Property Market 2020

Mic 1972 · 21-03-2020 2:34pm

Claw Hammer wrote: »

Some of them are getting €203 week while unemployed and can't go home to their own countries because of the virus anyway.

People can go back to their countries if they want to, governments can arrange for that. We flew back Irish people from Wuhan

LuckyLloyd · 21-03-2020 3:16pm

lcwill wrote: »

Rents won't fall unless the government removes the RPZ restrictions. Landlords will be very reluctant to accept a lower rent if they never know when they will be able to increase it again - and it has a direct impact on the value of their property (lots of daft ads now have the current rent indicated in them, or say they are not subject to restrictions).

Landlords being very reluctant will have nothing to do with it.

Villa05 · 21-03-2020 3:25pm

Graham wrote:

31 billion at the peak to 2 billion.

Comparing borrowing at the top of a bubble to when the bubble burst is not comparing like with like

tobsey wrote:

There's no way property values can fall much without rent falling considerably also. Otherwise property would be the goose laying the golden egg for investors with double digit yields each year.

Rents will fall considerably. It is the sectors that are traditional renters that are most affected by c virus lay offs. Leverage is also an issue with reits which may lead to fire sales of investment apartments.

voluntary wrote:

Well, the 150.000 or so who have already been layed off will certainly not be buying anytime soon.

Or paying extortionate rents

Mic 1972 wrote:

Honestly, people have a right to do AirBnBs with their own houses if they want, any other country in Europe allows that no probs Why should the gvmt stop that?

It is illegal to rent out a 2nd property on air bnb in a rpz. Hopefully the regulator will be keeping an eye on the huge increase in rentals since the air bnb market disappeared with a view towards prosecution where appropiate

Mic 1972 wrote:

Construction will surely slow down and then stop until prices recover.

When this is all over Governments will be looking at projects that can help reboot the economy. For Ireland the obvious answer is to fix the housing supply/demand imbalance.
A cost neutral project that could derive a new income stream for the state long into the future.
Reduce congestion on our motorways.

Generate greater revenue on our public transport networks

Help meet our carbon emmissions targets thus reducing/eliminating large fines

Lower rents so that people have more to spend in the wider economy.

Build at a time when land labour and capital is cheap locking in savings long into the future

Housing a major issue in last election so significant political capital

Lower housing costs would allow people to consider extra pension contributions thus reducing the bill in future

The benefits to the economy of affordable housing costs are too numerous to mention. I'd need to write a book to mention them all

LuckyLloyd · 21-03-2020 3:35pm

TheSheriff wrote: »

Spoke to a friend yesterday based in Cork who deals with EAs quite a bit for work - no surprise but he told me people are pulling out of sales all over the county.

We've decided to park our search for now I think.

We followed up with one EA we had an offer (below asking) in with yesterday to see if the vendor wanted to proceed and he mentioned if we added 10k to our bid they would....... I couldn't not be rude on the phone and asked was he joking...risky business on their part, good luck to them.

Aha that’s hilarious. Reality takes a while dawning on people.

James 007 · 21-03-2020 4:01pm

TheSheriff wrote: »

Spoke to a friend yesterday based in Cork who deals with EAs quite a bit for work - no surprise but he told me people are pulling out of sales all over the county.

We've decided to park our search for now I think.

We followed up with one EA we had an offer (below asking) in with yesterday to see if the vendor wanted to proceed and he mentioned if we added 10k to our bid they would....... I couldn't not be rude on the phone and asked was he joking...risky business on their part, good luck to them.

You should of said I'll raise you 10k, but I will drop 110k, is it a deal!!

dasdog · 21-03-2020 4:16pm

Villa05 wrote: »

Hopefully the regulator will be keeping an eye on the huge increase in rentals since the air bnb market disappeared with a view towards prosecution where appropiate

I doubt it. The Revenue Commissioners however are a part of the state institution that actually function.

The Belly · 21-03-2020 4:27pm

Villa05 wrote: »

Comparing borrowing at the top of a bubble to when the bubble burst is not comparing like with like

Rents will fall considerably. It is the sectors that are traditional renters that are most affected by c virus lay offs. Leverage is also an issue with reits which may lead to fire sales of investment apartments.

Or paying extortionate rents

It is illegal to rent out a 2nd property on air bnb in a rpz. Hopefully the regulator will be keeping an eye on the huge increase in rentals since the air bnb market disappeared with a view towards prosecution where appropiate

When this is all over Governments will be looking at projects that can help reboot the economy. For Ireland the obvious answer is to fix the housing supply/demand imbalance.
A cost neutral project that could derive a new income stream for the state long into the future.
Reduce congestion on our motorways.

Generate greater revenue on our public transport networks

Help meet our carbon emmissions targets thus reducing/eliminating large fines

Lower rents so that people have more to spend in the wider economy.

Build at a time when land labour and capital is cheap locking in savings long into the future

Housing a major issue in last election so significant political capital

Lower housing costs would allow people to consider extra pension contributions thus reducing the bill in future

The benefits to the economy of affordable housing costs are too numerous to mention. I'd need to write a book to mention them all

Agreed. They of course should have done this is the last downturn.

Public infastructure projects are the way to go.

No privatising projects or public private deals. Profits from them can be recycled into new projects and into the pension reserve fund or subsidise projects that will never make a profit but are neccessary for the social benefit they provide.

It would be nice to know when you pay your motorway tolls etc. the profits are ultimately paying your OACP down the road.

They could start by finishing the M8

cnocbui · 21-03-2020 4:42pm

The Belly wrote: »

Agreed. They of course should have done this is the last downturn.

Public infastructure projects are the way to go.

No privatising projects or public private deals. Profits from them can be recycled into new projects and into the pension reserve fund or subsidise projects that will never make a profit but are neccessary for the social benefit they provide.

It would be nice to know when you pay your motorway tolls etc. the profits are ultimately paying your OACP down the road.

They could start by finishing the M8

Tolls would go to paying current pensions, not yours. Governments don't save money, they spend it all and then borrow more. I'd rather they build a major hospital in Limerick which they should have done a decade ago, rather than spend more money on motorways that are mostly empty by European standards.

Claw Hammer · 21-03-2020 5:22pm

Mic 1972 wrote: »

People can go back to their countries if they want to, governments can arrange for that. We flew back Irish people from Wuhan

Not every government is bothered to do it. There are many Irish people trying to get home at the moment from various places around the world. For people to be flown home directly flights departing from the place where they are towards Ireland or at least Europe. You might not have noticed, but airlines are cancelling flights all over and there are queues to get the airports. If people land in one country do not allowed leave to go on to their home country. It would be very foolish person who would try to get to the far side of the world by air at the moment.

Mic 1972 · 21-03-2020 10:34pm

Claw Hammer wrote: »

Not every government is bothered to do it. There are many Irish people trying to get home at the moment from various places around the world. For people to be flown home directly flights departing from the place where they are towards Ireland or at least Europe. You might not have noticed, but airlines are cancelling flights all over and there are queues to get the airports. If people land in one country do not allowed leave to go on to their home country. It would be very foolish person who would try to get to the far side of the world by air at the moment.

There are also Irish people currently living in countries where the infection is not as bad as here, they might not even want to come back

PommieBast · 21-03-2020 11:15pm

cudsy1 wrote: »

i havent seen any mention of brexit here since the crisis hit - does anyone think that might affect the property market over the next 6-18 months?

Issue with quality housing is one of the reasons why Ireland actually did quite poorly in attracting Brexit-related relocations.

Assetbacked · 22-03-2020 12:10am

PommieBast wrote: »

Issue with quality housing is one of the reasons why Ireland actually did quite poorly in attracting Brexit-related relocations.

The issue with Brexit is that, four years later, it still hasn't happened and a further extension is likely to occur beyond this year, bringing it to five years post-referendum. It will be time to have a Brexit confirmation referendum at that point!

riddles · 22-03-2020 9:22am

Assetbacked wrote: »

The issue with Brexit is that, four years later, it still hasn't happened and a further extension is likely to occur beyond this year, bringing it to five years post-referendum. It will be time to have a Brexit confirmation referendum at that point!

It has happened officially, the official details on how the EU and Britain will engage is to be worked out this year. The impending financial implosion may make those discussions secondary in the medium term.

Following a general election, Parliament ratified the withdrawal agreement, and the UK left the EU at 11 p.m. GMT on 31 January 2020. ... The UK remains subject to EU law and remains part of the EU customs union and single market during the transition, but is no longer part of the EU's political bodies or institutions.

Assetbacked · 22-03-2020 11:39am

riddles wrote: »

It has happened officially, the official details on how the EU and Britain will engage is to be worked out this year. The impending financial implosion may make those discussions secondary in the medium term.

Following a general election, Parliament ratified the withdrawal agreement, and the UK left the EU at 11 p.m. GMT on 31 January 2020. ... The UK remains subject to EU law and remains part of the EU customs union and single market during the transition, but is no longer part of the EU's political bodies or institutions.

Yeah, it has happened in name only. It's still an ongoing limbo situation until the Brits grow a pair and take the plunge, have a confirmation referendum (yes or no) or agree the FTA. Coming up to five years post-referendum is definitely a justifiable time to start wondering if enough time has passed to re-consider the whole thing. It's a whole generation in politics!

Villa05 · 22-03-2020 11:51am

The Belly wrote:

Agreed. They of course should have done this is the last downturn.

The Belly wrote:

Public infastructure projects are the way to go.

We were not able do it last time as we were literally bankrupt from property. We remain in serious trouble.

It is leprechaun economics and near zero interest rates that have kept our heads over water for the last 10 years and ironically reversed corrective actions taken after the last crash. If interest rates were at normal this country would be a very different place

Any state projects must be profitable that's why housing in high demand areas must be top of the list

landofthetree · 22-03-2020 2:01pm

We dont need to build any new houses.

After this crisis demand will be gone.

The_Conductor · 22-03-2020 2:04pm

landofthetree wrote: »

We dont need to build any new houses.

After this crisis demand will be gone.

That is an incredibly depressing way to look at things.

landofthetree · 22-03-2020 2:08pm

Villa05 wrote: »

Comparing borrowing at the top of a bubble to when the bubble burst is not comparing like with like

Rents will fall considerably. It is the sectors that are traditional renters that are most affected by c virus lay offs. Leverage is also an issue with reits which may lead to fire sales of investment apartments.

Or paying extortionate rents

It is illegal to rent out a 2nd property on air bnb in a rpz. Hopefully the regulator will be keeping an eye on the huge increase in rentals since the air bnb market disappeared with a view towards prosecution where appropiate

When this is all over Governments will be looking at projects that can help reboot the economy. For Ireland the obvious answer is to fix the housing supply/demand imbalance.
A cost neutral project that could derive a new income stream for the state long into the future.
Reduce congestion on our motorways.

Generate greater revenue on our public transport networks

Help meet our carbon emmissions targets thus reducing/eliminating large fines

Lower rents so that people have more to spend in the wider economy.

Build at a time when land labour and capital is cheap locking in savings long into the future

Housing a major issue in last election so significant political capital

Lower housing costs would allow people to consider extra pension contributions thus reducing the bill in future

The benefits to the economy of affordable housing costs are too numerous to mention. I'd need to write a book to mention them all

There wont be a demand.

When the crisis is over people will have no jobs to go back to. Auz,NZ,Canada etc will all recover much quicker and hundreds of thousands will leave again.

Mic 1972 · 22-03-2020 2:38pm

landofthetree wrote: »

We dont need to build any new houses.

After this crisis demand will be gone.

yep

Sheeps · 22-03-2020 3:44pm

There may be a slight dent in demand for homes in this country. The only thing that will really change is the amount of people who ill be in a position to purchase a home will be significantly lower.

The Belly · 22-03-2020 3:59pm

Villa05 wrote: »

We were not able do it last time as we were literally bankrupt from property. We remain in serious trouble.

When we couldn't borrow money we couldn't do it.

Yield
0.987%
22 Mar 2020
13:15 GMT+0
Government Bond
Ireland
30 Years

We can now. 10 year fixed rates with the banks are around 3%.

In 2019 12,000 FTB mortgages drawn down were worth 2.7 Billion.

For example, with housing. The government starts a building program.
Take the house price for a 3-bed semi at €250,000

10% down and €225,000 over 30 years at a fixed rate of 3.5%

Repayment monthly €1,010.35

Cost of credit €138,726.20

Total repayable €388,726

Cost for State to service the debt of €225,000 at .0.987% x 30 years €66,625
Total cost €291,622

Profit to state €388,726- €291,622 = €97,104.

Over 30 years profit of 1.17 billion or 38.8M per year per 12k new units built at 250k.

This doesn’t include the stimulus that a large house building program would create for the economy.

It it clearly illustrates using just 12k houses or equivalent not only could the government solve the housing issue they could provide much needed stimulus for the country and create a growing income stream for the countries finances.

landofthetree · 22-03-2020 5:40pm

Sheeps wrote: »

There may be a slight dent in demand for homes in this country. The only thing that will really change is the amount of people who ill be in a position to purchase a home will be significantly lower.

A lot will leave.

Other countries like Australia will recover a lot faster.

Our high personal tax rates are a huge drag on the economy.

Other countries will still be building infrastructure as they have water charges and council taxes to fund it. Stuff off the balance sheet.

Plus they aren't as dependent on corpo tax.

PommieBast · 22-03-2020 6:13pm

Assetbacked wrote: »

Yeah, it has happened in name only. It's still an ongoing limbo situation until the Brits grow a pair and take the plunge, have a confirmation referendum (yes or no) or agree the FTA.

Pretty much anyone who has to plan ahead is using a no-deal exit as the working assumption.

landofthetree wrote: »

A lot will leave.

But will it be enough? Supply and demand are so out of line that it would require an absolute exodus..

El Gato De Negocios · 22-03-2020 6:56pm

landofthetree wrote: »

A lot will leave.

Other countries like Australia will recover a lot faster.

Our high personal tax rates are a huge drag on the economy.

Other countries will still be building infrastructure as they have water charges and council taxes to fund it. Stuff off the balance sheet.

Plus they aren't as dependent on corpo tax.

I wouldn't be at all surprised to see a bump on the USC again to make up what's going to be spent over the coming months.

Mic 1972 · 22-03-2020 7:22pm

Sheeps wrote: »

There may be a slight dent in demand for homes in this country. The only thing that will really change is the amount of people who ill be in a position to purchase a home will be significantly lower.

it's the same thing.
Demand is created by people who are in a position to buy, not by those who wish to but have no money

Reversal · 22-03-2020 7:41pm

Mic 1972 wrote: »

it's the same thing.
Demand is created by people who are in a position to buy, not by those who wish to but have no money

However in this forum some people think that people wanting to buy is demand, regardless of their ability to do so. Hence why some struggle to understand why demand will drop in the next while.

"The value of my recently purchased new build could never go down because people still need somewhere to live"

Mic 1972 · 22-03-2020 8:11pm

Reversal wrote: »

However in this forum some people think that people wanting to buy is demand, regardless of their ability to do so. Hence why some struggle to understand why demand will drop in the next while.

"The value of my recently purchased new build could never go down because people still need somewhere to live"

Correct
People often confuse need/desire with demand

IndieRoar111 · 22-03-2020 8:39pm

Strange turn of events this evening.

I originally posted our situation in here and am grateful for the responses, long story short, we pulled out of a deal on a house that was 360k asking but we went sale agreed for 345k. Within the past hour we received an email from the estate agent informing us that the vendor would now accept 340k.

To me this seems very strange as we have been on the lookout for the past few months and normally find it hard to receive a response from a estate agent and now one emails us on a Sunday night.

We won't be going for the property at that price and are happy with our decision to pull out of the deal.

LuckyLloyd · 22-03-2020 8:53pm

IndieRoar111 wrote: »

Strange turn of events this evening.

I originally posted our situation in here and am grateful for the responses, long story short, we pulled out of a deal on a house that was 360k asking but we went sale agreed for 345k. Within the past hour we received an email from the estate agent informing us that the vendor would now accept 340k.

To me this seems very strange as we have been on the lookout for the past few months and normally find it hard to receive a response from a estate agent and now one emails us on a Sunday night.

We won't be going for the property at that price and are happy with our decision to pull out of the deal.

Offer 290k

beggars_bush · 22-03-2020 9:01pm

Reversal wrote: »

However in this forum some people think that people wanting to buy is demand, regardless of their ability to do so. Hence why some struggle to understand why demand will drop in the next while.

"The value of my recently purchased new build could never go down because people still need somewhere to live"

Some people are going to be saving like mad for the next 6 months - 12 months - No social spending, no extra shopping
Could be a lot more people in a position to buy

0gac3yjefb5sv7 · 22-03-2020 9:05pm

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

Offer 290k

To be fair, if the property has any demand at all...the seller will laugh and sell it to someone else for 340k or 320k.

Most properties that have any demand, you can't just offer 100k less as there will be an underbidder ready to go.

Mic 1972 · 22-03-2020 9:09pm

beggars_bush wrote: »

Some people are going to be saving like mad for the next 6 months - 12 months - No social spending, no extra shopping
Could be a lot more people in a position to buy

The same people could have done that all along if they really wanted to buy a house instead of complaining about banks not lending more money
Sorry, not being smart at you, but i can't stand the attitude of wanting to buy something and making zero effort to save money for it

landofthetree · 22-03-2020 10:18pm

https://mobile.twitter.com/spectatorindex/status/1241835731456110593

JUST IN: President of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis says US unemployment in the second quarter of 2020 may reach 30%.

Gulp.

Sheeps · 22-03-2020 10:42pm

Mic 1972 wrote: »

it's the same thing.
Demand is created by people who are in a position to buy, not by those who wish to but have no money

Well then demand is ultra low at the minute and prices are high. No problem.

beggars_bush · 22-03-2020 10:53pm

Mic 1972 wrote: »

The same people could have done that all along if they really wanted to buy a house instead of complaining about banks not lending more money
Sorry, not being smart at you, but i can't stand the attitude of wanting to buy something and making zero effort to save money for it

Fully agreed

Eric Cartman · 22-03-2020 11:42pm

Mic 1972 wrote: »

The same people could have done that all along if they really wanted to buy a house instead of complaining about banks not lending more money
Sorry, not being smart at you, but i can't stand the attitude of wanting to buy something and making zero effort to save money for it

its pretty sad that people need the pubs to forcibly close to actually financially contribute to their future.

awec · 22-03-2020 11:55pm

Reversal wrote: »

However in this forum some people think that people wanting to buy is demand, regardless of their ability to do so. Hence why some struggle to understand why demand will drop in the next while.

"The value of my recently purchased new build could never go down because people still need somewhere to live"

Who thinks this? If house prices drop, it's because demand drops. That's just how it works, I don't think anyone is under any illusions otherwise. Certainly haven't seen any notion to the contrary in this forum.

If house prices are significantly cheaper 12 months from now it'll be because significantly less people will be in a position to buy a house 12 months from now.

We know almost certainly that supply is not going to increase. If anything supply is going to fall if the arse falls out of things. In order for there to be a price drop, demand is going to have to fall more than supply. That means, in the scenario of a market collapse, there are LOTS of people who are in a position to buy right now who are going to suddenly find themselves unable to buy.

If the arse falls out of it, there are going to be plenty of people who were looking at nice new houses in private developments this time last month adding their name to the social housing list.

smurgen · 23-03-2020 12:09am

landofthetree wrote: »

https://mobile.twitter.com/spectatorindex/status/1241835731456110593

JUST IN: President of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis says US unemployment in the second quarter of 2020 may reach 30%.

Gulp.

Don't worry house prices are rock solid. We still don't have supply!

JamesMason · 23-03-2020 12:44am

Mic 1972 wrote: »

yep

Spot on

JamesMason · 23-03-2020 12:51am

awec wrote: »

Who thinks this? If house prices drop, it's because demand drops. That's just how it works, I don't think anyone is under any illusions otherwise. Certainly haven't seen any notion to the contrary in this forum.

If house prices are significantly cheaper 12 months from now it'll be because significantly less people will be in a position to buy a house 12 months from now.

We know almost certainly that supply is not going to increase. If anything supply is going to fall if the arse falls out of things. In order for there to be a price drop, demand is going to have to fall more than supply. That means, in the scenario of a market collapse, there are LOTS of people who are in a position to buy right now who are going to suddenly find themselves unable to buy.

If the arse falls out of it

...
Not if or when. It has happened.

LuckyLloyd · 23-03-2020 12:52am

Pheonix10 wrote: »

To be fair, if the property has any demand at all...the seller will laugh and sell it to someone else for 340k or 320k.

Most properties that have any demand, you can't just offer 100k less as there will be an underbidder ready to go.

There will be no underbidders right now. I'd offer 70 - 80% of value if you were already sale agreed and if the seller is denying reality leave them to it and hold onto your cash.

coolshannagh28 · 23-03-2020 12:57am

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

There will be no underbidders right now. I'd offer 70 - 80% of value if you were already sale agreed and if the seller is denying reality leave them to it and hold onto your cash.

This is accurate , my sister has a house for sale at the minute and its tumbleweed on the streets.

0gac3yjefb5sv7 · 23-03-2020 1:14am

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

There will be no underbidders right now. I'd offer 70 - 80% of value if you were already sale agreed and if the seller is denying reality leave them to it and hold onto your cash.

Not the place I'm bidding on. The other bidder was 1k below me and 15k above asking....

garhjw · 23-03-2020 1:17am

JamesMason wrote: »

...
Not if or when. It has happened.

nothing has happened yet. You haven’t got a clue what you’re talking about like the majority of people posting in this thread. Nobody knows what will happen over next 12 months.

sun0shine · 23-03-2020 1:27am

I am in process of buying a new build house in commuter town ~360K range, loan offer in place but haven't signed contracts yet.
Certainly market is going to tumble..
Bargain on new build an option in this stage? or time to pull out?

garhjw · 23-03-2020 1:29am

sun0shine wrote: »

I am in process of buying a new build house in commuter town ~360K range, loan offer in place but haven't signed contracts yet.
Certainly market is going to tumble..
Bargain on new build an option in this stage? or time to pull out?

I wouldn’t take the advice of anyone who posts in here. Some serious whackos....

q85dw7osi4lebg · 23-03-2020 1:59am

garhjw wrote: »

I wouldn’t take the advice of anyone who posts in here. Some serious whackos....

Correct, 90% have never gone through the buying process.

theballz · 23-03-2020 8:02am

garhjw wrote: »

nothing has happened yet. You haven’t got a clue what you’re talking about like the majority of people posting in this thread. Nobody knows what will happen over next 12 months.

Nothing has happened? Have you looked out the window the last month?

voluntary · 23-03-2020 8:16am

sun0shine wrote: »

I am in process of buying a new build house in commuter town ~360K range, loan offer in place but haven't signed contracts yet.
Certainly market is going to tumble..
Bargain on new build an option in this stage? or time to pull out?

Builders need revenue to survive. This is a closed loop circle, they borrow money which need to pay back, purchase materials, pay wages. Staff wages do not stop when there's no buyers. There's only a certain amount of time businesses can survive without a revenue stream, so my bet is that they'll try to close as many deals at the current prices as they can now but as soon as the remaining demand dries out there will be deals and promotions.

As they already pay wages to workers and may have bargain deals now on materials then one option would be to bargain an extra work done on the house included in the price. Maybe try to get a 'free' kitchen fit in or an attic conversion, or some stuff like that.

Labour / materials may be cheap to them now, while cash is in super demand. Getting extra work done may be the easiest for you to bargain.

garhjw · 23-03-2020 8:21am

theballz wrote: »

Nothing has happened? Have you looked out the window the last month?

In relation to the property market..... nothing has happened yet. Prices have not floored. There is not a flood of units coming to market at knock down rates..... this is a property thread, nothing has happened to the property market yet in terms of prices falling, supply increasing etc...

Property Market 2020

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