What will the economy look like in 6 months time?

Roger the cabin boy wrote: »

Are you saying governments don't take any care or notice of the people they govern?

That's the world population. Largely driven by the 3rd world. You think Africa is leading the policy on this? Or is it the aging Asian, European and North American countries?

salonfire wrote: »

From the last nurses' strike where they walked away from dying cancer patients to further line their own pockets, yes.

Absolute bollocks

Roger the cabin boy wrote: »

55% unemployed in the state atm.


55%.

More than half the working population.

55% of the labor force are supported by the (ever dwindling pool of) taxpayers in some way. A small but pertinent difference.

salonfire wrote: »

You did ask which is more important, saving lives or money (the economy).

The nurses, already not among the low paid, chose money.

If you don't like the answer, you shouldn't have asked the question.

its clearly obvious you re a free market libertarian, i.e. pre-programmed private sector good, public sector bad, but lets start talking about the inefficiencies of the private sector and the so called free market!

salonfire wrote: »

I answered the question that was asked.

You should answer the question with an appropriate and valid example. This is neither.

salonfire wrote: »

You did ask which is more important, saving lives or money (the economy).

The nurses, already not among the low paid, chose money.

If you don't like the answer, you shouldn't have asked the question.

Nurses are only one part of the heath services, its vast including lots of social care support in the community.

mariaalice wrote: »

I am positive enough to think that the economy will recover but perhaps go in a different direction.

I also think it will be recovered maybe not to the extent pre covid but will be better then most people think.
Assuming there's no big 2nd wave of course.
I'm under no illusion though the budget this year will be bad for all of us.

Dorakman wrote: »

It’s early days yet of covid-19, however the past couple of days the number of new cases have been in or around 200-250. If all goes well, and the curve is indeed starting to flatten, it begs the question of how our economy will cope? Will this be a short lived depression, which will bounce back relatively quickly, or will we be thrown into a 2008 type scenario?

Assume this situation will be at least 3x worse than 2008.

Most experts predict it will be at least a year before widely available vaccine, if indeed that provides worthwhile immunity. It is possible that a bit sooner we may find treatments that reduce risk. Until then, the whole economy of Ireland and all those ones we trade with are riddled with friction points that disrupt supply chains, value creation and predictability.

For Ireland, a year of severely diminished tourist trade ( an 80%+ retraction ?) will render many pubs & hotels & tour companies non-viable. Many restrictions will render cafes, restaurants, barbers & salons non-viable. The knock-on effects of unemployment, reduced discretionary income, loans/mortgages that cannot be serviced will inevitably lead to severe austerity measures.

Resilient sectors (e.g. software) will do ok - but very hard financial challenges will be created that are hard to resolve.

turbot wrote: »

Assume this situation will be at least 3x worse than 2008.

Most experts predict it will be at least a year before widely available vaccine, if indeed that provides worthwhile immunity. It is possible that a bit sooner we may find treatments that reduce risk. Until then, the whole economy of Ireland and all those ones we trade with are riddled with friction points that disrupt supply chains, value creation and predictability.

For Ireland, a year of severely diminished tourist trade ( an 80%+ retraction ?) will render many pubs & hotels & tour companies non-viable. Many restrictions will render cafes, restaurants, barbers & salons non-viable. The knock-on effects of unemployment, reduced discretionary income, loans/mortgages that cannot be serviced will inevitably lead to severe austerity measures.

Resilient sectors (e.g. software) will do ok - but very hard financial challenges will be created that are hard to resolve.

Our tourist dependent businesses are screwed.
There will be shag all tourists in this country this year and that will hugely affect not alone areas like Kerry and Galway, but even Dublin.
It might take years for them to recover as travel is going to be hit.
And no matter how many some chomp about "reopening the economy" to save jobs, these tourist dependent businesses will have no customers.

Other areas that depend on discretionary consumer expenditure such as fancy cafes, Nespresso stores, gadget stores, phone shops, beauty salons, spas and event driven businesses dependent on excess business expenditure will be badly hit.
Retailers have had an issue with online competition for a number of years and this closure might just finish some of them all together.
Garages will have a lot of service work to catch up on, but sales of new cars will take a hammering.
Expect motor trade to push for some incentives to help move new cars.

But a fair amount of good old fashioned businesses like barbers, hairdressors will be back because they provide a necessary function.
Builders will be back, we still need housing and thus that has knock on affects for suppliers.

Actually software and IT related companies will also face a hit.
Worldwide business will have contracted and this has knock on affects.
Companies will not be investing in new software if they can help it, no matter how much some of the industry want to push towards continous subscription models.
The likes of laptops, webcams, headsets have been flying out the door over the last couple of months, but sales of these will probably fall off a cliff over the next year.
Likewise with certain medical devices across most major markets.
Besides public health spending will be severely constrained.

jmayo wrote: »

Our tourist dependent businesses are screwed.
There will be shag all tourists in this country this year and that will hugely affect not alone areas like Kerry and Galway, but even Dublin.
It might take years for them to recover as travel is going to be hit.
And no matter how many some chomp about "reopening the economy" to save jobs, these tourist dependent businesses will have no customers.

Other areas that depend on discretionary consumer expenditure such as fancy cafes, Nespresso stores, gadget stores, phone shops, beauty salons, spas and event driven businesses dependent on excess business expenditure will be badly hit.
Retailers have had an issue with online competition for a number of years and this closure might just finish some of them all together.
Garages will have a lot of service work to catch up on, but sales of new cars will take a hammering.
Expect motor trade to push for some incentives to help move new cars.

But a fair amount of good old fashioned businesses like barbers, hairdressors will be back because they provide a necessary function.
Builders will be back, we still need housing and thus that has knock on affects for suppliers.

Actually software and IT related companies will also face a hit.
Worldwide business will have contracted and this has knock on affects.
Companies will not be investing in new software if they can help it, no matter how much some of the industry want to push towards continous subscription models.
The likes of laptops, webcams, headsets have been flying out the door over the last couple of months, but sales of these will probably fall off a cliff over the next year.
Likewise with certain medical devices across most major markets.
Besides public health spending will be severely constrained.

Yup.

This Covid has struck at a high point for our economies, so that bubble is going to deflate pretty significantly. Interestingly, perhaps had it struck 10 years ago at the economic low, the damage would have been far less.

It's not just the mechanics of business which have been hobbled here, Covid is going to significantly changes societies. We are in for a period of significant change and whilst change is good for some, i think its going to be a change for the worse for businesses in general, or at least for this generation until it gets itself back on its feet.

Covid has accelerated the destruction of the workplace ethos by perhaps a generation. WFH is not only not going away, its going to be promoted because companies now know that its both cheaper and more dynamic (ie your job can be done anywhere in the universe once you don't clock in) to have a employee base WFH.
Grasp that, and then grasp what impact that is going to have on the free travel of people. No office means no rush hours, no rush hours mean no cars, no cars mean no petrol stations, no petrol stations means no motor industry (to a degree obv).
Once you knock off the top 20% of the need for people to travel, you murder the access to cheap travel, which will kill tourism, which will kill discretionary spending etc....

All shades of grey obviously, but the pathway is now there and we will be doing much less traveling, spending, buying, etc for the foreseeable future.

I think Covid is a turning point.

Roger the cabin boy wrote: »

Perhaps those in the know, know that that this era of money is truly borked and we are as well just borrowing up as much as we can now as its not going to mean much if a financial reset is afoot.

its impossible to know whats gonna happen, i understand the idea of wide scale debt jubilees, but not convinced its gonna happen, who knows