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Convective/Thunderstorm Discussion : Winter 2020/Spring 2021

  • 04-12-2020 9:41am
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 1,751 ✭✭✭ SlowBlowin


    Big strike near Sneem, power out.


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Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 1,751 ✭✭✭ SlowBlowin


    That was some strike, huge power, it was at 8:37 on my CCTV which stayed up for once. There was no storm it just came as a single strike. Someone on here posted a link where you could playback the strike and get more info, anyone know what the site was ?


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,477 ✭✭✭ Comhrá


    SlowBlowin wrote: »
    That was some strike, huge power, it was at 8:37 on my CCTV which stayed up for once. There was no storm it just came as a single strike. Someone on here posted a link where you could playback the strike and get more info, anyone know what the site was ?

    This one maybe?

    https://www.blitzortung.org/en/historical_maps.php?map=12

    or this one..

    https://max.nwstatic.co.uk/tiles/8/120/83.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,751 ✭✭✭ SlowBlowin


    Comhra wrote: »

    Thanks for the links.

    No it actually gave the estimated power of the strike, I will have to look though some old posts. We get lots of activity up here and this strike really was exceptional.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,751 ✭✭✭ SlowBlowin




  • Registered Users Posts: 8,201 ✭✭✭ Gaoth Laidir


    SlowBlowin wrote: »

    There was another negative strike just north of that, which was called a "Sissy mutterer". Great name :D

    535138.PNG


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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,751 ✭✭✭ SlowBlowin


    Strangely the "Impressive" strike I was originally talking about was the Sissy Mutterer ! Its was much brighter than the "slammer" that followed it..


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,466 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    ECM has a set of charts on Thurs showing thunderstorm potential, hinting at it the last couple of runs. There will be a passage of an occluded front followed by troughs across Ireland in the afternoon, not particularly heavy on the charts but the ECM showing a fairly high theta E reading with a lot of low level and deep layer shear. Modest CAPE readings which lessen as the front crosses the country. The band of warmer moist air running into colder air. Modest lapse rates but the prediction charts showing thunderstorm potential along the advancing front. Modest upper temperatures. No mention on any forecasts. Wonder is the ECM overcooking this ???


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,466 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    ECM charts going for thunderstorms along the occluded front crossing Ireland from the W tomorrow. Intriguing as no mention in forecasts and little or nothing showing in the other models and maybe the model is overdoing this, can get it wrong but unusual to see it so full on with thunderstorm potential and I am wondering why.

    In my limited experience I make out a tongue of relatively high theta e advancing into much colder air, the converging winds and upper winds give a lot of shear and vorticity I suppose helping lift the advancing warm moist air up over the cold air which gives the instability to form thunderstorms ??? Seems to be very little CAPE showing so it looks like the instability is quiet elevated, but again don't know if this is exactly what the model is basing it's thunderstorm potential on.

    Any opinions.

    As important to know when the models are misreading the situation as when it gets it right.

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  • Registered Users Posts: 475 ✭✭ bazlers


    Excellant post as always Meteorite. Difficult to say. You could be on to something. Ingredients are there just see how they interact.


  • Registered Users Posts: 9,393 ✭✭✭ Oscar Bravo


    Shannon Airport TAF forecasting moderate rain between 1pm and 5pm. Certainly wouldnt rule out some thundery bursts. Wind going south westerly as the front passes over.

    1013/1017 16015G25KT 3000 RA BKN014
    BECMG 1014/1016 22015KT TEMPO 1019/1024 4000 SHRA SCT018CB


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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,466 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Nah, nothing overland, didn't even look threatening, quite overcast at times with just light rain here near Tralee, no sign of any convection both from the ground and the Sat pics, must have been overestimating the mid level ability to produce instability because there was next to no ground based CAPE.


  • Registered Users Posts: 761 ✭✭✭ Kutebride


    Pouring rain Meath. There is a unusual glow from the sky. 8 celcius.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,466 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Met Eireann dropped the mention of thunderstorms in the forecast, a few sferics showing up off the SW and W this morning, some big showers going through here in Kerry, some high cloud tops can be seen on the Sat Pics, will see if a couple of strikes stray onto the coasts, pulse type so probably just the odd strike at best. The Irish sea later ??



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    http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2020-12-13



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    Day 1 Convective Outlook
    VALID 06:00 UTC Sun 13 Dec 2020 - 05:59 UTC Mon 14 Dec 2020

    ISSUED 08:30 UTC Sun 13 Dec 2020

    ISSUED BY: Dan

    Outbreaks of rain will spread erratically northeastwards across the British Isles as a frontal system arrives from the Atlantic. Behind, cold air aloft with reasonably-steep mid-level lapse rates will overspread relatively warm SSTs to generate a few hundred J/kg CAPE over open waters and coastal districts in the west. Therefore, scattered showers become increasingly likely, initially over Ireland during Sunday afternoon before the risk expands eastwards across Britain through the evening and night, and these will become organised into discrete bands as one or more shortwave troughs swing through the in the broad southwesterly flow aloft. Given the strongly-sheared environment, some line segments will be possible at times with perhaps a low-topped supercell, capable of producing squally winds and the risk of an isolated tornado. The risk of sporadic lightning is greatest near western coasts, and so particular attention is given to the Irish Sea into parts of Wales, NW England and SW Scotland - however the coverage of lightning is not expected to be significant enough to warrant a SLGT.


  • Registered Users Posts: 9,457 ✭✭✭ spookwoman


    Load of activity off the south east coast


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,708 ✭✭✭ igCorcaigh


    spookwoman wrote: »
    Load of activity off the south east coast

    There is! Any chance of it coming onshore?


  • Registered Users Posts: 9,457 ✭✭✭ spookwoman


    igCorcaigh wrote: »
    There is! Any chance of it coming onshore?

    Maybe off the tip of wexford, seems to be heading north east

    Update - Looks like staying way out to sea. There is a chance so will be keeping an eye out


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,033 ✭✭✭ Oneiric 3


    That's it. I'm moving to Saudi Arabia:



    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wOci5LR6K4M

    New Moon



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,466 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Oneiric 3 wrote: »
    That's it. I'm moving to Saudi Arabia:

    Felt that from here !! Ferocious stuff.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,409 ✭✭✭ Jpmarn


    Oneiric 3 wrote: »
    That's it. I'm moving to Saudi Arabia:



    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wOci5LR6K4M

    That video is 5 years old.


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,477 ✭✭✭ Comhrá


    Oneiric 3 wrote: »
    That's it. I'm moving to Saudi Arabia:


    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wOci5LR6K4M


    Beats snow any day of the week.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 9,393 ✭✭✭ Oscar Bravo


    Bright flashes of lightning south west of Castlebar now


  • Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,114 Mod ✭✭✭✭ DOCARCH


    Set up new thread for the new seasons.


  • Registered Users Posts: 500 ✭✭✭ Goldfinch8


    Another good flash out to the west. Mayo.


  • Registered Users Posts: 725 ✭✭✭ monster1


    I was seeing flashes travelling from Galway towards roscommon in the distance. Clear sky though.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,466 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    monster1 wrote: »
    I was seeing flashes travelling from Galway towards roscommon in the distance. Clear sky though.

    Storm firing away just off the coast all right.

    KsTRWYI.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,136 ✭✭✭ lolie


    Knew i wasn't seeing things earlier, i could seen faint flashes in the distance from here.


  • Registered Users Posts: 21,818 ✭✭✭✭ Kermit.de.frog


    Storm firing away just off the coast all right.

    KsTRWYI.png

    Spanish plume was it? :p


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,466 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Spanish plume was it? :p

    The only thing Spanish up around there were a few fishing boats :pac:

    CAPE present tonight and tomorrow, more so over water as we increasingly move under very cold uppers giving steep lapse rates. Lots of convection forming over the sea giving some heavy showers of rain and some of hail and thunderwhich could push inland and with a decent amount of shear overland might have a few sparks .

    Might be good for cloudscapes tomorrow.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 4,032 ✭✭✭ Duvet Day


    Can anyone confirm if there's lightening near Cork city, thought I saw a flash a few minutes ago?


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  • Registered Users Posts: 23 DanielL18


    Big strike down in west cork just there. Power went for few seconds


This discussion has been closed.
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