Property Market 2015

P. Breathnach · 04-01-2015 2:23pm

The_Conductor wrote: »

Its localised- they can't sell houses in some parts of Dublin- there are hundreds of vacant properties in North County Dublin- that no-one wants. The issue is the city centre, South Co. Dublin and a few select areas of the suburbs....

It is localised, and you could drill down further and find that it is highly localised. Similar properties only a short distance from one another can fetch widely-different prices. There are many factors at play but, in my view, perhaps the most important is how purchasers perceive the neighbours they might have.

Dublin is not a single housing market; it's an aggregate of market segments.

My view is that the lending restrictions will have a price-limiting effect on properties in locations seen as more desirable - things like the 3-bedroom semi in Terenure. Those frozen out of that segment might switch their focus to slightly lower-price areas like Walkinstown, and prices there might rise somewhat. Those who had been hoping to buy in Walkinstown might be pushed out to places like Ballyfermot, and push up the prices there a bit. So I foresee some ripple effects in 2015.

koheim · 04-01-2015 3:41pm

It is not for everybody to buy a house or apartment, that's how it should be. The second hand market in Dublin is changing and to have less than a 5 years perspective is no point. Also, to look at your own home as an investment is missing the point.
Most older houses in Dublin are in shockingly bad condition, build quality and insulation is just so poor. If you find a bargain, you will have to spend a fortune making it safe and comfortable.

Supply is the biggest issue, and I do not think this will be solved in the next 6-7 years. Prices will not fall this period!

How much do you think it cost to build a 100m2, 3 bed semi (the Irish dream house size), to current or better building standards, including all fees to council and legal and including the land??

Panda_Turtle · 04-01-2015 5:12pm

koheim wrote: »

How much do you think it cost to build a 100m2, 3 bed semi (the Irish dream house size), to current or better building standards, including all fees to council and legal and including the land??

Is there an argument to say that these build/land costs etc are too high?

I'm investing in a nice three bed caravan, will have change from 2k!

In all seriousness though there is talk about prices over in the prices/costs subforum of the construction/planning forum.

koheim · 04-01-2015 6:10pm

Panda_Turtle wrote: »

Is there an argument to say that these build/land costs etc are too high?

I'm investing in a nice three bed caravan, will have change from 2k!

In all seriousness though there is talk about prices over in the prices/costs subforum of the construction/planning forum.

My point is that the cost of a new build dictates the cost of the second home market. Some people think that house prices should fall dramatically, but that could only happen if the cost of building was at a lower level...

ezra_pound · 04-01-2015 6:23pm

koheim wrote: »

My point is that the cost of a new build dictates the cost of the second home market. Some people think that house prices should fall dramatically, but that could only happen if the cost of building was at a lower level...

This is entirely wrong. It is similar logic to the Marxist theory of value.

Price is determined by supply and demand in the market. The relationship between price and cost obviously impacts on new supply, but cost does not influence price.

Prices in many areas and estates are still well below the cost of building them, and will be for a long time.

ezra_pound · 04-01-2015 6:27pm

Of course, if prices are too low relative to cost, then supply will not increase and, in a low supply environment, unless demand is brought down, prices will rise.

The_Conductor · 04-01-2015 6:33pm

However- we have to be cognisant of the fact that our price of supply- is massively out of kilter with virtually everywhere else in the world. It costs almost the same to build a house in Portlaoise- as it does in SE1 in London. Like what?

Also- supply and demand are both very flexible terms- open to interpretation- and indeed, influenced by all manner of other factors. Supply- which everyone says is in constraint- means pretty much everyone can't live in Dublin 2, 4 and 6....... Plenty of supply elsewhere. Perhaps not to purchase- and perhaps damn expensive- but its there, nonetheless. Demand- is driven by a number of factors- not leastly access to finance- which is becoming an issue- and which may dampen this factor markedly.......

If we mean supply in the sale market- its already shooting up- and the length of time to sell- has over doubled in the Dublin area over the last 12 months alone......... We are not constructing large numbers of homes where people want to live though- principally because us Irish are allergic to high density accommodation. South Dublin- is finite in its size- and if we're not going to construct upwards- we are snookered- unless we build elsewhere. But people don't want to live elsewhere......... Well- expectations need to be adjusted.......

You do know- we will still be going around in circles in 12 months time- unless there are defining events in the interim- such as a new property crash......... Which is itself- not the impossibility that some people imagine.

yankinlk · 04-01-2015 7:14pm

Im just back from house shopping today. Looked in an area i tried to buy into back in 08. nothing nice for sale. i dont mean nothing nice in my range, i mean i would be settling on a worse house than im in, for more than 50% less than what prices were in 08. the house i wanted back then, is just simply not available to buy, at any price.

if a desirable house were to come up for sale, im sure i would not be the only one bidding. hence the facts and figures of price rises and drops are totally off kilter at the moment. someone that HAS to sell, accepts 50% drop, does not set the overall price for the market, only for that one sale.

Sala · 04-01-2015 9:40pm

Both asking prices and transaction prices fell in dublin in last quarter of 2014 according to daft report

The_Conductor · 04-01-2015 10:37pm

Sala wrote: »

Both asprices and transaction prices fell in dublin in last quarter of 2014 according to daft report

The exact same happened in Q2- the market really is all over the place. Its highly volatile- there is no trend, its all over the place.

gaius c · 05-01-2015 1:14am

ElizKenny wrote: »

Now it doesnt matter to us if there are falls in the future anymore. It wont be too many years before we own them all outright and all rent (minus running costs and tax) is pure profit.

Made a small correction to your post.

MayBea · 05-01-2015 12:29pm

Sala wrote: »

Maybe that's your bank policy I haven't applied so I don't know. But on the property pin one person said UB issued a letter saying it was subject to 20% deposit already, another said their AIP was subject to modification depending in rules.

Also I would think if the CB says mortgages need to be subject to x y and z the bank will have to pay heed to that between the AIP and actual application

We have solid mortgage offers (not the approvals in principle) from 4 major banks, including Ulster Bank, all issued in mid-December'14. The UB offer in particular is subject to 10% deposit and is valid until June'15 regardless of the rules.

Zamboni · 05-01-2015 1:53pm

I won't make any predictions on property prices because the market is too unstable with far too many mitigating factors.

General predictions for 2015 - nothing will have been learned.

Sub-standard new builds.
Poor planning regulation enforcement or inspection.
Rental prices in Leinster will increase. No rent ceilings - people will be forced to accept higher accommodation costs as a ratio of their net income.
Potential for the retarded populist political decision to increase rent supplement levels.

Five Year Prediction

The targets in the ‘Social Housing Strategy 2020: Support, Supply and Reform’ will not be met.
Period.

Ritchi · 05-01-2015 3:01pm

I think houses in Dublin will go down by up to 5%, and up by 5-10% in the rest of the country.

Rents will go up by at least 10% in Dublin.

johnp001 · 05-01-2015 3:23pm

Ritchi wrote: »

I think houses in Dublin will go down by up to 5%, and up by 5-10% in the rest of the country.

Rents will go up by at least 10% in Dublin.

According to the figures in the IT article today
http://www.irishtimes.com/business/house-prices-to-rise-but-at-slower-rate-survey-finds-1.2055183
Wicklow, Meath and Kildare are showing with good increases.
Further out from Dublin things are very flat with 0% growth in 9 counties and 5 counties showing decreases in Q4.

Panda_Turtle · 05-01-2015 4:21pm

johnp001 wrote: »

According to the figures in the IT article today
http://www.irishtimes.com/business/house-prices-to-rise-but-at-slower-rate-survey-finds-1.2055183
Wicklow, Meath and Kildare are showing with good increases.
Further out from Dublin things are very flat with 0% growth in 9 counties and 5 counties showing decreases in Q4.

Good increases? Or bad increases? Depends on your point of view!

who_ru · 05-01-2015 7:00pm

I sincerely hope the CBoI stick to their guns on the deposit requirements and help people to avoid unnecessary debt. It is intolerable that a market that is completely rigged is allowed to continue unchecked.

The govt could have reduced costs to the building sector in order to kick start supply side initiatives, or taxed land hoarding in Dublin but not a bit of it.

The govt has set out to increase the cost of living, reduce disposable incomes and increase accommodation costs, rental or private ownership. And they have succeeded. Noonan has publicly said he wanted to see property prices go higher last summer, in the face of official policy to accelerate property price increases of circa 25% yoy, something had to be done. The regulator decided to regulate, and got bashed from pillar to post in the media and by vested interests and compromised politicians for doing so.

Lets hope the CBoI does as it set out to do.

Sala · 05-01-2015 7:10pm

If, as is bring reported here, AIP is not subject to amendment, we may be looking at post summer approvals, therefore those buying from July August onwards, before we see any impact from the CB rules. It will be interesting to see whether people are allowed draw down the amount offered pre and and post rules

ElizKenny · 05-01-2015 9:48pm

gaius c wrote: »

Made a small correction to your post.

Also a running cost.

ghostdancer · 05-01-2015 10:15pm

Sala wrote: »

If, as is bring reported here, AIP is not subject to amendment, we may be looking at post summer approvals, therefore those buying from July August onwards, before we see any impact from the CB rules. It will be interesting to see whether people are allowed draw down the amount offered pre and and post rules

seeing as it hasn't come in yet, surely it could be even later than that?

Glenbhoy · 06-01-2015 2:22am

ghostdancer wrote: »

seeing as it hasn't come in yet, surely it could be even later than that?

AIP is always subject to prevailing circumstances, it is not contractually binding in any way. As has been pointed out numerous times, the banks can throw out aips Willy nilly for now, but when push comes to shove they will cherry pick the very best applicants (as there is a little bit of flexibility in the cb proposals), the majority will have to comply with the regulations. Banks may be chancing their arm at present with these 10 month approvals etc, but the cb document is quite clear that such attempts to circumvent the rules will not be tolerated, and as many institutions have found out recently, the cb is no longer toothless and administers a little bit more in sanctions than the slap of the wrist that was the norm 10 yrs ago.

chris85 · 06-01-2015 6:10am

At what stage in January would estate agents put new properties on to the market? Quite enough since early to mid December which is normal enough. Just more wondering.

Sala · 06-01-2015 10:04am

I presume mid to late January will see a bit of stock. People hold off selling and moving in December

hadoken13 · 06-01-2015 11:29am

When are the banks going to start repossessing homes? I know it is terrible when someone's home gets repossessed but going on the figures released by the central bank ("There are now 37,000 mortgage accounts that are in arrears for 720 days or more") if people are not making any effort to pay then their home should be repossessed. Ireland has one of the lowest rates of bank repossessions in the EU and if even half of those homes were repossessed and put up for sale it would make a huge difference.

cpoh1 · 06-01-2015 11:35am

MayBea wrote: »

We have solid mortgage offers (not the approvals in principle) from 4 major banks, including Ulster Bank, all issued in mid-December'14. The UB offer in particular is subject to 10% deposit and is valid until June'15 regardless of the rules.

And what property is the approval for? What happens when you actually find the property you want and need to put that on the mortgage approval?

There are loads of people around who think that because they have approval now they can just use that once they find the house they want to draw down on. That's not how it works! The exact amount you need to borrow and the address need to be included and that means its a fresh application (minus a lot of the paperwork) and you are back to square one with the amount and the ECB regulations.

Some people are going to be in for a shock!

Caliden · 06-01-2015 11:41am

hadoken13 wrote: »

When are the banks going to start repossessing homes? I know it is terrible when someone's home gets repossessed but going on the figures released by the central bank ("There are now 37,000 mortgage accounts that are in arrears for 720 days or more") if people are not making any effort to pay then their home should be repossessed. Ireland has one of the lowest rates of bank repossessions in the EU and if even half of those homes were repossessed and put up for sale it would make a huge difference.

Cheap caretakers for the houses until they're worth repossessing and selling on would be my guess.

Not much point repossessing now if they're unlikely to sell or be sold at a large loss.

The_Conductor · 06-01-2015 11:50am

Sala wrote: »

I presume mid to late January will see a bit of stock. People hold off selling and moving in December

Don't know.....
Lots of investors cut and ran- before the 31st of December CGT cutoff.
Stock may even go down- there are too many variables to be able to call it.

irish gent · 06-01-2015 12:05pm

Double bubble burst again on the cards later on in the year for the property market.

Michael D Not Higgins · 06-01-2015 12:06pm

The_Conductor wrote: »

Don't know.....
Lots of investors cut and ran- before the 31st of December CGT cutoff.
Stock may even go down- there are too many variables to be able to call it.

Every year, without fail, there's an inflow of stock at the start of the year. How that affects the price is a different matter.

seamus · 06-01-2015 12:17pm

Looking at previous years, even bubble years, my gut feeling is that growth will be negative or flat in Q1, then spike positive in Q2 as sellers decide this year is the year to put their property on the market and buyers rush to make a purchase while their AIP still exists. In Q3, growth will remain largely flat as mortgage availability becomes more constrained and a decent number of new and second hand homes hits the market.

There will be quite a lot of new builds spinning up during the summer as the banks try to cash in on the demand, but by Q2 2016 will realise that the demand has dropped off and as it was back in 2008, new properties will be arriving on the market at lower prices to get them sold off.

So my gut feeling is that the best gamble to be made is to sell up in Q2 2015 and purchase again sometime in 2016. Otherwise you'll find yourself trading up to negative equity again.

That of course is hinging on the ICB rules coming in as they are. Banks and politicians may find ways around them, and with the stagnation in the eurozone there's a risk of a market flooded with cheap money again, which will see prices continue to rise into 2017.

Property Market 2015

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