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Rainfall Warning Mon 21-5-18
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17-05-2018 11:49am#1Not sure if this warrants a warning yet but this morning on RTE1 Radio the ME forecaster said that rain would approach the West Coast Saturday night and the front would stall into Sunday and Monday giving large accumulations of rain, she said to keep a check on the forecast as they will probably be issuing warnings. Mods if you don't think it needs a warning please remove it.Sunday: Quite the contrast to Saturday with a frontal rain band extending eastwards to affect most parts of the country during Sunday. Much cooler too with maximum temperatures falling back to the low teens. Winds will be mainly light to moderate southerly, but light to moderate northerly in western and northwestern areas.
Monday: Although there is still a degree of uncertainty as to what happens on Sunday night and into Monday, current indications suggest that Sunday's rain band stalls and gets pushed back westwards, with some heavy bursts developing in central and western areas.
NATIONAL WARNINGS
Met Eireann
Status Yellow - Rainfall warning for Longford, Cavan, Donegal, Galway, Leitrim, Roscommon, Sligo, Clare, Cork, Kerry and Limerick
A spell of rain will lead to accumulations of 25mm to 35mm of rainfall over a 24 hour period.
Issued: Sunday 20 May 2018 09:00
Valid from Sunday 20 May 2018 19:00 to Monday 21 May 2018 19:00
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Does look quite heavy on Met Éireann's rainfall graphics on Monday morning out to the west.
This to me seems like a classic prelude to a warm spell of continental air - as such happened in April with storm Irene. Irene brought up to 40-50mm in some localised spots including Valentia Observatory on April 16th.
Going by the current scenario, I expect between 20-30mm so nothing too out of the ordinary for most parts, obviously some localised locations will have more including high ground.
Don't see much harm in having this thread.
Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/
Weather photo portfolio - https://sryanbruen.myportfolio.com/weather-1
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As ever the models differ quite a bit at this stage.
All depends on the position of this long trailing front. It appears to stall and move back over the country and possibly pivot, the ARPEGE is showing that area of LP then move up slowly over the country, the ECM at ths stage keeping it off the SW until it more or less disipates . One of those scenarios that will go down to the wire.
The GFS shows most of the rain staying off the W coast
The ARPEGE shows a lot of rain from Sun , Mon into Tues with an area of LP slowly drifting up over the country ( most of the rain on Mon )
The ECM showing most of the rain moving up along the Atlantic Seaboard with the heaviest rain along coastal fringes.
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Here's the UKMO fax chart for Monday. Fronts are kinda staying out at bay to the west but a warm front nevertheless hits them bringing some rain. What's interesting on this chart though is the thundery lows over England.
Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/
Weather photo portfolio - https://sryanbruen.myportfolio.com/weather-1
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Very good post. Here we are in the third week of May and we have no idea what the summer will be like. Will it be a '95 scorcher or a grim '12 washout. We have no idea.sryanbruen wrote: »I find it ridiculous how people compare Ireland's climate to others like there is no comparison!
P.S. They don't have as changeable weather as us. They tend to have more persistent patterns due to them not having phenomena like the Gulf Stream. You can see heatwaves in said countries going for weeks but in Ireland, generally less than a week. Just one example.
In November we don't know if the coming winter will be blocked easterly or mild southwesterly mush ( usually sw mush
)
Those who live in places like Chicago or Madrid for example know what to expect in their seasons and obviously spend less time than we do talking about the weather.
Meanwhile, only 13mm has fallen at Dublin Airport so far this month and I've noticed that the green areas where the council has cut the grass are now turning yellow from lack of rain. About half of that 13mm fell in a few minutes last Friday so rain is badly needed in my parts to get growth going.
I would like a nice wave depression to give me 30-50mm but it's looking like the front will remain too far west and the east will get little or nothing.0 -
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Elmer Blooker wrote: »Very good post. Here we are in the third week of May and we have no idea what the summer will be like. Will it be a '95 scorcher or a grim '12 washout. We have no idea.
In November we don't know if the coming winter will be blocked easterly or mild southwesterly mush ( usually sw mush )
Those who live in places like Chicago or Madrid for example know what to expect in their seasons and obviously spend less time than we do talking about the weather.
Meanwhile, only 13mm has fallen at Dublin Airport so far this month and I've noticed that the green areas where the council has cut the grass are now turning yellow from lack of rain. About half of that 13mm fell in a few minutes last Friday so rain is badly needed in my parts to get growth going.
I would like a nice wave depression to give me 30-50mm but it's looking like the front will remain too far west and the east will get little or nothing.
We've had enough rain during March so I'm fine with this. Looks like I'm not the only person who thinks this May has been very dry in Dublin.0 -
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Sunday looks like mostly patchy light rain, drizzle , misty sort of a day until turning heavier up along Atlantic coastal counties late Sunday/early Monday and looks set to continue raining in some form most of the day along coastal counties as it lightens towards Monday evening. At this stage I would think somewhere between the ECM and the ARPEGE veering more to the ECM which has been very consistent in the last few runs. Met Eireann still saying uncertain regards Monday. Looks like the E will escape most of the rain.
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Elmer Blooker wrote: »"only" 17.8mm! I got a mm overnight and 13mm so far in May.
I'll have to get the watering cans out this evening. There is no rain on the horizon after today so there will be drought conditions in my area by the end of the month.
Lucky for some
we have had close to 80mm so far this month. 0 -
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