 dearer in same estate.

    Apartments are like taxis. Not earning unless occupied

    You don’t understand RPZ’s do you?

    Rents cannot rise based on demand, and they are not falling as much as they should because LLs know it may take years to go back up even when demand picks up again.

    It will take 5 years for the 1900 to recover to 2300 level.


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    #1734
    Claw Hammer
    Registered Users Posts: 6,160 ✭✭✭Claw Hammer


    Dav010 wrote: »
    You don’t understand RPZ’s do you?

    Rents cannot rise based on demand, and they are not falling as much as they should because LLs know it may take years to go back up even when demand picks up again.

    It will take 5 years for the 1900 to recover to 2300 level.

    What makes you think the market rent will rise to 2,300 before that? How long before that will the market rent be at or above 2,300?
    Will the loss occasioned by getting no rent at all for a period of time be recovered?
    If the market rent does not reach 2,300 ijn 5 years the place will have been empty and earned nothing for 5 years!
    How stupid is that?


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    #1735
    Pkiernan
    Registered Users Posts: 4,315 ✭✭✭Pkiernan


    Imagine if tenants could be fined 10 grand for illegally insisting on lower rent!


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    #1736
    Claw Hammer
    Registered Users Posts: 6,160 ✭✭✭Claw Hammer


    Pkiernan wrote: »
    Imagine if tenants could be fined 10 grand for illegally insisting on lower rent!

    They wouldn't pay the fine, they have no assets to the escheat to the state in satisfaction so they would be brought at taxpayers expense to jail and almost immediately brought home again at taxpayers expense.


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    #1737
    NuMarvel
    Registered Users Posts: 3,279 ✭✭✭NuMarvel


    Pkiernan wrote: »
    Imagine if tenants could be fined 10 grand for illegally insisting on lower rent!

    Imagine thinking there would ever be a law making it illegal to ask for lower rent in the first place.


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    #1738
    Dav010
    Registered Users Posts: 14,004 ✭✭✭✭Dav010


    Claw Hammer wrote: »
    What makes you think the market rent will rise to 2,300 before that? How long before that will the market rent be at or above 2,300?
    Will the loss occasioned by getting no rent at all for a period of time be recovered?
    If the market rent does not reach 2,300 ijn 5 years the place will have been empty and earned nothing for 5 years!
    How stupid is that?

    Renters will go back into the market when colleges/offices return to normal, Airbnb’s will return when tourism resumes, not enough properties are being built to increase supply when normal service resumes, that is why I think rents will rise again over the next 12 months.

    What are the chances of rents rising in the next 12 months? What is the benefit of RPZs now? Do away with them and LLs will drop rents knowing that they can increase them when demand returns.


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    #1739
    Dav010
    Registered Users Posts: 14,004 ✭✭✭✭Dav010


    NuMarvel wrote: »
    Imagine thinking there would ever be a law making it illegal to ask for lower rent in the first place.

    I doubt many envisaged it being illegal to ask for market rate until it was.


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    #1740
    NuMarvel
    Registered Users Posts: 3,279 ✭✭✭NuMarvel


    Dav010 wrote: »
    I doubt many envisaged it being illegal to ask for market rate until it was.

    Price ceilings and floors aren't new concepts.


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    #1741
    Dav010
    Registered Users Posts: 14,004 ✭✭✭✭Dav010


    NuMarvel wrote: »
    Price ceilings and floors aren't new concepts.

    They were in Ireland.


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