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Property Market 2020

14647495152211

Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 34,104 ✭✭✭✭listermint


    There's alot of people even in multinationals that need to have a good hard think about closing a sale.

    The job losses stemming from this are going to be global. The US market if your job relies on it or your company is headquartered there hasn't been begun to really feel the impacts . It's going to come down like a ton of bricks.

    Personally I'd be holding off until at least the end of the summer when this is bedded in.

    No house is worth the mental anguish and associated relationship pain that would come from job losses and large scale debt.


    Be rational and really rationalise your purchase including properly war gaming one or both job losses in the household. Rents have already taken a hit so renting future won't be the same in future as it is now.


  • Registered Users Posts: 861 ✭✭✭Zenify


    garhjw wrote: »
    In relation to the property market..... nothing has happened yet. Prices have not floored. There is not a flood of units coming to market at knock down rates..... this is a property thread, nothing has happened to the property market yet in terms of prices falling, supply increasing etc...

    Everyone I know in the process of buying has pulled out. Is that nothing?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 22,648 ✭✭✭✭beauf


    listermint wrote: »
    There's alot of people even in multinationals that need to have a good hard think about closing a sale.

    The job losses stemming from this are going to be global. The US market if your job relies on it or your company is headquartered there hasn't been begun to really feel the impacts . It's going to come down like a ton of bricks.

    Personally I'd be holding off until at least the end of the summer when this is bedded in.

    No house is worth the mental anguish and associated relationship pain that would come from job losses and large scale debt.


    Be rational and really rationalise your purchase including properly war gaming one or both job losses in the household. Rents have already taken a hit so renting future won't be the same in future as it is now.

    I assume all building activity will be the first to stop. This the supply of new property will also stop.

    So you've got supply, demand and finance all shrinking together. I can't see demand thats built up over a decade or more shrinking as fast the other two. I think the housing crisis will still remain.

    I don't think population will shrink as fast as it grew either.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 26,280 ✭✭✭✭Eric Cartman


    Zenify wrote: »
    Everyone I know in the process of buying has pulled out. Is that nothing?

    A high likelihood of new build completions delayed for months and a possibility of job losses , neither of which impact the price of a house are quite likely

    House prices will only be impacted if banks stop lending again but then sure those people are screwed anyway. House prices dropping more than 5-6% will only help cash buyers


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,969 ✭✭✭enricoh


    garhjw wrote: »
    In relation to the property market..... nothing has happened yet. Prices have not floored. There is not a flood of units coming to market at knock down rates..... this is a property thread, nothing has happened to the property market yet in terms of prices falling, supply increasing etc...

    Do you think house prices will rise, stay the same or fall this year?
    Someone posted a link that us unemployment may hit 30% by summer, I read Cormac Lucy's article in the Sunday times yesterday about Irish unemployment, it was sobering stuff and the emigration valve is welded shut.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,940 ✭✭✭Sweet.Science


    enricoh wrote: »
    Do you think house prices will rise, stay the same or fall this year?
    Someone posted a link that us unemployment may hit 30% by summer, I read Cormac Lucy's article in the Sunday times yesterday about Irish unemployment, it was sobering stuff and the emigration valve is welded shut.

    A 3 month pause to banks isnt going to affect them too much . Plenty of credit still available. Things will bounce back quick enough


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,969 ✭✭✭enricoh


    sun0shine wrote: »
    I am in process of buying a new build house in commuter town ~360K range, loan offer in place but haven't signed contracts yet.
    Certainly market is going to tumble..
    Bargain on new build an option in this stage? or time to pull out?

    I'd be looking for a serious reduction not a bit of paving thrown in. Who else is going to buy it?
    Surely all the government funded charities/ associations will have their funding slashed when tax receipts tumble


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,457 ✭✭✭✭lawred2


    A 3 month pause to banks isnt going to affect them too much . Plenty of credit still available. Things will bounce back quick enough

    3 months?

    WHO saying 12 months at least for a vaccine... you think we'll be sorted by June?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 674 ✭✭✭FernandoTorres


    I can't figure out whether the people saying there won't be an effect on property prices are deluded, in denial or plain crazy. This is a massive event and one of the biggest financial meltdowns we've ever seen. Property is an illiquid asset so the effect will not be seen for a while yet.



    To suggest that there can be a situation where there is a 40%+ fall in equity markets, mass unemployment and a shutdown of the global economy but Irish property prices remain static is insane. I'd suggest reading through some of the threads from 2007/2008 as you can see the same delusion there and we all know how that ended up.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,424 ✭✭✭garhjw


    I can't figure out whether the people saying there won't be an effect on property prices are deluded, in denial or plain crazy. This is a massive event and one of the biggest financial meltdowns we've ever seen. Property is an illiquid asset so the effect will not be seen for a while yet.



    To suggest that there can be a situation where there is a 40%+ fall in equity markets, mass unemployment and a shutdown of the global economy but Irish property prices remain static is insane. I'd suggest reading through some of the threads from 2007/2008 as you can see the same delusion there and we all know how that ended up.

    There will be an impact but we don’t know the extent and for how long or when. Difference from 2008 is there is not an over supply of units, especially in urban areas - Dublin, cork etc.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,016 ✭✭✭JJJackal


    Zenify wrote: »
    Everyone I know in the process of buying has pulled out. Is that nothing?

    It makes sense to postpone a purchase at present. For many reasons including buyers think they will get a reduction when this is over.

    Alas in my opinion nobody knows


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 332 ✭✭mosii


    I think at best ,there is going to be a recession after this,starting in about 12 months .House sales will fall off a cliff in the interim,so its only common sense that this is going to affect house prices.I think they are overvalued anyway,even outside pent up demand.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,889 ✭✭✭SozBbz


    garhjw wrote: »
    There will be an impact but we don’t know the extent and for how long or when. Difference from 2008 is there is not an over supply of units, especially in urban areas - Dublin, cork etc.

    Exactly.

    You can't compare this to 2008 because this is more akin to a natural disaster.
    in 2008, it was build on borrowed "wealth". People thought they were rich because they had apartments in Bulgaria and were building investment property in Leitrim. Very little equity, everything was based on prices going up, and people just assumed that prices would always go up.

    Yes, huge numbers of people have lost jobs but many of those jobs will come back once we've broken the back of this. It will probably get worse before it gets better, but it will get better. People wont suddenly have lost the desire to go out and socialise in bars and restaurants, take holidays, buy consumer goods. Speaking personally, I will definitely want to get out and support small businesses as soon as possible.

    What I see coming is inflation, the likes of which we won't have seen since before the crash, due to governments printing money to get us beyond this crisis. That could actually make nominal house prices go up, and decrease in real terms the value of the borrowing made by existing home owners. Too early to say if this would mean houses are actually more affordable in real terms , I'm not sure. Obviously there will be no volume of sales for the coming months - but I don't see why anyone would drop their prices to force a sale (outside of the 3 D's - Dead, Divorced, Desperate)... to be honest I'm not sure it would work anyway, as if the banks stop allowing people to draw down until things return to a more certain footing, then it would be moot anyway.

    We won't know anyway because the one thing that is certain is there won't be any significant number of sales going through to establish what values are looking like.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,969 ✭✭✭Assetbacked


    It's the rental market where returns will plummet, as anticipated. This only hurts investors and speculators and it was a bubble anyway so it is not unexpected. This looks like it will fall quite dramatically as inward migration is at zero for the next few months (corporate lets and new jobs) at least as is tourism (Airbnbs). I also expect that we will start to see job losses with some of the big multinationals like Indeed (recruitment company), Airbnb and the online advertisement companies with big sales teams here.

    There is still pent up demand for houses and a lot of people renting who are not shackled with debt. With lowering rents, of course people will be happier to rent for longer now that it won't cost as much as a mortgage but it also means people who are renting can save more money. However, it is likely to not drop only at the more affordable levels (under €600k), the less affordable houses could see big drops. It will probably take a while to see the market moving again in any event.


  • Registered Users Posts: 415 ✭✭milhous


    Nvm the billions of euro invested in loan books that "vulture funds" have bought up. These will be offloaded as their investors start trying to take their money out. The trillions of euro taking out of the European economy and the same in America which will all come down to huge job loss.

    I'm not saying it won't recover eventually, but to think that the property prices here won't be effected too much here is ludacris.

    I'd be waiting to buy.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,360 ✭✭✭landofthetree


    SozBbz wrote: »
    Exactly.

    You can't compare this to 2008 because this is more akin to a natural disaster.
    in 2008, it was build on borrowed "wealth". People thought they were rich because they had apartments in Bulgaria and were building investment property in Leitrim. Very little equity, everything was based on prices going up, and people just assumed that prices would always go up.

    Yes, huge numbers of people have lost jobs but many of those jobs will come back once we've broken the back of this. It
    will probably get worse before it gets better, but it will get better. People wont suddenly have lost the desire to go out and socialise in bars and restaurants, take holidays, buy consumer goods. Speaking personally, I will definitely want to get out and support small businesses as soon as possible.

    What I see coming is inflation, the likes of which we won't have seen since before the crash, due to governments printing money to get us beyond this crisis. That could actually make nominal house prices go up, and decrease in real terms the value of the borrowing made by existing home owners. Too early to say if this would mean houses are actually more affordable in real terms , I'm not sure. Obviously there will be no volume of sales for the coming months - but I don't see why anyone would drop their prices to force a sale (outside of the 3 D's - Dead, Divorced, Desperate)... to be honest I'm not sure it would work anyway, as if the banks stop allowing people to draw down until things return to a more certain footing, then it would be moot anyway.

    We won't know anyway because the one thing that is certain is there won't be any significant number of sales going through to establish what values are looking like.

    That's the problem. Many many businesses won't get through this.

    Some of the biggest companies have feck all cash reserves


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,478 ✭✭✭coolshannagh28


    Another factor in the Irish market is the presence of so much US big money which is supporting prices , a lot depends on how this affects them ; if they feel the pinch in the US they may cut and run in Ireland with major consequences.


  • Posts: 17,728 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    SozBbz wrote: »
    ..............

    What I see coming is inflation, the likes of which we won't have seen since before the crash, due to governments printing money to get us beyond this crisis. That could actually make nominal house prices go up, and decrease in real terms the value of the borrowing made by existing home owners..................

    We have a nation will have spent billions on payments etc linked to Covid19.
    That will have to be recouped over the next decade, I don't think we'll see house prices going up.

    Rents will certainly fall due to the increased supply as loads of AirB&Bs are now available to rent. Once they become someone's home again they won't be going back on AirB&B unless they are sold ......... tourism will be quite a while recovering from Covid19.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,204 ✭✭✭Roberto_gas


    Have been waiting for 2 years now for prices to fall ! Another 1 year wait perhaps.....how is everyone else doing ?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,804 ✭✭✭PommieBast


    JJJackal wrote: »
    It makes sense to postpone a purchase at present.
    Never mind postponement, more a case of just nothing getting done..

    Some of the biggest companies have feck all cash reserves
    I expect some Carillion-style collapses in the near future.


    From https://www.ft.com/content/c98362f0-6aa4-11ea-800d-da70cff6e4d3


    "The corporate sector looks a lot like the financial sector did [..] highly leveraged [..] reliant on financial engineering to create the illusion of growth and innovation."


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,948 ✭✭✭0gac3yjefb5sv7


    Have been waiting for 2 years now for prices to fall ! Another 1 year wait perhaps.....how is everyone else doing ?

    Same, I am close to sale agreed now & don't know if I can wait any longer.

    It always seems to be next year is the right time.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,457 ✭✭✭✭lawred2


    Have been waiting for 2 years now for prices to fall ! Another 1 year wait perhaps.....how is everyone else doing ?

    Let's hope you don't lose your job in the meanwhile


  • Posts: 0 ✭✭✭✭ Hayes Unsightly Wagon


    Have been waiting for 2 years now for prices to fall ! Another 1 year wait perhaps.....how is everyone else doing ?

    How much rent have you paid in the meantime?


  • Posts: 17,728 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    How much rent have you paid in the meantime?

    I doubt he's spent 30/40% of the price of a house anyway.


  • Registered Users Posts: 120 ✭✭19233974


    Im absolutely amazed that people think this wont impact property prices. This is going to be the worst pandemic of modern history. Looking at the numbers the UK and US will be a war zone within 2 months unless drastic drastic action is taken and we will have hundreds of thousands of job losses and companies folding. Ho could it not impact property, this is going to change the world economically and culturally


  • Posts: 17,728 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    19233974 wrote: »
    Im absolutely amazed that people think this wont impact property prices...........

    Folks see Ireland doing a decent ish job at trying to slow the rate of infection spread but as you say the US and the UK are a joke.

    Even if Ireland's domestic economy gets back on track we are hugely exposed to externals.

    Buying now is insanity but over the next year or two we might see transactions down to 10,000/annum again. So lots of bargain hunters will be disappointed I reckon. Folk sh1ting on since 2007 that they are waiting to but, well most of them are still waiting and they'll continue to do so.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,204 ✭✭✭Roberto_gas


    How much rent have you paid in the meantime?

    Rent is 18k per year ! Job is well secured... ! If markets correct 30-40% i wont need a mortgage !

    sorry for disappointment !


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,204 ✭✭✭Roberto_gas


    Pheonix10 wrote: »
    Same, I am close to sale agreed now & don't know if I can wait any longer.

    It always seems to be next year is the right time.

    If your rent is below market average and you have a secure job you might want to wait !


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,204 ✭✭✭Roberto_gas


    How much rent have you paid in the meantime?

    36k so far


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,581 ✭✭✭Dante


    I want whatever a lot of people in this thread are smoking. How can anybody honestly believe that the housing market will not be compeltely decimated by this? The 08 crisis will be nothing compared to what is on the horizon globally. Mass fear, unemployment, personal/corporate/soverign defaults, zero credit lines, and probable hyperinflation as central banks pump more money into the supply to keep economies afloat. Its hard to see how any market won't be crippled by this, let alone the housing market which is heavily dependent on a well-oiled economy.


  • Posts: 17,728 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Rent is 18k per year ! Job is well secured... ! If markets correct 30-40% i wont need a mortgage !

    sorry for disappointment !

    To be fair, most folk presume everyone is in the borrow all but the deposit boat :)
    Herd thinking.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 22,648 ✭✭✭✭beauf


    milhous wrote: »
    Nvm the billions of euro invested in loan books that "vulture funds" have bought up. These will be offloaded as their investors start trying to take their money out. The trillions of euro taking out of the European economy and the same in America which will all come down to huge job loss.

    I'm not saying it won't recover eventually, but to think that the property prices here won't be effected too much here is ludacris.

    I'd be waiting to buy.

    If you want to buy the type of properties that REIT invested into thats fine. You''ll have to choose your timing, some will get out quickly others will stay for the long term.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,198 ✭✭✭✭Donald Trump


    36k so far


    Don't forget to deduct the interest you would have paid (if you were getting a mortgage)

    For cash, deduct whatever interest you received. Would be small, especially after DIRT, but you have to count it too.

    And also allow for any wear and tear/repairs you saved yourself.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,198 ✭✭✭✭Donald Trump


    beauf wrote: »
    If you want to buy the type of properties that REIT invested into thats fine. You''ll have to choose your timing, some will get out quickly others will stay for the long term.

    Professional investors are quicker to cut losses and get out.

    Even if they want to stay in the market long term, they can get out now if they think the market will go down in the short term, and get back in on the way back up again


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 34,104 ✭✭✭✭listermint


    beauf wrote: »
    I assume all building activity will be the first to stop. This the supply of new property will also stop.

    So you've got supply, demand and finance all shrinking together. I can't see demand thats built up over a decade or more shrinking as fast the other two. I think the housing crisis will still remain.

    I don't think population will shrink as fast as it grew either.

    Job activity i.e acquisitions will stop too. The notion the demand will remain as is has no basis in reality.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,204 ✭✭✭Roberto_gas


    Don't forget to deduct the interest you would have paid (if you were getting a mortgage)

    For cash, deduct whatever interest you received. Would be small, especially after DIRT, but you have to count it too.

    And also allow for any wear and tear/repairs you saved yourself.

    I was only looking to get it back by the price ! Not even considered any of the other many benefits


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 2 gimmeshelt1er


    After a while passively observing i thought i would chime in on our current situation and give some a perspective.

    10 days ago (Friday before last) we viewed a property that was listed for 395k, we both thought it was a tad bit over priced and would need some love so we made an offer of 330k at the end of the viewing to the estate agent. The estate agent gave us a look of disdain and replied with, i quote " that is too low in fairness, we wouldn't want to make the seller angry and ruin a deal ".

    Just 1 hour ago the same estate agent rang me and informed us that the seller would like to proceed with the 330k offer.

    We haven't told him no yet but we have a 175k down payment as we sold our property last August and are currently renting until August this year at 1300 pm month so we are in no rush.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,204 ✭✭✭Roberto_gas


    After a while passively observing i thought i would chime in on our current situation and give some a perspective.

    10 days ago (Friday before last) we viewed a property that was listed for 395k, we both thought it was a tad bit over priced and would need some love so we made an offer of 330k at the end of the viewing to the estate agent. The estate agent gave us a look of disdain and replied with, i quote " that is too low in fairness, we wouldn't want to make the seller angry and ruin a deal ".

    Just 1 hour ago the same estate agent rang me and informed us that the seller would like to proceed with the 330k offer.

    We haven't told him no yet but we have a 175k down payment as we sold our property last August and are currently renting until August this year at 1300 pm month so we are in no rush.

    Wow thats a 20% discount right there !


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,360 ✭✭✭landofthetree


    SozBbz wrote: »
    Exactly.

    You can't compare this to 2008 because this is more akin to a natural disaster.
    in 2008, it was build on borrowed "wealth". People thought they were rich because they had apartments in Bulgaria and were building investment property in Leitrim. Very little equity, everything was based on prices going up, and people just assumed that prices would always go up.

    Yes, huge numbers of people have lost jobs but many of those jobs will come back once we've broken the back of this. It will probably get worse before it gets better, but it will get better. People wont suddenly have lost the desire to go out and socialise in bars and restaurants, take holidays, buy consumer goods. Speaking personally, I will definitely want to get out and support small businesses as soon as possible.

    What I see coming is inflation, the likes of which we won't have seen since before the crash, due to governments printing money to get us beyond this crisis. That could actually make nominal house prices go up, and decrease in real terms the value of the borrowing made by existing home owners. Too early to say if this would mean houses are actually more affordable in real terms , I'm not sure. Obviously there will be no volume of sales for the coming months - but I don't see why anyone would drop their prices to force a sale (outside of the 3 D's - Dead, Divorced, Desperate)... to be honest I'm not sure it would work anyway, as if the banks stop allowing people to draw down until things return to a more certain footing, then it would be moot anyway.

    We won't know anyway because the one thing that is certain is there won't be any significant number of sales going through to establish what values are looking like.



    Inflation will cause long term unemployment btw.

    https://www.economicshelp.org/blog/3404/economics/does-inflation-cause-unemployment/


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,100 ✭✭✭Browney7


    After a while passively observing i thought i would chime in on our current situation and give some a perspective.

    10 days ago (Friday before last) we viewed a property that was listed for 395k, we both thought it was a tad bit over priced and would need some love so we made an offer of 330k at the end of the viewing to the estate agent. The estate agent gave us a look of disdain and replied with, i quote " that is too low in fairness, we wouldn't want to make the seller angry and ruin a deal ".

    Just 1 hour ago the same estate agent rang me and informed us that the seller would like to proceed with the 330k offer.

    We haven't told him no yet but we have a 175k down payment as we sold our property last August and are currently renting until August this year at 1300 pm month so we are in no rush.

    Was the viewed property ex rental or a deceased estate selling?


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,948 ✭✭✭0gac3yjefb5sv7


    After a while passively observing i thought i would chime in on our current situation and give some a perspective.

    10 days ago (Friday before last) we viewed a property that was listed for 395k, we both thought it was a tad bit over priced and would need some love so we made an offer of 330k at the end of the viewing to the estate agent. The estate agent gave us a look of disdain and replied with, i quote " that is too low in fairness, we wouldn't want to make the seller angry and ruin a deal ".

    Just 1 hour ago the same estate agent rang me and informed us that the seller would like to proceed with the 330k offer.

    We haven't told him no yet but we have a 175k down payment as we sold our property last August and are currently renting until August this year at 1300 pm month so we are in no rush.

    Is this in Dublin? Seems an outrageous bargain but fair play to you


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,204 ✭✭✭Roberto_gas


    Pheonix10 wrote: »
    Is this in Dublin? Seems an outrageous bargain but fair play to you

    Dont think its bargain yet ! It is bound to fall further and hence the seller wants to get out of it as soon as possible !


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 460 ✭✭mcbert


    I notice I'm getting more daft/myhome alerts the last 7-10 days for west side of Galway city. Thats not to say asking prices are lower, or what they are will accept, but there's a few more houses than usual available suddenly.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 22,648 ✭✭✭✭beauf


    Professional investors are quicker to cut losses and get out.

    Even if they want to stay in the market long term, they can get out now if they think the market will go down in the short term, and get back in on the way back up again

    They can't get out quickly due to the tenancy laws. Unless they sell with sitting tenants. Who will buy a property with sitting tenants who don't pay rent and can't be evicted. They may or may not decide they will lose less by staying in.
    listermint wrote: »
    Job activity i.e acquisitions will stop too. The notion the demand will remain as is has no basis in reality.

    Who said demand will stay the same.

    If you have 8 customers who want apples and 6 apples.
    if you have 3 customers and one apple.
    Maybe no customers and one apple.

    Demand and supply do not operated independently.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,889 ✭✭✭SozBbz



    That article you linked actually says inflation can cause unemployment, not does cause unemployment.

    Also I don't think it applies because this would be inflation brought about by govt stimulus, not because of growth. Also the point re competitiveness is moot because Ireland are not uniquely affected, governments all over the world will be pouring money into their economies to restart them. Competitiveness is only impacted if Irelands rate of inflation was outstripping those around them.


  • Registered Users Posts: 572 ✭✭✭The Belly



    Where is all this inflation going to come from?.

    People save not spend in a crisis the only money that is spent is on essentials.

    Japan is a classic example.

    Irish Times Aricle 2010

    Savings by households more than tripled in 2009 compared to 2008, according to figures released by the Central Statistics Office (CSO) yesterday.

    Households were saving almost one-eighth of their total disposable income last year. The net savings rate of 12.3 per cent represented a massive increase on 2008, when just 3.9 per cent of disposable income was saved. In 2007, the figure was zero.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,360 ✭✭✭landofthetree


    SozBbz wrote: »
    That article you linked actually says inflation can cause unemployment, not does cause unemployment.

    Also I don't think it applies because this would be inflation brought about by govt stimulus, not because of growth. Also the point re competitiveness is moot because Ireland are not uniquely affected, governments all over the world will be pouring money into their economies to restart them. Competitiveness is only impacted if Irelands rate of inflation was outstripping those around them.

    The US government created high unemployment with stimulus in the 70s and early 80s.

    https://www.investopedia.com/articles/economics/09/1970s-great-inflation.asp

    Many people who remember this terrible era blame it all on the Arab countries and oil pricing. Still, the Wall Street Journal, in reviewing this period in January 1986 said, "OPEC got all the credit for what the U.S. had mainly done to itself."


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,198 ✭✭✭✭Donald Trump


    beauf wrote: »
    They can't get out quickly due to the tenancy laws. Unless they sell with sitting tenants. Who will buy a property with sitting tenants who don't pay rent and can't be evicted. They may or may not decide they will lose less by staying in.



    Who said demand will stay the same.

    If you have 8 customers who want apples and 6 apples.
    if you have 3 customers and one apple.
    Maybe no customers and one apple.

    Demand and supply do not operated independently.

    You have an investment fund. They might not have lock-up periods or might be past the lock up period. People who put money into those vehicles might move to redeem or withdraw their investment. If that happens enough, the fund has to liquidate some of its assets.

    Am not saying it will happen. I am saying it could happen


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,213 ✭✭✭Mic 1972


    beauf wrote: »
    I assume all building activity will be the first to stop. This the supply of new property will also stop.

    So you've got supply, demand and finance all shrinking together. I can't see demand thats built up over a decade or more shrinking as fast the other two. I think the housing crisis will still remain.

    I don't think population will shrink as fast as it grew either.


    Supply of new property will stop, so will demand coming from people who need a mortgage. Only cash buyers can acquire property when banks don't lend money.
    There will be second hand houses coming onto the market too. Think about professional LLs who can no longer rent at profitable rates who are lucky enough to have vacant property, all those airBnB apartments. And also houses taht were occupied by elderly who will die.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,360 ✭✭✭landofthetree


    https://www.bbc.com/news/amp/business-52000219?__twitter_impression=true

    OECD say it will be worse than 2008.

    We are looking at the great depression II.


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