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Rainfall Warning Mon 21-5-18

Storm 10

Not sure if this warrants a warning yet but this morning on RTE1 Radio the ME forecaster said that rain would approach the West Coast Saturday night and the front would stall into Sunday and Monday giving large accumulations of rain, she said to keep a check on the forecast as they will probably be issuing warnings. Mods if you don't think it needs a warning please remove it.

Sunday: Quite the contrast to Saturday with a frontal rain band extending eastwards to affect most parts of the country during Sunday. Much cooler too with maximum temperatures falling back to the low teens. Winds will be mainly light to moderate southerly, but light to moderate northerly in western and northwestern areas.

Monday: Although there is still a degree of uncertainty as to what happens on Sunday night and into Monday, current indications suggest that Sunday's rain band stalls and gets pushed back westwards, with some heavy bursts developing in central and western areas.

NATIONAL WARNINGS

Met Eireann

Status Yellow - Rainfall warning for Longford, Cavan, Donegal, Galway, Leitrim, Roscommon, Sligo, Clare, Cork, Kerry and Limerick
A spell of rain will lead to accumulations of 25mm to 35mm of rainfall over a 24 hour period.

Issued: Sunday 20 May 2018 09:00

Valid from Sunday 20 May 2018 19:00 to Monday 21 May 2018 19:00

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sryanbruen

Does look quite heavy on Met Éireann's rainfall graphics on Monday morning out to the west.

This to me seems like a classic prelude to a warm spell of continental air - as such happened in April with storm Irene. Irene brought up to 40-50mm in some localised spots including Valentia Observatory on April 16th.

Going by the current scenario, I expect between 20-30mm so nothing too out of the ordinary for most parts, obviously some localised locations will have more including high ground.

Don't see much harm in having this thread.

Gonzo

Hopefully this rain stays as far away out in the Atlantic as possible. This is definitely something to keep an eye on and warnings may be issued closer to the time.

pauldry

Think the Coasts of the West will see most.

Mayo and Galway coasts, Maybe Kerry

Mace Hd, Newport, Belmullet will be vying for highest amounts

Meteorite58

As ever the models differ quite a bit at this stage.

All depends on the position of this long trailing front. It appears to stall and move back over the country and possibly pivot, the ARPEGE is showing that area of LP then move up slowly over the country, the ECM at ths stage keeping it off the SW until it more or less disipates . One of those scenarios that will go down to the wire.

bSjYPTX.png?1

The GFS shows most of the rain staying off the W coast
The ARPEGE shows a lot of rain from Sun , Mon into Tues with an area of LP slowly drifting up over the country ( most of the rain on Mon )
The ECM showing most of the rain moving up along the Atlantic Seaboard with the heaviest rain along coastal fringes.

Jpmarn

The latest models have downgraded this rainfall event by a big factor. Met.ie are forecasting a dull day with patchy outbreaks of rain. The GFS models on netweather.tv also agrees with much of the country staying mainly dry with heavy bursts possible along the west coast. Risk of heavy and thundery showers next Thursday and Friday but mainly fine and warm weather with temperatures up in low 20s throughout next week.

sryanbruen

Here's the UKMO fax chart for Monday. Fronts are kinda staying out at bay to the west but a warm front nevertheless hits them bringing some rain. What's interesting on this chart though is the thundery lows over England.

fepper

Id think that Ireland biggest industry years ago was agriculture which does heavily rely on weather forecasts and all conversations seems to include weather as lots of people involved in agriculture in some way back then so I suppose it just part of our vocabulary now

Storm 10

As pointed out this is a dedicated weather forum, we have posters here who spend long hours of their own time posting charts and forecasts way ahead of them happening which is greatly appreciated by everyone here. Sometimes they don't happen which is the nature of Irish weather but when they do at least we have been well warned in advance.

Elmer Blooker

sryanbruen wrote: »

I find it ridiculous how people compare Ireland's climate to others like there is no comparison!

P.S. They don't have as changeable weather as us. They tend to have more persistent patterns due to them not having phenomena like the Gulf Stream. You can see heatwaves in said countries going for weeks but in Ireland, generally less than a week. Just one example.

Very good post. Here we are in the third week of May and we have no idea what the summer will be like. Will it be a '95 scorcher or a grim '12 washout. We have no idea.
In November we don't know if the coming winter will be blocked easterly or mild southwesterly mush ( usually sw mush

)
Those who live in places like Chicago or Madrid for example know what to expect in their seasons and obviously spend less time than we do talking about the weather.

Meanwhile, only 13mm has fallen at Dublin Airport so far this month and I've noticed that the green areas where the council has cut the grass are now turning yellow from lack of rain. About half of that 13mm fell in a few minutes last Friday so rain is badly needed in my parts to get growth going.
I would like a nice wave depression to give me 30-50mm but it's looking like the front will remain too far west and the east will get little or nothing.

pauldry

yes in Ireland we even say

"fierce cloudy weather"

Which is what this heavy rain event will bring to most bar coastlines of West and Northwest

Artane2002

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

Very good post. Here we are in the third week of May and we have no idea what the summer will be like. Will it be a '95 scorcher or a grim '12 washout. We have no idea.
In November we don't know if the coming winter will be blocked easterly or mild southwesterly mush ( usually sw mush )
Those who live in places like Chicago or Madrid for example know what to expect in their seasons and obviously spend less time than we do talking about the weather.

Meanwhile, only 13mm has fallen at Dublin Airport so far this month and I've noticed that the green areas where the council has cut the grass are now turning yellow from lack of rain. About half of that 13mm fell in a few minutes last Friday so rain is badly needed in my parts to get growth going.
I would like a nice wave depression to give me 30-50mm but it's looking like the front will remain too far west and the east will get little or nothing.

We've had enough rain during March so I'm fine with this. Looks like I'm not the only person who thinks this May has been very dry in Dublin.

sdanseo

HIRLAM having absolutely none of this at least as far as its range goes (14h Sunday)

A spell of 1-2mm/hr is all:

hirlamuk-1-38-0.png?18-18

Meteorite58

Sunday looks like mostly patchy light rain, drizzle , misty sort of a day until turning heavier up along Atlantic coastal counties late Sunday/early Monday and looks set to continue raining in some form most of the day along coastal counties as it lightens towards Monday evening. At this stage I would think somewhere between the ECM and the ARPEGE veering more to the ECM which has been very consistent in the last few runs. Met Eireann still saying uncertain regards Monday. Looks like the E will escape most of the rain.

igCorcaigh

Any thunderstorms forecast with this? ME is displaying a thunder icon for Munster.

JCX BXC

Met Eireann wrote:

NATIONAL WARNINGS
Status Yellow - Rainfall warning for Longford, Cavan, Donegal, Galway, Leitrim, Roscommon, Sligo, Clare, Cork, Kerry and Limerick
A spell of rain will lead to accumulations of 25mm to 35mm of rainfall over a 24 hour period.

Issued: Sunday 20 May 2018 09:00

Valid from Sunday 20 May 2018 19:00 to Monday 21 May 2018 19:00

Weather warning issued.

JCX BXC

igCorcaigh wrote: »

Any thunderstorms forecast with this? ME is displaying a thunder icon for Munster.

ME have displayed thunder for my locations days ahead now, any time they've had it in the past on the new app has been completely inaccurate so I don't think it's going to verify this time, especially considering no mention in their written forecast.

Automated forecasts do not match human interpreted forecasts at all.

km79

JCX BXC wrote: »

Weather warning issued.

Mayo not in warning?

JCX BXC

km79 wrote: »

Mayo not in warning?

It appears not!

An error I'd imagine.

Meteorite58

Weak warm front today and stalled fronts over the country tomorrow being blocked by HP over Scandinavia

Graces7

JCX BXC wrote: »

It appears not!

An error I'd imagine.

Has been heavy rain in West Mayo. Now muted into a thick, drenching drizzly mist and the wind has stilled.

Meteorite58

Coming up on 6mm here near Tralee for today so far. Overcast and raining/ heavy drizzle more or less since early afternoon.

Rock Lesnar

Lashing down here since about 8pm, 1st time in a long time i can hear it on the roof, a real horrible crappy night out there.

Meteorite58

10mm here near Tralee up to midnight, and raining. Some stronger rain off the coast edging slowly towards the us.

JKQbkmr.jpg?1

Graces7

Graces7 wrote: »

Has been heavy rain in West Mayo. Now muted into a thick, drenching drizzly mist and the wind has stilled.

And still Mayo got no mention after a night of deluge?i

Xenji

Graces7 wrote: »

And still Mayo got no mention after a night of deluge?i

We have only had 17.8mm in the last 12 hours in Castlebar, nothing out of the ordinary really.

kingshankly

What has become of us warnings now for a bit of rain it’s normal weather for Christ sake

Elmer Blooker

Xenji wrote: »

We have only had 17.8mm in the last 12 hours in Castlebar, nothing out of the ordinary really.

"only" 17.8mm! I got a mm overnight and 13mm so far in May.
I'll have to get the watering cans out this evening. There is no rain on the horizon after today so there will be drought conditions in my area by the end of the month.

Gonzo

yesterday was mostly dry here, a bit damp at times, but it did rain last night. However it's almost dry already, the ground needed it badly. It's starting to brighten up here now and the temperature has risen sharply over the past hour to 17C.

It's possible that there may not be any more rain in this area of South Meath for the next 1 to 2 weeks.

Xenji

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

"only" 17.8mm! I got a mm overnight and 13mm so far in May.
I'll have to get the watering cans out this evening. There is no rain on the horizon after today so there will be drought conditions in my area by the end of the month.

Lucky for some

we have had close to 80mm so far this month.

snowstreams

I noticed that my garden was very mossy after the cool wet spring but it was really starting to dry out until last nights heavy rain.
That rain last night should come in handy for this next warm spell.
We've had 44mm now so far in May, most of that must have been last night!