Sunday 23rd: Potential Storm Discussion

ZX7R · 19-09-2018 11:55pm

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

Models can tend to do a windscreen-wiper pattern from run to run, so I wouldn't be so quick to rule it out (especially as you're quoting the God-Forsaken Shíte). With such a strong Jetstream set to continue for the next few days it's just a matter of where exactly more storms will form, not if. Focusing on details at this stage is pointless.

What's the (God. Forsaken.Shìte) ???

Kermit.de.frog · 19-09-2018 11:56pm

Looking more unlikely now. We have a conducive jet stream which only has to be tapped on it's northern side to see a really rapid deepening of a system like this so it's not actually all that far from that at the moment.

You'd want to give it another 24 hours in my opinion. This sort of cyclogenesis can be volatile on the models in terms of track and intensity on a run to run basis. We are still four days out here as others have said.

xii · 20-09-2018 12:07am

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Looking more unlikely now. We have a conducive jet stream which only has to be tapped on it's northern side to see a really rapid deepening of a system like this so it's not actually all that far from that at the moment.

You'd want to give it another 24 hours in my opinion. This sort of cyclogenesis can be volatile on the models in terms of track and intensity on a run to run basis. We are still four days out here as others have said.

Noob here caveat.

Watching the Ex Florence remnants on GFS for the last two weeks, first it was forecast hit us then went to Greenland then hit us again then Iceland then disappeared, then exploded in the mid Atlantic in the past few days, and now dissipated again, i say wait.

Gaoth Laidir · 20-09-2018 12:13am

ZX7R wrote: »

What's the (God. Forsaken.Shìte) ???

GFS. Good For Scratching (your arse with).

joeysoap · 20-09-2018 12:13am

Accu weather have this on Florence

https://m.accuweather.com/en/hurricane/atlantic

pad199207 · 20-09-2018 12:16am

Yellow warning now for rainfall for south eastern counties along with Tipperary, Wicklow and cork

M.T. Cranium · 20-09-2018 12:36am

GFS (gale force shockers) gets into streaks where it does really well and then other streaks where it struggles and keeps making significant track changes even within 72h. However, on a statistical basis, it is only marginally less accurate than the European model. For about ten years now, the GFS seems to make a habit of over-deepening lows at 5-6 days. The earlier looks we got for this event may be one of those cases, but the seas remain warmer than average so I am not totally buying into depressed jet scenarios.

Graces7 · 20-09-2018 4:39am

Never mind GFS... WAS time.... Good old "wait and see". Not planning out until Monday here. Mind you, it was only a few days ago that our ferryman assured me that the rest of September and all October was going to be a glorious Indian summer....

Graces7 · 20-09-2018 4:41am

Never mind GFS... WAS time.... Good old "wait and see". Not planning out until Monday here. Mind you, it was only a few days ago that our ferryman assured me that the rest of September and all October was going to be a glorious Indian summer....the "worst scenario" here is getting stranded on the dreaded mainland.. once was enough.

ZX7R · 20-09-2018 7:35am

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

GFS. Good For Scratching (your arse with).

Brilliant, I'll never look at the GFS charts without a little giggle now

Graces7 · 20-09-2018 9:21am

well on the strength of all info, going over today briefly... enough time to get to town, blitz a shop or 3 and back before rain starts.. relying on accuracy here! Lovely quiet day but cool..

dsmythy · 20-09-2018 11:39am

Won't be called Bronagh anyway. Name has been handed out for the system passing now.

DOCARCH · 20-09-2018 11:42am

dsmythy wrote: »

Won't be called Bronagh anyway. Name has been handed out for the system passing now.

Yip....UKMO have called today's system (Bronagh).

stooge · 20-09-2018 11:51am

why is today named? sure its only a bit of rain?

EDIT: Sorry, just see it was named by Met UK as its expected to intensify over wales etc

DOCARCH · 20-09-2018 11:54am

stooge wrote: »

why is today named? sure its only a bit of rain?

Potential for storm for southern England.

Other than rain, no real affect here, although could get windy on east coast later (but nothing like yesterday).

Cantona's Collars · 20-09-2018 12:02pm

DOCARCH wrote: »

Yip....UKMO have called today's system (Bronagh).

No wind with Bronagh here in Wexford but heavy rain for the last hour or so

giveitholly · 20-09-2018 1:08pm

Whoever gave the weather at 12.50 on radio 1 said to keep an eye on the forecast because there could be very stormy weather over the weekend

squarecircles · 20-09-2018 2:42pm

Meteorite58 · 20-09-2018 2:48pm

squarecircles wrote: »

Just saw that too squrecircles, couldent believe it, other models not showing anything . An Outlier or on to something big. That as it looks atm would be worse than Ali for the Southern half of the country. Obviously evolving so may change track and strength( up or down ) but certainly needing monitoring.

ZeRoY · 20-09-2018 2:55pm

Meteorite58 wrote: »

Just saw that too squrecircles

Did I miss something or link restricted? I see nothing in the post?

squarecircles · 20-09-2018 2:56pm

ZeRoY · 20-09-2018 3:02pm

Quite remarkable, nothing in the post, at all.

pauldry · 20-09-2018 3:07pm

This weekend is clouded in mystery.

Its like the weather is now classified information that the public arent allowed know in case they complain it should be RED.

As MT referred to earlier though in all seriousness the sea is warmer than normal so anything can happen still.

squarecircles · 20-09-2018 3:21pm

joan Blackburns opinion from Met eireann.

However Met Éireann is monitoring a weather system that may develop into a third storm, Storm Callum,
late on Saturday evening. The system has the potential to develop into something “nasty,” which would hit
Ireland late on Saturday into Sunday morning, Ms Blackburn said.

D9Male · 20-09-2018 3:57pm

Hmmmm, very interesting that MÉ are holding onto this as a possibility in spite of the models over the last 18 hours or so. I guess that there is a material chance that this storm will reappear on some models once the 12z suite starts to roll out.

squarecircles · 20-09-2018 4:04pm

Met Eireann outlook for coming weekend.

This weekend's weather is looking disturbed with the jet stream lying over
Ireland, and details are uncertain at this stage. But there is the potential for storm
development close to and over Ireland.

On Saturday night and early Sunday there is the likelihood of more widespread heavy
and possibly thundery rain, with some strong or possibly stormy winds possible, as a low tracks
close to or over Ireland. Further updates will issue on this closer to the time.

channaigh · 20-09-2018 4:10pm

D9Male wrote: »

Hmmmm, very interesting that MÉ are holding onto this as a possibility in spite of the models over the last 18 hours or so. I guess that there is a material chance that this storm will reappear on some models once the 12z suite starts to roll out.

What time is that out at

D9Male · 20-09-2018 4:17pm

We should have the relevant information for GFS and UKMO models at around 5pm, and the ECM model just after 7pm. There are other models between 5 and 6pm.

igCorcaigh · 20-09-2018 4:56pm

D9Male wrote: »

Hmmmm, very interesting that MÉ are holding onto this as a possibility in spite of the models over the last 18 hours or so. I guess that there is a material chance that this storm will reappear on some models once the 12z suite starts to roll out.

Do they early access to the models?

Rougies · 20-09-2018 4:59pm

igCorcaigh wrote: »

Do they early access to the models?

No, they get the main model runs at the same time we do.

pauldry · 20-09-2018 5:00pm

Nothing much on GFS initial

UKMO a bit deeper though

MJohnston · 20-09-2018 5:07pm

I made this back last year, but I see some questions about model run timings, so it might be useful again:

Note that times are in UTC, which is currently one hour behind Irish time.

munsterlegend · 20-09-2018 5:18pm

How are the models so different to what met Éireann are thinking? It’s very strange.

igCorcaigh · 20-09-2018 5:18pm

Seriously good infographic MJ

Desktop worthy.

ZX7R · 20-09-2018 5:35pm

munsterlegend wrote: »

How are the models so different to what met Éireann are thinking? It’s very strange.

Don't they have there own model based on the Harlem model,
Maybe this????

munsterlegend · 20-09-2018 5:37pm

ZX7R wrote: »

Don't they have there own model based on the Harlem model,
Maybe this????

Perhaps. What model was that chart from squarecircles earlier from?

Rougies · 20-09-2018 5:42pm

ZX7R wrote: »

Don't they have there own model based on the Harlem model,
Maybe this????

Yes the Harmonie model, but it's a short range model (48 hours afaik) and Sunday wouldn't be in range yet.

ZX7R · 20-09-2018 5:45pm

munsterlegend wrote: »

Perhaps. What model was that chart from squarecircles earlier from?

I don't know sorry..

As far as I know met definitely use there own model for predicting rain fall

ZX7R · 20-09-2018 5:47pm

Rougies wrote: »

Yes the Harmonie model, but it's a short range model (48 hours afaik) and Sunday wouldn't be in range yet.

Thank you for the info rougies
Good to know it's a short range model , always learning new things in the weather forum

Harry Palmr · 20-09-2018 6:04pm

All I'm learning is that at the rate they're naming storms we'll be back round to A monikers pretty quickly.

ninebeanrows · 20-09-2018 6:33pm

I see GEM goes for this on the latest run,

Interesting to see what the EC does in the next 45mins

gem-0-72.png?12

SleetAndSnow · 20-09-2018 6:57pm

Met Éireann shaping a depression moving over with pressure about 995 over Ireland.

Rhineshark · 20-09-2018 7:02pm

Harry Palmr wrote: »

All I'm learning is that at the rate they're naming storms we'll be back round to A monikers pretty quickly.

Eh, not unusual to get a train of storms in off the Atlantic in autumn.

Might have started a little early, I guess.

stephenjmcd · 20-09-2018 7:03pm

No mention of Sunday at all on the forecast after the 6.1

SleetAndSnow · 20-09-2018 7:21pm

stephenjmcd wrote: »

No mention of Sunday at all on the forecast after the 6.1

There was, he showed the depression moving over us and said a small bit about it but that it’s developing.

Storm 10 · 20-09-2018 7:23pm

stephenjmcd wrote: »

No mention of Sunday at all on the forecast after the 6.1

He did and he said it's one we will have to keep an eye on, what were you watching

ZX7R · 20-09-2018 7:25pm

stephenjmcd wrote: »

No mention of Sunday at all on the forecast after the 6.1

He did ,Saturday night Sunday morning a low moving through.
And will be keeping an eye on it over the next two days

Meteorite58 · 20-09-2018 7:49pm

I made this back last year, but I see some questions about model run timings, so it might be useful again:

Thanks for that Mjohnston, very handy.

rQIY6k6.jpg?1

SleetAndSnow · 20-09-2018 8:03pm

https://twitter.com/CarlowWeather/status/1042846400072085506

Meteorite58 · 20-09-2018 8:21pm

The ECM not as intense on the 12Z run as last nights ( a good 40 - 50 km/h lower on this run )

This could have a different look to it over a few more runs. Very fast jet over Ireland. Will depend on where , when and by how much the LP deepens.

( the first chart in Carlow Weathers tweet is from the 0Z run as far as I know but has the 12Z on it? )

Sunday 23rd: Potential Storm Discussion

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