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Dublin - Significant reduction in rents coming?

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    #1682
    Hubertj
    Registered Users Posts: 2,000 ✭✭✭Hubertj


    brisan wrote: »
    I have only been in one and it had a small courtyard
    Most have been extended over the years
    I seen one on DAFT with a small garden ,most are courtyards though
    in the fifth picture in that ad you can see a small courtyard
    Down to 1690 as and from today

    Ah see it now thank you. Seems strange, nice area, place looks pretty nice. Price. Sounds good for a 2 bed house in a nice are. You could move from a €2k ish 2 bed apartment to a 2 bed house and save €300 a month.


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    #1683
    brisan
    Registered Users Posts: 2,242 ✭✭✭brisan


    Hubertj wrote: »
    Ah see it now thank you. Seems strange, nice area, place looks pretty nice. Price. Sounds good for a 2 bed house in a nice are. You could move from a €2k ish 2 bed apartment to a 2 bed house and save €300 a month.

    Realistic landlord or one with a pressing need to pay the mortgage


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    #1684
    Ozark707
    Registered Users Posts: 942 ✭✭✭Ozark707


    Assetbacked wrote: »
    Similarly, seeing really nice new builds/newly renovated with the full amenities, high spec fittings etc offering two beds for 2300 starts to put downward preessure on those Celtic Tiger era Sandyford and Grand Canal / Spencer Dock 2 beds for €2k+.

    These are two developments which are pretty accessible to the city centre/Docklands, certainly by bike (15/20 mins);

    Mount Argus, Harold's Cross 2 beds from 2300 https://www.daft.ie/dublin/multi-units-for-rent/mount-argus-road-harolds-cross-dublin-161860/

    Clancy Quay 2300+ for 2 beds https://www.daft.ie/dublin/apartments-for-rent/dublin-8/two-bedroom-apartment-clancy-quay-by-kennedy-wilson-south-circular-road-dublin-8-dublin-2046047/

    By comparison, these places look like poor value;

    Gallery Quay, GCD 2400 https://www.daft.ie/dublin/apartments-for-rent/grand-canal-dock/gallery-quay-grand-canal-dock-dublin-2017016/

    Pembroke Square (beside Google) 2200 https://www.daft.ie/dublin/apartments-for-rent/grand-canal-dock/pembroke-square-grand-canal-dock-dublin-2076113/

    It looks like we are moving towards 2K for a high spec 2 bed in a nice part of Dublin. I think the Clancy Quay ones for 2.3k might be a push. I think those Mt Argus ones have been on for months now so I am assuming they are too pricey as well.

    I know of a recent let in the docklands of a nice place (with parking) for 2.1k.


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    #1685
    Ozark707
    Registered Users Posts: 942 ✭✭✭Ozark707


    I know this is London based but still interesting to see the state of the rental market now over there.

    https://www.theguardian.com/money/2020/sep/20/private-rents-plunge-covid-19-decimates-lettings-market-workplace-space-gardens


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    #1686
    Assetbacked
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,969 ✭✭✭Assetbacked


    Ozark707 wrote: »
    I know this is London based but still interesting to see the state of the rental market now over there.

    https://www.theguardian.com/money/2020/sep/20/private-rents-plunge-covid-19-decimates-lettings-market-workplace-space-gardens

    FT also had an opinion article yesterday on it; https://www.ft.com/content/e8af0787-7616-4a6b-8bc7-20b14327f3bf

    Some points from the article;

    - When demand falls, prices do not follow in lockstep, since most sellers simply sit on their hands rather than offer their property to the market at a discount. Even some distressed sellers can be granted a stay of execution when mortgage lenders choose forbearance over repossession. As a result, a downturn in sentiment is far more likely to be expressed initially as a drop in transaction activity, rather than prices. 

    - In London there is a close correlation between rental growth, and migration and jobs growth.

    - House prices in London are rising — but rents have dropped in the past 12 months. Its rental index for the capital shows a fall of 2.7 per cent in the year to the end of July, a decline that is likely to grow to 5 per cent by the end of the year.

    - At first glance, tourism should not affect the rents charged in the conventional market for long lets. But as travel ground to a near halt in the pandemic, landlords of Airbnb-style short-term rental properties have switched to offering longer residential leases, bringing significant supply to the mainstream market and thereby putting downward pressure on rents.

    - As long as economic trends continue to feed directly into rent levels, tenants in the capital can expect a note of relief, at least, on their strained finances.

    It's also worth noting that the UK has an eviction ban until the end of October and ours is the end of this year so this will obviously have an impact too on the rental market, though who knows how significant. Of course, it doesn't mean it is easy after that to kick out tenants so supply won't dramatically increase overnight. But even if tenants cannot be kicked out easily, other landlords might be eager to take on good tenants and therefore be open to compromising on the rent they will accept.


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    #1687
    Edgware
    Registered Users Posts: 5,875 ✭✭✭Edgware


    There are several developments all over Dublin coming to completion by early 2021 and plenty more on the plans with the build to lets schemes. Just recently read of a 628 apartment development applied for five minutes from Dundrum, Dublin.
    Increased availability has to impact on rents. There is a good supply south of the Grand Canal at the moment with some reduction in rents, though not that big a decrease.
    However with the slow down in the return of students and increased work from homes landlords will be waiting longer to let. Then they will have to decide to be more competitive in their rents or leave the property empty


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    #1688
    Dav010
    Registered Users Posts: 14,061 ✭✭✭✭Dav010


    Edgware wrote: »
    There are several developments all over Dublin coming to completion by early 2021 and plenty more on the plans with the build to lets schemes. Just recently read of a 628 apartment development applied for five minutes from Dundrum, Dublin.
    Increased availability has to impact on rents. There is a good supply south of the Grand Canal at the moment with some reduction in rents, though not that big a decrease.
    However with the slow down in the return of students and increased work from homes landlords will be waiting longer to let. Then they will have to decide to be more competitive in their rents or leave the property empty

    Rent associated with planned new developments will depend to a large extent on whether they are built, if there is oversupply builders will wait, and also whether they are forward financed by an institutional buyer who may leave them empty until rents meet a certain price threshold, which is what is currently happening in some singely owned developments.


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    #1689
    Ozark707
    Registered Users Posts: 942 ✭✭✭Ozark707


    Dav010 wrote: »
    Rent associated with planned new developments will depend to a large extent on whether they are built, if there is oversupply builders will wait, and also whether they are forward financed by an institutional buyer who may leave them empty until rents meet a certain price threshold, which is what is currently happening in some singely owned developments.

    I am guessing a new development would take a minimum of 18 months from when they start to until when they are ready to take tenants? If developers decide to sit on them now it is a good indication they are not expecting any return to pre-covid rent levels in the short to medium term.


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    #1690
    Claw Hammer
    Registered Users Posts: 6,163 ✭✭✭Claw Hammer


    Ozark707 wrote: »
    I am guessing a new development would take a minimum of 18 months from when they start to until when they are ready to take tenants? If developers decide to sit on them now it is a good indication they are not expecting any return to pre-covid rent levels in the short to medium term.

    Currently new developments of all kinds are not breaking ground. Nobody knows if billing will have to stop due to Covid or if sites will have restrictions imposed or if supplies of building materials will be interrupted. That is outside of any consideration of the economic environment when the building is actually complete.


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    #1691
    Edgware
    Registered Users Posts: 5,875 ✭✭✭Edgware


    There are certainly developments in the pipeline where the developer is holding back but there are a lot coming to completion. Will they be sold in one go to a REIT though?


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    #1692
    Claw Hammer
    Registered Users Posts: 6,163 ✭✭✭Claw Hammer


    Edgware wrote: »
    There are certainly developments in the pipeline where the developer is holding back but there are a lot coming to completion. Will they be sold in one go to a REIT though?

    If they are already coming to completion they are presold. The REIT will have provided financing throughout.


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    #1693
    Donald Trump
    Registered Users Posts: 19,108 ✭✭✭✭Donald Trump


    beauf wrote: »


    Sherry FitzGerald said investors are continuing to withdraw from the market. About 32 per cent of all sellers in the first six months of 2020 were selling investment properties while just 12 per cent of purchasers were investors. If this continues throughout the year, the agent said, it would represent the lowest proportion of investors entering the market since 2012.


    Falling rents, falling values, (according to Boards), no timely way of recovering property. Most entering the market are owner occupiers.




    32% of sellers and 12% of purchasers is likely not the same as 32% of units sold and 12% of units bought by investors.


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    #1694
    JimmyVik
    Registered Users Posts: 5,368 ✭✭✭JimmyVik


    Dav010 wrote: »
    Rent associated with planned new developments will depend to a large extent on whether they are built, if there is oversupply builders will wait, and also whether they are forward financed by an institutional buyer who may leave them empty until rents meet a certain price threshold, which is what is currently happening in some singely owned developments.


    There is a site opposite me with about 20 houses and one about 1 km down the road with about 50 houses. None have been touched since March.


    In fact a couple of weeks ago the builders came in with trucks and were taking stuff out of the houses and loading them onto trucks.
    My mother phones the cops. Thought they were robbing the site, but it was the builders.


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    #1695
    Claw Hammer
    Registered Users Posts: 6,163 ✭✭✭Claw Hammer


    Donald Trump wrote: »
    32% of sellers and 12% of purchasers is likely not the same as 32% of units sold and 12% of units bought by investors.

    How so?


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    #1696
    johnnyskeleton
    Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Politics Moderators Posts: 14,477 Mod ✭✭✭✭johnnyskeleton


    Claw Hammer wrote: »
    How so?

    If 100 people sell 100 properties, i.e. 1 property each, and 32 of them are investors, 32% of investors AND 32% of properties, are sold by investors.

    If 100 people buy 125 properties, 88 of them are not investors and buy 1 property each, and 12 are investors and buy 3 properties each, then 12% of them are investors, but ~30% of the properties are bought by investors


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    #1697
    Claw Hammer
    Registered Users Posts: 6,163 ✭✭✭Claw Hammer


    johnnyskeleton wrote: »
    If 100 people sell 100 properties, i.e. 1 property each, and 32 of them are investors, 32% of investors AND 32% of properties, are sold by investors.

    If 100 people buy 125 properties, 88 of them are not investors and buy 1 property each, and 12 are investors and buy 3 properties each, then 12% of them are investors, but ~30% of the properties are bought by investors

    What is the basis for saying that is a likely interpretation of Sherry Fitzgerald's comment?


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    #1698
    Browney7
    Registered Users Posts: 3,099 ✭✭✭Browney7


    Claw Hammer wrote: »
    What is the basis for saying that is a likely interpretation of Sherry Fitzgerald's comment?

    It's more a look at what Sherry Fitzgerald may or may not be saying with the stats they are quoting and how people interpret these.


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    #1699
    Claw Hammer
    Registered Users Posts: 6,163 ✭✭✭Claw Hammer


    Browney7 wrote: »
    It's more a look at what Sherry Fitzgerald may or may not be saying with the stats they are quoting and how people interpret these.

    Yes, but where is the issue of likelihood coming from?


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    #1700
    rocketspocket
    Registered Users Posts: 400 ✭✭rocketspocket


    landlord (institutional) just increased my rent by 4% (in a pressure zone) - they have 100s of empty apartments to fill yet felt that putting the price up for long term tenants is good business. handed in my notice to vacate..


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    #1701
    Smouse156
    Registered Users Posts: 529 ✭✭✭Smouse156


    rocketspocket wrote: »
    landlord (institutional) just increased my rent by 4% (in a pressure zone) - they have 100s of empty apartments to fill yet felt that putting the price up for long term tenants is good business. handed in my notice to vacate..

    The neck of them is amazing! A total rental market collapse is on the cards especially given the rise in the virus and they try this. I’d go back and offer 10-20% below what you were previously paying. Let’s us know if they come back with some counter offer please


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    #1702
    rocketspocket
    Registered Users Posts: 400 ✭✭rocketspocket


    Smouse156 wrote: »
    The neck of them is amazing! A total rental market collapse is on the cards especially given the rise in the virus and they try this. I’d go back and offer 10-20% below what you were previously paying. Let’s us know if they come back with some counter offer please

    They said they could go back to talk to the landlord to see if they would review the increase - i said not to bother & only ever considered moving when I got notification they were to increase the rent.

    If anything they did me a favour as they made me sit back & think is it really worth paying pre-covid city centre rental prices when i'm working full time from home.


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    #1703
    Browney7
    Registered Users Posts: 3,099 ✭✭✭Browney7


    rocketspocket wrote: »
    landlord (institutional) just increased my rent by 4% (in a pressure zone) - they have 100s of empty apartments to fill yet felt that putting the price up for long term tenants is good business. handed in my notice to vacate..

    See this is where the legislation on reviews will give REITs power to try squeeze rent increases out of people. If they have a block of 100 apartments and if they have ten of them empty, can they presumably show the three apartments as being directly comparable and "available" for rent and try squeeze an increase out of an incumbent tenant?

    If you have a sweet deal below market rent it's presumably a prudent course of action to accept whereas if you're paying 2k and they are seeking 2.2k for new rentals but you see local competition as being 1.8k, it would be worth moving. That or else open a dispute with the RTB and cite three comparable properties elsewhere.

    If your gripe is "feckin REIT putting my rent up (that is cheapish in the wider context) in the middle of a pandemic" I wouldn't be too rash if I were you. Best of luck in whatever you decide though!


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    #1704
    rocketspocket
    Registered Users Posts: 400 ✭✭rocketspocket


    Browney7 wrote: »
    See this is where the legislation on reviews will give REITs power to try squeeze rent increases out of people. If they have a block of 100 apartments and if they have ten of them empty, can they presumably show the three apartments as being directly comparable and "available" for rent and try squeeze an increase out of an incumbent tenant?

    If you have a sweet deal below market rent it's presumably a prudent course of action to accept whereas if you're paying 2k and they are seeking 2.2k for new rentals but you see local competition as being 1.8k, it would be worth moving. That or else open a dispute with the RTB and cite three comparable properties elsewhere.

    If your gripe is "feckin REIT putting my rent up (that is cheapish in the wider context) in the middle of a pandemic" I wouldn't be too rash if I were you. Best of luck in whatever you decide though!

    I'm paying what they are advertising the new-builds for (maybe 100EUR less) so deffo not on a sweet deal and the increase will bring it on power with that price - anyway, i'm not annoyed with them at all as they will have made sweeping decision to increase 4% year on year and are prepared to lose a few people like me in doing so & i have seen a place 50% less @ the same spec if i am prepared to move out of the city.. no need to be in a city when there if fok all happening - can't even go for a pint..


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    #1705
    beauf
    Closed Accounts Posts: 22,651 ✭✭✭✭beauf


    Donald Trump wrote: »
    32% of sellers and 12% of purchasers is likely not the same as 32% of units sold and 12% of units bought by investors.

    Obviously. But that wasn't the context of the quote. The context was the number of investors falling and owner occupiers increasing.

    If always possible that you have one or two investors who own 80% of the property. But since we know the vast majority of LL have one property, that kinda shift is unlikely.


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    #1706
    brisan
    Registered Users Posts: 2,242 ✭✭✭brisan


    lcwill wrote: »
    If I had a property rented out for 1400 and the tenants left, but I could rent again it for 1100, I would be down 3,600 a year in rent but potentially 45,000 in the value of the property if I tried to sell it and the purchaser was going to be stuck at the same rent level - as they would be under current legislation (1400 a month at 8% yield gives a value of 210,000, 1,100 a month at 8% yield gives a value of 165,000).

    Maybe just maybe the purchaser would live in it as it would be their only property.
    Crazy I know but it happens and the purchaser would not give a flying monkey weather its worth 1k or 2k rent


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    #1707
    rightmove
    Registered Users Posts: 992 ✭✭✭rightmove


    brisan wrote: »
    Maybe just maybe the purchaser would live in it as it would be their only property.
    Crazy I know but it happens and the purchaser would not give a flying monkey weather its worth 1k or 2k rent

    the problem is the property is devalued. If you have a section of potential buyers not interested you probably will not reach the maximum market value. This is why a case was taken in the early 80's against rent controls and they won. They were judged to be unconstitutional as it effected the value of your property


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    #1708
    dotsman
    Registered Users Posts: 3,635 ✭✭✭dotsman


    Assetbacked wrote: »
    Similarly, seeing really nice new builds/newly renovated with the full amenities, high spec fittings etc offering two beds for 2300 starts to put downward preessure on those Celtic Tiger era Sandyford and Grand Canal / Spencer Dock 2 beds for €2k+.

    These are two developments which are pretty accessible to the city centre/Docklands, certainly by bike (15/20 mins);

    Mount Argus, Harold's Cross 2 beds from 2300 https://www.daft.ie/dublin/multi-units-for-rent/mount-argus-road-harolds-cross-dublin-161860/

    Clancy Quay 2300+ for 2 beds https://www.daft.ie/dublin/apartments-for-rent/dublin-8/two-bedroom-apartment-clancy-quay-by-kennedy-wilson-south-circular-road-dublin-8-dublin-2046047/

    By comparison, these places look like poor value;

    Gallery Quay, GCD 2400 https://www.daft.ie/dublin/apartments-for-rent/grand-canal-dock/gallery-quay-grand-canal-dock-dublin-2017016/

    Pembroke Square (beside Google) 2200 https://www.daft.ie/dublin/apartments-for-rent/grand-canal-dock/pembroke-square-grand-canal-dock-dublin-2076113/

    You are comparing apples and oranges here. The Docklands are a far more desirable/in-demand area. You may as well be comparing apartments in Azerbaijan.

    If I am working in the Docklands, I would far prefer to live in those last 2 apartments, and be willing to pay significantly more, than the former 2.


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    #1709
    Claw Hammer
    Registered Users Posts: 6,163 ✭✭✭Claw Hammer


    rightmove wrote: »


    the problem is the property is devalued. If you have a section of potential buyers not interested you probably will not reach the maximum market value. This is why a case was taken in the early 80's against rent controls and they won. They were judged to be unconstitutional as it effected the value of your property
    What was decided abount rent controls.
    "those provisions constituted an unjust attack on the property rights of certain landlords contrary to Article 40, s. 3, sub-s. 2, of the Constitution since those provisions restricted the exercise of the property rights of one group of citizens for the benefit of another group in a manner which failed to provide compensation for the first group and which disregarded the financial capacity or needs of the members of the groups"


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    #1710
    Assetbacked
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,969 ✭✭✭Assetbacked


    dotsman wrote: »
    You are comparing apples and oranges here. The Docklands are a far more desirable/in-demand area. You may as well be comparing apartments in Azerbaijan.

    If I am working in the Docklands, I would far prefer to live in those last 2 apartments, and be willing to pay significantly more, than the former 2.

    No way is it comparing apples and oranges. Perhaps with Clancy Quay but not with Mount Argus. It's 4km down the canal to Fresh in GCD and is 1.8km to the Stella in the heart of Rathmines. It's essentially the same price (ie all 3 apartments are 2200 - 2400) but is of a far superior quality to both of those apartments and includes amenities such as the gym.

    There is definitely a comparison to be made, it is not apples and oranges.


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    #1711
    beauf
    Closed Accounts Posts: 22,651 ✭✭✭✭beauf


    You generally get more for your buck as you go out of town.

    I only know the Docklands area. Seems to have a lot of expensively dressed international tenants and students I assume working in the finance, banking and tech companies near by.


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