Sunday 23rd: Potential Storm Discussion

Kermit.de.frog

This developing system overnight Saturday and for Sunday looks to catch the northern side of the Jet Stream which explosively winds it up as it approaches our shores.

This could go either way - still not complete model agreement and the depth and strength of this is up for grabs. What makes it somewhat different is the potential for disruption in the east due to onshore winds here.



This needs to be watched particularly for the southwest and east of the country. This is, of course, track dependent so the precise impact areas would change.

This is not only a potential storm/wind event - but a rain one too.



Keep up to date as this is an evolving situation.

igCorcaigh

https://twitter.com/CarlowWeather/status/1042344586218221568?s=19

daydorunrun

♫One storm at a time, sweet kermit, thats all I'm asking from yoooou♫

Liffey4A

Can we get a dedicated technical thread for this potential storm please?

average_runner

Hi All,
Running a race in Cork on Sunday morning, is there a risk of winds like today?

Thanks

DOCARCH

Liffey4A wrote: »

Can we get a dedicated technical thread for this potential storm please?

We'll see....more likely to have a separate dedicated weather warning moan discussion thread!

Just wondering might there be a chance of another storm on Friday first (before Sunday)?

pauldry

The Sunday storm goes further South on every run.

Maybe we in Sligo might dodge Bronas wrath

SleetAndSnow

Further south is worse for us cork people I’m assuming! This will be interesting

YFlyer

As long as it misses Limerick city. Ali didn't even give us a glancing blow.

Vinnie222

YFlyer wrote: »

As long as it misses Limerick city. Ali didn't even give us a glancing blow.

Up for a windy run ?

YFlyer

Vinnie222 wrote: »

Up for a windy run ?

I'll probably go down the riverbank

Luckycharms_74

average_runner wrote: »

Hi All,
Running a race in Cork on Sunday morning, is there a risk of winds like today?

Thanks

If its a tailwind you might break the record, if not then you're in for a tough day

All joking aside, its impossible to tell until closer to the time. Anything now is bordering on the FI charts.

average_runner

Luckycharms_74 wrote: »

If its a tailwind you might break the record, if not then you're in for a tough day

All joking aside, its impossible to tell until closer to the time. Anything now is bordering on the FI charts.

Sadly its an out and back course:mad:

SleetAndSnow

GFS still showing the storm



Looks to be mainly during the night though / 8am and moved on during the afternoon which could be a good thing.

Kermit.de.frog

Pardon the jargon but that's the parallel run...but it does show the uncertainty with the track of the system. Need a couple of more days with this one.

Here is the operational.



Nothing nailed down yet.

odyboody

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Pardon the jargon but that's the parallel run...but it does show the uncertainty with the track of the system. Need a couple of more days with this one.

Here is the operational.



Nothing nailed down yet.

Think everything should be nailed down if that happens

Pretzill

Sailing to France Sunday evening - is it going to be bad out as sea do you think?

Kermit.de.frog

SleetAndSnow

12z GFS rollin out now. Lets see!

spookwoman

Pretzill wrote: »

Sailing to France Sunday evening - is it going to be bad out as sea do you think?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D5iTNRPNHKE

SleetAndSnow

Here we have the 12z gfs at 2am Sunday:



vs the 6z:



Also the 12z at 8AM:



It has weakened a bit and takes longer to form. we will see what the other models have to say later.

MJohnston

ARPEGE still showing potential for severe coastal gusts in the south and east tomorrow night, so we shouldn't overlook that in the rush to Sunday:



This system could also bring a significant amount of rain for those same areas (this is the most extreme, but all models are showing at least 20mm rain tomorrow for the east):



ICON is showing us just dodging an intense system of extremely high winds, but only by a scant 100km or so:

D9Male

The storm potential has definitely reduced for Sunday, but a lot can change.

Pretzill

You are funny people

M.T. Cranium

If the Sunday storm track stays near or off the south coast, the worst potential would be for strong northeast backing to north winds in Leinster and east Munster, and peak gusts likely under 110 km/hr on current charts.

This could change back to a more severe outlook if the storm track lifts by 1-2 deg.

Thursday evening potential is probably worst in southern Britain but could be some scattered yellow alert type conditions in Ireland.

SleetAndSnow

According to the UKMO there won't even be a storm.

DOCARCH

SleetAndSnow wrote: »

According to the UKMO there won't even be a storm.

Met Eireann guy (....just can't remember his name off the top of my head....) on radio a few minutes ago saying they had tele conference with UKMO this afternoon and UKMO worried about potential storm tomorrow night/Friday and Sunday.

Storm 10

Gerry on RTE Radio said they just had a conference call with the UK Met about Sundays storm and it's going to be watched and warnings issued if required

M.T. Cranium

Some of the energy for this event, wherever it tracks, comes from now dissipated Florence which was last located heading east through the Gulf of Maine (since 00z analysis keeps that wave moving east and develops a new centre that is further south and likely to break away to remain in the central Atlantic ... if that got tropical again it's possible the NHC would consider it reborn Florence, but watching satellite imagery it appears that a lot of the energy is with the leading wave).

SleetAndSnow

DOCARCH wrote: »

Met Eireann guy (....just can't remember his name off the top of my head....) on radio a few minutes ago saying they had tele conference with UKMO this afternoon and UKMO worried about potential storm tomorrow night/Friday and Sunday.

Meant their model, it shows nothing regarding a storm in their 12z update.

M.T. Cranium

If the current GFS maps verified, it would be orange alert conditions around Channel Islands and possibly Thames estuary which could get a surge with overnight high tides Sunday-Monday with the very strong northerly winds that follow this low (as depicted). Full moon only 24h after this portion of the storm (at 25th 03z).

The main thing for Ireland would be a very chilly and unpleasant, raw sort of day especially given that it's Sunday with outdoor events more likely. 8 to 10 degrees with a strong wind and a bit of rain blowing sideways is going to feel like mid-winter.

stephenjmcd

Joanna on the 6.1 news. Asked about the potential for the weekend. Said technically it's a larger depression, doesn't mean it's going to be worse. Monitoring over next 24-36 hours before any warnings issued or even named.
She seemed reluctant to give much away

Darwin

The 12z ECMWF rolling out now and UKMO models show a very flabby looking low passing to the south of Ireland for Sunday, a complete non event in terms of wind. GFS showing a less severe event (for Ireland) than yesterdays charts. Still time for plenty of change between now and Sunday.

pad199207

Darwin wrote: »

The 12z ECMWF rolling out now and UKMO models show a very flabby looking low passing to the south of Ireland for Sunday, a complete non event in terms of wind. GFS showing a less severe event (for Ireland) than yesterdays charts. Still time for plenty of change between now and Sunday.

Unless we see the usual trend northwards of the depression I think Ireland will dodge this potential bullet.

SleetAndSnow

Pretty much gone from the ECMWF

EG: Yesterdays 12z ECM:


vs Todays:

MJohnston

SleetAndSnow wrote: »

Pretty much gone from the ECMWF

That's 500hPa pressure, not MSLP.

SleetAndSnow

MJohnston wrote: »

That's 500hPa pressure, not MSLP.

thanks for that! still learning

MSLP here

Gaoth Laidir

MJohnston wrote: »

That's 500hPa pressure, not MSLP.

MSLP is on that chart, in white, with 500 hPa heights, not pressure!

Kermit.de.frog

This could yet deepen quite quickly so I wouldn't put too much store in the models just yet.



Give it until tomorrow evening or even Friday to see if this is on or not.

irishfeen

So this is looking more like a rain event rather then a storm event in Ireland (opposed to UK) by current predictions?

Rodar08

Sorry to be annoying with the “my aunty Flo is wearing a hat tomorrow, will it blow away” nonsense BUT we’re flying Belfast to Bristol with our 2 first time flyers 2 and 4 yr olds and it’s looking like a storm on the way there AND on the way back?? Aahh 😱😱

Flying Thur Bel to Bri 9:30pm
Return Sun Bri to Bel 4:30pm

Any fairly clear info at the min for me? Thanks guys

MJohnston

Rodar08 wrote: »

Sorry to be annoying with the “my aunty Flo is wearing a hat tomorrow, will it blow away” nonsense BUT we’re flying Belfast to Bristol with our 2 first time flyers 2 and 4 yr olds and it’s looking like a storm on the way there AND on the way back?? Aahh ����

Flying Thur Bel to Bri 9:30pm
Return Sun Bri to Bel 4:30pm

Any fairly clear info at the min for me? Thanks guys

I reckon you're going to encounter some problems on the Bristol side of both those dates, it's hard to say for Sunday, but tomorrow evening at the time you're supposed to arrive looks very windy in Bristol.

JCX BXC

Rodar08 wrote: »

Sorry to be annoying with the “my aunty Flo is wearing a hat tomorrow, will it blow away” nonsense BUT we’re flying Belfast to Bristol with our 2 first time flyers 2 and 4 yr olds and it’s looking like a storm on the way there AND on the way back?? Aahh 😱😱

Flying Thur Bel to Bri 9:30pm
Return Sun Bri to Bel 4:30pm

Any fairly clear info at the min for me? Thanks guys

Any user who says they think this or that is simply working off of guess work. It's way too uncertain, simply we cannot say.

sdanseo

Massive downgrade on 18Z GFS. Barely worth a mention, even for the UK, except maybe Cornwall with mean wind 60-70km/h.
The 65kt mean wind around the Belgian coast from the 12Z is now barely 45kt.

pauldry

Yup its gone

In the past few days it looked like a 160kph event was possible now maybe 80kph

Computers really feck up the forecast at times

Maybe its time to just admit it and say we dont have a clue...computers or no.

MJohnston

Kermit has flipped his luck this season after nailing all the snow threads!

JCX BXC

To be fair to the models, we've just had a fairly severe storm which creates havoc in forecasting future events.

ZX7R

The position of the jet will also have a big influence on the charts .

Gaoth Laidir

Models can tend to do a windscreen-wiper pattern from run to run, so I wouldn't be so quick to rule it out (especially as you're quoting the God-Forsaken Shíte). With such a strong Jetstream set to continue for the next few days it's just a matter of where exactly more storms will form, not if. Focusing on details at this stage is pointless.

Jimmy.

We must pour 100 meters of concrete, Kermit can you confirm storm or not.

munsterlegend

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

Models can tend to do a windscreen-wiper pattern from run to run, so I wouldn't be so quick to rule it out (especially as you're quoting the God-Forsaken Shíte). With such a strong Jetstream set to continue for the next few days it's just a matter of where exactly more storms will form, not if. Focusing on details at this stage is pointless.

Is the GFS useful for trends only for these islands or anything at all?