Covid19 Part XIX-25,802 in ROI (1,753 deaths) 5,859 in NI (556 deaths) (21/07)Read OP

timsey tiger · 09-07-2020 11:51pm

Lyle wrote: »

At the brief they said the vast majority were linked in clusters, with some of the travel cases also linked to (or starting?) clusters. Community transmission still representing a very low percentage of cases they're catching.

With community transmission we are unlikely to turn up many under 25 year olds.

In community transmission scenario the case has to be symptomatic enough to prompt them to go and get a test. Very few under 25s will suffer a sever enough reaction to the virus to prompt this.

Under 25s will most likely turn up as part of a cluster as they will get tested if they are a known contact of a case.

This effect is also seen at older age groups to a diminishing effect, it partially explains why such large numbers of cases arise in workplaces, like meat factories.

fritzelly · 09-07-2020 11:52pm

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

I think I'll just get back in my cave with my pile of toilet rolls now. It's not sounding good :eek:

Bears have the right idea

Spanish Eyes · 09-07-2020 11:55pm

fritzelly wrote: »

Bears have the right idea

Well they sht in the woods which looks likely for me now lol.

10000maniacs · 09-07-2020 11:57pm

ixoy wrote: »

Are there huge waves in France, Germany, etc from people returning from holidays to Spain, Portugal, etc? Irish people aren't the only ones to to go to Spain.

Spain will open its borders to everyone from next week. I know of at least two Irish families with booked holidays flying out next week. It's as if the virus is nothing to these people.

stephenjmcd · 10-07-2020 12:03am

10000maniacs wrote: »

Spain will open its borders to everyone from next week. I know of at least two Irish families with booked holidays flying out next week. It's as if the virus is nothing to these people.

Eh Spains borders are already open and have been for about 2 weeks or so now maybe a little longer, in line with the rest of Europe. The only country they didn't open up to until 1st July was Portugal as there was a symbolic reopening of the border event planned.

Everyone who's on the EU list as allowed into Europe can get in so not sure where your getting borders open next week from

Goldengirl · 10-07-2020 12:04am

timsey tiger wrote: »

Aerosol spread, would make the high number of medical staff still being infected more understandable.

Yes ,because many interventions in medical and nursing care cause aerosol spread.
Suctioning , making patients cough , physio, intubation , bronchoscopy..
But this is why specific anti aerosol PPE is worn in these situations , to catch any virus particles that are forcibly expelled .
But maybe more lingering in the air for longer in these areas, which hasn't been thought was happening .

caveat emptor · 10-07-2020 12:05am

ShineOn7 wrote: »

Gov.ie/Reddit summary from a member there called Laura who transcribes the highlights of the briefings

New Cases: 23
Denotified Cases: N/A
Total Cases: 25,565
New Deaths: 6
Denotified: 1
Total Deaths: 1,743

As of Tuesday 7th July
Total cases: 25,543

Hospitalised: 3,328

Currently hospitalised: 13

ICU: 436

Current ICU: 9

Healthcare workers: 8,265

Clusters: 1,994

Cases associated with clusters: 13,019

In last 14 days
Total cases notified: 170

Occurred in last 14 days: 140

Average age: 34

Underlying conditions: 29%

Healthcare workers: 45%

Cases in Dublin: 55

Cases in Kildare: 23

Cases in Sligo: 16

Other counties 46

Residential Settings (Includes nursing homes)
Clusters: 462

Total Cases: 7411

Total Deaths: 1104

Nursing Homes
Clusters: 261

Total Cases: 5832

Total Deaths: 983

Modelling & Statistics
Average of 1 death per day

Average of 10 in ICU day on day

Over 6000 tests done - over 50% increase

Small increase in number of positive cases

14 day cumulative incidence is a very good indicator of active infection in community - this has risen.

As of today about 4 per 100,000. This is a little higher this week than the last 2 weeks

To a certain extent this is expected as people move freely

Confirmed case count per day, going back 6 weeks from today - broadly speaking very low levels of disease, nothing to be concerned of.

Especially three weeks ago where 61 cases were confirmed total.

Last two weeks we have seen little bit more incidence cases

Increase of cases means an increase in reproductive number - this is unreliable when you have low numbers.

We have one (artifically high) of 2.49 - this is very deliberately comparing three weeks ago against this week

Imperial model gives an estimate of 0.8 - this is based on the number of deaths, and fortunately we haven't seen a large increase

Best estimate is a statistical method combining a number of factors. This gives our reproductive number of at or just above 1

Cases arising in different settings - last week very low in LTRC.

3 weeks ago there were no outbreaks, however this is on the rise (including travel related)

Closely monitoring age distribution of cases, excluding those in healthcare and LTRC.

Seeing more cases in younger people - this is being very carefully monitored, along with the nature of transmission

60% of cases are close contact with confirmed cases

Others are community, others healthcare

15-20% travel related

Jesus that’s some serious rain man ****. Fair play.
Is the situation good?

castletownman · 10-07-2020 12:06am

10000maniacs wrote: »

Spain will open its borders to everyone from next week. I know of at least two Irish families with booked holidays flying out next week. It's as if the virus is nothing to these people.

But their poor kids are entitled to a holiday after being under house arrest since March.

When it comes to foreign holidays, the amount of people who cannot see beyond their own self-interests is astounding

Martina1991 · 10-07-2020 12:07am

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Looks like the Brits have been cooking the testing books.
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-the-inside-story-of-how-uks-chaotic-testing-regime-broke-all-the-rules-12022566

I've been following the news about the testing service in the UK for months now. It's been a shit show since the beginning.

They set up "Lighthouse" labs that were constructed in about 6 weeks and staffed with volunteers. The staff came from backgrounds like veterinary nursing and academic research. They didn't have the IT or logistic support in place to take on such a task.

As a result their data has fallen into a black hole and they have no idea how many tests they are doing if if they're double counted. They also have hundreds of thousands of samples from home test kits coming in by post.
Imagine ringing them up and looking for a result. It would be a needle in a haystack.

They didn't consult the Institute of Biomedical Science (IBMS) before setting up these labs. They also didn't increase capacity in their NHS hospital labs. The Biomedical Scientists trained and experienced to carry out the work were overlooked and underutilised.

ShineOn7 · 10-07-2020 12:08am

caveat emptor wrote: »

Jesus that’s some serious rain man ****. Fair play.
Is the situation good?

Serious ..... rain?

ShineOn7 · 10-07-2020 12:10am

Deleted User wrote: »

I don't know if many on here will have heard of this guy. I've been watching his videos for a while now and wondered where he was for the last month or so. Turns out he had covid, went through a tough time but pulled through.

Little bit of a reminder for those of us who are maybe getting a bit lax.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=clscC120ZQM

Posted a few pages back

bb1234567 · 10-07-2020 12:12am

https://www.deccanherald.com/international/world-news-politics/south-korea-finds-1-case-of-coronavirus-antibodies-out-of-3000-tested-858967.html

Well looks like South Korea really did completely stop community spread and caught literally every case.

Just one out of 3000 random people tested in South Korea had virus antibodies ! I would imagine it is the lowest level of infection in the world at this stage . Pretty impressive.

bb1234567 · 10-07-2020 12:18am

ShineOn7 wrote: »

Serious ..... rain?

Rainman as in the movie..he's saying the extremely detailed statistical analysis is like the work of a savant!

JJayoo · 10-07-2020 12:20am

bb1234567 wrote: »

https://www.deccanherald.com/international/world-news-politics/south-korea-finds-1-case-of-coronavirus-antibodies-out-of-3000-tested-858967.html

Well looks like South Korea really did completely stop community spread and caught literally every case.

Just one out of 3000 random people tested in South Korea had virus antibodies ! I would imagine it is the lowest level of infection in the world at this stage . Pretty impressive.

But what now? Completely shut away from the rest of the world until vaccine?

caveat emptor · 10-07-2020 12:26am

bb1234567 wrote: »

Rainman as in the movie..he's saying the extremely detailed statistical analysis is like the work of a savant!

Thanks, you are right. I like the meme.
Yes far too many numbers for me to make sense of.
Hard to know how things are going in general. Between asymptomatic spread and lag time to symptoms hard to know where we are. I’m treating it as though chances are remote of contraction bit policy decisions are leaving us vulnerable.
Will kids go back to school in September .... I’m not sure
Will there be a second wave ........ I don’t know?
Best case Uk and Ireland decide on zero tolerance and test people arriving so we can get back to normal.

ShineOn7 · 10-07-2020 12:26am

bb1234567 wrote: »

Rainman as in the movie..he's saying the extremely detailed statistical analysis is like the work of a savant!

Sorry Caveat, the coffee is wearing off and I didn't see the "man" bit after "rain"

I thought you were saying some cool Millennial phrase I didn't know :pac:

Ae Fond Kiss · 10-07-2020 12:28am

New and can't post gifs.

What I have in mind is the priest in Fr. Ted played by Eamonn Morrissey saying...

'Is there anything to be said for another lockdown?'

maebee · 10-07-2020 12:32am

10000maniacs wrote: »

Spain will open its borders to everyone from next week. I know of at least two Irish families with booked holidays flying out next week. It's as if the virus is nothing to these people.

Jeez, which part of "Global Pandemic" are they not getting? We do a Shannon to Malaga flight once a year and a cruise every September. Neither is happening this year. Too risky. Spain will still be there next year.

JP Liz V1 · 10-07-2020 12:35am

I'm scared to leave my county let alone the country

caveat emptor · 10-07-2020 12:38am

ShineOn7 wrote: »

Sorry Caveat, the coffee is wearing off and I didn't see the "man" bit after "rain"

I thought you were saying some cool Millennial phrase I didn't know :pac:

I'm sorry. I assure you I'm not cool. Coffee is great. I don't know if classified as millennial. Technically on the upper bound of that.
Thanks for sharing actual information as opposed giving out about other people sharing info.

It feels like feb. The geopolitics is mad at mo. This is the start of something instead of the end of something.

ShineOn7 · 10-07-2020 12:46am

caveat emptor wrote: »

What's the short version of that? It's an hour long

Thanks

caveat emptor · 10-07-2020 12:51am

maebee wrote: »

Jeez, which part of "Global Pandemic" are they not getting? We do a Shannon to Malaga flight once a year and a cruise every September. Neither is happening this year. Too risky. Spain will still be there next year.

Smart......
Just because they are open doesn't mean we should go. I love going to Spain.

Likewise, businesses directly or indirectly involved in tourism are likely to spend in other economic sectors, generating an additional economic impact. Factoring in this contribution, which is even more widely distributed across economic sectors, the overall impact had by tourism stands at 16% of GDP, showing a gradual increase since 2010, and standing far higher than the European average (9.6%).

Tourism also has a major bearing on job creation. Tourism directly and indirectly employed 2.5 million individuals in 2015, meaning 13% of total employment (1.4 percentage points more than in 2010). If we also include employment generated by secondary effects, the contribution stands at 16.2% of total employment, far higher than the European average (9.1%).

https://www.caixabank.com/comunicacion/noticia/caixabank-research-study_en.html?id=40215

fritzelly · 10-07-2020 12:58am

ShineOn7 wrote: »

What's the short version of that? It's an hour long

Thanks

China doesn't invent technology et al - it "acquires" it

caveat emptor · 10-07-2020 12:59am

ShineOn7 wrote: »

What's the short version of that? It's an hour long

Thanks

Gotcha. Yeah sorry it is long sorry. It's stuff we already know but shocking that it's coming from FBI director. TBH there's a bigger game afoot. Whether true or not, US believes they are under attack and are likely to respond / lash out in next 10 years.

Summary according to caveat:

FBI opening a counter intelligence case on average every 10 hours against CHINAa!
The FBI director calling out that China is adopting an all of state approach to become superior to US
Bribing people in industry /academia to steal intellectual property with varying success.
Acknowledging that Chinese emigres have made fantastic contribution to America and in no way responsible for the chinese government actions.
Although Chinese nationals are the target of such activity
means include threating and coercing people to return to china for fear of death to themselves or to therir family.

ShineOn7 · 10-07-2020 1:13am

JJayoo wrote: »

But what now? Completely shut away from the rest of the world until vaccine?

Why not?

Australia, New Zealand and more are doing it in the medium term

Not comparing them to Ireland, but it is possible to do

10000maniacs · 10-07-2020 1:20am

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Eh Spains borders are already open and have been for about 2 weeks or so now maybe a little longer, in line with the rest of Europe. The only country they didn't open up to until 1st July was Portugal as there was a symbolic reopening of the border event planned.

Everyone who's on the EU list as allowed into Europe can get in so not sure where your getting borders open next week from

Not to the Irish.

MOR316 · 10-07-2020 1:21am

Don't understand the mentality of some people, jetting off to Spain or wherever else for a week or two.
I live outside of Dublin and I love going to the coastal areas of the county and Wicklow at weekends, there's lots that this country can offer.

Then again, not everyone is the same I guess and I have no right to judge anyone. Plus, charging those prices for accommodation can put people off I suppose

caveat emptor · 10-07-2020 1:23am

ShineOn7 wrote: »

Why not?

Australia, New Zealand and more are doing it in the medium term

Not comparing them to Ireland, but it is possible to do

We should invoke the spirit of Dev while not angering anyone. (we shouldn't ) UK want to do likewise. Their domestic economy is far more valuable to them so worth protecting.

I give out a lot about Ireland. By Ireland I mean the political decisions we make. The fact we get basic things right stems from the fact we were oppressed and impoverished and emigrated. And we are still standing. We got the basics right which others fail to grasp either through anger / hubris or fear. There is a clear divide in the world in those who trust in science and those who trust in demigods. (I don't know if I'm religious, figure. of speech sorry) Happy to live on this island with like minded people.

Plumbthedepths · 10-07-2020 1:24am

MOR316 wrote: »

Don't understand the mentality of some people, jetting off to Spain or wherever else for a week or two.
I live outside of Dublin and I love going to the coastal areas of the county and Wicklow at weekends, there's lots that this country can offer.

Then again, not everyone is the same I guess and I have no right to judge anyone. Plus, charging those prices for accommodation can put people off I suppose

Has it occurred to you that people jetting off have family not living in Ireland?
Have you an suggestion for when they can see their families?

Plumbthedepths · 10-07-2020 1:25am

10000maniacs wrote: »

Not to the Irish.

Irish are allowed into Spain since the 15th of June. Why post inaccurate information?

Covid19 Part XIX-25,802 in ROI (1,753 deaths) 5,859 in NI (556 deaths) (21/07)Read OP

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