100 Bets to Broke Hennessy to Cheltenham

Nulty · 06-03-2015 1:07am

aidankkk wrote: »

RSA

Coneygree’s form is a long way clear of anything in this field and I feel we have to take the 9/2 on offer with Boyles at the moment because if he is confirmed for this race he should go off 5/2 or less. I’m not that convinced with the Irish form as it looks to me as if there are too many too close together. His style of going to the front and staying there should suit this race and his last run was off the charts for a novice. He is sure to stay the trip as well.

2 Points win 9/2 Boyles NRNB 4/1 Elsewhere

Took the decision yesterday to back him at 11/2 antepost. I have a feeling he'll go for this race.

frank93 · 06-03-2015 2:31am

Nulty wrote: »

Took the decision yesterday to back him at 11/2 antepost. I have a feeling he'll go for this race.

Where did you get the 11/2 . ?

Nulty · 06-03-2015 2:51am

frank93 wrote: »

Where did you get the 11/2 . ?

William Hill

longshotvalue · 06-03-2015 9:43am

Day 1

5:15 CHAPS Restaurants Barbados Novices' Handicap Chase

Looking at last year’s races reminded me of an eye-catching performance from Keltus in the Fred Winter. He absolutely flew up the hill into 4th and would surely be suited by this step up in trip and the with usual improvement in Paul Nichols horses over fences he should be right there in this. He has 2 good 2nds this year to horses who has gone up the handicap significantly since and really does look a couple of pounds at least well in here. Factor in the Festival form factor and he is an easy pick here. 16/1 with Ladbrokes NRNB is a standout at the moment and I can’t see him going off greater than 8/1.

2 Points EW 16/1 Ladbrokes NRNB

jimjamcos · 06-03-2015 10:54am

aidankkk wrote: »

Day 1

5:15 CHAPS Restaurants Barbados Novices' Handicap Chase

Looking at last year’s races reminded me of an eye-catching performance from Keltus in the Fred Winter. He absolutely flew up the hill into 4th and would surely be suited by this step up in trip and the with usual improvement in Paul Nichols horses over fences he should be right there in this. He has 2 good 2nds this year to horses who has gone up the handicap significantly since and really does look a couple of pounds at least well in here. Factor in the Festival form factor and he is an easy pick here. 16/1 with Ladbrokes NRNB is a standout at the moment and I can’t see him going off greater than 8/1.

2 Points EW 16/1 Ladbrokes NRNB

Was at the Café En Seine preview last night and MC Denis Kirwan when giving him as a handicap tip said he'd been over at Nicholls yard last week and when Nicholls had a few drinks into him, he was asked for a proper tip and gave Keltus. Will be following you.

Deco99 · 06-03-2015 3:19pm

aidankkk wrote: »

Day 1

5:15 CHAPS Restaurants Barbados Novices' Handicap Chase

Looking at last year’s races reminded me of an eye-catching performance from Keltus in the Fred Winter. He absolutely flew up the hill into 4th and would surely be suited by this step up in trip and the with usual improvement in Paul Nichols horses over fences he should be right there in this. He has 2 good 2nds this year to horses who has gone up the handicap significantly since and really does look a couple of pounds at least well in here. Factor in the Festival form factor and he is an easy pick here. 16/1 with Ladbrokes NRNB is a standout at the moment and I can’t see him going off greater than 8/1.

2 Points EW 16/1 Ladbrokes NRNB

12s now. Boyles at 14s.

ste2010 · 07-03-2015 12:11am

aidankkk wrote: »

Imperial Cup Sandown

In for a penny in for a pound, I am of course going to have a few quid on Wicklow Brave in this race. I’m on NRNB already for the County Hurdle but the 25/1 here looks well worth a gamble. He never got a run last time in the Betfair hurdle having been out the back early and he is still a horse with plenty of potential to me and should be suited by this race.

1 Point EW 5 places 25/1 BetVictor and few other places

the money is starting to come similar to the betfair!

I backed Keltus for the handicap chase also 2 weeks ago, looks kept for the race. backed champagne James on Monday at 25's. Read his last comments in running..stinks of another horse from the same owner, trainer jockey combo before he was punted off the boards at an xmas festivals :-)

longshotvalue · 07-03-2015 11:49am

Gowran 3:50

Caolaneoin has been looking for a step up in trip and although this is only a couple of furlongs further it is in heavy ground and the finish here could well be a bit of a clog which will probably suit him. He can perform of this mark and has a fair bit of form over hurdles of a fair bit higher mark than this that would put him in with a shout. 14/1 looks value

1 Point win 14/1 Will Hill 12/1 Generally

longshotvalue · 07-03-2015 12:06pm

Sandown 3:10

I’m going to add 2 small win bets on big outsiders with a small chance here. Hint of Mints form this year has been good and there is plenty of evidence that his current mark is within his grasp. Over 50/1 on Betfair is worth a min bet here. In addition Zaidiyn’s last run was eye-catching to say the least and he finished like a horse with more to show no his next run. He is in here near the bottom of the weights looks overprice at 48 on Betfair

½ Point win Hint Of Mint 55 Betfair
½ Point win Zaidiyn 48 Betfair

hawkhead · 07-03-2015 1:57pm

I've just been refunded my bet on Wicklow Brave for the county hurdle.

longshotvalue · 07-03-2015 2:05pm

hawkhead wrote: »

I've just been refunded my bet on Wicklow Brave for the county hurdle.

I haven't yet, but probably wouldn't be the end of the world if he didnt go, maybe today is the day

blindside88 · 07-03-2015 2:05pm

hawkhead wrote: »

I've just been refunded my bet on Wicklow Brave for the county hurdle.

That's strange, he's still available in the betting

longshotvalue · 07-03-2015 2:13pm

hawkhead wrote: »

I've just been refunded my bet on Wicklow Brave for the county hurdle.

Actually so have i.. Seems strange they have no market up at all..

superfurry1 · 07-03-2015 2:19pm

Wouldnt make much sense to win today and not go for the county if there is a big bonus?

hawkhead · 07-03-2015 3:07pm

Now my bet on Wicklow for the county has been opened again and they have taken the refund back

stretchaq · 08-03-2015 3:16am

Will he go county now?? Missed the start twice??

Nuts102 · 09-03-2015 1:21pm

What's the thoughts on Wicklow Brave now? Thinking of going in again at 33/1 e/w if he jumps off surely will have a good chance.

Shemale · 09-03-2015 2:25pm

Nuts102 wrote: »

What's the thoughts on Wicklow Brave now? Thinking of going in again at 33/1 e/w if he jumps off surely will have a good chance.

One last chance for me, think Saturday was used as a pipe opener

longshotvalue · 09-03-2015 7:23pm

Previously Adviced running today

Champion Hurdle

I’ve seen enough Jezki looks better than ever this year so far just going down to hurricane fly on soft around Leopardstown, and for me should be favourite for the Champion Hurdle. His main opponent from last year isn’t there this year and on good ground he seems to me to be a bit clear of the new one and Faugheen on all known form. 5/1 is great value.

2 Points win 5/1 NRNB Various

This bet looks very decent now that the ground is goind to be good.

5:15 CHAPS Restaurants Barbados Novices’ Handicap Chase

Looking at last year’s races reminded me of an eye-catching performance from Keltus in the Fred Winter. He absolutely flew up the hill into 4th and would surely be suited by this step up in trip and the with usual improvement in Paul Nichols horses over fences he should be right there in this. He has 2 good 2nds this year to horses who has gone up the handicap significantly since and really does look a couple of pounds at least well in here. Factor in the Festival form factor and he is an easy pick here. 16/1 with Ladbrokes NRNB is a standout at the moment and I can’t see him going off greater than 8/1.

2 Points EW 16/1 Ladbrokes NRNB

This looks a great price now and he just got in to the bottom of the handicap i can see him going of at 10/1 or less.

longshotvalue · 09-03-2015 7:24pm

2:40 3m 1f Ultima Business Solutions Handicap Chase

I like the look of Indian Castle in this at a big looking price. He was all the rage last year for the Kim Muir and was in the process of a top 4 finish when he nearly fell at the last and ended up 7th of 1lbs higher. I think he ran an eye-catching race over too short a trip in the Paddy Power here, and if he can travel that well for most of that race he will do well here over a more suitable longer trip. I think his place chance looks very decent and 25/1 with 5 places is worth a bet.

1 Point EW 25/1 5 Places Bet365

Peintre Celebre · 09-03-2015 7:31pm

aidankkk wrote: »

2:40 3m 1f Ultima Business Solutions Handicap Chase

I like the look of Indian Castle in this at a big looking price. He was all the rage last year for the Kim Muir and was in the process of a top 4 finish when he nearly fell at the last and ended up 7th of 1lbs higher. I think he ran an eye-catching race over too short a trip in the Paddy Power here, and if he can travel that well for most of that race he will do well here over a more suitable longer trip. I think his place chance looks very decent and 25/1 with 5 places is worth a bet.

1 Point EW 25/1 5 Places
Bet365

Ladbrokes went 66/1 on this the other day. Crazy price

longshotvalue · 09-03-2015 7:45pm

4:00 OLBG Mares' Hurdle

I’ll be shouting on Annie Power like most here but last year’s 3rd L’Unique is clearly too big here at 20/1. She was a fast finishing 3rd last year and ran 2 good races after including a decisive handicap win. She is 6lbs better off with Polly Peachum who beat here last year and really should be at most the same price as that horse around 10/1.

1 Point EW 20/1 Various

longshotvalue · 09-03-2015 7:56pm

2:05 Arkle

A fairly simple pick here as Gods Own is well overpriced here on some very decent form and plenty of experience compared to most of the field. I think his form with the likes of Balder Success and his win at punchestown last year is fairly eye-popping for a 50/1 Shot and that can’t be let go.

1 Point EW 50/1 Stan James 40/1 Elsewhere

Deco99 · 09-03-2015 8:24pm

You think thats it for tomorrow aidan? Dont do online so I might pop in now or just wait til morning.

Hulk Hands · 09-03-2015 9:47pm

aidankkk wrote: »

2:05 Arkle

A fairly simple pick here as Gods Own is well overpriced here on some very decent form and plenty of experience compared to most of the field. I think his form with the likes of Balder Success and his win at punchestown last year is fairly eye-popping for a 50/1 Shot and that can’t be let go.

1 Point EW 50/1 Stan James 40/1 Elsewhere

I like him also, although think he's slightly better value at the 20s ew w/o Un De Sceaux. Good ground 2 miles should be perfect

Aidan, would you not go e/w on Jezki if you're having the win bet? Surely 5/4 to finish in the first 3 here is robbery?

Hulk Hands · 09-03-2015 9:49pm

Peintre Celebre wrote: »

Ladbrokes went 66/1 on this the other day. Crazy price

Which I backed PC

. Did you???

longshotvalue · 09-03-2015 9:56pm

Hulk Hands wrote: »

I like him also, although think he's slightly better value at the 20s ew w/o Un De Sceaux. Good ground 2 miles should be perfect

Aidan, would you not go e/w on Jezki if you're having the win bet? Surely 5/4 to finish in the first 3 here is robbery?

Id never bet EW anything less that 20/1 usually, unless there is a huge reaason for it to be placed. If you back Jezki EW at 5/1 it would take 2 units and if he get placed itd basically only break even money back so not really 5/4. 5/4 would be if it was backed to place only with on loosing win portion.

Hulk Hands · 09-03-2015 10:06pm

aidankkk wrote: »

Id never bet EW anything less that 20/1 usually, unless there is a huge reaason for it to be placed. If you back Jezki EW at 5/1 it would take 2 units and if he get placed itd basically only break even money back so not really 5/4. 5/4 would be if it was backed to place only with on loosing win portion.

If you got offered 5/4 on Jezki to place tomorrow morning on a seperate bet, and you took it, would you then group it with your original win bet? because thats essentially what it is, the place part of an ew bet is completely seperate to the win bet. Seems silly not to take the option of 5/4 first 3 when you have that option. Id have more of the opposite view, 20's+ shots are generally terrible value on the place side (although not always, with extra places on offer mostly). Jezki and TNO are e/w steals tomorrow, although theyre the type of bets that get your accounts closed down

Anyway, we'll be cheering on a lot of the same tomorrow. Backed Keltus at 20s a couple of weeks back also

blindside88 · 09-03-2015 10:18pm

aidankkk wrote: »

2:05 Arkle

A fairly simple pick here as Gods Own is well overpriced here on some very decent form and plenty of experience compared to most of the field. I think his form with the likes of Balder Success and his win at punchestown last year is fairly eye-popping for a 50/1 Shot and that can’t be let go.

1 Point EW 50/1 Stan James 40/1 Elsewhere

Paddy powers special on this race is decent, I've taken gods own ew at 40/1 with money back on the win part of the bet if the favourite wins

ste2010 · 09-03-2015 10:32pm

Hulk Hands wrote: »

Which I backed PC . Did you???

Ian Williams yard starting to strike too. 66 is a nice price. I had shortlisted him and Gevrey chambertin. Can't believe CG is running off 138

100 Bets to Broke Hennessy to Cheltenham

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