Fancies For Today III

zimmermania · 22-10-2020 10:58am

Positives for punters in lockdown?

Punting is a very minor thing with what is happening all around us now but life goes on albeit in a tototally different way and perhaps with the betting shops closed for the next 6 weeks we can all look at how we bet on horses and how much we actually put in the pockets of bookmakers.

Now we have nowhere to hide,our online accounts will tell us exactly what we win or lose over the next 6 weeks,no forgetting the odd score ew when we slipped into the betting shop and bringing on losses from one week to the next.

I am going to look at the bets i place more carefully and while betting on horses is a hobby for many of us we should try to ensure the hobby costs as little as possibe,many will be surprised by the amount we bet when its all added up and we will see clearly the type of punters we are.

I am more or less an ew punter,i like big handicaps that are difficult to solve and i spend a bit of time on them most weeks when i have time.

I also bet on group and condition races and occasionally one can get exceptional value but normally prices are tight and the top yards mop up.
Addeybb was a rare exception last saturday when near the top of the ratings and better than ever on ground he loves he went off at 9/1.

That was unusual but it does happen,we have accept that we will back a lot of losers if we chase the winners of the big handicaps week in week out but with the form well established and finding one laid out for a race,getting on at a good price and seeing the horse come home in front is very satisfying.

Whatever method we use use we should now try to look coldly at our betting patterns and use this period to improve.

AnniePowwa · 22-10-2020 11:30am

2.30 Half nutz 4/1

pottokblue · 22-10-2020 4:51pm

I like valleyofflowers e/w in the opener at Chelmsford

22-10-2020 7:04pm

8.00 Chelmsford ASK SIRI 28/1 Gen

A 15 runner maiden who has ran 5 times over today's 1m trip at Kempton and Lingfield.
In all those 5 runs she has finished closer to first than last, and finished within a couple of
lengths of the winner twice. Perhaps the change of venue can spark a bit of improvement on
her first run at the course. Eight go to post so 3 places available. Trainer John Bridger had a
winner yesterday with the 11yr old pettochside, and the owners are "Stewart Bridger Bxps" ;
so he'll want to be getting a winner for family I think at some stage, and it might be today.

Gluck

22-10-2020 7:53pm

^^^^^^^
66/1 now - very tasty

22-10-2020 8:05pm

Faded away very tamely alas in the home straight having tried to make all did Ask Siri.

zimmermania · 22-10-2020 11:37pm

JUMAIRA BAY has run some good races but only has a maiden win to his credit,wore blinkers last time and they seemed to help.

It is probable that he is genuine enough but the blinkers may help him to concentrate.

Roger Varian may have found the right race for him in the 4.oc at Newbury and as we know he handles soft ground he is worth backing.

I have a feeling the money will come for this fellow tomorrow.

Scoundrel · 23-10-2020 12:22pm

Hotalena e/w in the 6.30 at Newcastle 10/1

Beat the Judge 3.35 at Cheltenham 11/2 to win.

Scoundrel · 23-10-2020 1:49pm

Scoundrel wrote: »

Hotalena e/w in the 6.30 at Newcastle 10/1

Beat the Judge 3.35 at Cheltenham 11/2 to win.

Hotalena into 9/2 nowðŸ˜³

pottokblue · 23-10-2020 1:57pm

Askdillon WIN the next at Cheltenham or maybe in 2021

zimmermania · 23-10-2020 7:45pm

CHATEZ is the oldest horse at 9 in the 4.45 at Newbury tomorrow,a good competitive handicap that will be run on soft to heavy ground over 10 furlongs,normally i would not be looking at the grandfather of the party but i think there is good reason to think he can win.

Last april he won a 26 runner handicap over a mile here off a mark of 99 and runs off a mark of 90 tomorrow.Shortly after that something happened to the horse as he did not reappear for over 400 days.

Ran only ok in first 4 races this year before a good 5th to Ilarab over c and d beaten 2 1/2 lengths and then 2 weeks ago ran 3 1/2 behind Ilarab again finishing in 3rd place. Aasheq was in front of CHATEZ that day and runs with a chance again tomorrow but with a 5 lb pull CHATEZ may come out on top.

Tempus and Breath Caught (who i put up as the days best bet when winning a month ago) are also in the race,Breath Caught wont like it too soft and Tempus has a lot of weight so CHATEZ 11/1 everywhere put up as a good ew bet,Alan King is in good form and this race was probably the plan before CHATEZ goes back over hurdles.

A horse i would be worried about if there is a strong pace on is Surrey Pride who is in my book as one to really back when running over a mile and a half,too skinny to have a saver on at current price but one to watch from a shrewd yard,if he drifts worth a saver and one to be very interested in.

zimmermania · 24-10-2020 1:32am

BREANSKI has been running too well for his own good this year and he needs to be a few lbs lower to win,it could be an inspired move putting Ray Dawson (a young jock going places)up.

His 5 lbs claim is just what BREANSKI needs to get his head in front in the 4.05 Doncaster,i am hoping he drifts a little in the betting and if so is a solid ew bet.

PP are going 5 paces.

-

zimmermania · 24-10-2020 5:11pm

Breanski not beaten far for a place,Chatez very disappointing in a race where quite a few were well backed inc the winner.

Chatez went out tamely,backing in extremes of going can be tricky but quite a few fancied ones in the race ran below form especially the fav who was very heavily backed,Tuite does not often leave the money behind and i will have Surrey Pride in my tracker as one to pay particular attention to especially over a bit further.

zimmermania · 24-10-2020 5:30pm

A friend of mine suggested 4 to back in the greyhound derby semi finals tonight in Nottingham.

8.06 HOPES BULLET,8.21 WAIKIKI LAD,8.36 SOUTHWOOD JET,8.52 SMURFS MACHINE,i did a lucky 15.

I know nothing about greyhounds but he knows a bit.

24-10-2020 7:52pm

8.15 C'ford BLAIRLOGIE 10/1 Boyles

Appears to stay the trip judging by his last run; which was his first over today's 10fs trip.
Price is very fair.

Andrew00 · 24-10-2020 8:21pm

Princess Zoe tomorrow lads

24-10-2020 8:38pm

2.32 Aintree ACEY MILAN 12/1 PP

Horse was well thought of a couple of years ago. First run in a chase, likes soft ground, and could be thrown in here based on his best hurdles' form. Worth a small win bet for the interest at the prices.

Gluck all

24-10-2020 9:24pm

12.55 Hexham MISSCARLETT 28s Boyles, 33s with bet365

Will give this one an each way chance on her second run after a break. Trip might be a question mark,
but at the prices I feel this mare is worth a small investment. I also think the top two in the betting -
Dubai Outlaw and Cilluirid are opposable given the soft going . WRT Dubai Outlaw I think he's vulnerable on the
ground, and at a best priced 7/4 to win I think a place lay could be the way to go with him.

ATB to those having a go

25-10-2020 11:07am

Andrew00 wrote: »

Princess Zoe tomorrow lads

2.50 Longchamp she's running for anyone who's wondering. Currently on offer between 5/6 and 11/10 from what I can see.

Hope she wins "on the snaff" as MC loves to say :P

AnniePowwa · 25-10-2020 2:07pm

3/1 for itchy feet is a gift surely ?

crushproof · 25-10-2020 2:14pm

[Deleted User] wrote: »

12.55 Hexham MISSCARLETT 28s Boyles, 33s with bet365

And of course the winner is a 66/1!

25-10-2020 2:23pm

^^^
Re Itchy Feet

Bit of a sketchy jumper. I think Oldgrangewood could go well for the Skeltons at 6/1, and at a bigger price
Crievehill at 20s for the Twiston-Davies combo.

25-10-2020 2:37pm

crushproof wrote: »

And of course the winner is a 66/1!

And only 3 finished - funny old game.

AnniePowwa · 25-10-2020 3:05pm

AnniePowwa wrote: »

3/1 for itchy feet is a gift surely ?

Terrible jumper but that's not even the biggest problem nutswell is nothing more than a average handicapper

crushproof · 25-10-2020 3:40pm

[Deleted User] wrote: »

2.32 Aintree ACEY MILAN 12/1 PP

Horse was well thought of a couple of years ago. First run in a chase, likes soft ground, and could be thrown in here based on his best hurdles' form. Worth a small win bet for the interest at the prices.

Gluck all

Good stuff, rough weekend so this made up for it!

25-10-2020 3:42pm

crushproof wrote: »

Good stuff, rough weekend so this made up for it!

At least one of us backed it :pac:

Drat them closed bookies

Andrew00 · 25-10-2020 3:51pm

Rotten drift on Princess Zoe

25-10-2020 4:13pm

Andrew00 wrote: »

Rotten drift on Princess Zoe

Zoe's trainer this morning wasn't exactly bullish; but he reckoned while she wouldn't love the ground, that it would inconvenience the others more.

No one told the Scottish vet, and Subjectivist though about the horse 'not liking' the ground :rolleyes:

AnniePowwa · 26-10-2020 12:55pm

1.55 lightning amber 12/1

26-10-2020 2:37pm

4.10 Redcar

An open apprentice handicap here. It appears that high numbers hold an advantage when the ground is soft.
On the 23 Sept there in a 17 runner H'cap (1 non runner) the order the first five finished going by the draw was
17, 18, 16, 14, 15.

I don't fancy any of the ones drawn high, however, so I've plumped for 3 drawn in the middle, and 1 drawn
low. 4 picks in 1 race

I think Boyle's (probably other shops too) might be paying 5 places, and they are best, or joint best price
on the three picks, which are drawn 10, 12, and 13

TURANGA LEELA 14/1
SHEEPSCAR LAD 12/1
RAADEA 33/1

And the one I went for drawn low is Kibaar (drawn 3) , who was a good second 2 runs back, although drawn highest of all that day in the aforementioned race in 18.

KIBAAR 33/1 Boyles, 40s in Coral

I also think the well backed fav Round The Island might be vulnerable, as although he won well last time, that was in a slowly ran race at Pontefract. At 7, he's not getting any younger. Best priced 10/3 to win so makes some appeal for a
place lay here.

A lot of selections, granted, in one race, so small stakes on some, or all of them only; for any who want to follow. Each way, so hopefully a couple can make the frame.

Gluck

Fancies For Today III

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