[Gonzo]

Mod Note

This thread is for posting / discussing /analyzing charts up to T120 ( in the more reliable time frame) for Spring 2021.

If your post does not specifically relate to the charts then it doesn't belong here off topic posts will be moved or deleted- please use the Spring Discussion thread for general chat.

Thanks

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Spring 2020 was an incredible Spring and the only decent season in 2020. It was a mostly dry Spring and got quite warm at times in the west while the east remained on the cool side with onshore easterly breezes for much of the time.

Winter 2020/2021 ended on a very mild note with a very mild February. There has been a real feeling of Spring for the past few weeks already but what does Spring 2021 have in store for us this year?

The first week of Spring 2021 looks largely dry and mild, however it may become slightly cooler as the first week carries over into the second week.

High Pressure will dominate for much of the coming week.



By Friday we may begin to lose the high pressure signal as a change to cooler and perhaps more unsettled weather might be on the way.



Little or no rainfall is expected between now and Friday 5th of March.

[US2]

Quite here. How we looking for the weekend ?

[King of Spades]

Originally Posted by US2

Quite here. How we looking for the weekend ?

Looks like there won’t be any weather until next week i.e cool, cloudy, calm and dry for most parts until Monday.

[pauldry]

Originally Posted by King of Spades

Looks like there won’t be any weather until next week i.e cool, cloudy, calm and dry for most parts until Monday.

Yeah I was wondering when thered be weather again. The past 3 days have been dark and cloudy with 3 minutes of sunshine yesterday. If this is Groundhog Day in real life I'm off to space.

Top 3 worst weathers
.
1. Dull and misty drizzle
2. Dull and cloudy like now soooo dark
3. Cold and Wet

[Chris_5339762]

#2 to me is fine, at least it is dry! Yes, its boring out, and cold, but at least its not raining.

[Meteorite58]

Rain keeps getting pushed out and not much until Tuesday into Weds, looking quite wet then. Windy frontal passage on Tuesday and Weds into Thurs looking potentially very windy. Met Eireann out of the blocks early with guidance : Wednesday night and Thursday: Potentially extremely windy on Wednesday night and for much of Thursday, with gale force southwest winds veering westerly and with some severe and damaging gusts likely. Rain will clear eastwards overnight followed by heavy squally showers later in the night and for Thursday, some of hail and thunder. Turning colder overnight with lowest temperatures of 2 to 4 degrees. Highest temperatures on Thursday of 7 to 9 degrees.

All the models showing potentially very strong winds across the country and higher again along Atlantic Coastal counties.

Coming in a bit earlier on the latest runs from Weds afternoon / early evening onto the coastal counties and spreading overland through the evening early morning, strongest winds possibly cleared by 07.00 or thereabouts.

Cold unstable airflow following so plenty of heavy showers with risk of hail and thunder. Some showers wintry more so over higher ground in the W, NW.

[Meteorite58]

Models showing a potential nasty storm Weds into Thurs with what looks like a following lively wave on Thurs. Early days and time for change to track and intensity. Models have intensified this over the last few runs. As the ECM shows on the 18Z that would be high end warnings but it has the storm tracking much further S on this run so maybe adjusted too much and time for it to go back to previous track ??

GFS tracking further North similar to the last run and similar to the way ECM was tracking .

UKMO strong but was stronger on the last run.

So early days and would expect plenty of changes yet but looks like they could be onto something significant.

[Meteorite58]

So the system looks to be travelling very quickly and is deepening rapidly as it reaches our shores aided by the Jet ( left exit )and looks like a fairly steep thermal gradient .

[Chris_5339762]

That storm can naff off. Give us spring weather now please. Though in my experience (very limited) these things usually come in further north and slightly earlier than predicted.

[Meteorite58]

Getting quite windy in the SW again tomorrow evening ( close to a yellow warning for Kerry ) and blustery overland. Fairly windy overland for much of the country on Saturday.

Plenty of showers and more prolonged spells of rain some wintry and of hail and sporadic thunderstorms.

Feeling quite cold in the wind.

[Meteorite58]

Turning more settled and drier next week, bit cooler towards the end of the week.

Best Temperatures further South

[Meteorite58]

Friday's weather just straddling both sides of 120hrs so put it in here . Cold blast from the W , N/W introducing an unstable wintry airmass . Looking like hail, sleet and maybe snow on higher ground more so the W, NW, N , could see some overnight flurries settle briefly on lower elevations. Daytime temperatures probably too high for anything settling on lower elevations but could get large hail showers putting down brief coatings locally ( this kind of set up can produce temporary locally dangerous driving conditions ) Could be quite convective in nature and will be interesting to see if we get a fair amount of thunderstorms across the country. Fresh and feeling quite cold .Highest daytime temperatures in the E, SE of the country. All the models showing the colder mid levels.

[Meteorite58]

All the models still showing very cold mid and upper level temperatures from later Thursday into Friday. A standout day after all the settled early spring like weather. Thinking it could be fairly wintry especially in the Western half of the country with higher ground in the W and NW possibly getting a coating of snow. Looks ripe for big convective weather with localized heavy hail showers and thunderstorms look likely and would think a few might pack a punch but we will know more nearer the time. Troughs look set to cross the country possibly leading to more organized bands of rain and wintry showers, windy also with an added chill.

[Nqp15hhu]

Risk of snow still on the cards but now looks to be later in the day rather than Friday early hours.

[Meteorite58]

Still a bit on the cool side tomorrow but temps improving from Sunday if somewhat wet, after a damp start dry for much of the country on Monday apart from the W, NW where it should clear in the afternoon, looking mostly dry Tues and Weds.