Brexit discussion thread XII (Please read OP before posting)

Leroy42 · 14-07-2020 4:37pm

Yeah, but you are only looking at it from the POV of the external costs. The dropping pound, as has been the case since the Ref, has allowed the UK to increase the volume of exports as they become relatively cheaper to the likes of the EU and US.

Any price increase on imports, such as on Irish beef, will be dealt with by lower standards so that cheaper Brazilian beef (or whatever) can be substituted. It doesn't matter if the cost of that has increased over the last few years, it is relative to what they were paying before.

of course I am sure anyone with any knowledge can blow holes in my points above, but that isn't really the point. The point is that the positives, or opportunities I think they are calling them, will be shouted from the rooftops whilst the negatives will be ignored or dismissed as remoaners wanted the UK to fail.

serfboard · 14-07-2020 5:16pm

CelticRambler wrote: »

.... but at least they'll have their very very very dark blue (French-made) passports to fill up with ETIAS stamps.

Except that a lot of the hypocrites won't need the stamps, as they've applied for EU passports.

Apart from Nigel Farage, whose children have German passports (the old vanquished enemy is good for something, eh?), you have the hilarious propsect of Boris Johnson's father applying for a French passport so that Boris Johnson's children will be immune from Boris Johnson's disastrous policies.

Independent wrote:

Mr Johnson Sr has applied so that his grandchildren can live and work in the EU after Brexit.

CelticRambler · 14-07-2020 5:29pm

Leroy42 wrote: »

Any price increase on imports, such as on Irish beef, will be dealt with by lower standards so that cheaper Brazilian beef (or whatever) can be substituted. It doesn't matter if the cost of that has increased over the last few years, it is relative to what they were paying before.

Yes, but the "cheaper Brazilian beef" upon which the "Brexit = cheaper food" argument was based, is now 15% dearer than at the time of the argument, which means that it's simply not going to be all that cheap by the time it reaches Joe Gammon's plate.

As for the UK's exports being cheaper ... well, 50% of those are financial services, so that doesn't really feed into the ordinary economy; and of the rest, those exports into the EU are going to get a lot more expensive in four-and-a-half months' time when they're subject to tariffs; and to the rest of the world, they're pretty much the same price as before because the UK has to first import the component parts using now-more-expensive foreign currency.

serfboard · 14-07-2020 5:43pm

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Even for me, the worst case scenario is that I'll have to try and get a pharma job in Ireland.

I want to preface my comments by saying that I'm not having a go at you personally since I know that you're anti-Brexit. Your post however is effectively saying: "When the shít hits the fan, I'm going to bugger off to another country."

Which is exactly what the Brexiteers will do as well. Many of the most enthusiatic backers, in fact, are not even UK residents.

If many more people are thinking like you, and them, you'd have to wonder who will be left?

I often think Brexit is a bit like the scenario from Goodfellas:

Goodfellas wrote:

And then finally, when there's nothing left, when you can't borrow another buck from the bank or buy another case of booze, you bust the joint out. You light a match.

ancapailldorcha · 14-07-2020 5:56pm

serfboard wrote: »

I want to preface my comments by saying that I'm not having a go at you personally since I know that you're anti-Brexit. Your post however is effectively saying: "When the shít hits the fan, I'm going to bugger off to another country."

Which is exactly what the Brexiteers will do as well. Many of the most enthusiatic backers, in fact, are not even UK residents.

If many more people are thinking like you, and them, you'd have to wonder who will be left?

I often think Brexit is a bit like the scenario from Goodfellas:

I'm not sure what your point is. I'm from Ireland. A large component of the Brexit vote was a backlash against immigration from EU countries.

If the British really are prepared to sacrifice so much at the altar of Brexit then why should those who can leave relatively simply stay? I don't want to leave but if I was going to live off welfare, I'd have stayed in Ireland.

I ran for office, networked, voted, marched and donated money. I'm not sure what else I'm supposed to do try and stop this.

Leroy42 · 14-07-2020 5:59pm

CelticRambler wrote: »

Yes, but the "cheaper Brazilian beef" upon which the "Brexit = cheaper food" argument was based, is now 15% dearer than at the time of the argument, which means that it's simply not going to be all that cheap by the time it reaches Joe Gammon's plate.

As for the UK's exports being cheaper ... well, 50% of those are financial services, so that doesn't really feed into the ordinary economy; and of the rest, those exports into the EU are going to get a lot more expensive in four-and-a-half months' time when they're subject to tariffs; and to the rest of the world, they're pretty much the same price as before because the UK has to first import the component parts using now-more-expensive foreign currency.

Agreed, but issue will be that once it is either the same price or even slightly cheaper than the EU beef was then it will be lauded as a success due to Brexit.

Based on the last 5 years, there is no way the normal UK voter will actually work it out for themselves that they have been conned as they are now paying close to the same price for inferior product.

Capt'n Midnight · 14-07-2020 6:01pm

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

China - "It be a pity if anything were to happen to those nuclear plants in UK we own..."

It would be even worse if nothing happened to them.

Interest building up during construction delays.

The Chinese may yet get crucial contracts for HS2 , they already have the place that makes the rails.

serfboard · 14-07-2020 6:29pm

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I'm not sure what your point is. I'm from Ireland. A large component of the Brexit vote was a backlash against immigration from EU countries.

If the British really are prepared to sacrifice so much at the altar of Brexit then why should those who can leave relatively simply stay?

As I said, I'm not having a go at you. Of course you have to look after you and yours.

My point is that it's actually awful to contemplate what the state of the country will be and who will be left when those who can leave will. It's extraordinary to watch a nation commit harakiri.

Strazdas · 14-07-2020 6:31pm

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I'm not sure what your point is. I'm from Ireland. A large component of the Brexit vote was a backlash against immigration from EU countries.

If the British really are prepared to sacrifice so much at the altar of Brexit then why should those who can leave relatively simply stay? I don't want to leave but if I was going to live off welfare, I'd have stayed in Ireland.

I ran for office, networked, voted, marched and donated money. I'm not sure what else I'm supposed to do try and stop this.

I'm amazed there nearly isn't civil unrest on the streets. The way the right wing press are controlling the narrative and telling anyone not on board the Brexit train that they must follow 'the will of the people' or else they are not democratic is beyond shocking......even telling them now that they voted for No Deal.

It's like looking in on a dictatorship a la North Korea or Belarus.

14-07-2020 7:44pm

CelticRambler wrote: »

Yes, but the "cheaper Brazilian beef" upon which the "Brexit = cheaper food" argument was based, is now 15% dearer than at the time of the argument, which means that it's simply not going to be all that cheap by the time it reaches Joe Gammon's plate.

Not exactly in 2016 the BRL - GBR was 4.2 - 1
now it is 6.2 - 1
https://www.xe.com/currencytables/?from=BRL&date=2016-07-20
https://www.xe.com/currencytables/?from=BRL&date=2020-07-14

The Brazilian Real has depreciated some 30% relative to the pound so the Brizillian beef is still cheaper.

Capt'n Midnight · 14-07-2020 8:35pm

Deleted User wrote: »

Not exactly in 2016 the BRL - GBR was 4.2 - 1
now it is 6.2 - 1
https://www.xe.com/currencytables/?from=BRL&date=2016-07-20
https://www.xe.com/currencytables/?from=BRL&date=2020-07-14

The Brazilian Real has depreciated some 30% relative to the pound so the Brizillian beef is still cheaper.

Or rather it would be cheaper if the Brazilian price didn't increase.

When the Sterling dropped after the Brexit vote exports went up.
If measured in Sterling. Measured in dollars or euros it didn't change much which put paid to any realistic hope of an export led Brexit bonus. Apart from devaluation, which failed, another way to be more competitive is to undercut the level playing field by reducing workers rights.

The Real price of Brazilian beef has gone up thanks to Chinese demand.

The price of beef in Brazil has risen 40 percent in the last two months leaving many consumers unable to afford it.

fash · 15-07-2020 11:58am

https://twitter.com/nicktolhurst/status/1283330962076598272?s=20

Taking back control AKA giving away control in a humiliating fashion.

Sam Russell · 15-07-2020 2:34pm

fash wrote: »

https://twitter.com/nicktolhurst/status/1283330962076598272?s=20

Taking back control AKA giving away control in a humiliating fashion.

But that is the way it has been since 1944.

The commanding officer for D-Day - was an American - Eisenhower.

The Korean war was the UK's issue because - ?

The UK refused to join the Vietnam war - one of the few times they went against the USA. The USA was against the Falkland's /Malvinas War - again one of the few times that UK went against the USA view.

Iraq - why did Blair think he had to get involved?

Afghanistan - what interest has the UK there?

At the UN, the UK always backs the USA viewpoint and votes with them, just like a puppet does.

The UK frequently went into the EU to defend USA issues, against the interests of the EU.

In retrospect, I am surprised the EU27 put up with them for so long.

Strazdas · 15-07-2020 5:37pm

Sam Russell wrote: »

But that is the way it has been since 1944.

The commanding officer for D-Day - was an American - Eisenhower.

The Korean war was the UK's issue because - ?

The UK refused to join the Vietnam war - one of the few times they went against the USA. The USA was against the Falkland's /Malvinas War - again one of the few times that UK went against the USA view.

Iraq - why did Blair think he had to get involved?

Afghanistan - what interest has the UK there?

At the UN, the UK always backs the USA viewpoint and votes with them, just like a puppet does.

The UK frequently went into the EU to defend USA issues, against the interests of the EU.

In retrospect, I am surprised the EU27 put up with them for so long.

The 'special relationship' is pretty much dead under Trump. I don't think he even likes Johnson or his government.....there's no sign at all they have a relationship (you never see Johnson being invited to the White House).

Capt'n Midnight · 15-07-2020 6:02pm

Strazdas wrote: »

The 'special relationship' is pretty much dead under Trump. I don't think he even likes Johnson or his government.....there's no sign at all they have a relationship (you never see Johnson being invited to the White House).

What special relationship ?

Donald Trump 'unaware UK was nuclear power', says former aide

The smart move might have been for the UK to hedge it's bets and try for a short Covid extension till after the US election rather than paint themselves into a corner, again.

Lemming · 15-07-2020 6:04pm

Sam Russell wrote: »

But that is the way it has been since 1944.

The commanding officer for D-Day - was an American - Eisenhower.

The Korean war was the UK's issue because - ?

The UK refused to join the Vietnam war - one of the few times they went against the USA. The USA was against the Falkland's /Malvinas War - again one of the few times that UK went against the USA view.

Iraq - why did Blair think he had to get involved?

Afghanistan - what interest has the UK there?

Not to disagree with the general sentiment of what you have written, but the Korean war was a UNSC sanctioned venture, not unilateralism like Vietnam, Iraq, or Afghanistan (which later got UNSC sanction).

As for D-Day, I have a vague recollection from reading the Stephen E.Ambrose book of the same name (I stand to be corrected if it wasn't that book; I just cannot remember now) that Montgomery rubbed a lot of people up the wrong way and was generally quite abrasive, so he ended up being given command of all land forces involved instead of being the overall commander.

Sam Russell · 15-07-2020 6:33pm

Lemming wrote: »

Not to disagree with the general sentiment of what you have written, but the Korean war was a UNSC sanctioned venture, not unilateralism like Vietnam, Iraq, or Afghanistan (which later got UNSC sanction).

As for D-Day, I have a vague recollection from reading the Stephen E.Ambrose book of the same name (I stand to be corrected if it wasn't that book; I just cannot remember now) that Montgomery rubbed a lot of people up the wrong way and was generally quite abrasive, so he ended up being given command of all land forces involved instead of being the overall commander.

The UK always - well nearly always - did as the USA bid. Korea was a UNSC council venture, but PRC were not in the UN (it was Chang Kai-sheck's Republic of China that had the fifth seat with a veto) so the UN sanction was a bit automatic since Russia was no friend of North Korea or the PRC at the time.

The Americans were in command on D-Day - no doubt. Montgomery was an odious little man (5 ft 5 inches) who ego was in inverse proportion to his size - his head was so big, he wore two cap badges. Any command he had was in name only - they did the same to de Gaul.

paul71 · 15-07-2020 7:18pm

Sam Russell wrote: »

The UK always - well nearly always - did as the USA bid. Korea was a UNSC council venture, but PRC were not in the UN (it was Chang Kai-sheck's Republic of China that had the fifth seat with a veto) so the UN sanction was a bit automatic since Russia was no friend of North Korea or the PRC at the time.

The Americans were in command on D-Day - no doubt. Montgomery was an odious little man (5 ft 5 inches) who ego was in inverse proportion to his size - his head was so big, he wore two cap badges. Any command he had was in name only - they did the same to de Gaul.

I recently read an opinion on Montgomery that he was the person lucky enough to be holding the Marshalls Baton at the time the Royal Navy gained superiority over the Italian Navy in the Med, thus cutting off effective resupply of the Gerrmans and Italian, and that was only the case because Britain's best General (O'Connor) had been captured the year before.

Imreoir2 · 15-07-2020 7:39pm

Sam Russell wrote: »

The UK always - well nearly always - did as the USA bid. Korea was a UNSC council venture, but PRC were not in the UN (it was Chang Kai-sheck's Republic of China that had the fifth seat with a veto) so the UN sanction was a bit automatic since Russia was no friend of North Korea or the PRC at the time.

To be fair, Stalin didn't do the whole friendship thing. N Korea wanted to reunite the Korean peninsula under their rule and Stalin gave them the tanks to do so. Friendly enough on the face of it, but he only reason he did so was becasue he wanted to use N Korea to fight a proxy war with the US to prevent any raprochment between the US and China. He wanted to keep China in his orbit and knew US involvment in Korea would force the Chinese to get inolved, souring relations between the two for years.

The USSR contrived not to veto the UN intervention in Korea for the same reason that they gave the N Koreans the material to invade the south, but not the support to win the war. Worked out a treat for Stalin, even got to pawn the N Koreans off as a client state on the Chinese.

The UK wanted nothing to do with any of it, and tried hard to prevent it all from happening, but did not have the clout to stop it and once it happened they lined up behind the US.

Seth Brundle · 15-07-2020 10:59pm

mod: let's move on from WW2 and get back to discussing Brexit

Sam Russell · 15-07-2020 11:10pm

EU powers returning to the UK as a result of Brexit is going to be a new battle ground for the devolved assemblies. Scotland claim it is a powergrab.

Fertile grounds for he SNP to gain more political capital.

Another fine mess.

eire4 · 15-07-2020 11:13pm

Sam Russell wrote: »

EU powers returning to the UK as a result of Brexit is going to be a new battle ground for the devolved assemblies. Scotland claim it is a powergrab.

Fertile grounds for he SNP to gain more political capital.

Another fine mess.

Yet another drum for them to beat in the run in to next May's Scottish assembly elections as to why Scotland needs full independence.

A Dub in Glasgo · 15-07-2020 11:20pm

Sam Russell wrote: »

Scotland claim it is a powergrab.
.

and here is exactly how they did it

Sam Russell · 15-07-2020 11:34pm

It gets worse.

I see the UK is uncertain what to do with their aircraft carriers (well they only have one at the moment) - you know, the ones they do not have any UK aircraft that can operate from the so the Americans are flying theirs from it.

If only they still had a few Empire bases to defend. I suppose they could use them to support the Americans in their next war

Capt'n Midnight · 15-07-2020 11:37pm

it's popcorn time again

Westminster is "handing" powers to the devolved governments.
The SNP are arguing that Westminster has the powers defined in the devolution agreement with Scotland having the others.

Russia report: New intelligence committee chair loses Tory whipChris Grayling won't be the chair of the Intelligence and Security Committee and won't be able to delay the report on alleged Russian interference in UK politics.

Don't expect much. It's the friction around the report that will be interesting.

The Andrew Neil Show ends as BBC News unveils cuts
This is part of the cuts that are a knock on effect of the Tories cutting the BBC budget back in the day and forcing the BBC to swallow the cost of the over 75's licences. They killed Thames Television over the Death on the Rock documentary so it wasn't an idle threat. Local radio has been eviscerated.

Capt'n Midnight · 16-07-2020 12:18am

Sam Russell wrote: »

It gets worse.

I see the UK is uncertain what to do with their aircraft carriers (well hey only have one at the moment) - you know, the ones they do not have any UK aircraft that can operate from the so the Americans are flying theirs from it.

If only they still had a few Empire bases to defend. I suppose they could use them to support the Americans in their next war

On Newsnight they were saying that one of the UK carriers will be going to the Pacific.

#TakingBackControl

The UK uses shorter range , lower payload, vertical version of the F35. That's why it's the US Marines ones on the UK carriers rather than the proper US navy ones.

This means that as far as the US is concerned a UK carrier (65,000 tonnes) is a bigger version of an Amphibious amphibious assault ship (40,000 tonnes) of which they have lots*, rather than a proper aircraft carrier (100,000 tonnes and proper F35's)

*Wasp Class (8)
America class (2 + 1 under construction)
Tarawa Class (2 in reserve)
More than all the other countries put together and bigger than most too.

BonnieSituation · 16-07-2020 2:17am

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

it's popcorn time again

Westminster is "handing" powers to the devolved governments.
The SNP are arguing that Westminster has the powers defined in the devolution agreement with Scotland having the others.

Russia report: New intelligence committee chair loses Tory whipChris Grayling won't be the chair of the Intelligence and Security Committee and won't be able to delay the report on alleged Russian interference in UK politics.

Don't expect much. It's the friction around the report that will be interesting.

The Andrew Neil Show ends as BBC News unveils cuts
This is part of the cuts that are a knock on effect of the Tories cutting the BBC budget back in the day and forcing the BBC to swallow the cost of the over 75's licences. They killed Granada over the Death on the Rock documentary so it wasn't an idle threat. Local radio has been eviscerated.

That Grayling story is pretty funny though.

And obviously more interesting if it leads to the report being published next week:

https://twitter.com/joncraig/status/1283467291578032129?s=19

Enzokk · 16-07-2020 6:41am

BonnieSituation wrote: »

That Grayling story is pretty funny though.

And obviously more interesting if it leads to the report being published next week:

https://twitter.com/joncraig/status/1283467291578032129?s=19

Yes, Graying lives up to his nickname by failing to be elected as Chair of the ISC. I suspect the other members would have been talking with Julian Lewis and in return for their support he would release the report. Kicking him out of the Conservative Party isn't going to make him consider the party when it comes to not releasing the report, if there are concerning allegations of support from Russian nationals to the party.

Sam Russell · 16-07-2020 1:07pm

I see GBP is back testing 91p to the Euro again.

Nothing going well for them.

L1011 · 16-07-2020 1:19pm

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

it's popcorn time again

Westminster is "handing" powers to the devolved governments.
The SNP are arguing that Westminster has the powers defined in the devolution agreement with Scotland having the others.

Russia report: New intelligence committee chair loses Tory whipChris Grayling won't be the chair of the Intelligence and Security Committee and won't be able to delay the report on alleged Russian interference in UK politics.

Don't expect much. It's the friction around the report that will be interesting.

The Andrew Neil Show ends as BBC News unveils cuts
This is part of the cuts that are a knock on effect of the Tories cutting the BBC budget back in the day and forcing the BBC to swallow the cost of the over 75's licences. They killed Granada over the Death on the Rock documentary so it wasn't an idle threat. Local radio has been eviscerated.

Thames not Granada. Otherwise that is what happened, lots of leaks and corruption in that bidding round and again for Channel 5s licence.

Brexit discussion thread XII (Please read OP before posting)

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