UFC/MMA Gambling. NO AFTER-TIMING

SDTimeout · 02-10-2011 10:56am

Was really annoyed when I came home from work last night and saw that Paul Sass won by Submission. I wasn't able to bet on that method last night because Paddy weren't offering the market. He was 6/4 to win alone though.:(

Devastator · 02-10-2011 4:50pm

SDTimeout wrote: »

Was really annoyed when I came home from work last night and saw that Paul Sass won by Submission. I wasn't able to bet on that method last night because Paddy weren't offering the market. He was 6/4 to win alone though.:(

They only offered win by market on 2 fights last night. They usually don't offer anything other than straight win market on fight nights/ufc live anyway, only the numbered events would have the main card offering more markets(sometimes a big pre lim also)

loremolis · 03-10-2011 7:01pm

Anyone got any predictions for UFC 136 at the weekend.

I'll got for Edgar, Aldo, Sonnen and Guillard in the main event.

mailburner · 03-10-2011 7:19pm

loremolis wrote: »

Anyone got any predictions for UFC 136 at the weekend.

I'll got for Edgar, Aldo, Sonnen and Guillard in the main event.

can't see past guillard and aldo myself
uncle chael i reckon will get past stann and pettis should
be far too quick for stephens

cant call edgar maynard myself

im thinking of going with the guillard aldo pettis treble for betting purposes

Mellor · 05-10-2011 2:28am

My picks,
Guillard
Sonnen
Pettis
Aldo

I'm leaving the main event out of any bets. There is no value to be hard here, its too close and pretty well priced. I'd lean towards Gray purely because he is a better price at the minute. But neither fighter represents a good bet.

weemcd · 06-10-2011 5:09pm

mailburner wrote: »

im thinking of going with the guillard aldo pettis treble for betting purposes

+1 This.

Anyone looking at Stann? I think this fight is probably closer than the odds make out. In the time Sonenn has been sidelined, Stann has stopped 3 opponents. In fairness none of the opponents were of Sonenn's calibre, but ring rust can definitely play a part in this.

Something tells me to put 2 quid on a stann/florian double, just for the odds

Mellor · 07-10-2011 1:18am

weemcd wrote: »

+1 This.

Anyone looking at Stann? I think this fight is probably closer than the odds make out. In the time Sonenn has been sidelined, Stann has stopped 3 opponents. In fairness none of the opponents were of Sonenn's calibre, but ring rust can definitely play a part in this.

Something tells me to put 2 quid on a stann/florian double, just for the odds

????
+1 to the guillard aldo/pettis/treble, then you say florian/stann double.

It's really stupid to make both of those bets.

p to the e · 07-10-2011 5:31pm

nobody going for the Maia fight? I think he looks a lot stronger than Jorge both in ground and stand up game. His boxing has improved considerably. I stuck an accumulator on Maia, Guillard, Sonnen and Florian. I was wrecking my head trying to decide for the main card so just left it out altogether.

ShagNastii · 07-10-2011 6:02pm

Really great card for an accumulator some very callable fights.

Will probably throw a few quid on

Guillard
Aldo
Sonnen
Beltran
Nam Phan

fightireland · 08-10-2011 11:47am

Blew most of the rainy day fund on Ireland this morning but in an effort to get it back I have posted a betting guide on the site and you can all claim €30 with Skybet - it's all here Enjoy!

RAMPAGE1 · 08-10-2011 12:21pm

Did a lucky 31
Aldo (sub)
Lauzon (sub)
stann (ko)
Maia (sub)
Maynard (ko)

loremolis · 08-10-2011 12:49pm

RAMPAGE1 wrote: »

Did a lucky 31
Aldo (sub)
Lauzon (sub)
stann (ko)
Maia (sub)
Maynard (ko)

Can someone explain what a "lucky 31" is?

SDTimeout · 08-10-2011 1:02pm

loremolis wrote: »

Can someone explain what a "lucky 31" is?

It's 31 different bets. 5 singles, 10 doubles, 10 trebles, 5 fourfolds and a fivefold accumulator.

Put 1€ on it and you pay 31€ in the bookies. The pay out of a 31€ stake on that is 16,000+

mailburner · 08-10-2011 2:55pm

gone a bit mad this time but what the hell

singles on

guillard to win in round 1 @ 2/1 (lads)
I don't think lauzon will get guillard to the ground and that will
mean curtains for him imo and i don't see him getting past round
one given how explosive guillard is

maynard to win in round 1 @ 12/1 (pp) only 15/2 with ladbrokes
(was tempted by maynard by ko at 6s also)
I think it's a big price considering how close he came to a ko last
time out and if he had connected properly when edgar went down
they he would have got it

double on
guillard to win in round one 2/1 with pettis on points 11/8 (lads)
I can't see past pettis and think he will be far too quick for stephens but
it's unlikely he'll finish stephens who will no doubt be swinging for
the rafters right up till the end

ive all but convinced myself that whatever happens this time
in the main event that maynard won't lose
he doesnt deserve to be odds against imo
maybe the countdown made my mind up for me but i just
feel he'll die out there rather than leave without the belt this time
I had edgar backed last time they met and i was very relieved
to get my stake back with the draw thinking he had just lost out.

maynard by points is value at 15/8 also compared to edgar by points 4/5 but
i feel a points win is the only way edgar can win this

still haven't decided if ill do the treble of aldo, pettis and guillard yet
it works out best with boyles on those three

i just feel these three are different class to their opponents

was tempted by sonnen but i don't see him as a 2/5 shot
it'll be a points win i reckon if he does it but i dont see it
being comfortable and im sure stann will be well prepared
for everything sonnen throws at him
the odds for a sonnen points win says it all really (4/7)
i hope sonnen wins as silva will make mincemeat of stann
the stann points win might look big at 13/2 though and i feel
if he does pull it off that this method is the only way i can
see him doing it

mailburner · 09-10-2011 10:49pm

what a fecking disaster

couldn't have got that much more wrong

was stunned when guillard got clipped
I thought he was closing in on a title shot and couldnt
see anyway of him losing this

was jumping around the place thinking i was close to
a 12/1 winner when maynard caught edgar in the first.

one of those days for me

scudzilla · 26-10-2011 5:40am

CroCop on Points is a cracking 7/1 on PP, i think he's still got it in him and Nelson's gas tank is suspect to say the least, put that alongside CroCop's recent lack of Aggression and ya could see a nice payout.

An even better value double is CroCop on Points and Diaz on Points, returns 256Euro for a tenner stake

Ian Whelan · 26-10-2011 10:58am

scudzilla wrote: »

CroCop on Points is a cracking 7/1 on PP, i think he's still got it in him and Nelson's gas tank is suspect to say the least, put that alongside CroCop's recent lack of Aggression and ya could see a nice payout.

An even better value double is CroCop on Points and Diaz on Points, returns 256Euro for a tenner stake

Good luck with those. It's my view that Cro Cop will need to knock Nelson out to win this fight. If it does go the distance it's really difficult to see Nelson not securing a couple of takedowns and if he gets it to the ground it'll be hard for Cro Cop to manage. I think that Nelson will win this one in the second round.

The Belcher · 26-10-2011 12:50pm

Ah I dunno, betting on Crocop in any form is a disaster, I've done it myself loads of times. I keep hearing his interviews and vids on training etc and keep hoping he'll at least go back to being more aggressive and every time I'm left disappointed. I could never back the man ever again to be honest. Wouldn't be at all surprised if Country lands a big wild overhand right and ko's him. I read somewhere that Country got some mild form of pneomonia before his last fight so could explain how bad his cardio was.
Best of luck with the bet though, it'd make my day to see Crocop pull it off.

CageWager · 26-10-2011 2:28pm

Hi guys, im a frequent visitor to these boards but not a very frequent poster. Im starting up a MMA betting blog, I wont mention the name because I guess thats advertising (maybe someone can clarify that for me, its not for profit or anything, i do this for every mma event for my own benefit, just decided to finally post it for others to read). anyway, im going to post my 137 breakdown below for you to check out.

Overview
Here is my breakdown of UFC 137. There are 6 fights where odds are offered by the major online bookmakers. I have included my top picks and the best odds available. I have rated my picks between 1 and 3, 1 being a tentative selection and 3 being a certainty in my opinion.

Big Country V Crocop
With both fighters coming off a 2 fight losing streak this could well be a loser leaves town match. Although they share a 2 fight slide, the couple of brutal KO’s suffered by Crocop leave a far greater doubt hanging over his head (or more importantly his chin) than the 2 gruelling decision losses suffered by Nelson. Crocop has been looking more and more like a shadow of his former self of late and I think most fans agree that it may well be the time to call it a day on an illustrious career. Roy Nelson on the other hand is still a fighter will plenty to offer, albeit not as a title contender. He has found himself in the unenviable position, much like Kenny Florian of late, whereby he’s better than most of the top tier heavyweights but is unable to compete with the elites of the division.
I believe this fight comes down to the suspect chin of Crocop and the undisputed iron jaw of Big Country(The man has only suffered 1 KO loss in 21 Fights). I can be confidant that if a 3 round barrage of Junior Dos Santos Bombs can’t put Nelson away then an aging Crocop won’t have much luck. Unlike the Croatian, Nelson has multiple options to win the fight. He is a vaunted Renzo Gracie Black Belt and would enjoy a significant edge if the fight goes to the ground, and has enough pop in his hands to put away the likes of Brendan Schaub and Stefan Struve by KO. I believe Nelson will absorb whatever Crocop has to throw at him and put him away in the 3rd frame by KO.
In terms of best odds, Bwin.com offer up 3/8 (0.375) for a Big Country (3 Points)Triumph, hardly anything to get excited about on its own, but it will fit nicely into my UFC137 Accumulator.

Nelson: 1/3 Paddy Power, 5/14 Ladbrokes, 3/10 Bet 365
Crocop: 2/1 Paddy Power, 23/10 Ladbrokes, 12/5 Bet365

Tyson Griffin V Bart Palaszewski
Palaszewski has been given an extremely tough assignment for his UFC debut. For a man who hasn’t fought for almost a year due to injury, Joe Silva certainly isn’t easing him into the Big Show. Although he has a solid record and some big name scalps (namely Anthony Pettis) Palaszewski just won’t have enough to deal with the skills of Griffin, who despite going 1-3 in his last 4 fights (including 2 split decisions in the losing column) is going to outwork and outclass his opponent much the same as his most recent outing against Manny Gamburyan. I see this one going to Griffin by Unanimous Decision.
This is another fight where the bookies are probably spot on with their line. The best you can get for a Tyson Griffin (3 Points) win is 4/11 (0.36) with Paddy Power or Boylesports. There is no real underdog value here either for the romantics out there, the most you can get your hands on for a Palaszewski win is 5/2 (2.5) with Bet365. Another one for the Accumulator.

Griffin: 4/11 Paddy Power, 5/14 Ladbrokes, 2/7 Bet365
Palaszewski: 15/8 Paddy Power, 23/10 Ladbrokes, 5/2 Bet365

Donald Cerrone V Denis Siver
Cowboy hasn’t done much wrong in his last 5 fights, culminating in a 1st round knockout of the night over Brazilian prospect Charles Oliveria. This will be his 4th fight of 2011 and his 2nd in just over 2 months. I believe that although Cerrone brings great striking and wicked submissions he just won’t have enough to get past the skill set of Siver. The Russian born German will have an advantage on the feet and has proven difficult to take down in the past. Cerrone has a big name and a great camp, but I feel the oddsmakers have overlooked the quiet and unassuming Siver. I see the German outpointing the cowboy over 3 rounds.
At 15/8 (1.875) with Betfred and Bet365, Siver (2 Points) represents some underdog value in my book.

Cerrone: 2/5 Paddy Power, 5/11 Ladbrokes, 2/5 Bet365
Siver: 7/4 Paddy Power, 9/5 Ladbrokes, 15/8 Bet365

Hatsu Hioki V George Roop
Whenever a fighter comes into the UFC with a huge amount of hype surrounding him the markets tend to overreact. Whenever I see a newcomer slated as the prohibitive 2/7 favourite in his debut I immediately look to the underdog to sniff out some value. Having done my research I can conclude that this value definitely exists. Going by the past year’s results, seeing a successful Japanese fighter debut in the UFC as a heavy favourite is a red herring. I’m a big fan of Japanese fighters but there is a noticeable pattern, and I bet with my head, not my heart. Patterns like this cannot be ignored:
JAPANESE FIGHTERS IN THE UFC (Last 2 years)
*with the exception of Yushin Okami
Takanori Gomi 1-3
Kid Yamamoto 0-1
Takeya Mizugaki 1-1
Michihiro Omigawa 0-2
Yoshihiro Akiyama 1-3
Riki Fukuda 0-1
Total wins: 3/14 (21%)
Total losses 11/14 (79%)

I think in terms of the fight itself, Roop being the bigger and stronger figher will allow him to exploit the fact that Japanese fighters clearly don’t adjust well to the UFC. I see him using his reach to pick away at Hioki who carries all the pressure and expectation on his shoulders. It is impossible to use past fights with different fighters to predict the outcome in this one but at odds of 5/2 (2.5) with Bet365 I’m willing to take a chance on the trend continuing with a Roop (1 Point) decision win over the Japanese star.

Hioki: 2/7 Paddy Power/Bet365, 1/3 Ladbrokes
Roop: 9/4 Paddy Power, 12/5 Ladbrokes, 5/2 Bet365

Cheick Kongo V Matt Mitrione
I couldn’t be more impressed by Matt Mitrione’s UFC career to date. Who would have thought that when he was eliminated from season 10 of TUF at the quarter final stage that he would go on to post a 5-0 mark in the UFC in just under 2 years. He has shown rapid improvement in all areas of his game and has established himself as a finisher, putting away all but the iron chinned Joey Beltran by either KO or TKO. Cheick Kongo is a long established name in the UFC but has always flattered to deceive. Despite his astonishing comeback KO of Pat Barry in June, he will not have enough to deal with Mitrione, who going by form will have improved since his latest outing, a brutal KO of Christian Morecraft. I see Mitrione adding another knockout to his collection, his most impressive to date and he will continue to ascend the 265lb ladder.
Best odds for Mitrione (2 Points) are 4/5 (0.8) with Sportingbet.com

Kongo: 11/10 Paddy Power, 6/5 Ladbrokes/Bet365
Mitrione: 4/6 Paddy Power, 2/3 Ladbrokes, 4/6 Bet365

BJ Penn V Nick Diaz
The main event sees 2 of my favourite fighters go at it in what is sure to be an instant classic. Both men bring exceptional skill sets to the table, world class Jiu Jitsu and some of the best boxing we’ve ever seen in MMA will be on display October 29th. BJ is coming off a difficult period in his career where he has gone 1-2-1 in his last 4 fights with the win being a 0.21 second KO of an over the hill Matt Hughes. Despite this he is still BJ Penn and is extremely dangerous no matter when you fight him. Diaz on the other hand is riding a 10 fight win streak, albeit against lesser competition, but impressive nonetheless. I believe that this match is truly a coin toss, and either man could win in multiple ways. So in order to determine a winner I am forced to drill down into the smaller details that may swing the fight in one direction or another when great skill on both sides may cancel each other out. I can see why Penn is the favourite and most people’s pick to win but I think in the absence of any gaping edge in the stand-up or ground departments this fight could become a tale of conditioning and reach. BJ is a great boxer but will have a very tough time getting anything past the rangy Diaz. I think the Caesar Gracie fighter will look to push a ferocious pace and exploit Penn’s suspect gas tank. This fight could go either way and I certainly will be watching this fight with interest while keeping my cash for another betting opportunity but I will take Nick Diaz to win by TKO in the 3rd round for a small stake.

Diaz (1 Point) is available at evens (1.0) from Paddy Power.
Penn: 8/11 Paddy Power, 20/21 Ladbrokes, 20/23 Bet365
Diaz: 1/1 Paddy Power, 20/23 Ladbrokes/Bet365

Final Selections and Odds
For this card I will be doing a six man accumulator as follows:
*All placed with Paddy Power
1.Tyson Griffin 4/11
2. Roy Nelson 1/3
3. Denis Siver 7/4
4. George Roop 9/4
5. Matt Mitrione 4/6
6. Nick Diaz 1/1
This will return €54.17 for a €1 stake
And:
Underdog double
1. Denis Siver 7/4
2. George Roop 9/4

This will return €8.94 for €1 stake

Minowaman · 26-10-2011 7:48pm

Your breakdown isn't bad, although I would disagree with that Japanese connection. I know that fighters often lose when they go to the UFC but
1. Kid Yamamoto hasn't been the same fighter since his injury and was given a very tough fight for his 1st fight in the UFC.
2. Gomi has been past his prime for years.
3. Fukuda won that fight
4. Omigawa won one of those fights
5. Hioki is in his prime and training in the US (I believe) and Roop isn't actually a very good fighter

Also, big accumulators are not the way to go in the long run.

CageWager · 26-10-2011 10:04pm

Minowaman wrote: »

Your breakdown isn't bad, although I would disagree with that Japanese connection. I know that fighters often lose when they go to the UFC but
1. Kid Yamamoto hasn't been the same fighter since his injury and was given a very tough fight for his 1st fight in the UFC.
2. Gomi has been past his prime for years.
3. Fukuda won that fight
4. Omigawa won one of those fights
5. Hioki is in his prime and training in the US (I believe) and Roop isn't actually a very good fighter

Also, big accumulators are not the way to go in the long run.

Fair points, im not a fan of accumulators, usually do big singles but there was no one on this card id be willing to put €500-1k on to win at the odds available.

You make a good case for Hioki, he looks good alright, i'll be very interested to see how he gets on..

fightireland · 27-10-2011 3:50pm

For what it's worth my tip of the weekend is a €/£10 accumulator on Penn, Mitrione, Roop, Griffin, Cerrone, Jorgenson and Nijem wins you 250!

Skybet are doing a tenner free bet to new customers - HERE

Denners.ie · 27-10-2011 3:55pm

Diaz seems like the best value I have seen in a while tbh.

Diaz forces a relentless pace and the cardio lacking Penn will eventually wilt imo.

mailburner · 28-10-2011 12:48pm

Denners.ie wrote: »

Diaz seems like the best value I have seen in a while tbh.

been thinking that also since this fight was made

mailburner · 28-10-2011 6:33pm

went for the double of
mitrione and diaz at 5/7+21/20 (lads)

i've a big bet on by my standards
I'm quite confident but after schaub and more
recently guillard i'm not expecting anything anymore

really like mitrione and can see him taking everything
kongo throws at him and winning
i think diaz will frustrate penn with his reach and win
a comfortable points decision

was tempted by diaz points at 2s also

mailburner · 30-10-2011 2:07am

small bet with tiny stake for an interest

doubles and trebles on

crocop points 11/2
roop points 9/2
mitrione points 4/1

unlikely, but you never know

MrsStuffings · 30-10-2011 2:12am

20 notes on a diaz win at 2.08 on betfair. fingers crossed.

yesno1234 · 30-10-2011 4:14am

Lads anyone a stream for the fight, gonna watch my first UFC fight:D

Cheers, and apologies if it's against the charter.

CageWager · 03-11-2011 10:01pm

I know theres not much gambling excitement to be found on this card but I do fancy a punt on Brad Pickett at 11/10 to beat Renan Barao. Pickett always caught my eye when he fought in the WEC, especially when beating Demetrious Johnson.. Barao, although he's on a crazy 26 fight win streak hasn't really beaten anyone of note thus far.

Anyone have any inspiration for the other fights?

Mellor · 04-11-2011 5:55am

Munoz at 2/3 sounds good to me
Or 3/1 by decision sounds good too

UFC/MMA Gambling. **NO AFTER-TIMING**

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UFC/MMA Gambling. NO AFTER-TIMING