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Charts ( Up to T120 ) Spring 2021 ** READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

  • 28-02-2021 1:38pm
    #1
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 15,180 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Gonzo


    Mod Note

    This thread is for posting / discussing /analyzing charts up to T120 ( in the more reliable time frame) for Spring 2021.

    If your post does not specifically relate to the charts then it doesn't belong here off topic posts will be moved or deleted- please use the Spring Discussion thread for general chat.

    Thanks



    Spring 2020 was an incredible Spring and the only decent season in 2020. It was a mostly dry Spring and got quite warm at times in the west while the east remained on the cool side with onshore easterly breezes for much of the time.

    Winter 2020/2021 ended on a very mild note with a very mild February. There has been a real feeling of Spring for the past few weeks already but what does Spring 2021 have in store for us this year?

    The first week of Spring 2021 looks largely dry and mild, however it may become slightly cooler as the first week carries over into the second week.

    High Pressure will dominate for much of the coming week.

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    By Friday we may begin to lose the high pressure signal as a change to cooler and perhaps more unsettled weather might be on the way.

    GFSOPEU06_120_1.png

    Little or no rainfall is expected between now and Friday 5th of March.

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Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 2,651 ✭✭✭ US2


    Quite here. How we looking for the weekend ?


  • Registered Users Posts: 119 ✭✭ King of Spades


    US2 wrote: »
    Quite here. How we looking for the weekend ?

    Looks like there won’t be any weather until next week i.e cool, cloudy, calm and dry for most parts until Monday.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,852 ✭✭✭ pauldry


    Looks like there won’t be any weather until next week i.e cool, cloudy, calm and dry for most parts until Monday.

    Yeah I was wondering when thered be weather again. The past 3 days have been dark and cloudy with 3 minutes of sunshine yesterday. If this is Groundhog Day in real life I'm off to space.

    Top 3 worst weathers
    .
    1. Dull and misty drizzle
    2. Dull and cloudy like now soooo dark
    3. Cold and Wet


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,977 ✭✭✭ Chris_5339762


    #2 to me is fine, at least it is dry! Yes, its boring out, and cold, but at least its not raining.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,465 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Rain keeps getting pushed out and not much until Tuesday into Weds, looking quite wet then. Windy frontal passage on Tuesday and Weds into Thurs looking potentially very windy. Met Eireann out of the blocks early with guidance : Wednesday night and Thursday: Potentially extremely windy on Wednesday night and for much of Thursday, with gale force southwest winds veering westerly and with some severe and damaging gusts likely. Rain will clear eastwards overnight followed by heavy squally showers later in the night and for Thursday, some of hail and thunder. Turning colder overnight with lowest temperatures of 2 to 4 degrees. Highest temperatures on Thursday of 7 to 9 degrees.

    All the models showing potentially very strong winds across the country and higher again along Atlantic Coastal counties.

    Coming in a bit earlier on the latest runs from Weds afternoon / early evening onto the coastal counties and spreading overland through the evening early morning, strongest winds possibly cleared by 07.00 or thereabouts.

    Cold unstable airflow following so plenty of heavy showers with risk of hail and thunder. Some showers wintry more so over higher ground in the W, NW.

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,465 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Models showing a potential nasty storm Weds into Thurs with what looks like a following lively wave on Thurs. Early days and time for change to track and intensity. Models have intensified this over the last few runs. As the ECM shows on the 18Z that would be high end warnings but it has the storm tracking much further S on this run so maybe adjusted too much and time for it to go back to previous track ??

    GFS tracking further North similar to the last run and similar to the way ECM was tracking .

    UKMO strong but was stronger on the last run.

    So early days and would expect plenty of changes yet but looks like they could be onto something significant.

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,465 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    So the system looks to be travelling very quickly and is deepening rapidly as it reaches our shores aided by the Jet ( left exit )and looks like a fairly steep thermal gradient .

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  • Registered Users Posts: 4,977 ✭✭✭ Chris_5339762


    That storm can naff off. Give us spring weather now please. Though in my experience (very limited) these things usually come in further north and slightly earlier than predicted.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,465 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Getting quite windy in the SW again tomorrow evening ( close to a yellow warning for Kerry ) and blustery overland. Fairly windy overland for much of the country on Saturday.

    Plenty of showers and more prolonged spells of rain some wintry and of hail and sporadic thunderstorms.

    Feeling quite cold in the wind.


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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,465 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Turning more settled and drier next week, bit cooler towards the end of the week.

    Best Temperatures further South

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,465 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Friday's weather just straddling both sides of 120hrs so put it in here . Cold blast from the W , N/W introducing an unstable wintry airmass . Looking like hail, sleet and maybe snow on higher ground more so the W, NW, N , could see some overnight flurries settle briefly on lower elevations. Daytime temperatures probably too high for anything settling on lower elevations but could get large hail showers putting down brief coatings locally ( this kind of set up can produce temporary locally dangerous driving conditions ) Could be quite convective in nature and will be interesting to see if we get a fair amount of thunderstorms across the country. Fresh and feeling quite cold .Highest daytime temperatures in the E, SE of the country. All the models showing the colder mid levels.


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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,465 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    All the models still showing very cold mid and upper level temperatures from later Thursday into Friday. A standout day after all the settled early spring like weather. Thinking it could be fairly wintry especially in the Western half of the country with higher ground in the W and NW possibly getting a coating of snow. Looks ripe for big convective weather with localized heavy hail showers and thunderstorms look likely and would think a few might pack a punch but we will know more nearer the time. Troughs look set to cross the country possibly leading to more organized bands of rain and wintry showers, windy also with an added chill.

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  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 2,254 ✭✭✭ Nqp15hhu


    Risk of snow still on the cards but now looks to be later in the day rather than Friday early hours.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,465 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Still a bit on the cool side tomorrow but temps improving from Sunday if somewhat wet, after a damp start dry for much of the country on Monday apart from the W, NW where it should clear in the afternoon, looking mostly dry Tues and Weds.

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,465 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Sun, Mon and Tues holding the temperatures well, Weds looks cooler away from the S coasts on the latest run.

    Plenty of rainfall in the W, NW and high ground in the SW over the Weekend into Mon.

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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,570 ✭✭✭ Tyrone212


    Recent gfs for 3pm Wednesday

    Big difference in temperature across the country.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,465 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Weds fairly decent temperatures towards the SE , looks cloudy for most.

    Thurs a bit of a surprise in the SW, could get up around 20C

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,465 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Sunday /Monday coming into view now into the more reliable timeframe and looking very cold from later Sunday. Looking across the models and they would in general appear to beef up the wintry precipitation levels. Early days yet but not only have they held on to the projected cold mid level temperatures tonight the ECM, UKMO,GFS, ICON and GEM showing -10C and lower 850 hPa temps later Sunday into Mon, the Fax charts showing trough lines feeding down over the country and I am thinking that there is a growing possibility of snowfall mainly for now in Northern counties overnight Sunday into Monday. The models of course differ but some showing widespread snow falling but too early to know. As for settling snow that is another question and probably wouldn't last long unless there was a substantial dump and of course depending on the altitude of the terrain. Windy too ( some yellow warnings possible ) especially on to coasts and the W, NW, N and E coasts quite fresh. ICON showing a very cold wind chill and at this early stage showing widespread wintry falls including snow to lower levels in places, especially in the Northern half of the country but perhaps not much sticking lower down.

    Unstable flow also and early indications of convective showers of hail and potential for thunderstorms but not high at this stage, need to be closer the time to have a better idea.

    Just my interpretation of the charts at the moment out of interest.

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  • Registered Users Posts: 6,447 ✭✭✭ pad199207


    Absolute nuisance but pretty remarkable

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  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 2,254 ✭✭✭ Nqp15hhu


    Indeed the 510 dam line almost touches my location! Unbelievably cold! Very fascinating Synoptics!

    I imagine we will be pummelled with snow showers! Cannot wait! Will be interesting to see how much of a drop we get with the cold front?


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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,465 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    I hope to be reporting 20c tomorrow as I have lunch al fresco by my pond :pac:

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  • Registered Users Posts: 4,172 ✭✭✭ Widdensushi


    I hope you are not overlooked ����


  • Registered Users Posts: 502 ✭✭✭ Wine Goddess


    I hope to be reporting 20c tomorrow as I have lunch al fresco by my pond :pac:

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    Wowsers!
    It's really chilly here in Firhouse Dublin 24 you can feel that Arctic chill in the air.
    Mad to think you'll be sunbathing in glorious Kerry!


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,465 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Just been keeping an eye on Fri /Sat when it is expected to turn colder again after a couple of degrees rise during daytime midweek. The models all showing cold mid level temperatures and are showing cold if not very cold 500 hPa temps nearby or over us. Been showing a rise in precipitation also but we have seen how the charts got downgraded with a big shift East leading up to the current cold spell, nevertheless it is something to keep an eye on perhaps. Currently looks to have convective potential leading to wintry precipitation, hail and thunderstorms would be a possibility going by current ECM 12Z. Early days but for me anyway a focus to pin point and see how the models are fairing and if anything comes of it.



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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,465 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Keeping relatively dry over the coming days apart from a few heavier local showers. Wondering how much the fronts will move in over Ireland later Fri / early Sat, currently looks like the HP will do a fair job of blocking it for a good part of the country on Sat but looks a bit wet up along Atlantic counties and lighter the further inland and may not reach the E or SE, but early days yet, Sun is another story but that is beyond +120 hrs yet.

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 15,180 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Gonzo


    The prolonged dry spell will continue over the next 7 to 10 days with high pressure dominating over the coming week.

    Temperatures will be around average for the time of year reaching 10 to 15C. Eastern areas may be cooler at times due to easterly or south-easterly sea breezes.

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    High pressure will last into the weekend and the early part of next week before colder weather will move down from the north.

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    The extended dry spell of weather will continue with little or no rain over the coming week.

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    It should feel pleasantly mild in most areas away from the coastal areas with some strong sunshine at times making it feel very nice. Great weather for walking, cycling and gardening.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,852 ✭✭✭ pauldry


    End of April start of May looks cold but the Atlantic is dead for now (probably will reinvigorate itself in time for Summer:o)


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,465 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    ECM shows well how we get the most out of the Temperatures here NW of Tralee on these set ups when there is a SE'ly breeze and an added Fohn effect. Sat looks decent.

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  • Registered Users Posts: 5,852 ✭✭✭ pauldry


    Monday looks like there could be a rainfall warning.
    After all it is a Bank Holiday

    Yr.no has predicted 25mm for Sligo and they are usually reliable.


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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,465 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Monday now looking quite windy on the coasts and blustery overland, might get some bit of a clearance in the afternoon with showers following the front. Some heavy rain showing up on the models especially Northern areas.

    Cool enough for most of the country especially in Northern areas, mildest along Southern counties.


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