Charts ( Up to T120 ) Spring 2021 ** READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

Models showing a potential nasty storm Weds into Thurs with what looks like a following lively wave on Thurs. Early days and time for change to track and intensity. Models have intensified this over the last few runs. As the ECM shows on the 18Z that would be high end warnings but it has the storm tracking much further S on this run so maybe adjusted too much and time for it to go back to previous track ??

GFS tracking further North similar to the last run and similar to the way ECM was tracking .

UKMO strong but was stronger on the last run.

So early days and would expect plenty of changes yet but looks like they could be onto something significant.

Turning more settled and drier next week, bit cooler towards the end of the week.

Best Temperatures further South

All the models still showing very cold mid and upper level temperatures from later Thursday into Friday. A standout day after all the settled early spring like weather. Thinking it could be fairly wintry especially in the Western half of the country with higher ground in the W and NW possibly getting a coating of snow. Looks ripe for big convective weather with localized heavy hail showers and thunderstorms look likely and would think a few might pack a punch but we will know more nearer the time. Troughs look set to cross the country possibly leading to more organized bands of rain and wintry showers, windy also with an added chill.

Still a bit on the cool side tomorrow but temps improving from Sunday if somewhat wet, after a damp start dry for much of the country on Monday apart from the W, NW where it should clear in the afternoon, looking mostly dry Tues and Weds.

Sunday /Monday coming into view now into the more reliable timeframe and looking very cold from later Sunday. Looking across the models and they would in general appear to beef up the wintry precipitation levels. Early days yet but not only have they held on to the projected cold mid level temperatures tonight the ECM, UKMO,GFS, ICON and GEM showing -10C and lower 850 hPa temps later Sunday into Mon, the Fax charts showing trough lines feeding down over the country and I am thinking that there is a growing possibility of snowfall mainly for now in Northern counties overnight Sunday into Monday. The models of course differ but some showing widespread snow falling but too early to know. As for settling snow that is another question and probably wouldn't last long unless there was a substantial dump and of course depending on the altitude of the terrain. Windy too ( some yellow warnings possible ) especially on to coasts and the W, NW, N and E coasts quite fresh. ICON showing a very cold wind chill and at this early stage showing widespread wintry falls including snow to lower levels in places, especially in the Northern half of the country but perhaps not much sticking lower down.

Unstable flow also and early indications of convective showers of hail and potential for thunderstorms but not high at this stage, need to be closer the time to have a better idea.

Just my interpretation of the charts at the moment out of interest.

Just been keeping an eye on Fri /Sat when it is expected to turn colder again after a couple of degrees rise during daytime midweek. The models all showing cold mid level temperatures and are showing cold if not very cold 500 hPa temps nearby or over us. Been showing a rise in precipitation also but we have seen how the charts got downgraded with a big shift East leading up to the current cold spell, nevertheless it is something to keep an eye on perhaps. Currently looks to have convective potential leading to wintry precipitation, hail and thunderstorms would be a possibility going by current ECM 12Z. Early days but for me anyway a focus to pin point and see how the models are fairing and if anything comes of it.

ECM shows well how we get the most out of the Temperatures here NW of Tralee on these set ups when there is a SE'ly breeze and an added Fohn effect. Sat looks decent.

Monday now looking quite windy on the coasts and blustery overland, might get some bit of a clearance in the afternoon with showers following the front. Some heavy rain showing up on the models especially Northern areas.

Cool enough for most of the country especially in Northern areas, mildest along Southern counties.

Quite a deep depression out there off the W and lucky that it is filling on approach .

Sunday looking fairly blustery overland from early morning to later that evening. Showers could be widespread and looks like the W and NW getting the brunt of it, possibly thundery too.


https://twitter.com/NWSOPC/status/1390782679281389568?s=20

Big uncertainty on the track and strength of the LP around Thurs/ Fri. Big change from the ECM since the last run, GFS lower keeping the strongest winds offshore.

Would expect to see changes in this for a time to come but worth keeping an eye on it.

Both showing some very wet conditions but will depend on track.

Models showing it to be very wet all right for Thurs and Fri with various wind strengths being shown by the models atm with different tracks. Windy/ blustery at times at least and maybe stronger winds in the SW and along S coasts for a time as is often the case, no models showing it stronger than yellow wind warning level atm, and quite possible for rain warnings as Pauldry pointed out.

Relatively slow moving depression.