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The sun is dead!! Mini iceage???

18911131419

Comments

  • Posts: 31,118 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Duiske wrote: »
    Just something a little noteworthy, as the Sun begins it's long wind down to solar minimum.
    www.spaceweather.com
    Indeed it is, I was looking there earlier, but forgot about this thread. :o
    Here's another interesting chart, showing the solar activity over the past year.
    It's as if there is only one active region on the suns surface and it is earth facing once a month, it is showing up as a wave on the chart

    solar.png

    They're all around the other side.
    euvi_195_rotated.gif


  • Posts: 31,118 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    hmi1898.gif?PHPSESSID=mh65cmadab55irnj3c75jbvct7


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,602 ✭✭✭jaffusmax


    What a whopper!!!!


  • Posts: 31,118 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]




    Despite being the weakest sunspot cycle (to date) in out lifetime, it's still spectacular!


  • Posts: 31,118 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    We still appear to be trending towards a "little Ice Age!", summer temperatures so far this year have been nothing to write home about.
    http://www.express.co.uk/news/nature/586404/Britain-freezing-winters-slump-solar-activity
    Britain faces FREEZING winters as slump in solar activity threatens 'little Ice Age'

    BRITAIN could face colder than average winters with a plunge in solar activity threatening a new "little ice age" in the next few decades.



    Climate experts warn the amount of light and warmth released by the sun is nosediving to levels "not seen for centuries".
    They fear a repeat of the so-called 'Maunder Minimum' which triggered Arctic winter whiteouts and led to the River Thames freezing 300 years ago.
    The Met Office-led study warns although the effect will be offset by recent global warming, Britain faces years of unusually cold winters.
    A spokesman said: "A return to low solar activity not seen for centuries could increase the chances of cold winters in Europe and eastern parts of the United States but wouldn't halt global warming.
    "Return of 'grand solar minimum' could affect European and eastern US winters."
    Long episodes of low solar activity were seen during the Maunder Minimum between 1645 and 1715 and the 'Dalton Minimum' from 1790 to 1830.
    Both periods coincided with colder-than-normal global temperatures earning the title from scientists of "Little Ice Age."
    The latest study, published in Nature Communications, found reduced solar activity will lead to an overall cooling of the Earth of 0.1C.
    A much bigger cooling effect is expected for Britain, northern Europe and North America where thermometers could drop by 0.8C.

    I must order some extra turf!


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,988 ✭✭✭jacksie66


    This post has been deleted.


  • Posts: 31,118 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Meanwhile, other parts of the planet are experiencing record highs, like the heatwave that's hitting Pakistan right now.
    It's as if the global weather patterns are settling into bands of warm & cold air that are mixing less, so the hot areas are not been cooled and vice versa.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,855 ✭✭✭✭average_runner


    Meanwhile, other parts of the planet are experiencing record highs, like the heatwave that's hitting Pakistan right now.
    It's as if the global weather patterns are settling into bands of warm & cold air that are mixing less, so the hot areas are not been cooled and vice versa.


    Don't Pakistan always get a heat wave this time of year, the guys in work from there says its nothing new


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 22,597 ✭✭✭✭Akrasia


    Don't Pakistan always get a heat wave this time of year, the guys in work from there says its nothing new

    2015 is on track to smash the global average temperature record (that record was set in 2014)

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2015-06-18/this-year-is-headed-for-the-hottest-on-record-by-a-long-shot

    Anyone who thinks that global warming isn't happening, sorry, but you're completely and utterly wrong.


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  • Posts: 31,118 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Don't Pakistan always get a heat wave this time of year, the guys in work from there says its nothing new
    True, but this one appears to be more extreme than usual, probably not a record breaker though.


  • Posts: 31,118 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Akrasia wrote: »
    2015 is on track to smash the global average temperature record (that record was set in 2014)

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2015-06-18/this-year-is-headed-for-the-hottest-on-record-by-a-long-shot

    Anyone who thinks that global warming isn't happening, sorry, but you're completely and utterly wrong.
    It's an El Nino year as well, this usually bumps up the temperatures in the Pacific ocean, which is a huge area that can skew the figures if you want to get a record "global" high.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 22,597 ✭✭✭✭Akrasia


    It's an El Nino year as well, this usually bumps up the temperatures in the Pacific ocean, which is a huge area that can skew the figures if you want to get a record "global" high.
    Yeah, El Nino events tend to bump up the average temperature, but El Ninos have been happening for as long as we have been paying attention. The El Nino effect combined with global warming results in record high global average temperatures.

    It's also likely that Global warming will increase the frequency of El Nino events (According to climate models)
    http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v4/n2/full/nclimate2100.html


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 21,727 ✭✭✭✭Godge


    Akrasia wrote: »
    2015 is on track to smash the global average temperature record (that record was set in 2014)

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2015-06-18/this-year-is-headed-for-the-hottest-on-record-by-a-long-shot

    Anyone who thinks that global warming isn't happening, sorry, but you're completely and utterly wrong.


    I don't think anyone is denying global warming on this thread.

    However, three points are worthy of thought in the context that the British Isles are the warmest countries at their latitude.

    (1) Climate change may result in the British Isles losing that advantage due to changing ocean currents and atmospheric circulations. Paradoxically, while the rest of the earth is warming, the British Isles could be cooler in winter.

    (2) Arctic ice changes especially large-scale melting caused by global warming could mean cooler Atlantic ocean temperatures around the British Isles

    (3) There is a tentative link between events like the Maunder minimum and colder winters in the Northern hemisphere.

    Paradoxically, because of these localised effects, we could see an Earth with average global temperatures rising (even if temporarily the growth slows down by less activity from the Sun) but with much colder winters in the British Isles.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,483 ✭✭✭✭Supercell


    Godge wrote: »
    I don't think anyone is denying global warming on this thread.

    However, three points are worthy of thought in the context that the British Isles are the warmest countries at their latitude.

    (1) Climate change may result in the British Isles losing that advantage due to changing ocean currents and atmospheric circulations. Paradoxically, while the rest of the earth is warming, the British Isles could be cooler in winter.

    (2) Arctic ice changes especially large-scale melting caused by global warming could mean cooler Atlantic ocean temperatures around the British Isles

    (3) There is a tentative link between events like the Maunder minimum and colder winters in the Northern hemisphere.

    Paradoxically, because of these localised effects, we could see an Earth with average global temperatures rising (even if temporarily the growth slows down by less activity from the Sun) but with much colder winters in the British Isles.

    Indeed, and interestingly, that appears to be exactly what that same article shows for the global temperatures last month, note the blue area in the north atlantic!

    -1x-1.png

    Have a weather station?, why not join the Ireland Weather Network - http://irelandweather.eu/



  • Closed Accounts Posts: 21,727 ✭✭✭✭Godge


    Supercell wrote: »
    Indeed, and interestingly, that appears to be exactly what that same article shows for the global temperatures last month, note the blue area in the north atlantic!

    -1x-1.png

    Arctic ice melted very fast at the start of the melting season this year. This would explain cooler seas around Iceland and below.


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  • Posts: 31,118 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Godge wrote: »
    Arctic ice melted very fast at the start of the melting season this year. This would explain cooler seas around Iceland and below.
    Not really, the coldest area on that map (relative to average) is nowhere near the ice cap. More importantly is the fact that there have been much warmer temperatures in other areas of the Arctic that have accelerated this years melt.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 21,727 ✭✭✭✭Godge


    Not really, the coldest area on that map (relative to average) is nowhere near the ice cap. More importantly is the fact that there have been much warmer temperatures in other areas of the Arctic that have accelerated this years melt.


    Fresher water cooled by melting ice mixed with ocean currents leads to cooler North Atlantic seas.


  • Posts: 31,118 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Godge wrote: »
    Fresher water cooled by melting ice mixed with ocean currents leads to cooler North Atlantic seas.
    Quite possibly, but I think that it's more to do with a weakening Gulf stream that is not pushing as much warm water north from the Caribbean as usual.
    It appears that the melt pattern (by area) this year is similar to last year, except that the ice around north Alaska is melting faster than eastern Greenland.

    As we're about 2/3rds of the way through solar cycle 24, activity is still relatively high, so it may be too early to say that it's due to weak solar activity, but it may be enough to cause the jetstream to track further south than usual.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 22,597 ✭✭✭✭Akrasia


    Quite possibly, but I think that it's more to do with a weakening Gulf stream that is not pushing as much warm water north from the Caribbean as usual.

    Yeah, that's what this paper says

    http://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate2554.epdf?referrer_access_token=hNkSjLzg0WsXzaD2vbh1pNRgN0jAjWel9jnR3ZoTv0NAhBvJD3qQKAFJ5ZYnRB2DfVKqstvbeSrKxpKUhj2SxF7BcI_loegLGlYCV27ok_Njli4FpCNFd520NkNH-gNy_R7BHOTlk8WVlOM-EydqJ_fXB_3x-E3hIshOeW5WWHqcaPgYVH6Ha2paJACMrQS0vL1bzMOuRrJUW7F2fIb6zTOfarfleGahqDJs4nRADLaiLU5g6rQIKxir0Igbm9o6CWHumkVB6-NveR4QQcF04yFUDA2eESQkZFHTbg4BEjL4NRYUqzDNwfzQCuzM7uRD_YVpeh72TuO4azy_3UChHg%3D%3D&tracking_referrer=www.washingtonpost.com

    Technically, both points of view are correct, the slowdown of the gulf stream is related to the melting of the glaciers on greenland and the arctic, but it's not directly cooling the water, it's changing the salinity of the water and disrupting the conveyor belt that drives the gulf stream.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 21,727 ✭✭✭✭Godge


    Akrasia wrote: »
    Yeah, that's what this paper says

    http://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate2554.epdf?referrer_access_token=hNkSjLzg0WsXzaD2vbh1pNRgN0jAjWel9jnR3ZoTv0NAhBvJD3qQKAFJ5ZYnRB2DfVKqstvbeSrKxpKUhj2SxF7BcI_loegLGlYCV27ok_Njli4FpCNFd520NkNH-gNy_R7BHOTlk8WVlOM-EydqJ_fXB_3x-E3hIshOeW5WWHqcaPgYVH6Ha2paJACMrQS0vL1bzMOuRrJUW7F2fIb6zTOfarfleGahqDJs4nRADLaiLU5g6rQIKxir0Igbm9o6CWHumkVB6-NveR4QQcF04yFUDA2eESQkZFHTbg4BEjL4NRYUqzDNwfzQCuzM7uRD_YVpeh72TuO4azy_3UChHg%3D%3D&tracking_referrer=www.washingtonpost.com

    Technically, both points of view are correct, the slowdown of the gulf stream is related to the melting of the glaciers on greenland and the arctic, but it's not directly cooling the water, it's changing the salinity of the water and disrupting the conveyor belt that drives the gulf stream.



    http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2015/anomnight.5.28.2015.gif

    Whatever it is, the Atlantic to the west/south-west of Ireland remains below average temperature, despite a lot of above-average temperatures globally.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,238 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    Quite possibly, but I think that it's more to do with a weakening Gulf stream that is not pushing as much warm water north from the Caribbean as usual.

    Or possibly the first hints that the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation is about to switch.

    http://www.southampton.ac.uk/news/2015/05/28-ocean-circulation-study.page

    I would theorise that the unusual negative anomally in the N Atlantic may have possibly been enhanced by the intensity of cold air which spilled out from the N American continent over that region over recent winters.

    New Moon



  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 6,995 ✭✭✭Schadenfreudia


    Ice age seems to be coming to Dublin at least, based on DA station readings!

    After a colder than average December the difference from average temperature of the first six months of 2015:

    January -0.6C (0.6C below the 30-year average)
    Feb -1.3
    March -1.0
    April - 0.9
    May - 1.3
    June - 1.3 (up to yesterday - despite being very dry and sunny).


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 935 ✭✭✭wildefalcon




  • Posts: 31,118 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    I think that I'll wait until the next minimum ends before calling it.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 6,995 ✭✭✭Schadenfreudia


    Ice age seems to be coming to Dublin at least, based on DA station readings!

    After a colder than average December the difference from average temperature of the first six months of 2015:

    January -0.6C (0.6C below the 30-year average)
    Feb -1.3
    March -1.0
    April - 0.9
    May - 1.3
    June - 1.3 (up to yesterday - despite being very dry and sunny).

    And July is currently running at -0.8C!

    That would make it eight months in a row below the 30-year average :eek:


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,483 ✭✭✭✭Supercell


    Thats not really like with like though due to the new colder location. Pheonix park might give a more accurate picture.
    FWIW YTD I am trending -0.2 below normal,.

    Have a weather station?, why not join the Ireland Weather Network - http://irelandweather.eu/



  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 6,995 ✭✭✭Schadenfreudia


    Supercell wrote: »
    Thats not really like with like though due to the new colder location. Pheonix park might give a more accurate picture.
    FWIW YTD I am trending -0.2 below normal,.

    True, but the other Dub stations are also showing below average the past 8 months, though not to the same degree ('scuse pun) :)


  • Posts: 31,118 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Just a quick update as we're progressing towards the end of cycle 24, the fist real period of spotless sun has arrived.

    http://spaceweather.com/
    Sunspot number: 0

    What is the sunspot number?
    Updated 05 Jun 2016

    Spotless Days
    Current Stretch: 2 days
    2016 total: 2 days (1%)
    2015 total: 0 days (0%)
    2014 total: 1 day (<1%)
    2013 total: 0 days (0%)
    2012 total: 0 days (0%)
    2011 total: 2 days (<1%)
    2010 total: 51 days (14%)
    2009 total: 260 days (71%)
    Updated 05 Jun 2016


  • Posts: 31,118 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    https://wattsupwiththat.com/2016/06/30/the-sun-is-as-blank-as-a-billiard-ball-solar-activity-dwindling-to-lows-not-seen-in-200-years/
    The sun is as blank as a billiard ball, solar activity dwindling to lows not seen in 200 years
    Guest Blogger / 4 hours ago June 30, 2016

    Guest essay by David Archibald

    The latest image from the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) shows our sun as a blank canvas. No sunspots. Solar cycle 24 activity continues to be lowest in nearly 200 years
    Looks like this period of minimal sunspot activity is lasting longer than expected. We're still several years from the actual end of cycle 24.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 592 ✭✭✭hotwhiskey


    Sunspot activity is abnormally low the lowest in years.

    ''Low solar activity
    Research and empirical observations have shown that low solar activity tends to be correlated with frequent high-latitude atmospheric blocking patterns and we are now experiencing one of the weakest solar cycles (#24) in more than a century. Furthermore, this already weak solar cycle is headed rapidly towards the next solar minimum - usually the least active time in a given cycle. In fact, the last solar minimum from 2007-to-2009 registered the quietest period in at least a century.''

    So the next solar minimum phase is expected to take place around 2019 or 2020. So we are on 24 cycle since records began in 1755 this quiet phase is the weakest since 1906..

    ?format=1000w
    Solar cycle 24 is the weakest in more than a century and it is headed towards the next solar minimum suggesting even lower activity; courtesy NASA


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,559 ✭✭✭pedigree 6


    There's been a big drop in the 10.7cm Radio Flux reading in the past few weeks.
    Even a month ago it was in the 90's range. Now for the past few weeks it's been stuck in the 70's. Even today it's the lowest so far since 2010, 74.

    f10.gif
    The Radio Sun
    10.7 cm flux: 74 sfu
    explanation | more data
    Updated 08 Nov 2016

    http://spaceweather.com/


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,559 ✭✭✭pedigree 6


    This is an interesting piece from http://spaceweather.com/

    SUNSPOT CYCLE AT LOWEST LEVEL IN 5 YEARS: The sun has looked remarkably blank lately, with few dark cores interrupting the featureless solar disk.  This is a sign that Solar Minimum is coming.  Indeed, sunspot counts have just reached their lowest level since 2011. With respect to the sunspot cycle, you are here:

    solarcycle_strip2.png

    The solar cycle is like a pendulum, swinging back and forth between periods of high and low sunspot number every 11 years. These data from NOAA show that the pendulum is swinging toward low sunspot numbers even faster than expected. (The red line is the forecast; black dots are actual measurements.). Given the current progression, forecasters expect the cycle to bottom out with a deep Solar Minimum in 2019-2020.
    Solar Minimum is widely misunderstood.  Many people think it brings a period of dull quiet. In fact, space weather changes in interesting ways. For instance, as the extreme ultraviolet output of the sun decreases, the upper atmosphere of Earth cools and collapses. This allows space junk to accumulate around our planet. Also, the heliosphere shrinks, bringing interstellar space closer to Earth; galactic cosmic rays penetrate the inner solar system and our atmosphere with relative ease. (More on this below.) Meanwhile, geomagnetic storms and auroras will continue--caused mainly by solar wind streams instead of CMEs. Indeed, Solar Minimum is coming, but it won't be dull.


  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    LAYMAN terms lads?? what are we looking at here?? white Xmas???


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 29,903 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    Do we have any idea what causes the 11 year cycle?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,559 ✭✭✭pedigree 6


    Wanderer78 wrote: »
    Do we have any idea what causes the 11 year cycle?

    I think it's the polarity of the poles changing roughly every 11 years (some cycles longer, others shorter). More here...

    http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/sunearth/news/solarcycle-primer.html


  • Posts: 31,118 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    rusty cole wrote: »
    LAYMAN terms lads?? what are we looking at here?? white Xmas???
    Probably a weakening in the magnetic field around the earth, this in turn could weaken the protection from radiation that could cause an increase in skin cancer in the future amongst other things.

    We may see a few years of colder weather in this part of the world as the weather patterns that bring the warm weather north to us weaken and stay south.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,559 ✭✭✭pedigree 6


    Probably a weakening in the magnetic field around the earth, this in turn could weaken the protection from radiation that could cause an increase in skin cancer in the future amongst other things.

    We may see a few years of colder weather in this part of the world as the weather patterns that bring the warm weather north to us weaken and stay south.

    Don't agree with the first part. The sun doesn't cause our magnetic field to weaken or strengthen. That is all from the earths own internal rotating core.
    The sun might put the magnetic field under stress during a solar storm but our MF won't get weaker if ultra violet output from the sun declines a bit.
    The only thing that you might be getting at with increased chance of cancer (maybe) is an increased chance of cosmic rays entering the earths lower atmosphere.

    Loosely agree with the second part. As the winters of 09 and 10 showed us.


  • Posts: 31,118 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Yes the Earth does generate its own magnetic field, but the Sun's field can either enhance or oppose the Earth's field, depending on polarity and strength.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 592 ✭✭✭hotwhiskey


    Spotless_Nov.jpg

    This week the sun was hitting its lowest level of solar activity since 2011 (Nov. 14-18, 2016) as it gradually marches towards solar minimum. This activity is usually measured by sunspot count and over the past several days the sun has been almost spotless. The sun has a pendulum-like pattern of solar cycle of activity that extends over about an 11-year period. The last peak of activity was in early 2014. At this point in time, the sunspot numbers seem to be sliding downwards faster than expected, though the solar minimum level should not occur until 2021. No doubt more and larger sunspots will inevitably appear, but we'll just have to wait and see. Credit: Solar Dynamics Observatory, NASA.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,559 ✭✭✭pedigree 6


    The Sun has gone spotless again today.
    It looks like tomorrow could be the same.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,559 ✭✭✭pedigree 6


    That's 8 days so far this year that the sun has been spotless.
    If we were on the old system of measuring that would be everyday so far this year.

    http://spaceweather.com/


  • Posts: 31,118 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Yep! still trending downwards, I wonder how long it will be before it hits the bottom of the chart and if it ever "flatlines" like it did for the first half of 2009.
    solar-cycle-sunspot-number.gif


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 592 ✭✭✭hotwhiskey


    I'm not sure how credible this is but it is interesting looking at some of the charts posted.



    Also some more interesting reading on mass gains af Antarctic ice. Quote: The good news is that Antarctica is not currently contributing to sea level rise, but is taking 0.23 millimeters per year away.

    https://www.nasa.gov/feature/goddard/nasa-study-mass-gains-of-antarctic-ice-sheet-greater-than-losses

    Also some information for people who want to read has I had read a couple of weeks ago about the cracking in Antarctica was due to increase temperature well not entirely true.

    http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2017/01/16/509565462/an-ice-shelf-is-cracking-in-antarctica-but-not-for-the-reason-you-think

    So if Antarctica is gaining in ice why is the Artic loosing it. Does anyone know is there a comperhensive study on this between the two poles on the internet if so can you post a link.


  • Registered Users Posts: 244 ✭✭rickdangerouss


    hotwhiskey wrote: »
    I'm not sure how credible this is but it is interesting looking at some of the charts posted.



    Also some more interesting reading on mass gains af Antarctic ice. Quote: The good news is that Antarctica is not currently contributing to sea level rise, but is taking 0.23 millimeters per year away.

    https://www.nasa.gov/feature/goddard/nasa-study-mass-gains-of-antarctic-ice-sheet-greater-than-losses

    Also some information for people who want to read has I had read a couple of weeks ago about the cracking in Antarctica was due to increase temperature well not entirely true.

    http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2017/01/16/509565462/an-ice-shelf-is-cracking-in-antarctica-but-not-for-the-reason-you-think

    So if Antarctica is gaining in ice why is the Artic loosing it. Does anyone know is there a comperhensive study on this between the two poles on the internet if so can you post a link.

    The Video starts with a picture of the Express Newspaper...

    latest?cb=20100305052502


  • Posts: 31,118 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    The Video starts with a picture of the Express Newspaper...

    latest?cb=20100305052502
    That alone puts me off watching the video.


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  • Posts: 31,118 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    The first sunspot of cycle 25 is seen!

    http://www.stce.be/node/359


    An attentive sunspot observer from USET spotted on December 19 a particular interesting structure in a magnetogram. It differed from the other present structures because of its position on the solar disk and the leading black - instead of white - area. By its high latitude (23°) and reverse polarity, the small magnetic dipole definitely belonged to the next sunspot cycle. If it would get strong enough to produce sunspots, it would make it the very first sunspot group of cycle 25.

    shmi_maglc_fd_20161220_073431.png
    I know the cycles overlap but this the minimum is still several years away.

    It's that low latitude that that increases the risk of it being a false positive, otherwise cycle 25 could end up seriously overlapping 24.

    On the other hand maybe having two opposing cycles together may be the cause of the low sunspot count in the first place, one cancelling out the other.

    A thought that provokes far more question that I could possibly answer.


  • Posts: 31,118 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    hotwhiskey wrote: »
    I'm not sure how credible this is but it is interesting looking at some of the charts posted.


    I watched it in the end. :o

    Definitely an alarmist video, that appears to require a few major volcanic eruptions to kickstart the process before the "mini ice age" arrives. I would be more inclined to think that additional volcanic activity indicates an unstable magnetic influence on the Earth.
    Does this imply that a solar minimum results in an unstable magnetic field.


    Edit:
    yet another video proclaiming the coming of the next ice age, but with lots of charts.



  • Closed Accounts Posts: 592 ✭✭✭hotwhiskey


    How comet Honda has awoken the Sun with increase sunspots. Honda will pass earth around Feb 11 2017. Chance of polar storms from Jan 18.



  • Posts: 31,118 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Current Weak Solar Cycle Could Reduce Global Temperatures By Half A Degree
    https://wattsupwiththat.com/2017/03/31/current-weak-solar-cycle-could-reduce-global-temperatures-by-half-a-degree/
    Current Weak Solar Cycle Could Reduce Global Temperatures By Half A Degree
    Anthony Watts / 16 hours ago March 31, 2017

    From ​the Swiss National Science Foundation (SNSF)

    Sun’s impact on climate change quantified for first time

    A solar flare captured by NASA’s Solar Dynamics Observatory – click for much larger image

    For the first time, model calculations show a plausible way that fluctuations in solar activity could have a tangible impact on the climate. Studies funded by the Swiss National Science Foundation expect human-induced global warming to tail off slightly over the next few decades. A weaker sun could reduce temperatures by half a degree.

    There is human-induced climate change, and there are natural climate fluctuations. One important factor in the unchanging rise and fall of the Earth’s temperature and its different cycles is the sun. As its activity varies, so does the intensity of the sunlight that reaches us. One of the key questions facing climate researchers is whether these fluctuations have any effect at all on the Earth’s climate. IPCC reports assume that recent solar activity is insignificant for climate change, and that the same will apply to activity in the near future.

    Researchers from the Physical Meteorological Observatory Davos (PMOD), the Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology (EAWAG), ETH Zurich and the University of Bern are now qualifying this assumption. Their elaborate model calculations are supplying a robust estimate of the contribution that the sun is expected to make to temperature change in the next 100 years. For the first time, a significant effect is apparent. They expect the Earth’s temperature to fall by half a degree when solar activity reaches its next minimum.
    The article is written on a "climate sceptical" site, but still worth a mention that ultimately the sun provide 100% of the energy input to the earth.
    Even a weaker solar magnetic field would reduce the heating affect of the Earth's core on the surface.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,184 ✭✭✭Elmer Blooker


    hotwhiskey wrote: »
    I'm not sure how credible this is but it is interesting looking at some of the charts posted.


    Interesting connection between solar activity and increased vulcanism. I'm not sure how credible it is either but a volcano in the Kamchatka Peninsula has suddenly become active after 248 years and first major eruption for about 600 years- no tremors and no warning signs!
    This link is worth a look in my opinion. Make your own minds up.
    http://beforeitsnews.com/environment/2017/03/russian-volcano-first-major-eruption-in-600-years-following-mini-ice-age-cycles-2573203.html
    It is claimed that the very severe winter of 1739-40 was caused by volcanic activity on the Kamchatka Peninsula.


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