Property Market 2015

The Spider wrote: »

Yeah? Have a read of the below link, Ivan Yates has done his homework, then come back to me.

http://www.independent.ie/opinion/columnists/ivan-yates/vulture-capitalists-wont-build-the-25000-new-houses-we-need-but-our-real-developers-will-30874675.html

Ivan Yates. I wouldn't bet on it.

Millem wrote: »

But what they don't say is that for the month of November mortgage approvals were up 42% for ftbs.
http://www.irishtimes.com/business/financial-services/mortgage-approvals-soar-as-buyers-seek-to-beat-restrictions-1.2043799
We were looking in south dublin in December and there was loads of cash buyers bidding who wouldn't make the 31st dec deadline. Every house I rang up enquiring had offers over the asking price :eek:

I'm one of them actually and we applied as part of a long-term plan to do so, not a rush to beat any sort of deadline.

We won't spend a cent on poor value houses though and we also don't intend to draw down the full amount we're approved for. Let the market "moderate" and we'll be ready to go when prices are right. If it keeps going up like it has, we'll just stay renting and saving.

The_Conductor wrote: »

Ibec are forecasting private sector pay rises of an average of 2% for 2015- and the ESRI are forecasting an inflation rate of 2% for the Irish economy.

IBEC say one thing.
http://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/more-than-half-of-companies-planning-pay-rises-this-year-1.2052210

ISME say another.
http://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/smes-urged-not-to-increase-wages-1.2052968

ISME are more important because SME's employ far, far more people than the MNC's represented by IBEC. A tiny segment of the labour force will see pay increases. The rest will get zilch.

Mongfinder General wrote: »

Ivan Yates. I wouldn't bet on it.

Ah now. He has unique insight to share with us from his time examining the bottom of pint glasses in Wales.

gaius c wrote: »

Ah now. He has unique insight to share with us from his time examining the bottom of pint glasses in Wales.

Celtic Bookmakers. How on earth does a bookie go out of business with the amount of mugs on this country?

Mongfinder General wrote: »

Celtic Bookmakers. How on earth does a bookie go out of business with the amount of mugs on this country?

It's an interesting tale. He expanded big time into physical locations but ignored online betting so he lost a huge chunk of his turnover over time and his costs increased thanks to increased rents.

Basically, he bet big and he bet wrong.

handlemaster wrote: »

But at least he tried and was successful for a long time. Better to have tried and failed than not tried at all.

Not in this country. Try being self employed, going bust and then trying to claim benefits from the State.

murphaph wrote: »

Yup. Ireland does its level best to encourage our underclass to have more and more children but disincentivises decent working people from doing so.

In Berlin we pay (on decent salaries) a grand total of 160 a month for full time childcare for our 2 year old and that includes breakfast, lunch and snack. That reduces to 23 a month once he turns 3 (just his food basically).

Ireland needs to seriously consider the repercussions of an ever growing underclass and a shrinking contributing class. It is a ticking time bomb.

We pay approx 2k for a 5yo, 4yo and 2yo and that's a good rate for Dublin. I know this isn't the forum for this, but what is the reason for this differential?
I suppose our state doesn't want to (and certainly can't afford to in any case) provide/subsidise childcare, why is that? I think that even when we could have afforded to assist with this, our representatives (reflecting the will of the people who elected them) have always been in favour of giving people more disposable income and allowing them to use the cash as they see fit, that's why our public sector expenditures are targeted at salaries as opposed to services.

Stojkovic wrote: »

Bull**** my friend.
Houses in Ballyer arent even hitting 200k. Maybe in nicer parts of Clondalkin and certainly not in Darndale.

I hope it stays that way. If there is a 15-20% rise per year for even 2 years, where would that leave prices?


Headed north of 300k.

gaius c wrote: »

It's an interesting tale. He expanded big time into physical locations but ignored online betting so he lost a huge chunk of his turnover over time and his costs increased thanks to increased rents.

Basically, he bet big and he bet wrong.

I believe that Ivan was pretty confident that FOBT (one armed bandits to the rest of us) were going to be allowed in Ireland as they are in shops in the UK, these machines prey on punters in shops and generally in more deprived areas. The crack cocaine of gambling as they've been called.

Re the article itself, loads of rubbish, but he's right in his criticism of NAMA, plaudits for selling on UK assets at a 'profit' into a rising market, well done NAMA.

As for calling in Owen O'Callaghan for advice.....

Mongfinder General wrote: »

I hope it stays that way. If there is a 15-20% rise per year for even 2 years, where would that leave prices?

Headed north of 300k.

Not in Ballyer it wont.

mr_seer wrote: »

For the benefit of those claiming that house prices won't fall because of a lack of supply, I would like to remind them that there was a lack of supply in Dublin in 2006 and 2007. The ESRI, CSO and all the national papers consistently claimed that prices would keep going up because of demographics - pent up demand and an insufficient supply response. We were consistently told that people had to readjust their expectations and settle for an apartment. Sadly this narrative has reared its ugly head once again by the same people who got it so badly wrong the last time. Prices in Dublin subsequently fell by up to 60%. The principal difference is that this time, we don't have the incomes, demographics or ability to borrow to back up this new bubble that has been created by the government policy. You can only rig a market for so long and in Dublin at least, there are significant signs that it is slowing rapidly. Cash buyers are gone from the market, viewings are down big time and the new CB rules will reduce real demand even further. I expect a pretty major downward correction later in 2015

Yep and then we had the banking crisis and major recession, the problem with the above is that by all accounts we're now in economic recovery, and house price drops generally don't happen when an economy is on the up.

More jobs being created generally doesn't mean a drop in property values!

We had some apartments that were never in negative equity but we were all for selling them once the market picked up as the rent for them went down a lot.

The rents (and their values) started falling in 2008 and we couldnt wait to get out, but decided to wait and watched them fall even more.

But now that rents are on the up and the values are reasonable again, and most importantly the mortgages are 6 or 7 years less than they were we have done a complete about turn in our thinking. And it turns out we were right not to sell them, as theyve turned a small profit every year but the last couple of years its got rather big.

Now it doesnt matter to us if there are falls in the future anymore. It wont be too many years before we own them all outright and all rent (minus running costs) is pure profit.

We have gone from being desperate to sell, to thinking about buying more in the space of a few years.
I wonder has that happened to many people? The landscape changes so quickly.
Maybe next year we'll be wanting to sell again But I doubt it at this stage.

So after my ramblings, all i really wanted to say was that you never know one way or the other whats coming with the economy, or with property prices. But im thinking, moderate yearly price growth until the next big economic upheaval. They bug increases we had last couple of years were just the hard bounce off the bottom where it overshot. I think we are getting into more reasonable rates of increase now.

yankinlk wrote: »

The deposit rule, like borrowers wont get around that, yeah.

Back in boom times, few people ever had the 8% deposit. in reality they begged, borrowed and CU'd it and banks looked the other way.

Ive had financial advisors, indy ones and some from the big banks, who will readily tell you how to get a deposit together without having the deposit.
Very easily done if you needed to do it. I didnt, so never availed of their "expertise".

I find its good to get different opinions for different "financial advisors", but all of them will coach you in getting around minimum deposit rules.

johnp001 wrote: »

.
Analysis of asking price changes over on thepropertypin show that Dublin market has peaked.
Latest CSO figures show Dublin prices marginally down for November.

Thats why i like the idea of a thread where peoples colours are nailed to the mast.
When I was lurking last year i read exactly the same thing as you have just posted.

And look where we are year on year now.