Boards.ie uses cookies. By continuing to browse this site you are agreeing to our use of cookies. Click here to find out more x
Post Reply  
 
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
04-09-2019, 16:08   #61
Loughc
Moderator
 
Loughc's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2010
Posts: 13,567
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gonzo View Post
cooler temperatures already starting across northern Europe. Last night was sub zero in parts of Norway and Sweden, so a proper frost in some of those areas.

It's already turned much cooler today here in Ireland, and the next few nights could see night time temperatures getting down to 4 or 5C if skies clear.
We are only 4 days into September and already it seems like Autumn is in full swing.
That's funny we just had the conversation in work about how much colder last night was. Definitely some change in the air alright, hopefully we can get a few frosty nights/mornings this Winter, and not a Mild Christmas again.
Loughc is offline  
(4) thanks from:
Advertisement
04-09-2019, 19:31   #62
SeaBreezes
Registered User
 
Join Date: Feb 2014
Posts: 431
Gavs weather channel winter update: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=lyb24G...ature=youtu.be

Last edited by SeaBreezes; 04-09-2019 at 19:37.
SeaBreezes is offline  
04-09-2019, 19:56   #63
Loughc
Moderator
 
Loughc's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2010
Posts: 13,567
Quote:
Originally Posted by SeaBreezes View Post
Gavs weather channel winter update: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=lyb24G...ature=youtu.be
Jeez a hour and 2 mins. Anyone got the TL DR version?
Loughc is offline  
(2) thanks from:
04-09-2019, 20:03   #64
Oneiric 3
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jan 2013
Posts: 3,172
Quote:
Originally Posted by sryanbruen View Post
Winter 2007-08 was very mild and wet, January among wettest on record. December had a settled spell mid-month that was quite prolonged. January opened with an easterly outbreak which brought snow to the northeast but this was temporary. February was a west-east split although mid-month tended to be settled for many. March and April were close to average for temperatures but featured quite cold snaps with snowfalls in both months. Most recent April snow I can recall here.
Thanks for that recap Syran. Come to think of it, I do recall that all too brief easterly snap in early Jan '08. It did bring snow here too but like the NE, it was only temporary. May that year was especially beautiful.
Oneiric 3 is offline  
(2) thanks from:
04-09-2019, 20:48   #65
Gonzo
Moderator
 
Gonzo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 1999
Posts: 10,539
Send a message via MSN to Gonzo
Quote:
Originally Posted by Oneiric 3 View Post
Thanks for that recap Syran. Come to think of it, I do recall that all too brief easterly snap in early Jan '08. It did bring snow here too but like the NE, it was only temporary. May that year was especially beautiful.
That snowfall in January 2008 was fantastic but it was very short lived. I remember watching the radar and seeing a train of snow showers push across the Irish sea into Meath and Louth, in about 3 hours it dumped nearly 6 inches of snow, then the wind direction changed after midnight and the showers moved further north. From what I can remember Dunshaughlin was just inside the area getting pasted, while I think most of Dublin had nothing from that event. Mild air was back the next morning and snow didn't last all that long. It was also the first decent snowfall we had since December 2000.
Gonzo is offline  
Advertisement
05-09-2019, 14:21   #66
Oneiric 3
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jan 2013
Posts: 3,172
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gonzo View Post
That snowfall in January 2008 was fantastic but it was very short lived. I remember watching the radar and seeing a train of snow showers push across the Irish sea into Meath and Louth, in about 3 hours it dumped nearly 6 inches of snow, then the wind direction changed after midnight and the showers moved further north. From what I can remember Dunshaughlin was just inside the area getting pasted, while I think most of Dublin had nothing from that event. Mild air was back the next morning and snow didn't last all that long. It was also the first decent snowfall we had since December 2000.
It was more of the frontal snow event here if I remember correctly. Lasted a few hours before turning back to rain as the warmer air moved in, though we could possibly be talking about 2 different events here. I remember May & June 2008 more vividly tbh. May was very sunny in that golden easterly type way with some thunder while June brought a pretty major thunderstorm event on the evening of the 21st.
Oneiric 3 is offline  
Thanks from:
05-09-2019, 15:08   #67
nacho libre
Registered User
 
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 12,260
After last year, i am not taking too much heed of long range forecasts- unless there is one stating that there will be copious amounts of snow. Some people never learn:

In relation to the debate which cold spell was best, i would have to go with 2010 too, but March 2018 was special in its own way. It put to bed the notion that we can't get snowy cold after mid februrary. The only downside was even with temperature hovering at zero or below snow still melted.
nacho libre is online now  
(2) thanks from:
05-09-2019, 15:58   #68
Gonzo
Moderator
 
Gonzo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 1999
Posts: 10,539
Send a message via MSN to Gonzo
Quote:
Originally Posted by nacho libre View Post
It put to bed the notion that we can't get snowy cold after mid februrary. The only downside was even with temperature hovering at zero or below snow still melted.
That's why I much prefer a 2010 style event from late November to mid February at the latest. The snow of March 2018 was great, but once the snow stopped, the melting process was very fast, infact the snow was probably melting slightly most of the time, if the same event had happened in December or January, snow depths would have been even greater.
Gonzo is offline  
(5) thanks from:
05-09-2019, 16:52   #69
Tabnabs
Registered User
 
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 12,672
A notorious mountain pass in western Norway, from two days ago.

Tabnabs is offline  
Advertisement
06-09-2019, 09:44   #70
Periscal
Registered User
 
Join Date: Apr 2010
Posts: 95


We got to below freezing two nights in a row yesterday and day before. Also if ECMWF 0Z was to verify, then I would see mountains around me turning white very early this year. Fingers crossed for a good winter this year. Fortunately here in central Europe even in poor winters there will be weeks with some snow at least.

If I had to compare Irish winters 2010 and 2018 I would definitely go with 2010, there is no better timing that 2010, there so much more atmosphere in December snow then any other months, I would even put 2009/10 ahead of March 2018 for the lovely frosty mornings and then more prolonged cold. March snow just doesn't hit the right feelings. I have experienced lot of March snow in Slovakia as kid and never appreciated it that much, it actually contributes a lot to elderly mortality having winter too long when organism is tired and actually need more sun and warm rather then snow and -10C.
Periscal is offline  
08-09-2019, 16:32   #71
Graces7
Registered User
 
Join Date: Dec 2009
Posts: 23,022
Quote:
Originally Posted by Snow Garden View Post
Seeing Lough Corrib completely frozen over in 2010 absolutely blew my mind.
I witnessed a farmer walking on to an island about 300m from shore to tend to his cattle. He tied a load of empty 5l water drums just in case. Mad stuff.
I have many bizarre memories of 2010. At that time I was renting up in the Blue Stacks in Donegal and was cut off for about six weeks in all. Just was unreal. Ice three inches deep on the road. It was not an easy time.

No problems with deep annual snow in Orkney the decade I lived there. Just Donegal! boardsies saved the day in the end. It just was I think that people here are not used to such weather. Not helpful. A lot of older folk said the same. Oh one local priest went visiting on skis

Here I am better equipped and better stocked and have not been offisland for the best part of a year now . Still longing to build a snowman before I die.

They tell tales of having to dig snow out of the ferry in 2010 here.
Graces7 is offline  
(2) thanks from:
08-09-2019, 19:31   #72
JJJJNR
Registered User
 
JJJJNR's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2005
Posts: 4,582
Could this volcanic eruption have an effect on European weather.

http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/ro...lcano-raikoke/
JJJJNR is offline  
09-09-2019, 12:49   #73
sryanbruen
Registered User
 
sryanbruen's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2015
Posts: 10,646
I see that the media have started their annual cycle of hyping up the coldest winter in 50 years is coming except this time it's the Beast from the East returning. I find this year's release relatively interesting (although as always frustrating) as it's a bit different to other years. Recently, a study was released from University College London by Saunders, Lea and Smallwood titled "Long-Range Forecast for the North Atlantic Oscillation and UK Weather in January-February 2020". I will highlight some parts of it with my own research and discuss my opinions on the forecast.

Firstly, they state the following quote:

Quote:
There is an 87% chance the NAO will be less than 1981-2010 mean and a 65% chance the CET will be colder than the 1981-2010 mean. Examination of data between 1953 and 2019 shows that nine of the ten years where these predictor fields (referring to solar and stratosphere cyclic signals) had the same sign and similar magnitude to that in summer 2019 were followed in January-February by a negative NAO and by a CET colder than climatology.
87% chance of a -NAO to occur during January/February 2020 according to their teleconnections (which they go onto mention as monthly solar 10.7 cm flux data and monthly QBO data) based on Summer 2019. That's a very high chance I must say but keep in mind, that includes a 13% chance of -NAO not occurring which is still a significant chance in weather world in my opinion. They also state a 65% chance of the Central England Temperature (CET) being colder than the 1981-2010 which again is quite a high chance but that includes 35% chance of not being cold. I suspect this takes modern warming into account somewhat as well as -NAO winters not all being colder than average.

When I did an analogue on +NAO summers last year with winters that followed, there was a very strong signal for the +NAO to continue into the winter. These summers included but not limited to 1983, 1979, 1967, 1994, 1976, 1972, 1996 and 2013. A much different signal this year with -NAO summers which include but again not limited to 2012, 1958, 2011, 2015, 2016, 2008, 1993, 2009, 1998, 1980, 1954, 2014, 1957, 2010 and 1962. One thing to notice here is the frequency of anomalous -NAO summers in the 21st century so far - feedback from arctic amplification perhaps. There is definitely more of a signal for a -NAO winter with a -NAO summer but it's not clear cut either as if anything is in weather! I'll go more in-depth with this at a latter point as a NAO update is in the works.

The following table shows years with similar magnitude of solar flux and 50hPa QBO to Summer 2019 and the January/February NAO/CET values for those years. Looks to me that there is good correlation with these results and only 1975 was not cold (1966 average although even that had a cold Nov/Dec period). Also looks like that all the years had a westerly QBO in the April to June period preceding the winter which makes sense with 2019.



If you'd like to read the study for yourself, here's the link: http://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/10080518/...%282019%29.pdf

I know I shouldn't be saying this but there is always some people believing the crap. There is nothing to suggest that the Beast from the East will be returning. An event like 2018 was very, very rare and only comparable with the likes of 1947 and 1982 or in terms of cold, 1956, 1987 or 1991. The study is merely suggesting the risk of colder than average temperatures in January/February 2020 with a -NAO.
sryanbruen is offline  
09-09-2019, 12:53   #74
nthclare
Registered User
 
Join Date: Feb 2009
Posts: 1,175
I'd like a frosty calm winter like the one's we had in the 80's
Maybe it was the smog that made them more crispy, I remember those cold evenings and the urban smell of coal fires etc
nthclare is offline  
(4) thanks from:
09-09-2019, 15:52   #75
Artane2002
Registered User
 
Artane2002's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2018
Posts: 1,302
RE Sryan's post I was shocked to see that on Sky News, was expecting a bit more sense from them!
Artane2002 is offline  
Post Reply

Quick Reply
Message:
Remove Text Formatting
Bold
Italic
Underline

Insert Image
Wrap [QUOTE] tags around selected text
 
Decrease Size
Increase Size
Please sign up or log in to join the discussion

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search



Share Tweet