Storm Dylan : Sat 30th PM / Sun 31st Dec 2017 AM

Oneiric 3 · 31-12-2017 5:10pm

nacho libre wrote: »

It is irrelevant if they are paid or trained to do such a job, why should they have to risk their life or give up their time.

Good point. Why should they do what they are willingly trained to do, or give up their time, to rescue people? I am sure there are thousands of other jobs these people could have taken up that are much less dangerous to their own lives. I mean, why would they willingly decide to take up such a dangerous position in the first place?

Oneiric 3 · 31-12-2017 5:22pm

I don't think anybody on here is questioning the warning criteria itself, but how it is used to encompass vast swathes of regions that knowingly won't be affected. This is the issue I have.

MJohnston · 31-12-2017 5:23pm

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

I don't think anybody on here is questioning the warning criteria itself, but how it is used to encompass vast swathes of regions that knowingly won't be affected. This is the issue I have.

But uncertainty of the track was high.

Oneiric 3 · 31-12-2017 5:31pm

MJohnston wrote: »

But uncertainty of the track was high.

In the final 24 hrs, there was very little, and as far as I can tell, even during the uncertainty, there was never gusts of up to 125/130 km/h gusts shown over the entirety of the west and north that would warrant such a warning for the entire region. I wouldn't be so adamant about this if this was just a once off, but it isn't.

Oneiric 3 · 31-12-2017 5:42pm

Larbre34 wrote: »

So if had lasted for 12 hours at those sustained speeds, would that have been enough for Orange? Dylan met the thresholds, and they were borne out, end of.

This is a nonsense debate lads, the warning system is perfectly fit for purpose, IF people read the description that goes along with each event and take grown up decisions accordingly. Met Éireann arent here to spoon feed anyone, just to offer cogent information for those whose activities or exposed locations may put them at greater risk than the 3 bed semi in a sheltered spot whose bird table ended up at a strange angle.

The real problem here, is the p1ss poor, click bait, weather hysterical "journalism" that originated with the Express in the UK and is now being screen scraped and repeated in the Irish Indo, by lazy disaffected keyboard warriors that they call correspondents.

For Gods sake grow up and use your own instincts lads.

There seems to be the not so subtle implication in this post that we should just all shut up and accept everything we are told. I don't subscribe to such an idea. When you have people becoming genuinely fretted about a potential dangerous weather event that was never forecast to happen, then it is within our right to point this out.

Gaoth Laidir · 31-12-2017 5:43pm

Meteorite58 wrote: »

My tuppence worth .

I think the ECM was the best performing model here, Met Eireanns HARMONIE model looks like it performed very well in general ( earlier took a track further out off shore I believe but corrected back more towards land later nearer the event). An interesting storm to observe as it only formed early yesterday and deepened rapidly moving quickly up along the coast and never deviated from it's final track as forecast.

The GFS in the end predicted the wind speeds quite well I think when it got the track sorted in the final runs on the last day. The WRF was not bad but under predicted the wind speeds just a tad on the coasts but was realistic inland and again was way off in the track early on but aligned well in the final runs.

The ARPEGE was way out in the lead up to the storm ( 2 - 3 days out ) but corrected well in the last day or so producing a more accurate wind speed prediction likewise the AROME took time to get the correct track but in the end did well .

ICONS earlier runs on Saturday were better but later runs brought the track too close and has been said by others it has a history of overdoing the wind speeds which was clearly demonstrated last night and I would be slow to rely on them too much in the future.

The ASCAT was auseful I thought and on reflection was not showing anything out of the ordinary leading up to the storm forming off the W coast.

I think in future I will be watching the ECM / GFS and leaning more towards the ECM and HARMONIE on the lead up to events for the general pattern and later the HI Res models for comparison on the final day or so before and would probably lean towards a combination of ECM ,WRF GFS and ARPEGEE for the finer details and of course the HARMONIE.

From observing this event closely I think that the models rarely under predict but have a tendency to over predict ,sometimes just a bit and maybe forecasters add a little bit on for insurance and not to be caught out ( and not to have to carry a guilty conscience or the blame if some dreadful accident happened which was weather related ).

As an island nation we will nearly always get stronger winds along the coasts and high ground from the type of weather systems we experience.

The warning system is another question for another thread I think but worthy of reasonable debate and would like to see solutions to this problem . I believe that a bigger problem is possibly the under resourcing of Met Eireann and the tiny amount of time allocated to it in presenting its forecasts on TV and radio which often seem too rushed and end up too vague . The weather can be a complicated thing and very hard to fully predict even with all the models and maybe that is something that needs to be conveyed more . I suppose that is why the forecasts end up being so generalized.

Well no two days are the same and for me it has been a valuable learning experience. Plenty more weather to observe in the coming week .

The ASCAT is not a model but is just measured winds from polar-orbiting satellites. Handy for comparing model field to actual winds and getting a fix on the centre, though it does tend to undermeasure at very high windspeeds and can't report winds when it's raining.

nagdefy · 31-12-2017 6:18pm

With regards to the colour coded warnings for severe events i feel the county system is the problem, especially for wind events.

I'm going over old ground a little but wind gusts and mean speeds in coastal Mayo, Donegal and Galway will be very different than the counties eastern/southern extremities.

Maybe the best solution would be something like this for Storm Dylan.

'Orange wind warning in operation for regions 10 miles from the coast in Sligo, Leitrim, Donegal, Mayo and Galway.

Other parts of the aforementioned counties yellow wind warning. Yellow wind warning for the rest of Ireland bar counties Wexford, Wicklow, Kilkenny, Carlow.'

I can see why Met Eireann use full county warnings it's a bit more of a cover all and you don't have people thinking am i 9 or 11 miles from the Galway coast as the crow flies:D

Oneiric 3 · 31-12-2017 6:37pm

nagdefy wrote: »

With regards to the colour coded warnings for severe events i feel the county system is the problem, especially for wind events.

I'm going over old ground a little but wind gusts and mean speeds in coastal Mayo, Donegal and Galway will be very different than the counties eastern/southern extremities.

Maybe the best solution would be something like this for Storm Dylan.

'Orange wind warning in operation for regions 10 miles from the coast in Sligo, Leitrim, Donegal, Mayo and Galway.

Other parts of the aforementioned counties yellow wind warning. Yellow wind warning for the rest of Ireland bar counties Wexford, Wicklow, Kilkenny, Carlow.'

I can see why Met Eireann use full county warnings it's a bit more of a cover all and you don't have people thinking am i 9 or 11 miles from the Galway coast as the crow flies:D

Galway is a big county, as are most counties along the west coast. As someone mentioned yesterday, Ballinasloe in the east of the country has very little in common weather wise with Mace Head on the west coast. This should be at least considered when issuing warnings.

Anyway, back to my personal 'imby' griping. This chart shows maximum yearly gusts at Claremorris, as station located well inland in central Connacht, clearly something has changed in the last 15 to 20 years, though keep in mind there is missing data in the late 90s period. Where max gusts of 70 to 80 knots were relatively common place in by gone days, max gusts of between 50 to 65 knots now are the norm.

Data is from Met Éireann.

kneemos · 31-12-2017 6:46pm

People have a perception of what a storm is...something that causes damage,not your bog standard windy night.

Maybe if they must issue storm warnings the could rate them one to three or something.

MJohnston · 31-12-2017 7:00pm

kneemos wrote: »

People have a perception of what a storm is...something that causes damage,not your bog standard windy night.

Maybe if they must issue storm warnings the could rate them one to three or something.

They already issue storm warnings with Yellow (unnamed), Orange (named), and Red (named) levels. Plus they have varying degrees of language they use in the text of any warning.

lolie · 31-12-2017 7:13pm

Britain's wildest weather 2017 on channel 4 and +1 now.

nagdefy · 31-12-2017 7:31pm

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

Galway is a big county, as are most counties along the west coast. As someone mentioned yesterday, Ballinasloe in the east of the country has very little in common weather wise with Mace Head on the west coast. This should be at least considered when issuing warnings.

Anyway, back to my personal 'imby' griping. This chart shows maximum yearly gusts at Claremorris, as station located well inland in central Connacht, clearly something has changed in the last 15 to 20 years, though keep in mind there is missing data in the late 90s period. Where max gusts of 70 to 80 knots were relatively common place in by gone days, max gusts of between 50 to 65 knots now are the norm.

Data is from Met Éireann.

That is unusual.. I would have expected Stephen's Day Storm 1998 to hit a high. Northern half of the country badly hit. Love the music grading system! I can see Joanna Donnelly going for that:)

Gaoth Laidir · 31-12-2017 8:46pm

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

Or 'Trump supporters'?

MJohnston wrote: »

Not what I said

MJohnston wrote: »

Oh please drop the snowflake bullsh!t now - anyone who uses that phrase just sounds like a Trump supporter.

:rolleyes:

Anyway, it's all become a storm in a teacup so let's all allow it to blow over...

Fastnet Lighthouse and Finnis Buoy (just east of Inisheer) gusted to 61 knots, while Ballybunion Buoy gusted to 59 knots. Still would like to see Donegal Airport's max gust...

https://twitter.com/FastnetLHouse/status/947235746250977280

https://twitter.com/FinnisBuoy/status/947274075415687169

https://twitter.com/BallybunionBuoy/status/947259707965804544

Gaoth Laidir · 31-12-2017 9:08pm

nagdefy wrote: »

That is unusual.. I would have expected Stephen's Day Storm 1998 to hit a high. Northern half of the country badly hit. Love the music grading system! I can see Joanna Donnelly going for that:)

It didn't even make the list, though there are no data for that day in Met Éireann's data

Here are all Claremorris gusts 70 knots and above. Note the last one was a 78-knot southerly gust on 11th August, 1999. Not sure if it's true as the charts for that day look very benign.

nagdefy · 31-12-2017 9:14pm

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

It didn't even make the list, though there are no data for that day in Met Éireann's data

Here are all Claremorris gusts 70 knots and above. Note the last one was a 78-knot southerly gust on 11th August, 1999. Not sure if it's true as the charts for that day look very benign.

It made their (Met Eireann) severe historical event list. 78* knots so maybe the asterisk denotes something faulty in the reading.

http://www.met.ie/climate-ireland/weather-events/Dec1998_Storm.PDF

Gaoth Laidir · 31-12-2017 9:19pm

nagdefy wrote: »

It made their (Met Eireann) severe historical event list. 78* knots so maybe the asterisk denotes something faulty in the reading.

http://www.met.ie/climate-ireland/weather-events/Dec1998_Storm.PDF

It says * means estimated readings...

sryanbruen · 31-12-2017 9:21pm

11 August 1999 brought a 78 knot gust?

This is Met Éireann's description for that day:

Dry overnight. Some outbreaks of rain today, mostly during the morning;in south Munster some were heavy but elsewhere they were scattered and lighter with quite a few places escaping entirely. Light southeasterly winds. Normal temperatures.

Note they said light southeasterly winds. Not to mention, the 11th was one of the more higher pressure days of the entire month.

nagdefy · 31-12-2017 9:23pm

Just from memory that was a serious storm.

Naturally not nearly as bad down south but myself and my brother stayed in that Stephen's night rather than head out and watched Braveheart's premier on RTE! Just remember having one ear tuned into the old walkman listening to news reports on the storm.

1997 it was the south of the country who bore the brunt of the Christmas Eve storm.

Gaoth Laidir · 31-12-2017 9:29pm

sryanbruen wrote: »

11 August 1999 brought a 78 knot gust?

Like I said, I don't think it's true.

Meteorite58 · 31-12-2017 9:29pm

Storm Dylan timeline of pressure and wind gusts.

M.T. Cranium · 31-12-2017 9:40pm

Two questions come to mind reading the above (very interesting).

1. Any chance that Claremorris recording location changed around 1995-6? The data appear to take a step down which can indicate a change in exposure? Where are the wind data recorded now?

2. With reference to the list of historical wind gusts, what's the period covered by the data? I don't see Darwin in there, or Ophelia. Looks to be 20th century only and probably post-1945. There was a strong wind event on Feb 27, 1903 that should probably be in the top three of any list. And then there's Jan 1839 and Dec 1886 which we know would be near top of any list.

mickyfitzy2 · 31-12-2017 9:49pm

NIMAN wrote: »

I doubt its windier than you think.

The storm seems to have moved all of Buncrana. Last time I checked it was a lot further than 10 miles from Malin Head.;)

Yes it's actually 14 miles as the crow flies

sryanbruen · 31-12-2017 9:52pm

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

Like I said, I don't think it's true.

The 11th is notable from that month due to a partial solar eclipse and a 1-3 degree drop in temperature during the morning within an hour when temperatures normally do be rising.

Gaoth Laidir · 31-12-2017 10:02pm

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Two questions come to mind reading the above (very interesting).

1. Any chance that Claremorris recording location changed around 1995-6? The data appear to take a step down which can indicate a change in exposure? Where are the wind data recorded now?

It looks like it alright.

https://www.met.ie/about/weatherobservingstations/claremorris.asp

The station opened on the 9th November 1943 as a fully manned synoptic station. The manual station was replaced by an AGI automatic station in 1996. The station at Claremorris was officially closed on 1st November 2010 and was replaced by a TUCSON* Automatic Weather Station at the same location from January 1, 2010.

The historical data start in 1950 and run to 30 November 2017, for now. All data should be in there alright. 53 knots for Darwin, 44 for Ophelia.

nagdefy · 31-12-2017 10:03pm

sryanbruen wrote: »

The 11th is notable from that month due to a partial solar eclipse and a 1-3 degree drop in temperature during the morning within an hour when temperatures normally do be rising.

I was working in the Central Bank at the time and remember us all heading out to the steps with our piece of paper with a small hole to watch the eclipse.

I made a bit of a fool of myself, some fella stepped infront of me and blocked the sun and not seeing him i let a shout 'Total Eclipse'!

Winston Spencer · 31-12-2017 10:11pm

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Two questions come to mind reading the above (very interesting).

1. Any chance that Claremorris recording location changed around 1995-6? The data appear to take a step down which can indicate a change in exposure? Where are the wind data recorded now?

2. With reference to the list of historical wind gusts, what's the period covered by the data? I don't see Darwin in there, or Ophelia. Looks to be 20th century only and probably post-1945. There was a strong wind event on Feb 27, 1903 that should probably be in the top three of any list. And then there's Jan 1839 and Dec 1886 which we know would be near top of any list.

The gates closed on Claremorris weather station on March 31st 1996. I think the staff moved to Knock Airport. It was a political decision which was very unpopular locally

Shedbebreezy · 31-12-2017 10:28pm

IMO The most impressive thing about storm in 1998 was a gust of 97mph in Castlederg which is far from the coast in Tyrone

nacho libre · 31-12-2017 11:05pm

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

Good point. Why should they do what they are willingly trained to do, or give up their time, to rescue people? I am sure there are thousands of other jobs these people could have taken up that are much less dangerous to their own lives. I mean, why would they willingly decide to take up such a dangerous position in the first place?

Why does someone choose to be a medic or a rescue pilot?
A sense of civic duty, perhaps, among other reasons. I see nothing wrong with someone choosing to devote their life to helpings others. I still don't think that excuses others for engaging in reckless behaviour that puts their life and the life of a rescuer at risk. Your angle seems to be that people should not be molly - coddled, and thus free to do stupid things like jumping off Salthill Pier during high winds. If you do such things, you should be fined in my view for being a public nuisance.

Oneiric 3 · 31-12-2017 11:45pm

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Two questions come to mind reading the above (very interesting).

1. Any chance that Claremorris recording location changed around 1995-6? The data appear to take a step down which can indicate a change in exposure? Where are the wind data recorded now?

2. With reference to the list of historical wind gusts, what's the period covered by the data? I don't see Darwin in there, or Ophelia. Looks to be 20th century only and probably post-1945. There was a strong wind event on Feb 27, 1903 that should probably be in the top three of any list. And then there's Jan 1839 and Dec 1886 which we know would be near top of any list.

I've considered this possibility M.T, but I don't think this would be a factor because 1, we now have another station in the greater region (Athenry) that reports more or less the same wind speeds as Claremorris and 2. my own personal experience of greater winter storminess in the locality in bygone days. I remember quite a few storms in the 90s that were truly the real thing and they were truly ferocious and very frightening events, and pretty much as Nacho reminisced earlier. The 'storms' here locally over the last decade or more are, at their height, are akin to how the storms I remember started out before they really got going. I also distinctly remember that lightning was not uncommon during these storms, which no doubt was due to enhanced trough lines etc.

Oneiric 3 · 31-12-2017 11:49pm

nacho libre wrote: »

Why does someone choose to be a medic or a rescue pilot?
A sense of civic duty, perhaps, among other reasons. I see nothing wrong with someone choosing to devote their life to helpings others. I still don't think that excuses others for engaging in reckless behaviour that puts their life and the life of a rescuer at risk. Your angle seems to be that people should not be molly - coddled, and thus free to do stupid things like jumping off Salthill Pier during high winds. If you do such things, you should be fined in my view for being a public nuisance.

It is clear we are not going to agree on this Nacho, so I shan't argue with you further. For what it is worth, I can appreciate your argument, but you just don't seem to understand mine.

Oneiric 3 · 31-12-2017 11:53pm

sryanbruen wrote: »

11 August 1999 brought a 78 knot gust?

This is Met Éireann's description for that day:

Note they said light southeasterly winds. Not to mention, the 11th was one of the more higher pressure days of the entire month.

That looks like a set up that would potentially bring some potent homegrowns to the west of Ireland Syran. I wonder if there is a possibility that a tornado touched down near the station on that day?? :P

Jpmarn · 01-01-2018 12:02am

11th of August 1999 was the day of a near total solar eclipse especially in the south of Ireland. The path of totality passed over south west England.

M.T. Cranium · 01-01-2018 12:29am

Thanks for the responses, perhaps because of today's date I did not take in that the table was for Claremorris only (max gusts) and as to the changes made at observing site, I think that would be a factor in the step down shown in the graph but even with that corrected I think Oneiric's observation is valid about a decline in maximum wind gusts. Maybe the new automatic sensors were situated in a slightly less exposed spot than the human observers had been using. But even if you add 5-10 knots to the data since the move it would still run generally lower.

On to January 4th, our next likely named storm?

Gaoth Laidir · 01-01-2018 12:55am

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Thanks for the responses, perhaps because of today's date I did not take in that the table was for Claremorris only (max gusts) and as to the changes made at observing site, I think that would be a factor in the step down shown in the graph but even with that corrected I think Oneiric's observation is valid about a decline in maximum wind gusts. Maybe the new automatic sensors were situated in a slightly less exposed spot than the human observers had been using. But even if you add 5-10 knots to the data since the move it would still run generally lower.

On to January 4th, our next likely named storm?

Here's the station on Google Streetmap. It looks fairly open to the elements. This view is looking southwestwards.

This photo from met.ie is of the back of the compound, also looking southwestwards.

Oneiric 3 · 01-01-2018 1:44am

Mean daily wind speed at Belmullet for the winter period:

Clearly a peak in the late 80s through the 90s, before falling back down again.

Max winter gust speeds, less obvious, but a clear decline in the frequency of very high gusts (>=40 m/s) at the station since the 'naughties'.

Just looking at those excelling photos that GL posted, exposure does not seem to be an issue at the Claremorris station. As I said earlier, we can reasonably check and compare Claremorris wind data against that of Athenry as there is usually not much of a difference in max gust speeds during notable events, though of course there will be exceptions.

Data from the ECA&D.

Storm Dylan : Sat 30th PM / Sun 31st Dec 2017 AM

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