Covid19 Part XIX-25,802 in ROI (1,753 deaths) 5,859 in NI (556 deaths) (21/07)Read OP

ACitizenErased · 15-07-2020 12:24pm

Ae Fond Kiss wrote: »

There must be a timing issue in how both positive tests and cases are released. However at the end of a week I'm sure one equates to the other.

The positive tests figure is always bigger than the confirmed cases figure as I stated but the last 3 days for whatever reason this wasn’t the case.

15-07-2020 12:28pm

snotboogie wrote: »

Obviously it would require a unified policy with Northern Ireland.

You haven't addressed the point though, you have totally misunderstood the focus of Covid Free Island, which is to eliminate lockdowns and go back to normal. Yet you are positing the position as indefinite lockdowns, the exact opposite of what they are calling for.

Normal is free movement of people. New Zealand is far from normal

caveat emptor · 15-07-2020 12:31pm

ZX7R wrote: »

Ok fair point on the six county's
A referendum would be needed for the common travel area because since the agreement in 1922 it was confirmed by legislation under the good Friday agreement also under other legislation.
These legislations can not be over ruled by the government it would have to go to the people to decided.
The freedom of movement for EU members covers all aspects including personal travel.

For Ireland to close our borders under the emergency health reasons we have to declare an emergency .
For us to do this now we would have to have lost complete control of the virus.
The European Union is not at the highest level of severity in regards to the pandemic.
So even if we wanted to we can not close our external borders ,we can close internal borders for the reason of containment of an outbreak of the virus local lockdowns.
So as it stands at the moment we would have to leave the EU to close our borders

I'm afraid I have to call bull-sh!t again. Did every country on the list I posted earlier "lose complete control of the virus"?

SeaBreezes · 15-07-2020 12:32pm

NegativeCreep wrote: »

That doesn’t confirm asymptomatic spread. It just confirms that people can be asymptomatic. It confirms that this is a mild to nothing disease for most.

Italians disagree:

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-warning-from-italy-effects-of-covid-19-could-be-worse-than-first-thought-12027348

The long-term effects of COVID-19, even on people who suffered a mild infection, could be far worse than was originally anticipated, according to researchers and doctors in northern Italy.

Psychosis, insomnia, kidney disease, spinal infections, strokes, chronic tiredness and mobility issues are being identified in former coronavirus patients in Lombardy, the worst-affected region in the country.

So little is known of the virus that any long-term planning is guess work.

Doctors believe that even the youngest and mildest infected are at risk of their lives being changed forever, and it could take years to become apparent. Whole workforces could become less productive as a consequence.

The advice from Italy is simple: Don't get infected.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/07/01/coronavirus-autopsies-findings/

timsey tiger · 15-07-2020 12:46pm

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Anyone know what their testing system is like?

That graph looks very very similar to the US graph, suggesting that their first wave never actually ended

With respect that graph, is not at all similar to the US graph. They had gotten the new case level down to close to zero, the US never got it's new incidence cases below 3/4 of the peak.

Unfortunately they took their eye off the ball and completely relaxed everything hence the rebound. They have resignations from the health area in disgust of the top leadership over the recent handling.

We are in immenent danger of following them back up the curve, I'm glad I'm only responsible for my immediate family and can work from home.

wadacrack · 15-07-2020 12:47pm

SeaBreezes wrote: »

Italians disagree:

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-warning-from-italy-effects-of-covid-19-could-be-worse-than-first-thought-12027348

The long-term effects of COVID-19, even on people who suffered a mild infection, could be far worse than was originally anticipated, according to researchers and doctors in northern Italy.

Psychosis, insomnia, kidney disease, spinal infections, strokes, chronic tiredness and mobility issues are being identified in former coronavirus patients in Lombardy, the worst-affected region in the country.

So little is known of the virus that any long-term planning is guess work.

Doctors believe that even the youngest and mildest infected are at risk of their lives being changed forever, and it could take years to become apparent. Whole workforces could become less productive as a consequence.

The advice from Italy is simple: Don't get infected.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/07/01/coronavirus-autopsies-findings/

People need to be educated on this. This isn't fear mongering. The studies clearly show that this virus is doing strange things to the body and recovery is pretty complex. Looking simply at the death rate does not tell the full picture. Zero Covid approach is the one I favor and alot of scientists believe it can be done

El Weirdo · 15-07-2020 12:49pm

ZX7R wrote: »

Ok fair point on the six county's
A referendum would be needed for the common travel area because since the agreement in 1922 it was confirmed by legislation under the good Friday agreement also under other legislation.
These legislations can not be over ruled by the government it would have to go to the people to decided.
The freedom of movement for EU members covers all aspects including personal travel.

The Good Friday Agreement doesn't even mention the CTA.

And what pieces of legislation say that we would need to have a referendum to change or get rid of it?

timsey tiger · 15-07-2020 1:00pm

stephenjmcd wrote: »

And I've a qual as you say in Data Analytics so when it comes to data I've a fair idea what I'm on about.

The full data is there to see, there's multiple reports on it issued by HSE along with testing numbers, swabs taken etc.

So yes there are legitimate queries as to what way data is reported FROM HSE to HPSC and how that data is then reported in terms of daily cases annoucned as the 24hr totals and the numbers reported dont add up especially in the last few days theres been a wide margin which would suggest yesterday's cases included a large proportion from the weekend.

This will either be confirmed or cleared up slightly with the county data which is 48hrs behind.

Its not an attitude of thats not right because we say so, there's quite clear data which you've clearly not looked at which would when you look at it show that 32 for example was not yesterday's accurate 24hr cases.

I'll gladly have an open discussion regarding data if you know what your talking about.

If you had any experience in data analytics and working with data coming from a large organisation you would be highly suspicious of perfect data.

If you used your data analytics...

I can't be bothered with this. Apply what you have learned in your data analytics course to answer yourself why your points are rubbish.

JP Liz V1 · 15-07-2020 1:08pm

RandomName2 wrote: »

Heard a report today that said that GPs are seeing (predominantly young) people who are exhibiting COVID-19 like symptoms but are refusing to be tested, looking only for medication to treat respiratory conditions.

I find this strange since COVID is a notifiable disease
https://www.hpsc.ie/notifiablediseases/listofnotifiablediseases/Immediate%20preliminary%20notification%20to%20a%20MOH%2004032020.pdf

I would have thought that testing in such circumstance would virtually be mandatory? :eek:

Why refuse a free potentially life saving test, are they even self isolating

Deeper Blue · 15-07-2020 1:16pm

Ireland have done brilliantly since we started to reopen the country and we need to be vigilant but extinguishing the virus completely just isn't an option.

What Tomas Ryan and his ilk are proposing can't and won't happen and they're well aware of this.

However I believe they see this as a good opportunity to get their name out there and since they're researchers I can understand that completely.

I just don't think their opinions should be glorified to the extent that we're currently seeing.

tom1ie · 15-07-2020 1:17pm

JP Liz V1 wrote: »

Why refuse a free potentially life saving test, are they even self isolating

Sure it’s a hoax!
It’s the 5g!
It only affects old people!
It’s just a slightly worse flu!

These are some of the reasons.

15-07-2020 1:18pm

El Weirdo wrote: »

I think you'll find we had a referendum to rescind our claim on the six counties in 1999. It passed, you might be interested to know.

Can you also tell me why we would need a referendum to end the CTA with the UK?

And the whole free movement of EU citizens bit is more to do with being able to work and live all across the EU, not really actual travel. We certainly wouldn't have to leave the EU if we wanted to close our borders for health reasons.

Borders can be closed to the EU. They can’t be closed to the UK (and I don’t just mean the NI land border).

We are unique in that, as part of the CTA, a British passport automatically gives full residency rights in Ireland, with no other documentation or permission needed. There is nothing that says they have to be working. This is not the case even in schengen, where a french person, for example, would still have to register and get a residency card if he/she wanted to settle in Spain, and therefore border could be closed to someone not in possession of such a card

So it is impossible to know whether a British person trying to cross the border is resident in Ireland and whether should be allowed to enter, without sight of bank statements or utility bills that might infer residency (and even then they might be in a partners name and not the specific individual)

Basically we are tied to the UK, and inability to restrict movement of British people, come hell or high water unless the CTA is ripped up, and there are many many Irish people and families in the UK who would have a problem with this

schmoo2k · 15-07-2020 1:18pm

timsey tiger wrote: »

With respect that graph, is not at all similar to the US graph. They had gotten the new case level down to close to zero, the US never got it's new incidence cases below 3/4 of the peak.

Unfortunately they took their eye off the ball and completely relaxed everything hence the rebound. They have resignations from the health area in disgust of the top leadership over the recent handling.

We are in immenent danger of following them back up the curve, I'm glad I'm only responsible for my immediate family and can work from home.

Since we are handling the relaxation of lockdown restrictions in a completely different way and our population density and demographics are completely different, I fail to see how we will follow them in any way?

We should however take note of what they have learned about schools reopening.

stephenjmcd · 15-07-2020 1:20pm

timsey tiger wrote: »

If you had any experience in data analytics and working with data coming from a large organisation you would be highly suspicious of perfect data.

If you used your data analytics...

I can't be bothered with this. Apply what you have learned in your data analytics course to answer yourself why your points are rubbish.

yes there is rarely perfect data. No need for the smug condescending post, but thanks I will apply my degree here.

The positive tests figure have always been bigger than the confirmed cases since the start but for the last 3 days this has been reversed so yes there is something up with the data being reported. If something reverses trend then there's an underlying issue with the data set or a change in reporting mechanism which seems to stem from the weekend in this case, it may even itself back out today, we'll soon find out.

Thanks for your concern though, we'll soon see in the county data on what day the cases arose and what the true confirmed cases number was because it sure as hell wasn't 32 yesterday in the 24hr period and of course nobody in the media bothers looking at the data in the 24hr period so it was plastered around 32 cases with no explanation as to when they actually occurred which is an issue with HPSC reporting in itself.

ZX7R · 15-07-2020 1:23pm

El Weirdo wrote: »

The Good Friday Agreement doesn't even mention the CTA.

And what pieces of legislation say that we would need to have a referendum to change or get rid of it?

Most recent in 2019 the sining of the memorandum of understanding linked both the good Friday agreement and TCA under legislation.

stephenjmcd · 15-07-2020 1:31pm

Seeing as we've seen a few GAA clubs stood down recently with regards to postive tests and contacts, GAA have changed stance today

Players who have been in "casual contact" with a Covid-19 case can continue to play unless symptoms develop, while those who have been in "close contact" with a suspected case are instructed to have no involvement until being cleared to return.

https://m.independent.ie/sport/gaelic-games/gaa-rule-that-casual-contacts-with-covid-cases-can-keep-playing-39369170.html

Boggles · 15-07-2020 1:33pm

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Thanks for your concern though, we'll soon see in the county data on what day the cases arose and what the true confirmed cases number was because it sure as hell wasn't 32 yesterday in the 24hr period and of course nobody in the media bothers looking at the data in the 24hr period so it was plastered around 32 cases with no explanation as to when they actually occurred which is an issue with HPSC reporting in itself.

But sure if they don't know, much like yourself. How can they report on it?

The media from the start report on the figures they have been given at 5.30ish every evening, nothing has changed.

Also single daily figures are pretty much moot when it comes to assessing the trend of the virus.

The problem is certain people on the thread are trying to guess the figures before they come out and when they are wrong they lose their shít.

It's the 5/7/14 day trends that are important.

caveat emptor · 15-07-2020 1:33pm

I know we've got some very qualified people on here but Bill Gates knows something about this. No whether you believe him to be a philanthropist who has the best interests in the world at heart or he is a lizard and part of some 5g conspiracy and planned it you should probably listen to him.

Spoiler alert:it's gonna get worse....His face says it all really.

JP Liz V1 · 15-07-2020 1:33pm

tom1ie wrote: »

Sure it’s a hoax!
It’s the 5g!
It only affects old people!
It’s just a slightly worse flu!

These are some of the reasons.

Covididiots

El Weirdo · 15-07-2020 1:36pm

ZX7R wrote: »

Most recent in 2019 the sining of the memorandum of understanding linked both the good Friday agreement and TCA under legislation.

Fair enough. I still don't see how it would require a referendum to change it though.

cnocbui · 15-07-2020 1:52pm

SeaBreezes wrote: »

Italians disagree:

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-warning-from-italy-effects-of-covid-19-could-be-worse-than-first-thought-12027348

The long-term effects of COVID-19, even on people who suffered a mild infection, could be far worse than was originally anticipated, according to researchers and doctors in northern Italy.

Psychosis, insomnia, kidney disease, spinal infections, strokes, chronic tiredness and mobility issues are being identified in former coronavirus patients in Lombardy, the worst-affected region in the country.

So little is known of the virus that any long-term planning is guess work.

Doctors believe that even the youngest and mildest infected are at risk of their lives being changed forever, and it could take years to become apparent. Whole workforces could become less productive as a consequence.

The advice from Italy is simple: Don't get infected.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/07/01/coronavirus-autopsies-findings/

These people who might suffer severe long term consequences - exactly what percentage of the population of Italy would they represent? A bit of context would be nice.

ixoy · 15-07-2020 1:53pm

SeaBreezes wrote: »

Italians disagree:

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-warning-from-italy-effects-of-covid-19-could-be-worse-than-first-thought-12027348

There's very little evidence though there that it will cause issues in any significant numbers to most people. All it says is, "we're not sure" which is different to "we disagree".

gipi · 15-07-2020 1:55pm

JP Liz V1 wrote: »

Why refuse a free potentially life saving test, are they even self isolating

https://twitter.com/jerosullivanRK/status/1282959677660307456?s=19

Have a look at one of the replies to this tweet - claims young people don't trust the system, won't get tested and won't download the tracker app!

https://twitter.com/arclight2011/status/1283089901446201347?s=19

ZX7R · 15-07-2020 1:58pm

El Weirdo wrote: »

Fair enough. I still don't see how it would require a referendum to change it though.

The wording iof it it's protected by law and can't be over turned by any government.
So the only way for it to be changed is if the people call for it hence you would require a referendum.
That in turn would cause a domino effect
And a **** storm that would case more damage than the pandemic

bodhrandude · 15-07-2020 2:03pm

gipi wrote: »

https://twitter.com/jerosullivanRK/status/1282959677660307456?s=19

Have a look at one of the replies to this tweet - claims young people don't trust the system, won't get tested and won't download the tracker app!

https://twitter.com/arclight2011/status/1283089901446201347?s=19

The only reply I seen was that Mary Lou didn't download the tracker app.

XsApollo · 15-07-2020 2:10pm

https://www.itv.com/news/2020-07-15/positive-news-is-coming-on-oxford-covid-19-vaccine-writes-robert-peston

Hopefully it’s true.
Winter is going to be a right clusterf*ck if we don’t have something in the pipeline.

Jim_Hodge · 15-07-2020 2:12pm

ZX7R wrote: »

The wording iof it it's protected by law and can't be over turned by any government.
So the only way for it to be changed is if the people call for it hence you would require a referendum.
That in turn would cause a domino effect
And a **** storm that would case more damage than the pandemic

A referendum is not required if the law isn't enshrined in the constitution. Where is the CTA covered by the constitution?

Assetbacked · 15-07-2020 2:14pm

XsApollo wrote: »

https://www.itv.com/news/2020-07-15/positive-news-is-coming-on-oxford-covid-19-vaccine-writes-robert-peston

Hopefully it’s true.
Winter is going to be a right clusterf*ck if we don’t have something in the pipeline.

Wow, the article even claims it could go into mass production as early as September; that would put a definite lifespan on the crisis which wouldn't be very long. Very promising if true!

gabeeg · 15-07-2020 2:16pm

ixoy wrote: »

There's very little evidence though there that it will cause issues in any significant numbers to most people. All it says is, "we're not sure" which is different to "we disagree".

There's very little evidence in either direction.

spookwoman · 15-07-2020 2:18pm

Ref Long term effects of the virus, the number must be high enough for them to notice that it is happening. Even a small % means probably more people are going to need more medical care as they get older which is going to put more of a strain on a system that is near breaking point. It was mentioned a few months ago that more people are probably going to need lung transplants as well and we don't need to look far to read about it. People need to cop on, just because there are no definitive numbers on long term effects doesn't mean it's not happening.

Cork consultant: Patients already presenting in need of lung transplants after surviving Covid
https://www.echolive.ie/corknews/Cork-consultant-Patients-already-presenting-in-need-of-lung-transplants-after-surviving-Covid-2a3a2602-2c84-408f-a8ad-63a30ccc4b63-ds

Covid19 Part XIX-25,802 in ROI (1,753 deaths) 5,859 in NI (556 deaths) (21/07)Read OP

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