Sunday 23rd: Potential Storm Discussion

Graces7

well on the strength of all info, going over today briefly... enough time to get to town, blitz a shop or 3 and back before rain starts.. relying on accuracy here! Lovely quiet day but cool..

dsmythy

Won't be called Bronagh anyway. Name has been handed out for the system passing now.

DOCARCH

dsmythy wrote: »

Won't be called Bronagh anyway. Name has been handed out for the system passing now.

Yip....UKMO have called today's system (Bronagh).

stooge

why is today named? sure its only a bit of rain?

EDIT: Sorry, just see it was named by Met UK as its expected to intensify over wales etc

DOCARCH

stooge wrote: »

why is today named? sure its only a bit of rain?

Potential for storm for southern England.

Other than rain, no real affect here, although could get windy on east coast later (but nothing like yesterday).

Cantona's Collars

DOCARCH wrote: »

Yip....UKMO have called today's system (Bronagh).

No wind with Bronagh here in Wexford but heavy rain for the last hour or so

giveitholly

Whoever gave the weather at 12.50 on radio 1 said to keep an eye on the forecast because there could be very stormy weather over the weekend

squarecircles

Meteorite58

squarecircles wrote: »

Just saw that too squrecircles, couldent believe it, other models not showing anything . An Outlier or on to something big. That as it looks atm would be worse than Ali for the Southern half of the country. Obviously evolving so may change track and strength( up or down ) but certainly needing monitoring.

ZeRoY

Meteorite58 wrote: »

Just saw that too squrecircles

Did I miss something or link restricted? I see nothing in the post?

squarecircles

ZeRoY

Quite remarkable, nothing in the post, at all.

pauldry

This weekend is clouded in mystery.

Its like the weather is now classified information that the public arent allowed know in case they complain it should be RED.

As MT referred to earlier though in all seriousness the sea is warmer than normal so anything can happen still.

squarecircles

joan Blackburns opinion from Met eireann.

However Met Éireann is monitoring a weather system that may develop into a third storm, Storm Callum,
late on Saturday evening. The system has the potential to develop into something “nasty,” which would hit
Ireland late on Saturday into Sunday morning, Ms Blackburn said.

D9Male

Hmmmm, very interesting that MÉ are holding onto this as a possibility in spite of the models over the last 18 hours or so. I guess that there is a material chance that this storm will reappear on some models once the 12z suite starts to roll out.

squarecircles

Met Eireann outlook for coming weekend.

This weekend's weather is looking disturbed with the jet stream lying over
Ireland, and details are uncertain at this stage. But there is the potential for storm
development close to and over Ireland.

On Saturday night and early Sunday there is the likelihood of more widespread heavy
and possibly thundery rain, with some strong or possibly stormy winds possible, as a low tracks
close to or over Ireland. Further updates will issue on this closer to the time.

channaigh

D9Male wrote: »

Hmmmm, very interesting that MÉ are holding onto this as a possibility in spite of the models over the last 18 hours or so. I guess that there is a material chance that this storm will reappear on some models once the 12z suite starts to roll out.

What time is that out at

D9Male

We should have the relevant information for GFS and UKMO models at around 5pm, and the ECM model just after 7pm. There are other models between 5 and 6pm.

igCorcaigh

D9Male wrote: »

Hmmmm, very interesting that MÉ are holding onto this as a possibility in spite of the models over the last 18 hours or so. I guess that there is a material chance that this storm will reappear on some models once the 12z suite starts to roll out.

Do they early access to the models?

Rougies

igCorcaigh wrote: »

Do they early access to the models?

No, they get the main model runs at the same time we do.

pauldry

Nothing much on GFS initial

UKMO a bit deeper though

MJohnston

I made this back last year, but I see some questions about model run timings, so it might be useful again:



Note that times are in UTC, which is currently one hour behind Irish time.

munsterlegend

How are the models so different to what met Éireann are thinking? It’s very strange.

igCorcaigh

Seriously good infographic MJ

Desktop worthy.

ZX7R

munsterlegend wrote: »

How are the models so different to what met Éireann are thinking? It’s very strange.

Don't they have there own model based on the Harlem model,
Maybe this????

munsterlegend

ZX7R wrote: »

Don't they have there own model based on the Harlem model,
Maybe this????

Perhaps. What model was that chart from squarecircles earlier from?

Rougies

ZX7R wrote: »

Don't they have there own model based on the Harlem model,
Maybe this????

Yes the Harmonie model, but it's a short range model (48 hours afaik) and Sunday wouldn't be in range yet.

ZX7R

munsterlegend wrote: »

Perhaps. What model was that chart from squarecircles earlier from?

I don't know sorry..

As far as I know met definitely use there own model for predicting rain fall

ZX7R

Rougies wrote: »

Yes the Harmonie model, but it's a short range model (48 hours afaik) and Sunday wouldn't be in range yet.

Thank you for the info rougies
Good to know it's a short range model , always learning new things in the weather forum

Harry Palmr

All I'm learning is that at the rate they're naming storms we'll be back round to A monikers pretty quickly.