Boards.ie uses cookies. By continuing to browse this site you are agreeing to our use of cookies. Click here to find out more x
Post Reply  
 
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
31-07-2020, 21:00   #1081
Blut2
Registered User
 
Join Date: Feb 2010
Posts: 1,296
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dav010 View Post
Central Dublin is also the main rental area for IT/financial services, most of whom were told to work from home and many of whom left their rentals. The Daft Q1 report recorded this increase in availability and outlined that though there was certainly some movement from short let to long let, that particular movement had little baring on the rental market when compared to other reasons.

Students don’t look for rentals mid March, but when Colleges close for the academic year, they leave and go home, now they are not looking for rentals because it is unlikely that colleges will be going back to physical attendance until the new year at the earliest.
Google only went WFH on March 3rd, and other tech/finance firms were later. And all were initially temporary. Are you suggesting that between March 3rd and March 21st hundreds of tech staff instantly broke their leases on apartments, in one select area of Dublin, mid-month (having presumably already paid the full month's rent), and walked away, allowing their apartments to instantaneously reenter the market? Thats absolute nonsense.

Again re: students - so how exactly would that effect the supply of rentals in Dublin central between March 1st and March 21st? Which is when the increase in availability in question happened. Students weren't moving out of apartments in that time period.
Blut2 is offline  
Advertisement
31-07-2020, 21:05   #1082
TSQ
Registered User
 
TSQ's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2015
Posts: 249
Quote:
Originally Posted by Blut2 View Post
And how would any of those factors explain a 64% increase in the volume of available apartments in one area of Dublin (Dublin central), in a 3 week period from March 1st -> March 21st? Literally hundreds of apartments all becoming available in a very short space of time, in an area that also happens to be the most tourism heavy area of the city?

As of March 21st Ireland hadn't even fully locked down. The eviction ban only came into effect on March 19th so had prevented effectively nobody from being evicted, most offices hadn't even moved to WFH yet (nevermind their workers migrating from cities), and students don't look for accommodation/move mid-semester in March.

The only thing that had actually already happened by that stage was a disastrous decline in tourism numbers.
Well, I just dont believe there was a mass movement out of airbnb to long term rentals due to covid, since no-one knew at that stage there would be a lockdown, nor how long it would last, or could have imagined the devastating impact on tourism. I dont know where you got that percentage from : does Daft issue such stats on a weekly basis? I think there may have been a trickle from airbnb to long term due to publicity round the enforcement of the rules against short term lets. There were a small number of obvious of ex-airbnbs when I was looking in March and April (the quality of the photography and the folded towels gave the game away).
TSQ is offline  
31-07-2020, 21:09   #1083
AngryLips
Registered User
 
Join Date: Sep 2010
Posts: 1,820
Quote:
Originally Posted by jon1981 View Post
Overseas investors still believe there's gold to be found in the rental game here in Ireland.

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/...15657?mode=amp

This is to be welcomed, anything to increase both supply and quality can only be a good thing ...price drops will follow
AngryLips is offline  
31-07-2020, 21:11   #1084
Dav010
Registered User
 
Dav010's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2018
Posts: 3,301
Quote:
Originally Posted by Blut2 View Post
Google only went WFH on March 3rd, and other tech/finance firms were later. And all were initially temporary. Are you suggesting that between March 3rd and March 21st hundreds of tech staff instantly broke their leases on apartments, in one select area of Dublin, mid-month (having presumably already paid the full month's rent), and walked away, allowing their apartments to instantaneously reenter the market? Thats absolute nonsense.

Again re: students - so how exactly would that effect the supply of rentals in Dublin central between March 1st and March 21st? Which is when the increase in availability in question happened. Students weren't moving out of apartments in that time period.
Might be worth reading Daft Q1 report. They seem to know a bit about this kinda stuff.

I just can’t understand the gravity some people seem to give the effect of movement of short lets to tenancies. Short lets make up a minuscule percentage of overall lets and though some think they all went away, Airbnb ad numbers seem to say otherwise.

Last edited by Dav010; 31-07-2020 at 21:18.
Dav010 is online now  
31-07-2020, 21:18   #1085
Blut2
Registered User
 
Join Date: Feb 2010
Posts: 1,296
Quote:
Originally Posted by TSQ View Post
Well, I just dont believe there was a mass movement out of airbnb to long term rentals due to covid, since no-one knew at that stage there would be a lockdown, nor how long it would last, or could have imagined the devastating impact on tourism. I dont know where you got that percentage from : does Daft issue such stats on a weekly basis? I think there may have been a trickle from airbnb to long term due to publicity round the enforcement of the rules against short term lets. There were a small number of obvious of ex-airbnbs when I was looking in March and April (the quality of the photography and the folded towels gave the game away).
https://www.independent.ie/business/...-39061809.html

- an increase of 64% in supply
- constituting hundreds of apartments
- in one small area of Dublin
- in a very short three week window
- that also happens to be the most tourism heavy area of the city
- long before the wider economic damage from corona hit
- but at a time when tourism numbers had already dropped off a cliff

Short of any other valid explanations being offered anyway - Dav010's didn't exactly stand up to scrutiny - airbnbs coming to market are the logical explanation.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dav010 View Post
Might be worth reading Daft Q1 report.
To quite Daft themselves relating to the time period/increase in supply in question:

"As Airbnb is a large platform for short-term listings it seems highly probable that many of the new rental stock seen on Daft.ie was previously posted on Airbnb, Daft.ie said."
Blut2 is offline  
(4) thanks from:
Advertisement
31-07-2020, 21:26   #1086
Dav010
Registered User
 
Dav010's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2018
Posts: 3,301
Quote:
Originally Posted by Blut2 View Post
https://www.independent.ie/business/...-39061809.html

- an increase of 64% in supply
- constituting hundreds of apartments
- in one small area of Dublin
- in a very short three week window
- that also happens to be the most tourism heavy area of the city
- long before the wider economic damage from corona hit
- but at a time when tourism numbers had already dropped off a cliff

Short of any other valid explanations being offered anyway - Dav010's didn't exactly stand up to scrutiny - airbnbs coming to market are the logical explanation.



To quite Daft themselves relating to the time period/increase in supply in question:

"As Airbnb is a large platform for short-term listings it seems highly probable that many of the new rental stock seen on Daft.ie was previously posted on Airbnb, Daft.ie said."
You seem to be fixated on short lets and think that they are the reason for increased availability. It is strange that you are ignoring far more obvious reasons compared to a tiny percentage of the market.

I’ve no doubt now that some short lets have converted to long. Airbnb is a large platform for short lets, but short lets still only account for 1% of total lets and the site shows that listings have remained pretty much constant despite planning regs and Covid.

If many short lets have left Airbnb, they must have been replaced with new listings if the numbers have remained pretty much as they were.

Last edited by Dav010; 31-07-2020 at 21:58.
Dav010 is online now  
03-08-2020, 09:37   #1087
TSQ
Registered User
 
TSQ's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2015
Posts: 249
Quote:
Originally Posted by Blut2 View Post
https://www.independent.ie/business/...-39061809.html

- an increase of 64% in supply
- constituting hundreds of apartments
- in one small area of Dublin
- in a very short three week window
- that also happens to be the most tourism heavy area of the city
- long before the wider economic damage from corona hit
- but at a time when tourism numbers had already dropped off a cliff

Short of any other valid explanations being offered anyway - Dav010's didn't exactly stand up to scrutiny - airbnbs coming to market are the logical explanation.



To quite Daft themselves relating to the time period/increase in supply in question:

"As Airbnb is a large platform for short-term listings it seems highly probable that many of the new rental stock seen on Daft.ie was previously posted on Airbnb, Daft.ie said."
Opinion is not fact, no matter if held by Dr Ronan Lyons “tend to be”, “probably” is opinion based on lazy assumptions. And the numbers dont make any sense even on the most casual glance: a 60% increase in “these kind of properties”, 400 adverts v 242 for the same period last year... so that looks like an almost 100% increase. You do realise for example that many hundreds of student rooms have been added to the rental market in exactly the same central area, and that these are advertised as 1 bed apts, even though they are in fact shared accommodation, so one 4 or 5 bed apt in the likes of Buckley Hall for example adds 5 units to the rental market in Dublin. And Buckley Hall is just one of several such huge developments which have been brought to market in the last 18 months.
TSQ is offline  
03-08-2020, 09:59   #1088
Smouse156
Registered User
 
Smouse156's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2020
Posts: 99
2006 is to house prices as 2019 is to rent prices.
Landlord will be calling it the “good ole days” for years to come (bar those with bad tenants)

https://www.independent.ie/irish-new...-39416434.html
Smouse156 is offline  
03-08-2020, 10:10   #1089
Dav010
Registered User
 
Dav010's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2018
Posts: 3,301
Quote:
Originally Posted by Smouse156 View Post
2006 is to house prices as 2019 is to rent prices.
Landlord will be calling it the “good ole days” for years to come (bar those with bad tenants)

https://www.independent.ie/irish-new...-39416434.html
You could be right, we may not see rental prices like that again for a while. But there are many variables/unknowns at the moment. What will demand be like when colleges reopen for physical attendance and workers are back in their offices? And what effect will the decrease in property build completions/LLs selling up have on supply when demand increases? No one knows right now, but as always, if demand outstrips supply, prices will rise. I think it is pointless basing anything on current advertisements, few people are moving, lots of workers have left rentals and gone home, no students and no leases being terminated by LLs, all these are likely to change as soon as it is safe to reopen fully.
Dav010 is online now  
Advertisement
03-08-2020, 10:19   #1090
JJJackal
Registered User
 
JJJackal's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2019
Posts: 817
The increase supply of rental from short term to long term is also only a one-off gain. It wont occur again. Likely some will move back to short term rental as time goes by
JJJackal is offline  
03-08-2020, 13:31   #1091
Claw Hammer
Registered User
 
Join Date: Nov 2013
Posts: 3,459
Quote:
Originally Posted by Smouse156 View Post
2006 is to house prices as 2019 is to rent prices.
Landlord will be calling it the “good ole days” for years to come (bar those with bad tenants)

https://www.independent.ie/irish-new...-39416434.html
The rental market has always been cyclical as long as I have followed it. The cycles tend to be about 4 years long. It is likely 2019 was the top of the cycle, Covid or no Covid. A softening rental market tends to make some landlords bail out and prospective investors hold back. After a few years of this a shortage develops and rents rise again for a period. A situation where sales are strong and rents weak will cause many landlords to offload.
Claw Hammer is offline  
Thanks from:
03-08-2020, 13:34   #1092
ebayissues
Registered User
 
Join Date: Oct 2011
Posts: 281
Has anyone seen changes in prices for house shares? I have not. I still see silly prices going for box rooms.
ebayissues is offline  
04-08-2020, 14:25   #1093
Assetbacked
Registered User
 
Assetbacked's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2015
Posts: 2,342
Quote:
Originally Posted by ebayissues View Post
Has anyone seen changes in prices for house shares? I have not. I still see silly prices going for box rooms.
Are you seeing these on Daft or on Facebook groups? I follow some of those Facebook rental groups and the activity under the new posts is extremely low so, while the asking prices may be crazy, it doesn't look like they are getting people in as easily.

I presume the new monthly housing report from Daft is still going ahead? If so, it should be published before the end of this week for July.

Last edited by Assetbacked; 04-08-2020 at 14:28.
Assetbacked is offline  
04-08-2020, 16:19   #1094
redarmyblues
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Posts: 829
Quote:
Originally Posted by AngryLips View Post
This is to be welcomed, anything to increase both supply and quality can only be a good thing ...price drops will follow
At 457K per unit and a total of 317 units I doubt this will result in a cheap rent Nirvana in Dublin. If this trend continues it might put a squeeze on the bottom end of the market where the risk of default is higher, in fairness who will want to invest in this market. The state may or will have to step in acting as a middleman to make up the shortfall, renting off LLs to rent to tenants.
redarmyblues is offline  
04-08-2020, 16:23   #1095
AngryLips
Registered User
 
Join Date: Sep 2010
Posts: 1,820
Quote:
Originally Posted by redarmyblues View Post
At 457K per unit and a total of 317 units I doubt this will result in a cheap rent Nirvana in Dublin. If this trend continues it might put a squeeze on the bottom end of the market where the risk of default is higher, in fairness who will want to invest in this market. The state may or will have to step in acting as a middleman to make up the shortfall, renting off LLs to rent to tenants.

317 units is a lot. How else do people think rents will go down if not for supply and demand movements?
AngryLips is offline  
Post Reply

Quick Reply
Message:
Remove Text Formatting
Bold
Italic
Underline

Insert Image
Wrap [QUOTE] tags around selected text
 
Decrease Size
Increase Size
Please sign up or log in to join the discussion

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search



Share Tweet