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Rainfall Warning Mon 21-5-18

  • 17-05-2018 11:49am
    #1
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,975 ✭✭✭


    Not sure if this warrants a warning yet but this morning on RTE1 Radio the ME forecaster said that rain would approach the West Coast Saturday night and the front would stall into Sunday and Monday giving large accumulations of rain, she said to keep a check on the forecast as they will probably be issuing warnings. Mods if you don't think it needs a warning please remove it.
    Sunday: Quite the contrast to Saturday with a frontal rain band extending eastwards to affect most parts of the country during Sunday. Much cooler too with maximum temperatures falling back to the low teens. Winds will be mainly light to moderate southerly, but light to moderate northerly in western and northwestern areas.

    Monday: Although there is still a degree of uncertainty as to what happens on Sunday night and into Monday, current indications suggest that Sunday's rain band stalls and gets pushed back westwards, with some heavy bursts developing in central and western areas.


    NATIONAL WARNINGS

    Met Eireann


    Status Yellow - Rainfall warning for Longford, Cavan, Donegal, Galway, Leitrim, Roscommon, Sligo, Clare, Cork, Kerry and Limerick
    A spell of rain will lead to accumulations of 25mm to 35mm of rainfall over a 24 hour period.

    Issued: Sunday 20 May 2018 09:00

    Valid from Sunday 20 May 2018 19:00 to Monday 21 May 2018 19:00

    cOw5b5l.png


Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,673 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    Does look quite heavy on Met Éireann's rainfall graphics on Monday morning out to the west.

    This to me seems like a classic prelude to a warm spell of continental air - as such happened in April with storm Irene. Irene brought up to 40-50mm in some localised spots including Valentia Observatory on April 16th.

    Going by the current scenario, I expect between 20-30mm so nothing too out of the ordinary for most parts, obviously some localised locations will have more including high ground.

    Don't see much harm in having this thread.

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,981 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    Hopefully this rain stays as far away out in the Atlantic as possible. This is definitely something to keep an eye on and warnings may be issued closer to the time.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,219 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Think the Coasts of the West will see most.

    Mayo and Galway coasts, Maybe Kerry

    Mace Hd, Newport, Belmullet will be vying for highest amounts


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,143 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    As ever the models differ quite a bit at this stage.

    All depends on the position of this long trailing front. It appears to stall and move back over the country and possibly pivot, the ARPEGE is showing that area of LP then move up slowly over the country, the ECM at ths stage keeping it off the SW until it more or less disipates . One of those scenarios that will go down to the wire.


    bSjYPTX.png?1


    7jykHG7.png

    The GFS shows most of the rain staying off the W coast
    The ARPEGE shows a lot of rain from Sun , Mon into Tues with an area of LP slowly drifting up over the country ( most of the rain on Mon )
    The ECM showing most of the rain moving up along the Atlantic Seaboard with the heaviest rain along coastal fringes.

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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,485 ✭✭✭Jpmarn


    The latest models have downgraded this rainfall event by a big factor. Met.ie are forecasting a dull day with patchy outbreaks of rain. The GFS models on netweather.tv also agrees with much of the country staying mainly dry with heavy bursts possible along the west coast. Risk of heavy and thundery showers next Thursday and Friday but mainly fine and warm weather with temperatures up in low 20s throughout next week.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,673 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    Here's the UKMO fax chart for Monday. Fronts are kinda staying out at bay to the west but a warm front nevertheless hits them bringing some rain. What's interesting on this chart though is the thundery lows over England.

    A6tyfAQ.gif


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,434 ✭✭✭fepper


    Id think that Ireland biggest industry years ago was agriculture which does heavily rely on weather forecasts and all conversations seems to include weather as lots of people involved in agriculture in some way back then so I suppose it just part of our vocabulary now


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,975 ✭✭✭Storm 10


    As pointed out this is a dedicated weather forum, we have posters here who spend long hours of their own time posting charts and forecasts way ahead of them happening which is greatly appreciated by everyone here. Sometimes they don't happen which is the nature of Irish weather but when they do at least we have been well warned in advance.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,187 ✭✭✭Elmer Blooker


    sryanbruen wrote: »
    I find it ridiculous how people compare Ireland's climate to others like there is no comparison!

    P.S. They don't have as changeable weather as us. They tend to have more persistent patterns due to them not having phenomena like the Gulf Stream. You can see heatwaves in said countries going for weeks but in Ireland, generally less than a week. Just one example.
    Very good post. Here we are in the third week of May and we have no idea what the summer will be like. Will it be a '95 scorcher or a grim '12 washout. We have no idea.
    In November we don't know if the coming winter will be blocked easterly or mild southwesterly mush ( usually sw mush :( )
    Those who live in places like Chicago or Madrid for example know what to expect in their seasons and obviously spend less time than we do talking about the weather.

    Meanwhile, only 13mm has fallen at Dublin Airport so far this month and I've noticed that the green areas where the council has cut the grass are now turning yellow from lack of rain. About half of that 13mm fell in a few minutes last Friday so rain is badly needed in my parts to get growth going.
    I would like a nice wave depression to give me 30-50mm but it's looking like the front will remain too far west and the east will get little or nothing.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,219 ✭✭✭pauldry


    yes in Ireland we even say

    "fierce cloudy weather"

    Which is what this heavy rain event will bring to most bar coastlines of West and Northwest


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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,027 ✭✭✭Artane2002


    Very good post. Here we are in the third week of May and we have no idea what the summer will be like. Will it be a '95 scorcher or a grim '12 washout. We have no idea.
    In November we don't know if the coming winter will be blocked easterly or mild southwesterly mush ( usually sw mush :( )
    Those who live in places like Chicago or Madrid for example know what to expect in their seasons and obviously spend less time than we do talking about the weather.

    Meanwhile, only 13mm has fallen at Dublin Airport so far this month and I've noticed that the green areas where the council has cut the grass are now turning yellow from lack of rain. About half of that 13mm fell in a few minutes last Friday so rain is badly needed in my parts to get growth going.
    I would like a nice wave depression to give me 30-50mm but it's looking like the front will remain too far west and the east will get little or nothing.

    We've had enough rain during March so I'm fine with this. Looks like I'm not the only person who thinks this May has been very dry in Dublin.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,241 ✭✭✭sdanseo


    HIRLAM having absolutely none of this at least as far as its range goes (14h Sunday)

    A spell of 1-2mm/hr is all:

    hirlamuk-1-38-0.png?18-18


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,143 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Sunday looks like mostly patchy light rain, drizzle , misty sort of a day until turning heavier up along Atlantic coastal counties late Sunday/early Monday and looks set to continue raining in some form most of the day along coastal counties as it lightens towards Monday evening. At this stage I would think somewhere between the ECM and the ARPEGE veering more to the ECM which has been very consistent in the last few runs. Met Eireann still saying uncertain regards Monday. Looks like the E will escape most of the rain.

    arpegeuk-25-75-0_ybz1.png

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  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 11,775 Mod ✭✭✭✭igCorcaigh


    Any thunderstorms forecast with this? ME is displaying a thunder icon for Munster.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,255 ✭✭✭✭JCX BXC


    NATIONAL WARNINGS
    Status Yellow - Rainfall warning for Longford, Cavan, Donegal, Galway, Leitrim, Roscommon, Sligo, Clare, Cork, Kerry and Limerick
    A spell of rain will lead to accumulations of 25mm to 35mm of rainfall over a 24 hour period.

    Issued: Sunday 20 May 2018 09:00

    Valid from Sunday 20 May 2018 19:00 to Monday 21 May 2018 19:00

    Weather warning issued.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,255 ✭✭✭✭JCX BXC


    igCorcaigh wrote: »
    Any thunderstorms forecast with this? ME is displaying a thunder icon for Munster.

    ME have displayed thunder for my locations days ahead now, any time they've had it in the past on the new app has been completely inaccurate so I don't think it's going to verify this time, especially considering no mention in their written forecast.

    Automated forecasts do not match human interpreted forecasts at all.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 48,256 ✭✭✭✭km79


    JCX BXC wrote: »
    Weather warning issued.

    Mayo not in warning?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,255 ✭✭✭✭JCX BXC


    km79 wrote: »
    Mayo not in warning?

    It appears not!

    An error I'd imagine.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,143 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Weak warm front today and stalled fronts over the country tomorrow being blocked by HP over Scandinavia

    WhbRfqx.gif


    deGTA1h.gif

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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,634 ✭✭✭✭Graces7


    JCX BXC wrote: »
    It appears not!

    An error I'd imagine.

    Has been heavy rain in West Mayo. Now muted into a thick, drenching drizzly mist and the wind has stilled.


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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,143 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Coming up on 6mm here near Tralee for today so far. Overcast and raining/ heavy drizzle more or less since early afternoon.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,882 ✭✭✭✭Rock Lesnar


    Lashing down here since about 8pm, 1st time in a long time i can hear it on the roof, a real horrible crappy night out there.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,143 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    10mm here near Tralee up to midnight, and raining. Some stronger rain off the coast edging slowly towards the us.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,634 ✭✭✭✭Graces7


    Graces7 wrote: »
    Has been heavy rain in West Mayo. Now muted into a thick, drenching drizzly mist and the wind has stilled.

    And still Mayo got no mention after a night of deluge?i


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,506 ✭✭✭✭Xenji


    Graces7 wrote: »
    And still Mayo got no mention after a night of deluge?i

    We have only had 17.8mm in the last 12 hours in Castlebar, nothing out of the ordinary really.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,595 ✭✭✭kingshankly


    What has become of us warnings now for a bit of rain it’s normal weather for Christ sake


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,187 ✭✭✭Elmer Blooker


    Xenji wrote: »
    We have only had 17.8mm in the last 12 hours in Castlebar, nothing out of the ordinary really.
    "only" 17.8mm! I got a mm overnight and 13mm so far in May.
    I'll have to get the watering cans out this evening. There is no rain on the horizon after today so there will be drought conditions in my area by the end of the month.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,981 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    yesterday was mostly dry here, a bit damp at times, but it did rain last night. However it's almost dry already, the ground needed it badly. It's starting to brighten up here now and the temperature has risen sharply over the past hour to 17C.

    It's possible that there may not be any more rain in this area of South Meath for the next 1 to 2 weeks.


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,506 ✭✭✭✭Xenji


    "only" 17.8mm! I got a mm overnight and 13mm so far in May.
    I'll have to get the watering cans out this evening. There is no rain on the horizon after today so there will be drought conditions in my area by the end of the month.

    Lucky for some :) we have had close to 80mm so far this month.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,321 ✭✭✭snowstreams


    I noticed that my garden was very mossy after the cool wet spring but it was really starting to dry out until last nights heavy rain.
    That rain last night should come in handy for this next warm spell.
    We've had 44mm now so far in May, most of that must have been last night!


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,255 ✭✭✭✭JCX BXC


    30mm from event here in West Clare.


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,693 ✭✭✭SleetAndSnow


    nothing much here in Cork City. Its just been spitting rain since I went to bed last night/woke up this morning and now.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,673 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    Such a boring spell of weather since Friday at Grange with absolutely nothing going on. Barely any sunshine, lots of cloud. It started to rain yesterday afternoon but it was very light and patchy. Last night was pouring, it kept me up for some bit with the noise of it. Today has just been very cloudy with some rain this afternoon. Big contrasts in the country today in terms of temperatures.

    https://twitter.com/Arklowweather/status/998588692364226561


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,027 ✭✭✭Artane2002


    sryanbruen wrote: »
    Such a boring spell of weather since Friday at Grange with absolutely nothing going on. Barely any sunshine, lots of cloud. It started to rain yesterday afternoon but it was very light and patchy. Last night was pouring, it kept me up for some bit with the noise of it. Today has just been very cloudy with some rain this afternoon. Big contrasts in the country today in terms of temperatures.

    https://twitter.com/Arklowweather/status/998588692364226561
    I didn't know it rained heavily last night because the ground was quite dry. I agree that it has been boring but hopefully that changes for the better.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,785 ✭✭✭piuswal


    JCX BXC wrote: »
    It appears not!

    An error I'd imagine.

    Still missing, surely it would have been noticed by now if an error!

    Maybe great confidence in their model!


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,685 ✭✭✭Mobhi1


    There was 1.0mm of rain recorded today although I never saw any of it and the ground's dry. It's cooled down a lot in the last couple of hours and the breeze has picked up. It's 11.8C now after a high of 18.3C a couple of hours ago. There was even some hazy sunshine earlier.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,981 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    the brief warmth we had in the early afternoon didn't last long. light drizzle for past 2 hours and temps nose dived from 17c, back down to 10C in only a few hours.

    Hopefully a big improvement from tomorrow. Once again the difference between Ireland and the UK mainland is seasons apart over the past two days. Looking forward to some warmth, sun and dryness over the next week.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 48,256 ✭✭✭✭km79


    Had 10 mm in athenry by midnight and probably double that again by midday
    Warning was spot on


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,219 ✭✭✭pauldry


    sligo town had over 20mm

    nothing out of the ordinary but possibly nowhere near 20mm in total from now till June


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,143 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    29mm here near Tralee since yesterday afternoon, 15.2 mm since midnight. Rain petered out mid afternoon, overcast with a few drops in the wind since, cloud breaking up a bit this evening giving reasonable light. Cool .


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,255 ✭✭✭✭JCX BXC


    sryanbruen wrote: »
    Such a boring spell of weather since Friday at Grange with absolutely nothing going on. Barely any sunshine, lots of cloud. It started to rain yesterday afternoon but it was very light and patchy. Last night was pouring, it kept me up for some bit with the noise of it. Today has just been very cloudy with some rain this afternoon. Big contrasts in the country today in terms of temperatures.

    Did you note that the 19.1c in Carlow was not an air temperature but a road temperature?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,673 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    JCX BXC wrote: »
    Did you note that the 19.1c in Carlow was not an air temperature but a road temperature?

    No because Arklow Weather asked me to share it on the thread.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,238 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    27.1mm here from the 'event' here. Rain never got any heavier than 'gentle' at any one stage. Very sharp looking back edge to that front over me now with some stunning high based altocumulus floccus.

    New Moon



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,673 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    Rainfall totals (mm) for Irish stations for Sunday 20th and Monday 21st May 2018.

    Station|Sunday 20th|Monday 21st|Total for both days
    Athenry|9.9|17.8|27.7
    Ballyhaise|4.7|17.6|22.3
    Claremorris|5.9|13.5|19.4
    Finner Camp|3.7|13.8|17.5
    Gurteen|4.9|18.3|23.2
    Knock Airport|6.4|16.0|22.4
    Mace Head|13.2|8.6|21.8
    Malin Head|2.2|18.1|20.3
    Markree Castle|7.0|12.4|19.4
    Mt Dillon|10.7|20.9|31.6
    Newport Furnace|12.8|8.9|21.7
    Shannon Airport|11.8|15.9|27.7
    Sherkin Island|24.0|12.6|36.6
    Valentia Observatory|27.5|14.6|42.1


    Data comes from Met Éireann.

    Some heavy rainfalls like 42.1mm during the 48-hour period at Valentia Observatory but nothing too out of the ordinary for Ireland.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 48,256 ✭✭✭✭km79


    That’s in line with what i thought
    30mm or so


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