Convective/Thunderstorm Discussion : Winter 2020/Spring 2021

Sat still holding firm on convective potential leading to widespread showers some heavy and of hail and potential for thunderstorms quite widespread also I reckon. Would have thought that Sat could be the most active day over Ireland in some time. Cold air aloft coincides with peak diurnal heating, Lapse rates fairly decent, what is lacking is DLS so probably nothing too explosive or long lasting, more pulse like ? Showers and activity look to decrease early evening. Mix of wintry showers and becoming very cold leading to widespread frosts after dark. Snow and hail on higher elevations leading to snowcapped mountains which should be spectacular Sun morning.

A clearly defined convergence zone as well down along the Irish sea in the early hours of Sun morning, MUCAPE readings quite low but might produce some heavy showers and hail/ wintry showers possible too along the E coasts maybe the odd flash out to sea.

Attended the TORRO conference online yesterday, very interesting day. One of the highlights was this case study by Dan Holly of Weatherquest, very detailed look at the parameters that gave extreme thunderstorms and rainfall in Norfolk last year, well worth a watch, top class presentation.

Big heavy convective showers tomorrow and will see if any produce hail and lightning , would reckon it needs enough sunny breaks for surface heating to get Convection proper going. Very cold upper pool of air and troughs slow moving across the country, not much lower shear available but some Deep layer shear, more then Tuesday. Much more moisture available in the atmosphere tomorrow so some places could get a fair drenching whilst a lot of areas will receive little or any rain. A couple of hundred J/kg available at times, best chance of any lightning would be in the afternoon, some places locally could get 5 to 10mm rainfall , possibly in a short amount of time. Met Eireann did mention threat of localized surface flooding in the forecast after the news tonight.

Showers feeding down on a Northerly flow over the next few days convective in nature over land producing some heavy showers with the risk of hail and thunderstorms, more so in the Northern half of the country. Best chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon during peak diurnal heating. Nice bit of Deep Layer Shear showing up on the charts for Weds.

Will see if sparks are produced tomorrow, will be some very heavy localized showers in the W and NW especially, some possibly producing hail. Best potential looks like the W and NW for thunderstorms. Lots of shear and vorticity available tomorrow , maybe a funnel will be spotted.