367 Days

IAMAMORON · 08-10-2020 11:47am

Dwarf.Shortage wrote: »

Why is it going to start vanishing?

I wrote a letter to the ghost of Paul Daniels.

He is getting on it.

RivetingRoger · 08-10-2020 1:18pm

Aintree cancelled last year as they said it was no good behind closed doors, fairyhouse did likewise
Hard to see them following suit this year if its still hanging around

KevH1984 · 09-10-2020 1:12pm

First AP Cheltenham bet done in recent days. Few quid on Captain Guinness at 20s in the Arkle. Will likely keep backing him over the next few weeks.

To me he looks the value currently. Shiskin was very impressive in the Supreme but this fella was running a really nice race until being brought down 2 out. Could have been in the shake up only for that.

Probably with as good a trainer of a chaser that there is so in my eyes should improve plenty for fences. Henry also has a good record in the race over the years.

No doubt Shiskin is an excellent prospect but I'd sooner take my chance with this fella at the prices.

madmoose · 09-10-2020 7:17pm

KevH1984 wrote: »

First AP Cheltenham bet done in recent days. Few quid on Captain Guinness at 20s in the Arkle. Will likely keep backing him over the next few weeks.

To me he looks the value currently. Shiskin was very impressive in the Supreme but this fella was running a really nice race until being brought down 2 out. Could have been in the shake up only for that.

Probably with as good a trainer of a chaser that there is so in my eyes should improve plenty for fences. Henry also has a good record in the race over the years.

No doubt Shiskin is an excellent prospect but I'd sooner take my chance with this fella at the prices.

He’s a great ew bet considering the Arkle will be a small field and he will likely win the Irish trials and be 7/1 or so on the day plus he was a good hurdler and look what Henry did with Notebook jumping last year who was an average hurdler!!

Plasandrunt · 09-10-2020 9:54pm

One I'll be keeping an eye on is Pic D'orhy for the Arkle. Nicholls always said he would be much better as a chaser and then he went and won the Betfair hurdle. He's very bullish about the horse comparing him possibly to Azertyioup.

KevH1984 · 19-10-2020 11:46am

madmoose wrote: »

He’s a great ew bet considering the Arkle will be a small field and he will likely win the Irish trials and be 7/1 or so on the day plus he was a good hurdler and look what Henry did with Notebook jumping last year who was an average hurdler!!

I see the Captain is down to run in a beginners chase tomorrow in Tipperary. Looks a decent race but he'll be a short price if he runs (around evs I'd say). The 20s for the Arkle is gone about a week so I've been filling my boots at 16s since, still value. Hopefully he goes well tomorrow with a solid round of jumping and the price will contract more. The dream is still alive at this stage at least.

NaiveMelodies · 19-10-2020 10:30pm

KevH1984 wrote: »

I see the Captain is down to run in a beginners chase tomorrow in Tipperary. Looks a decent race but he'll be a short price if he runs (around evs I'd say). The 20s for the Arkle is gone about a week so I've been filling my boots at 16s since, still value. Hopefully he goes well tomorrow with a solid round of jumping and the price will contract more. The dream is still alive at this stage at least.

Bet365 had him priced up at evens earlier. Madness.
Missed that but happy out with 8/11.
Will be scratching my head if he doesn't go off closer to 1/2.

akelly02 · 19-10-2020 11:52pm

NaiveMelodies wrote: »

Bet365 had him priced up at evens earlier. Madness.
Missed that but happy out with 8/11.
Will be scratching my head if he doesn't go off closer to 1/2.

Pp have him down from 25/1 to 16/1 before hes even ran

IAMAMORON · 20-10-2020 12:32am

NaiveMelodies wrote: »

Bet365 had him priced up at evens earlier. Madness.
Missed that but happy out with 8/11.
Will be scratching my head if he doesn't go off closer to 1/2.

He has to beat

Aramax - Fred Winter winner
Soviet Pimpernel - Graded Hurdle winner
Entoucas - Hurdle winner
Exit Poll - looks useful
Rebel Gold - won twice since June
Excepted - Could be anything
Dis Donc - Noel Meade is flying

There is only one horse of the 15 that is still a maiden, the rest are all winners.

+ 12 -13 fences?

I don't think he is a 1/2 shot at all. In fact he can win all day at that price if you ask me. But would you not think there are a few handier 1/2 shots floating around?

Just saying.

Imhof Tank · 20-10-2020 5:52am

No horse is value at 8/11 first time out over fences. Surely?

NaiveMelodies · 20-10-2020 7:13am

IAMAMORON wrote: »

He has to beat

Aramax - Fred Winter winner
Soviet Pimpernel - Graded Hurdle winner
Entoucas - Hurdle winner
Exit Poll - looks useful
Rebel Gold - won twice since June
Excepted - Could be anything
Dis Donc - Noel Meade is flying

There is only one horse of the 15 that is still a maiden, the rest are all winners.

+ 12 -13 fences?

I don't think he is a 1/2 shot at all. In fact he can win all day at that price if you ask me. But would you not think there are a few handier 1/2 shots floating around?

Just saying.

Yes, not the worst beginners chase field. CG should have stones on them though, especially given a number of them are definitely not out to win.

I didn't back him at 1/2? I think, given his huge promise and connections, he should be closer to 1/2. Therefore, I backed him at 8/11.

NaiveMelodies · 20-10-2020 7:26am

Imhof Tank wrote: »

No horse is value at 8/11 first time out over fences. Surely?

Loads of horses could be value at 8/11 on their fences debut IMHO.
All about opinions sure!

Slattsy · 20-10-2020 9:15am

Cant say i'd be backing horses odds on on their chase debut myself. Needs to win if he's an Arkle horse, and should win.

The bet is probably to back for the Arkle now (you probably should have backed it weeks ago anyway) and hope he wins by half track, he'll half in price.

Slattsy · 20-10-2020 9:23am

After a quick look at the Arkle betting, it wont take much for CG to go off sub 4/1 if he wins this and another one or two along the way. There's a lot in the betting that wont be running in the Arkle. Arkle's tend to have small fields as we all know, especially when something like Shishkin is in there.

I'm a Shishkin fan myself and think he's going to be a superstar, but i'm going to have a small bet each way at 16/1.

IAMAMORON · 20-10-2020 9:32am

I think the only way to beat the Arkle market is to lob in a few hail Mary's and hope for the best. As soon as anything wins a few chases its' price starts collapsing. For example if the likes of Entoucas, Saint Roi or Quick Grabim improved a stone for fences you would have a nice bit of value come March.

https://www.oddschecker.com/cheltenham-festival/arkle-chase/winner

IAMAMORON · 20-10-2020 9:50am

NaiveMelodies wrote: »

Yes, not the worst beginners chase field. CG should have stones on them though, especially given a number of them are definitely not out to win.

I didn't back him at 1/2? I think, given his huge promise and connections, he should be closer to 1/2. Therefore, I backed him at 8/11.

I am only disputing the price and given the field I think he is a lay at those prices.

He might still hack up by 10 lengths, but I would be dubious of a horse's rep being based on 2 completed races and arriving at the bottom of the Cheltenham hill on the bridle. We have all seen horsies finding nothing after. There simply has to be easier odds on shots to have your money on today?

For me its a lay and I have Dis Donc, Entoucas, Born by the Sea, Soviet Pimpernel, Rebel Gold, Exit Poll, Enexcepted etc etc to go to war with.

I tell you one thing, if CG wins his Arkle price will get obliterated, and rightly so.

NaiveMelodies · 20-10-2020 9:56am

IAMAMORON wrote: »

I am only disputing the price and given the field I think he is a lay at those prices.

That's fine. Everyone is allowed an opinion.
I only back horses that are bigger than I think they should be.

As a matter of interest, what price would you have Captain Guinness marked up at?

IAMAMORON · 20-10-2020 10:09am

NaiveMelodies wrote: »

That's fine. Everyone is allowed an opinion.
I only back horses that are bigger than I think they should be.

As a matter of interest, what price would you have Captain Guinness marked up at?

I am not a bookie. I am a punter. I only back what I think is overpriced. I will also lay if it is underpriced. I layed at 4/5 there on Betfair.

The market decides his price, but the current bookies odds are madness. Simply ridiculous value. It might turn out that half the field are out for a jog, but there will be other triers.

There is a heap of money to be made laying beginner chasers at odds on.

I just checked specials for today also. PP are offering even money. But if he arrives in any doubles in Ladbrokes or Boyles...

KevH1984 · 20-10-2020 10:27am

I'd absolutely not be a backer at his price today and will happily sit and watch. Hoping for a nice round of jumping from him and I'll be happy. That being said he should win. I just thought looking at the market a few weeks ago he was an outlier at 20s considering he would have been in the mix in the Supreme. Now it could have transpired that he found nothing up the hill I guess we'll never know. But looking at the shape of the market and potential likely runners in the Arkle at this stage I couldn't have him a 20s shot or a 16s shot for that matter.

PM me nudes · 20-10-2020 10:30am

Does anyone else not feel CG is massively overrated on what he has achieved so far?

Andy Defresne is no superstar.

Dr. Bre · 20-10-2020 10:31am

How many days is it now ?

NaiveMelodies · 20-10-2020 10:56am

IAMAMORON wrote: »

I layed at 4/5 there on Betfair.

Hahaha so shrewd. He's readily available to lay at shorter.

Slattsy · 20-10-2020 11:20am

PM me nudes wrote: »

Does anyone else not feel CG is massively overrated on what he has achieved so far?

Andy Defresne is no superstar.

You'd think he would have been a good third in the Supreme given how he was travelling. He doesn't look like a Harchibald type so would have found something!!

Plasandrunt · 20-10-2020 11:34am

payday today so I've had a few antipost punts.

Darver Star - Arkle
Abacadbras - Champion Hurdle (have been topping up on him)
Real Steel - Ryanair
Elfie - Mares Chase.
Emitom - National Hunt chase.

Slattsy · 20-10-2020 11:40am

Backed Galvin for the NH Chase the other day actually.

No word of Champagne Classic this year.

NaiveMelodies · 20-10-2020 3:56pm

PC acting up so not sure if this will send in time. Very strong word for Unexcepted so I've laid off the CG bet and gone in massively on the Mullins horse.

IAMAMORON · 20-10-2020 4:01pm

NaiveMelodies wrote: »

PC acting up so not sure if this will send in time. Very strong word for Unexcepted so I've laid off the CG bet and gone in massively on the Mullins horse.

Yeah right.

That has to be the aftertime of the century ( so far anyways ).:pac::pac:

krustydoyle · 20-10-2020 4:02pm

Did CG injure itself jumping the first in the straight on the second lap?? RB seemed very unhappy after that jump. Gave the horse a squeeze and nothing. She pulled it up then

KevH1984 · 20-10-2020 4:06pm

krustydoyle wrote: »

Did CG injure itself jumping the first in the straight on the second lap?? RB seemed very unhappy after that jump. Gave the horse a squeeze and nothing. She pulled it up then

Looked that way to me anyway, jumped it awkwardly and was unhappy immediately so done the right thing. Was jumping grand until then. Hopefully things aren't too bad with him afterwards and we can see him out again soon.

Sultan of Bling · 20-10-2020 4:12pm

NaiveMelodies wrote:

PC acting up so not sure if this will send in time. Very strong word for Unexcepted so I've laid off the CG bet and gone in massively on the Mullins horse.

Christ

IAMAMORON · 20-10-2020 4:12pm

The winner looked something else, jumped like a buck and pissed all over them.

20's for the Arkle. Best price 11's on the exchange.

https://www.oddschecker.com/cheltenham-festival/arkle-chase/winner/bet-history/unexcepted

RivetingRoger · 20-10-2020 4:29pm

NaiveMelodies wrote: »

PC acting up so not sure if this will send in time. Very strong word for Unexcepted so I've laid off the CG bet and gone in massively on the Mullins horse.

I am more disappointed than angry

Mysterypunter · 20-10-2020 4:38pm

NaiveMelodies wrote: »

PC acting up so not sure if this will send in time. Very strong word for Unexcepted so I've laid off the CG bet and gone in massively on the Mullins horse.

You can't have a bet after the race finishes, it was off at 15:51 and the winnining time was 4mins 37.3 secs. So it's a little late. Do you fancy anything running later, or maybe tomorrow as your main fancy for today Captain Guinness was unplaced at 4/6.

Slattsy · 20-10-2020 4:41pm

NaiveMelodies wrote: »

PC acting up so not sure if this will send in time. Very strong word for Unexcepted so I've laid off the CG bet and gone in massively on the Mullins horse.

Well played.

PM me nudes · 20-10-2020 4:41pm

NaiveMelodies wrote: »

PC acting up so not sure if this will send in time. Very strong word for Unexcepted so I've laid off the CG bet and gone in massively on the Mullins horse.

People have awful memories. You'd miss the day of Sting.

In taxi, data not working. Fancy Leicester to win 2015/16 premier league. Max bet

flos1964 · 20-10-2020 4:50pm

Think the man is just having a laugh isnt he....a bit of gallows humour...no.

The Mig · 20-10-2020 5:05pm

Some people ffs :pac:

Cheers for the shout Naive. Hope ya had the lot on!

NaiveMelodies · 20-10-2020 5:56pm

The Mig wrote: »

Some people ffs :pac:

Cheers for the shout Naive. Hope ya had the lot on!

Cheers man. Hope a good few got on.
Using the winnings to get the PC fixed.

Morleystreet · 20-10-2020 7:40pm

NaiveMelodies wrote: »

PC acting up so not sure if this will send in time. Very strong word for Unexcepted so I've laid off the CG bet and gone in massively on the Mullins horse.

Don't be too hard on him - he tipped up never back down to us all a few weeks back!!

Morleystreet · 22-10-2020 8:58pm

Slattsy wrote: »

Backed Galvin for the NH Chase the other day actually.

No word of Champagne Classic this year.

Galvin running Cheltenham tomorrow.

Slattsy · 22-10-2020 9:55pm

Morleystreet wrote: »

Galvin running Cheltenham tomorrow.

Assume its just to qualify? Probably only needs to be placed. Must check it out. Wouldn't surprise it he didn't win but obviously I'm not hoping they keep the handicap mark down so I hope it wins well.

Anyway I've done a wee muggy double with Galvin and Envoi Allen.

FatRat · 23-10-2020 2:34pm

Galvin will win the NH chase after that performance. Came in to write that and see that ye were already keeping an eye. Even longer would suit him judging from that

Slattsy · 23-10-2020 2:37pm

What had Galvin shortened into after that?

madmoose · 23-10-2020 2:47pm

FatRat wrote: »

Galvin will win the NH chase after that performance. Came in to write that and see that ye were already keeping an eye. Even longer would suit him judging from that

He will piss it with Codd on, they go a crawl in the nth chase so his gears will come in well later on if not heavy ground.

IAMAMORON · 23-10-2020 2:57pm

FatRat wrote: »

Galvin will win the NH chase after that performance. Came in to write that and see that ye were already keeping an eye. Even longer would suit him judging from that

Slattsy wrote: »

What had Galvin shortened into after that?

madmoose wrote: »

He will piss it with Codd on, they go a crawl in the nth chase so his gears will come in well later on if not heavy ground.

Easy game by all accounts. :pac::pac:

FatRat · 23-10-2020 4:06pm

IAMAMORON wrote: »

Easy game by all accounts. :pac::pac:

Yep. That race is decided. End of.

In fairness the NH is one of the easier races to call at Chelt. It always cuts up and ends up having half a field that obviously won't finish.

IAMAMORON · 23-10-2020 4:17pm

FatRat wrote: »

Yep. That race is decided. End of.

In fairness the NH is one of the easier races to call at Chelt. It always cuts up and ends up having half a field that obviously won't finish.

The arse is out of the value now anyway. 6/1 AP KWAYZY.

https://www.oddschecker.com/cheltenham-festival/national-hunt-chase/winner

I will be waiting until the day now.

Slattsy · 23-10-2020 5:31pm

Into 6s. Halved in price since yesterday. Ante post value has been snared.

Hopefully not another Champagne Classic, and gets pulled, though not sure I'm as bullish on Galvin as I was with CC.

Plasandrunt · 23-10-2020 7:14pm

Easywork at 25s for the RSA looks a big price to me. 2nd to Envoi Allen in the Ballymore and 2nd to a wonderful Asterion Forlonge performance at Leopardstown plus a 22l victory over Unexpected is very good form. Elliot has already said he's a stayer so with Envoi Allen probably going to the Marsh, Easywork looks to be his RSA horse

Slattsy · 23-10-2020 8:34pm

The RSA is shaping up to be one hell of a race.

367 Days

Comments