100 Bets to Broke Hennessy to Cheltenham

longshotvalue · 31-12-2014 7:47pm

2:20 Cheltenham

Bothy has understandably taken a few races to get going after a 2 year break but I think there was a sign or 2 last time that his time might not be that far away, along with the fact the he is off an increasingly attractive mark.. This is a big step up in trip but any horse that can get 2nd in the Coral Cup can stay 3 miles here in a normal race. 20/1 with paddy power is just too big to ignore and I wouldn’t be at all surprises if he went of shorter than there in this race.

1 Point EW 20/1 Paddy Power

longshotvalue · 31-12-2014 8:09pm

2:10 Musselburgh

Ruacana has been a frustrating horse more than a few times since his good 4yo form, but he ran well at this time last year of a higher mark in a similar but stronger race and did look like he was ready for a step up in form on the basis of a nice first run this season. He has a decent 7lbs claimer on tomorrow and it leaves him with a very nice racing weight. The current generally available 8/1 looks a decent bet.

1 Point win 8/1 Generally

longshotvalue · 01-01-2015 3:26pm

aidankkk wrote: »

2:10 Musselburgh

Ruacana has been a frustrating horse more than a few times since his good 4yo form, but he ran well at this time last year of a higher mark in a similar but stronger race and did look like he was ready for a step up in form on the basis of a nice first run this season. He has a decent 7lbs claimer on tomorrow and it leaves him with a very nice racing weight. The current generally available 8/1 looks a decent bet.

1 Point win 8/1 Generally

Lovely ...:D:D decent start to the year

longshotvalue · 01-01-2015 4:14pm

aidankkk wrote: »

Cheltenham 3:05

I was sure Rock on Ruby would start favourite for this race, and hopefully the rains don’t arrive but even though he has weight to give to a couple of promising horses he looks great value at 3/1 over his ideal trip and course. Vaniteux will have to be very good to beat him here over this trip.

2 Points win 3/1 Coral Will Hill

Go on Rock....

:D:D Silly Bookies

Letyourselfgo · 01-01-2015 4:17pm

super tipping, thanks for sharing

sdoc13 · 01-01-2015 4:21pm

Well in aidan. Great start to the year

longshotvalue · 02-01-2015 10:37am

3:10 Ayr

This looks a decent race for relatively small money , but Saphir River is going to win at some stage of around this mark and after a couple of decent looking runs this season he may well be ready to do himself justice here at a decent looking price. He ran as well as could be expected at Cheltenham after losing his place after a mistake, and ran well at Aintree the time before. The Favourite could well be a step ahead of the handicapper here bit I’d prefer the 10/1 on offer about my selection to come back to form.

1 Point win 10/1 Generally

longshotvalue · 02-01-2015 10:45am

Ffos Las 2:50

This race will be a slog of the highest order and the bottom weight here Fishing Bridge has stone lighter than anything else to carry here. He is also of a career low mark and the trainer like to have winners here. I wouldn’t be surprised if he had a bit too much in his favour here today even though he is the outsider of the field. He is a course winner and was backed in a novice handicap chase here last time, so may well be in form at home.

1 Point win 16/1 Bet365

longshotvalue · 02-01-2015 11:10am

Cheltenham AntePost

I’m adding a couple more here with the addition of NRNB on Betfair.

Champion Chase

Sprinter Sacres price of 5/2 is near as good a price as you’ll get anyway (the best being 11/4), and no matter what happens between this and then he won’t go of longer than that if he turns up. Barry was very positive on him and given the possible trouble with Sire De Grugy he could go off long odds on if he runs well on his reappearance.

2 Points win 5/2 NRNB Betfair Sportsbook

Champion Hurdle

Rock on Ruby looks clearly in the top 3 hurdlers at the moment, and given that we have no idea at all how good Faugheen is, I’d have no hesitation is taking the 25/1 with Betfair at the moment. If they do go for the race hell be 12/1 or less on the day for sure.

1 Point EW 25/1 NRNB Betfair Sportsbook

Arkle Chase

Vautour should still be favourite for this in my view, he made a bad mistake last time, but will be a completely different horse on decent ground around Cheltenham. Paddy Power are a standout 8/1 and I can’t leave that there.

2 Points win 8/1 Arkle Paddy Power

madmoose · 02-01-2015 12:15pm

Vautour prob go jlt though? Surely ruby will want to ride UDS arkle and vautour jlt and try and mop up as many rces as he can.

rossom · 02-01-2015 2:13pm

madmoose wrote: »

Vautour prob go jlt though? Surely ruby will want to ride UDS arkle and vautour jlt and try and mop up as many rces as he can.

Think it's more likely one of them heads to the QMCC as opposed to going down the JLT route.

madmoose · 02-01-2015 2:19pm

rossom wrote: »

Think it's more likely one of them heads to the QMCC as opposed to going down the JLT route.

Cant see either coming out of novice company. Fever was talked up last week by mullins for the qmcc. Im going to say djakadam will be the ryanair horse if fever goes the qmcc.

longshotvalue · 02-01-2015 2:57pm

madmoose wrote: »

Vautour prob go jlt though? Surely ruby will want to ride UDS arkle and vautour jlt and try and mop up as many rces as he can.

Id say Valseur Lido will go for JLT, they would be mad to do anything else other than the arkle (other than my first choice champion hurdle) for Vautour, the way he went around there on rails last year is taylor made for Arkle, and UDS still hasn't really done anything to warrant being FAV for it.. UDS kind of reminded me of my mistake with Rock on Ruby last year, he may not be suited to jumping fences at cheltenham, maybe more suited to Aintree or the like..

madmoose · 02-01-2015 3:34pm

aidankkk wrote: »

Id say Valseur Lido will go for JLT, they would be mad to do anything else other than the arkle (other than my first choice champion hurdle) for Vautour, the way he went around there on rails last year is taylor made for Arkle, and UDS still hasn't really done anything to warrant being FAV for it.. UDS kind of reminded me of my mistake with Rock on Ruby last year, he may not be suited to jumping fences at cheltenham, maybe more suited to Aintree or the like..

If vautour is to go jlt then a clash with lido would still be on given that its a giggenstown horse and cooper would be on it.

sdoc13 · 02-01-2015 3:58pm

Aidan you are on fire! Great stuff.

tomaussie · 02-01-2015 4:02pm

Cracking stuff Aidan.

longshotvalue · 02-01-2015 4:34pm

aidankkk wrote: »

Ffos Las 2:50

This race will be a slog of the highest order and the bottom weight here Fishing Bridge has stone lighter than anything else to carry here. He is also of a career low mark and the trainer like to have winners here. I wouldn’t be surprised if he had a bit too much in his favour here today even though he is the outsider of the field. He is a course winner and was backed in a novice handicap chase here last time, so may well be in form at home.

1 Point win 16/1 Bet365

Fecking Beauty:D:D

longshotvalue · 03-01-2015 11:25am

Wincanton 3:15

I think the market may have got it wrong here with the Nichols pair. The 7lbs claimer is on Rebel Rebellion more than likely to take 7lbs of his top weight rather than him being 2nd choice here. He ran a great race last time out in the Grand Sefton and is effectively 8lbs better off here. He should like the conditions and trip etc and to be honest seem the most likely winner to me. 6/1 looks a huge price in this race. The favourite Black River finally got it going last time out in a weak enough novice handicap and he seems way to short of his new mark.

2 Points win 6/1 generally.

longshotvalue · 03-01-2015 2:18pm

Sandown 3:00

If in doubt on a Saturday and the ground is soft, it’s so tempting to go for a Venetia Williams horse blindly. I’ve looked a Leviathan a couple of times for this race and as his price has gone out now to 22/1 I’m getting more and more interested. He was really poor last time here, but had run twice in 3 weeks on soft ground and I’m hoping that had taken its toll. If he can get back to his previous form of that win at Ascot also on soft ground he won’t be out of the equation here as he won well there and is only a manageable 5lbs higher here. I’ll go for a min bet as if it wins and I didn’t put him up the remote would be lodged in the middle of the screen.

½ Point win 22/1 Generally

longshotvalue · 03-01-2015 2:26pm

Wincanton 2:40

Oscar Prarie is hard enough to catch on the right day , but this time last year of around this mark with a claimer on he won a similar race in similar conditions, and if he needed his seasonal opener and can get back to a bit of form here he can get competitive at a big looking 20/1

½ Point win 20/1 Bet365 & Will-Hill

longshotvalue · 03-01-2015 3:42pm

Sandown 3:35

I’m not a huge fan of pick one out of the weights here but On Trend has won a similar race to this here on the same ground as today of a higher mark that the one he runs of here. I’d imagine he needed his rather poor seasonal introduction and given his previous over the C&D that today may have been the plan. 10 stone will be a nice weight to slog around here today and at 20/1 he is worth the risk

1 Point win 20/1 Bet365 / Lads

longshotvalue · 04-01-2015 11:40am

This tread is currently up 39 Points after 38 Bets. Winners have been

Starluck 2pts win @ 7/1
Rock on Ruby Single and Double with New One +11
Twinlight 1 pts EW 25/1
Pine Creek 2nd at 16/1 EW
Ruacana 1pt win at 8/1
Rock on Ruby 2pt at 3/1
Fishing Bridge 1pt at 16/1

oPATCHo · 04-01-2015 12:37pm

WD!!

gavindublin · 09-01-2015 7:31pm

Who kidnapped aidan....

Deco99 · 09-01-2015 8:20pm

gavindublin wrote: »

Who kidnapped aidan....

Shhhh dont force it. There'll be something soon if you're patient.

longshotvalue · 09-01-2015 8:27pm

2:40 Kempton

This looks a poor enough renewal and the minute I saw the race Dell Arca sprung to mind. He was second last year in about as deep a handicap hurdle as you’re likely to find in the Betfair Hurdle on heavy ground and gave the impression that he would like further. He proved that with a good 5th at the festival and although he is higher in the weights here, he looks to have a nice racing weight with 11:02. I think 10/1 is great value and although he has possibly been a bit of a disappointment over fences, he has been racing against top class opposition.

2 Points win 10/1 Generally

longshotvalue · 10-01-2015 10:52am

3:35 Warwick

I’m going against all possible sense here, but I’m drawn to Peckhamecho here at a decent price. He has only jumped fences 3 times, and those in 2012, but he is on a good mark in comparison to his hurdle mark and he has a bit of class which if he can convert to fences he is very unexposed. He hasn’t tried this kind of trip either but he did have a decent win at Aintree this year on his first try at over 3 miles over hurdles. It was almost a case of rulling out everything else as no value and ending up here.

1 Point win 20/1 Generally

longshotvalue · 10-01-2015 10:59am

Kempton 3:15

Howards Legacy seems a decent price in this race. He has been good this year apart from last time when an early mistake put paid to his chances. He is well capable of this mark as he has proven in the past, and has form on this type of ground. Add in the old faithfull (Saturday, Heavy Ground, V Williams) and we have value here at 12/1

1 Point win 12/1 Generally

longshotvalue · 10-01-2015 11:10am

4:00 Punchestown

Turban isn’t the choice on Ruby here but he is probably the best horse in the race, is in here on very good terms getting weight from most of the others and is an easy selection at a too big looking 8/1. He fell early last week over fences, and is probably on a mission to get back confidence here but any of his hurdles form over the last year or two could well be good enough to win on these terms.

2 Points win 8/1 Generally

longshotvalue · 10-01-2015 11:35am

2:50 Wetherby

Harry Hunt has caught my eye here of what looks a very good mark. He is a c&d winner a few years ago and although he hasn’t been that great for a while, he showed up well enough last time before getting tired. The step down in trip and slightly better ground may well put him in here with a decent shout at a good price. 12/1 looks worth the risk in this race.

1 Point win 12/1 Generally

longshotvalue · 11-01-2015 11:35am

Cheltenham Ryanair Chase

Now that Cue Card is confirmed for this I think the 10/1 available will go quickly enough and is already disappearing. He won this 2 years ago in a canter is great at the course and his poor form lately looks to be down to not staying as well as I thought. Either way he is proven over C&D and that means everything here.

2 Points win 10/1 Tote/Fred/Sbet

Gringo180 · 12-01-2015 4:57pm

aidankkk wrote: »

Cheltenham Ryanair Chase

Now that Cue Card is confirmed for this I think the 10/1 available will go quickly enough and is already disappearing. He won this 2 years ago in a canter is great at the course and his poor form lately looks to be down to not staying as well as I thought. Either way he is proven over C&D and that means everything here.

2 Points win 10/1 Tote/Fred/Sbet

Will have my biggest bet at the festival in this race but I will be on Johns Spirit. Didn't stay in the King George after travelling beautifully for 2 and a half miles, he ran an absolute blinding race in the PP Gold Cup carrying top weight, idled in front and was caught on the line by Caid Du Berlais. This ever improving 8 year old will go very close imo. Currently 10/1.

madmoose · 12-01-2015 5:17pm

Don cossack will have them all in the ryanair. Im on at 16/1 a few months back so hopefully he will win thurs and then kept fresh for the ryanair

jimjamcos · 12-01-2015 5:33pm

madmoose wrote: »

Don cossack will have them all in the ryanair. Im on at 16/1 a few months back so hopefully he will win thurs and then kept fresh for the ryanair

Don't know, he still has plenty to prove at Cheltenham compared to Cue Card

Shemale · 12-01-2015 6:59pm

Was backing Cossack from around October last year for the RSA, havent seem the race since last year but I remember he fell and his jumping was poor before thank.

It was the ground and/or course last year and its going to be the same. He looks better this year but big question remains over him on the same ground, course and going quicker should surely put more pressure on his jumping.

longshotvalue · 14-01-2015 2:06pm

Newbury 2:50

On Trend was my pick in Unioniste’s race at Sandown a couple of weeks ago at a big price, and he ran really well considering he was out of the handicap. He is effectively 4lbs better off here and really should be suited to the conditions. This is a much weaker race that the Sandown one at 7/1 looks value.

1 Point win 7/1 Ladbrokes

sizing europe · 14-01-2015 3:19pm

aidankkk wrote: »

Newbury 2:50

On Trend was my pick in Unioniste’s race at Sandown a couple of weeks ago at a big price, and he ran really well considering he was out of the handicap. He is effectively 4lbs better off here and really should be suited to the conditions. This is a much weaker race that the Sandown one at 7/1 looks value.

1 Point win 7/1 Ladbrokes

Couldnt make it into work today with the snow and ice, so I will be sure to have a piece off that horse. into 6s now

longshotvalue · 16-01-2015 7:06pm

3:35 Ascot

Ackertac is one I’ve had my eye on for a while now, as he tumbles down the weight’s towards an doable mark. He has some decent form at Ascot, ran well enough at Cheltenham earlier this year and in all probability this is his best trip. He also has decent form on soft and if he gets his act together today he will look value at 28/1, which is nearly twice the price of anything else in the field.

1 Point EW 28/1 Bet365

stretchaq · 16-01-2015 9:13pm

Aidan norville in Dundalk??? Hope u were on

longshotvalue · 17-01-2015 12:40am

stretchaq wrote: »

Aidan norville in Dundalk??? Hope u were on

I wasn't.. :rolleyes:

longshotvalue · 17-01-2015 12:30pm

2:25 Ascot

One Lucky Lady on the face of it looks well out of this race from out of the handicap, but ran a great race last year in the Martin Pipe at the festival ,when probably doing a bit too much in front too soon. If she is to get back into that race she will need to get involved here. She has bits of form that of here mark here which is 5lbs out of the handicap she could well have a chance. Mares can be odd at the best of times but a reappearance of form here after a poor enough chase experience despite winning a novice chase could bode well for her given her big price. She’s worth the risk at a big price

1 Point EW 33/1 Generally

longshotvalue · 17-01-2015 12:45pm

Haydock 12:20

This is going to be an unmerciful slog and I went looking at the bottom of the weights for bit of form and found that Who Owns Me loves the mud is sure to stay and after a couple of poor performance’s is down to a winnable mark judging by his old form. He even has a 2nd 2 starts ago of a much higher mark that proves he not completely out of form. This race is likely to suit and at 20/1 he is worth a small bet.

1 Point EW 20/1 Generally

longshotvalue · 17-01-2015 4:30pm

I Think that was a great return by Sprinter Sacre and with improvement to come the 3/1 NRNB that is available now will look massive on the day with the sun on his back and good ground.

I have 2 pts at 5/2 NRNB already and im going to top up with another 2 here.

2 Pts win 3/1 NRNB Totesport / Betfred

longshotvalue · 17-01-2015 5:14pm

Champion Hurdle

I’ve seen enough Jezki looks better than ever this year so far just going down to hurricane fly on soft around Leopardstown, and for me should be favourite for the Champion Hurdle. His main opponent from last year isn’t there this year and on good ground he seems to me to be a bit clear of the new one and Faugheen on all known form. 5/1 is great value.

2 Points win 5/1 NRNB Various

longshotvalue · 17-01-2015 9:28pm

Leopardstown 2:50

Quick one while I have a bit of time and the price is right for tomorrow. Savello is of a much lower hurdles mark than his chase mark and if he can bring any of that form to this race 25/1 is going to look big. It’s the right Jockey/Trainer combo for this type of race.

1 Point EW 25/1 5 places Bet365

sdoc13 · 17-01-2015 9:48pm

aidankkk wrote: »

Leopardstown 2:50

Quick one while I have a bit of time and the price is right for tomorrow. Savello is of a much lower hurdles mark than his chase mark and if he can bring any of that form to this race 25/1 is going to look big. It’s the right Jockey/Trainer combo for this type of race.

1 Point EW 25/1 5 places Bet365

Stanjames 28s but only 4 places for anyone interested.

Shemale · 17-01-2015 10:49pm

aidankkk wrote: »

Leopardstown 2:50

Quick one while I have a bit of time and the price is right for tomorrow. Savello is of a much lower hurdles mark than his chase mark and if he can bring any of that form to this race 25/1 is going to look big. It’s the right Jockey/Trainer combo for this type of race.

1 Point EW 25/1 5 places Bet365

I reckon he will go very close, did a reverse forecast with Sea Beat

longshotvalue · 18-01-2015 1:19pm

Leopardstown 2:20

If Marito was still trained by Willie Mullins he would be one of the favourites here. He came back after a year break with a very decent run at Tramore, and has some exceptional form on heavy ground. There is a 5lbs claimer on today and if he is up to it, he should be able to perform of this mark. This trip is ideal and 22/1 is too big.

1 Point win 22/1 Betvictor and Stan James

longshotvalue · 22-01-2015 8:01am

Thyestes Chase Gowran

Very tough race as it is every year, but I’m going to go with a couple of novices from last year at big enough prices. My Murphy has solid form, and has run well this year in both the Paddy Power and the Troytown. He is down a couple of pounds here and with proven heavy ground form and the step up in trip slightly from those races he really should be right in the firing line here at what looks a big price on Betfair of 23. Toon River has been gradually coming into form this year and hopefully can continue that today at a huge price. He has a bit of course form but would have to prove he stays this far. He looks worth a shot at 44 on Betfair.

1 Point win My Murphy 23 Betfair
1 Point win Toon River 44 Betfair

Peintre Celebre · 22-01-2015 1:36pm

Toon River the only one I'd be tempted by but the ground would be concerning. It was reported he wanted better ground but 44 is big.

100 Bets to Broke Hennessy to Cheltenham

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