Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

Varta · 17-10-2019 1:28pm

farmchoice wrote: »

on point 1. i believe they all voted fro the Benn act so we can assume they do.

on point 2. they are now quite obviously much stronger, they have managed to take control of parliament and pass legislation that has hamstrung the government, they have challenged the government in court and won.

they can now decide when an election will be called and possibly have the numbers to pass an amendment to the WA necessitating a confirmatory referendum.

They haven't managed to stop Johnson getting a new deal with the EU. The circumstances today are very different to how they were last week. If Baker can change tack you can be damn sure some Labour MPs can too.

Imreoir2 · 17-10-2019 1:29pm

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Are you saying the people in NI should have no say whatsoever over these arrangements on them?

That's not right either.

The assembly will never vote to leave the arrangements. That is just practical reality and the DUP know it.

Maybe they will, probably not, but it could happen. That depends on who the people of NI choose to represent them.

The structure of this is interesting though, that two year cooling off period is key I think. Will the DUP want to launch NI into an interim period with a clock ticking down to a hard border? What is the likelyhood that such a scenario would see the conditions for a border poll being met during that interim period?

There can be no hard border unless a majority of the people of NI decide they want one, that is good enough for me.

Joe_ Public · 17-10-2019 1:29pm

Penn wrote: »

Wouldn't they need for the EU to grant an extension to hold the referendum?

Yes and a long one too. Grieve and others were in Brussels yesterday meeting EU officials so it's very possible they have got some sort of unofficial endorsement.

Imreoir2 · 17-10-2019 1:30pm

Penn wrote: »

Wouldn't they need for the EU to grant an extension to hold the referendum?

Yes, probably a six month extension. The EU would probably accept that outcome.

Dyr · 17-10-2019 1:33pm

Imreoir2 wrote: »

If an informed majority in NI want a hard border, and the abandonment of the GFA, then the peace process is effectivly dead anyway. No point trying to hang on to a peace agreement that the people no longer support.

The peace process would never have come about in the first place if it was based on an internal settlement within Northern Ireland. It was agreed and signed by two governments, not elected representatives in the six counties

I would never have voted to remove articles 2 & 3 on the basis that the GFA agreement was subject to the continued approval of the Stormont Assembly. Varadker has just removed one of the foundations of the GFA.

It's the equivalent of a solicitor adding a clause to an agreement between his client and another party can now be declared null and void by a third party.

LuckyLloyd · 17-10-2019 1:33pm

Bambi wrote: »

It was highly unlikely that UK would leave the EU
It was highly unlikely that Boris would be PM
It was highly unlikely that Dominic Cummings would be spearheading the UK governments withdrawal negotiations
It was highly unlikely that Jeremy Corybn would be leading the Labour Party in the UK.

Highly unlikely doesn't cut it when it comes the putting a hard border on this Island

I suppose it’s a slam dunk for those who want to nail Varadkar to the wall. You said ‘never’ and came back with ‘maybe’.

Again:

If we reach a point where a majority of people in NI want out of this arrangement or out of the GFA well we better get everyone back around the table and spend two years figuring it out. Creating a situation via negotiation that will leave the DUP and the harder edge of their constituency perpetually unhappy with no mechanism by which to effectively express that is as bad as locking nationalists within a hard border by dint of No Deal.

I’m very happy with this compromise: the will of NI and clear timelines to find new arrangements if necessary.

Shelga · 17-10-2019 1:33pm

The only point of an extension from an EU point of view is for a referendum, or for a GE that will result in a government that want a softer Brexit.

It's clear that neither Labour nor the Lib Dems are going to get a majority, and are incapable of working together on this matter.

Should the EU be quite clear that they will only extend for a confirmatory referendum? I imagine the EU's stance on an extension will be extremely influential for Labour MPs?

ancapailldorcha · 17-10-2019 1:34pm

Penn wrote: »

Wouldn't they need for the EU to grant an extension to hold the referendum?

Yes but I would prefer a GE to win a mandate for a referendum. Cancelling this needs to be done in a pristine manner, not a quick referendum but I won't complain too loudly if the latter happens.

dancingwith · 17-10-2019 1:34pm

I have always suspected the DUP have an issue with democracy.
I guess thats why they put the word 'Democratic' into their name, like North Korea do, just for show.

J Mysterio · 17-10-2019 1:35pm

Varta wrote: »

I think you are taking an ideological stance. It is a fact that a huge number of Labour constituencies are pro brexit. Objectively, this could be a deciding factor.

A key element is that Johnson will remove the whip from any Tories who vote against the deal.

I suspect he will also make a one time offer to those who had the whip withdrawn to have it reapplied should they vote with government.

One question is will Corbyn remove the whip from those who vote with the government?

trellheim · 17-10-2019 1:35pm

Steve Baker still not tweeting, looks like the ERG are in, must have been some line to make them swallow that.

titan18 · 17-10-2019 1:37pm

I hope/assume I'm wrong, but does this deal means custom checks for goods coming from EU into Ireland, or is it just from Ireland to UK? Just asking as BBC says the deal concerning NI as

The island will remain aligned to a limited set of EU rules, meaning goods will be checked on entry to the island, rather than across a border on the island. Is that the island of Ireland like?

J Mysterio · 17-10-2019 1:37pm

Bambi wrote: »

Leo has gone from "No hard border in Ireland" to "No hard border in Ireland unless the NI assembly says there is"

Fairly spectacular reversal.

Yes, but is that a defacto 'no hard border in Ireland' in any event?

VinLieger · 17-10-2019 1:38pm

titan18 wrote: »

I hope/assume I'm wrong, but does this deal means custom checks for goods coming from EU into Ireland, or is it just from Ireland to UK? Just asking as BBC says the deal concerning NI as

The island will remain aligned to a limited set of EU rules, meaning goods will be checked on entry to the island, rather than across a border on the island. Is that the island of Ireland like?

Thats referring to goods coming from the UK, there will be no checks on goods between Ireland and EU afaik

Rjd2 · 17-10-2019 1:38pm

J Mysterio wrote: »

One question is will Corbyn remove the whip from those who vote with the government?

He might have to. A deal would make an election very hard and he has said this is a worse deal than May's. He can't have it pass.

However two of those who are most likely to vote for it are Hoey and Skinner, he doesn't mind Hoey and he and Skinner are very close.

The others who may vote to leave such as Mann, Flint and maybe Kinnock he has no time for though.

Water John · 17-10-2019 1:38pm

EU Parliament are actually the ones to approve the Deal on the EU side, when is that to happen?

lobbylad · 17-10-2019 1:39pm

Rees Mogg in HoC has said about the debate on Saturday:

"The debate that follows will be a motion to either approve a deal or to approve a no-deal exit."

I though the HoC could only have a vote that had a Yes or No answer, not a choice?

And if his statement is true, that doesn't that avoid the Benn bill?

LuckyLloyd · 17-10-2019 1:39pm

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

The extremes of both sides will be the ones who gain from this as it brings constitutional issues to the fore, and will sideline issues like health, education, housing etc.

You've a lot of faith in the pragmatism of a body that isn't in place at the moment because unionists can't stomach a basic Irish language act.

There’s a two year cooling off period. I’m confident that it would need to be a majority of people, not politicians winning a vote due to political tricks on a particular day, that would be required. And let’s face it: if there genuinely is a majority will for a hard border or some other sort of constitutional arrangement then it needs to be facilitated.

The noise of the DUP today doesn’t take away from this compromise being hugely positive. Anything they were happy with would have been abhorrent to SF. This is far far better than the spectre of a hard border, that much is inarguable.

17-10-2019 1:40pm

J Mysterio wrote: »

One question is will Corbyn remove the whip from those who vote with the government?

He said earlier that he wouldn't. He said he prefers persuasion to threats.

Zubeneschamali · 17-10-2019 1:41pm

Varta wrote: »

I'm saying he is going to get some and it will be considerably more than 3 to 5.

You keep saying that, but you don't say why - what has changed?

How is their back against the wall? The HoC has not only voted against No Deal (as they did back in the indicative votes back in March), it has passed the Benn Act requiring the PM to avoid No Deal by requesting an extension to January, and to accept it if offered.

Johnson has said he won't do it to the press, but he has given an undertaking to the Scottish court that he WILL do it, and the court commented expressly that they were listening to his court statements, not his press waffle.

The only ones with their back against the wall are the Tory Brexiteers - if they don't get this deal through, there is a good chance that Brexit will be cancelled via a referendum and revoking of A50 while the Tory Party is attacked from the right by the Brexit party.

Rjd2 · 17-10-2019 1:41pm

8/13 on Betfair Boris loses on Saturday, and 8/15 or so with the high street bookies it loses if you want to bet in a betting shop.

That and Liverpool beating United on Sunday is my lock of the weekend.

J Mysterio · 17-10-2019 1:42pm

golfball37 wrote: »

I hope this gets passed in the HOC. Whilst Brexit is bad for Ireland it would be ridiculous and make a laugh of democracy if Britain didn't leave the EU after the result in 2016.

UK have already made a laugh of democracy. UK is in serious need of political reform (not to mind everything else).

Either way, Scotland will still want it's independence and will still want to rejoin. It seems this will be fast tracked once voted on.

Joe_ Public · 17-10-2019 1:43pm

If you were a remainer and wanted an election then short of voting Labour you're seriously reducing chances of a second vote. It's counterintuitive but that's the reality. Depending on numbers and whether Corbyn was still leader, it's likely the case that voting lib dems is actually merely boosting the Johnson position. That's why I think a lot of mps would prefer the second ref first path.

20silkcut · 17-10-2019 1:45pm

A lot of people on this thread predicted this outcome.
A lot of people in the UK did not.

It’s a tough one for remainers in the UK they are being shafted here. But the remain movement has been a massive failure over the last 3 years.
Considering 48% of the population are that way inclined that is unforgivable. Farage grabbed all the limelight at the euro elections while remainers sat on their hands divided.
But it’s also confirmation that the EU are happy to have the UK outside the EU.
You have to remember it was quite a hard fought achievement to get in back in the early 70’s .

J Mysterio · 17-10-2019 1:48pm

[Deleted User] wrote: »

He said earlier that he wouldn't. He said he prefers persuasion to threats.

In which case it makes the deal passing infinitely more likely.

Water John · 17-10-2019 1:48pm

Letwin gets the option for amendments on Sat. That's big.

ancapailldorcha · 17-10-2019 1:48pm

I've got this summary from BBC News:

What is in the deal?
Most of the deal is the same as the one agreed by Theresa May last year - the main change is the Northern Ireland proposals.

The UK will continue to abide by EU rules until the end of 2020, and possibly longer, to allow businesses to adjust
The UK will still pay an estimated £39bn "divorce bill"
The rights of EU citizens living in the UK, and UK citizens in the EU, will be guaranteed

What's changed?

Northern Ireland will be aligned to the EU single market
The controversial "backstop" - that critics feared could have kept the UK in a customs union with the EU indefinitely - has been removed
Northern Ireland will instead remain a part of the UK's customs territory, so it will be included in any future trade deals struck by the government after Brexit
But Northern Ireland will also remain an entry point into the EU's customs zone. The UK will apply tariffs to products entering Northern Ireland as long as they are not destined for onward transportation across the border
A joint EU/UK committee will decide which goods are at risk of entering the single market and the UK will collect EU tariffs on them on behalf of the EU
The Northern Ireland Assembly - which has been suspended since January 2017 - will get a vote every four years on whether to continue with the new trading arrangements
The decision would be based on a simple majority, rather than requiring a majority of both unionists and nationalists to support the rules in order for them to pass

I'm pessimistic. I don't see how the backstop can just be "removed". What happens if the Assembly, should it ever be restored decides to exercise its 4-year veto?

I'm personally unimpressed and a bit disappointed that the EU has yielded here but it's still early days.

Strazdas · 17-10-2019 1:49pm

20silkcut wrote: »

A lot of people on this thread predicted this outcome.
A lot of people in the UK did not.

It’s a tough one for remainers in the UK they are being shafted here. But the remain movement has been a massive failure over the last 3 years.
Considering 48% of the population are that way inclined that is unforgivable. Farage grabbed all the limelight at the euro elections while remainers sat on their hands divided.

Totally agree : coming out with "respecting the result of the referendum" nonsense and allowing the English far right and their media buddies to run riot and effectively take over the country.

devnull · 17-10-2019 1:49pm

lobbylad wrote: »

Rees Mogg in HoC has said about the debate on Saturday:

"The debate that follows will be a motion to either approve a deal or to approve a no-deal exit."

I though the HoC could only have a vote that had a Yes or No answer, not a choice?

And if his statement is true, that doesn't that avoid the Benn bill?

Is this their long awaited trick to bypass the Benn act?

Surely the motion will just be amended anyway?

LuckyLloyd · 17-10-2019 1:50pm

20silkcut wrote: »

A lot of people on this thread predicted this outcome.
A lot of people in the UK did not.

It’s a tough one for remainers in the UK they are being shafted here. But the remain movement has been a massive failure over the last 3 years.
Considering 48% of the population are that way inclined that is unforgivable. Farage grabbed all the limelight at the euro elections while remainers sat on their hands divided.

Yep, the Remain movement has only itself to blame. No effective protest; no strikes; no civil disobedience; complete failure to control media; little or no extraordinary parliamentary politics to try and force the issue. This deal and the consequences of it are what they deserve. To the victors go the “spoils”.

Zubeneschamali · 17-10-2019 1:51pm

Bambi wrote: »

the Irish Government just ran straight over its main red line to get this deal done, that it would not agree to anything that could create a hard border on this Island.

I was in favour of the Irish Government saying that all along, you can check my history. But I also was aware, and pointed out, that No Deal meant an instant hard border in Ireland, which we would be required by our Single Market membership to police as an EU external border.

The only reason to go for No Deal was the hope that in trade talks, the UK could be bullied into reversing course and accepting the backstop later to re-open the border. I thought (and still think) that this could happen quite quickly since No Deal will be a disaster.

But the same trade pressure can still be applied in the proposed set up - the EU can negotiate a trade deal which depends on the border staying open (through whatever means). So we get 7 years of open border, and then, if MLAs take leave of their senses and vote for a hard border, we can apply the same trade pressure to the whole UK that we could in a No Deal situation.

I don't see a downside.

MrMusician18 · 17-10-2019 1:52pm

20silkcut wrote: »

A lot of people on this thread predicted this outcome.
A lot of people in the UK did not.

It’s a tough one for remainers in the UK they are being shafted here. But the remain movement has been a massive failure over the last 3 years.
Considering 48% of the population are that way inclined that is unforgivable. Farage grabbed all the limelight at the euro elections while remainers sat on their hands divided.

In fairness, with the leave media it was always going to be hard for remain to get traction.

That said, the inability for the lib Dems and labour to coalesce around a common position (or indeed labour itself to coalesce around a common position) has led to remain neutering itself.

A great shame imo.

20silkcut · 17-10-2019 1:53pm

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

Yep, the Remain movement has only itself to blame. No effective protest; no strikes; no civil disobedience; complete failure to control media; little or no extraordinary parliamentary politics to try and force the issue. This deal and the consequences of it are what they deserve. To the victors go the “spoils”.

This is all happening under the likelihood that a majority of the population now support remain.
It is a desperate failure for them.

Headshot · 17-10-2019 1:53pm

BJ 6 defeats in a row in the UK Parliament.

This might be a chance for a confirmation referendum

Zubeneschamali · 17-10-2019 1:54pm

Penn wrote: »

Wouldn't they need for the EU to grant an extension to hold the referendum?

The need an extension anyway - there isn't time to get this all into law before the 31st.

Joe_ Public · 17-10-2019 1:55pm

Remain lost the referendum and UK should have left. What more do people think opposition could have done beyond opposing the bad deals gov was coming back with? I mean, practical things, not protests - we've had plenty of those in case folk have forgotten.

Strazdas · 17-10-2019 1:55pm

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

Yep, the Remain movement has only itself to blame. No effective protest; no strikes; no civil disobedience; complete failure to control media; little or no extraordinary parliamentary politics to try and force the issue. This deal and the consequences of it are what they deserve. To the victors go the “spoils”.

They're absolutely pathetic : terrified of the right wing press and of Leave voters

Their cowardice took their country to the brink of No Deal (and perhaps still will).

MrMusician18 · 17-10-2019 1:56pm

In a confirmatory referendum, what way would the DUP swing, presumably with remain as the other option on the ballot.

Strazdas · 17-10-2019 1:58pm

MrMusician18 wrote: »

In a confirmatory referendum, what way would the DUP swing, presumably with remain as the other option on the ballot.

Go with whatever the Tories are saying I would imagine

Varadkar looks in very good form in his live interview

MrMusician18 · 17-10-2019 2:00pm

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Remain lost the referendum and UK should have left. What more do people think opposition could have done beyond opposing the bad deals gov was coming back with? I mean, practical things, not protests - we've had plenty of those in case folk have forgotten.

Remain let the leavers control the narrative and were simply unable to get their message heard.

A simple example of this was the leavers tactic of saying something demonstrably untrue as a televised panel discussion was being wound up. Never challenged, either on the spot by refusing to let the piece be wound up or complaining afterwards. Newsnight in particular was terrible for this.

Water John · 17-10-2019 2:01pm

There is a long way to go IWT in the UK side of this yet. Johnson possibly will not get the Deal though unscathed. The optics are, he lost the first vote after concluding this historic Deal, so HOC not overly impressed.
A confimatory vote V remain may be the only option left as he may again look for a GE and not get it.
That's whn it's up to Lb, Lib Dems and others get their sh1t together and force that Referendum.

MrMusician18 · 17-10-2019 2:01pm

Strazdas wrote: »

Go with whatever the Tories are saying I would imagine

Surely the DUP couldn't back a deal in a referendum that they refused to vote for in parliament?

robinph · 17-10-2019 2:04pm

devnull wrote: »

Is this their long awaited trick to bypass the Benn act?

Surely the motion will just be amended anyway?

That has to be Mogg trying to reframe what the vote means without any actual basis in fact. If it was possible to have parliament vote in any way other than yes/no to each individual policy we wouldn't be here right now as they would have done that when the previous series of indicative votes happened.

Strazdas · 17-10-2019 2:04pm

MrMusician18 wrote: »

Surely the DUP couldn't back a deal in a referendum that they refused to vote for in parliament?

I suppose it would depend on what has happened in the meantime. A referendum would be at least two or three months away, maybe more.

Varta · 17-10-2019 2:04pm

MrMusician18 wrote: »

Remain let the leavers control the narrative and were simply unable to get their message heard.

A simple example of this was the leavers tactic of saying something demonstrably untrue as a televised panel discussion was being wound up. Never challenged, either on the spot by refusing to let the piece be wound up or complaining afterwards. Newsnight in particular was terrible for this.

That's very true, however, that was all aimed at the public, it is the remain politicians who should have done more. Brexit happened at a time when the Labour party was and still is in disarray. Even now they are having issues such as antisemitism distract them.

listermint · 17-10-2019 2:04pm

devnull wrote: »

Is this their long awaited trick to bypass the Benn act?

Surely the motion will just be amended anyway?

Have to agree with this.

The DUP are not going half as mental and they usually do. Wheres their heads exploding.

And the erg who are normally as vocal.... Saying nothing.

This is all a big trick and a poor one. No idea how the EU are falling for it.... Or are they.

I see none of this as a real deal. Tbh

Varta · 17-10-2019 2:07pm

MrMusician18 wrote: »

Surely the DUP couldn't back a deal in a referendum that they refused to vote for in parliament?

The DUP's position, whatever it might be, will be ignored by the majority of the NI electorate. They have sh*t the bed in that regard.

Strazdas · 17-10-2019 2:07pm

listermint wrote: »

Have to agree with this.

The DUP are not going half as mental and they usually do. Wheres their heads exploding.

And the erg who are normally as vocal.... Saying nothing.

This is all a big trick and a poor one. No idea how the EU are falling for it.... Or are they.

I see none of this as a real deal. Tbh

The EU and the Taoiseach are well aware of what Johnson is really like.....they wouldn't trust him

Nate--IRL-- · 17-10-2019 2:07pm

Optics are satisfied for the EU side. It this fails it will be squarely on the UK. The EU have no control over that.

NAte

jmayo · 17-10-2019 2:08pm

MrMusician18 wrote: »

Remain let the leavers control the narrative and were simply unable to get their message heard.

A simple example of this was the leavers tactic of saying something demonstrably untrue as a televised panel discussion was being wound up. Never challenged, either on the spot by refusing to let the piece be wound up or complaining afterwards. Newsnight in particular was terrible for this.

Newsnight was a disgrace.
One of the few people on there that really stood up was Gina Miller who took no shyte from the eejits in the audience who had to have been plants.

Corbyn's leadership is responsible for Labour's failure to either capitalise on a severely dysfunctional Tory party or prevent UK's exit based on a dodgy referendum where a lot of people probably regret their voting decision.

Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

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