Bank of Ireland shares

garrettod · 22-03-2018 4:21pm

littlevillage wrote: »

.....anyone else tempted to add a few shares to their portfolio at these prices?

If it's a long term play then it's probably worth a punt, but short to medium term I'm not so sure (you'll have seen my earlier posts, no doubt).

Investors may get lucky between now and late May, but there are no guarantees that prices will rise a bit, before the traditional summer sell off.

Shauny2010 · 22-03-2018 11:11pm

Deutsche bank and HSBC are pushing down the European banking stocks. The mid-term results of these are expected to be lower than predicted. As for BOI we will have to wait for the interms to see how they are doing. In the short term I see this as a buying opportunity as we are approaching the ex-div date in mid April this should get a boost then week before that.
I am going to buy more while its at this price as I see this as a good long term investment

jd06 · 23-03-2018 4:09pm

Hi, very quick question
I bought boi shares at .27 cent 4 years ago, silly thing to do I'm a complete novice and know nothing about it other than I should have stayed clear!!

Can anyone in plain English tell me what I should do, iv no problem letting them sit. Tia

Gatoh · 23-03-2018 6:15pm

jd06 wrote: »

I bought boi shares at .27 cent ..

27cent = €8.10 todays money. And don't forget stamp duty and broker fees ..

Brexit holds the share price down at this moment but I see no reason why shouldn't you get most of that invested money back if you willing to wait for another 10 years or so

Okon · 23-03-2018 7:16pm

jd06 wrote: »

Can anyone in plain English tell me what I should do, iv no problem letting them sit. Tia

Let them sit long term... there is unlikely to be any short term gains in BOI bearing in mind the price you paid for them.

Geuze · 24-03-2018 12:26am

jd06 wrote: »

Hi, very quick question
I bought boi shares at .27 cent 4 years ago, silly thing to do I'm a complete novice and know nothing about it other than I should have stayed clear!!

Can anyone in plain English tell me what I should do, iv no problem letting them sit. Tia

27 cent............

I paid 10 euro, and thought I was getting a bargain, as they had fallen from a peak of 18 euro.

Gatoh · 24-03-2018 8:40am

Geuze wrote: »

27 cent............

I paid 10 euro, and thought I was getting a bargain, as they had fallen from a peak of 18 euro.

Don't forget share split and share consolidation

otterj · 24-03-2018 12:03pm

Think youll find your at a loss now on your 27 cent investment

feelgoodinc27 · 26-03-2018 3:34pm

A cheque processing fee is mentioned if you want to receive your dividend via cheque, is that a fee for lodging the cheque?

garrettod · 27-03-2018 12:49pm

More cost cutting on the way, with up to 200 more middle management to go....

They've had an open ended voluntary redundancy scheme open for a very long time now and haven't got enough people out, so bar compulsory redundancy I'm not sure how they'll achieve what they want this time around. Compulsory rdundancy will be opposed by unions, particularly while the bank is profitable etc.

I know it all helps the bottom line and there needs to be a bit of a clear out of old staff once every decade, but I'm starting to wonder if the new CEO has anything more in mind than cost cuts and getting the new IT system in ?

John Electrician33 · 29-03-2018 10:35pm

What date do you need to buy the shares at to get the dividend?
If I bought 10,000 euro worth just before that date and sold them a week later what approx would the dividend be and when would it be paid

Cute Hoor · 29-03-2018 11:26pm

John Electrician33 wrote: »

What date do you need to buy the shares at to get the dividend?
If I bought 10,000 euro worth just before that date and sold them a week later what approx would the dividend be and when would it be paid

The ex-dividend date is the 19th April
Dividend payment date is 24th May

So if you buy the shares on the 18th April and sell them on the 19th April you will qualify for the dividend.

Assuming there is no change in the share price between today's price and the price on the 18th April, you will get 1,406 shares for your 10,000 euro. This will qualify you for a dividend of 161.69 euro gross. All things being equal the BOI share price will drop by 11.5 cent (or something close to that) on 19th April, so your 1,406 shares would then be worth 9,838.31.

The above doesn't include the costs of buying and selling of course, nor the tax you would have to pay on the dividend.

Arthur Daley · 29-03-2018 11:32pm

garrettod wrote: »

More cost cutting on the way, with up to 200 more middle management to go....

They've had an open ended voluntary redundancy scheme open for a very long time now and haven't got enough people out, so bar compulsory redundancy I'm not sure how they'll achieve what they want this time around. Compulsory rdundancy will be opposed by unions, particularly while the bank is profitable etc.

I know it all helps the bottom line and there needs to be a bit of a clear out of old staff once every decade, but I'm starting to wonder if the new CEO has anything more in mind than cost cuts and getting the new IT system in ?

What does this save them €30 million? They then gut any experience, skills these people brought to work. The assumption is the people were contributing little or nothing. What is she making €1bn a year, and the big idea she brought over from London is to gut the middle management of the company to save €30m.

No wonder the share price is static.

garrettod · 30-03-2018 12:39pm

John Electrician33 wrote: »

What date do you need to buy the shares at to get the dividend? ...

Cute Hoor has already touched on this, but just to call it out even more clearly - there's an extremely high chance that the price of the share will fall, to reflect the dividend payout (so essentially, what you get in the left hand, you pay out from the right hand).

Buying a share just to collect a dividend, but intending to sell soon afterwards, makes no sense to me - risk of price dropping, cost of buy and sell, all outweigh the potential dividend payment.

Shauny2010 · 02-04-2018 10:47am

We will have a increase in the sp on the run up to April 19th Ex-divi date. I do suspect though that we may not get the 11.5c drop in share price the day after.
I hope to add more before then, but I am long here and also intend to reinvest the dividend back into BOI shares when its paid on the 24th of May

garrettod · 03-04-2018 4:52pm

Shauny2010 wrote: »

We will have a increase in the sp on the run up to April 19th Ex-divi date. I do suspect though that we may not get the 11.5c drop in share price the day after.
I hope to add more before then, but I am long here and also intend to reinvest the dividend back into BOI shares when its paid on the 24th of May

Perhaps some of the dividend has already been priced into the share price ?

Are BoI offering a reinvestment plan for the dividend ?

scheister · 04-04-2018 9:48am

i decided to dip into the pool to double my holding in BOI. Bought more shares this morning for €1 less then what i paid early in the year.

Cute Hoor · 04-04-2018 10:03am

garrettod wrote: »

Are BoI offering a reinvestment plan for the dividend ?

'The option to receive shares in lieu of cash is not being offered in respect of this dividend'

drunkmonkey · 04-04-2018 10:19am

scheister wrote: »

i decided to dip into the pool to double my holding in BOI. Bought more shares this morning for €1 less then what i paid early in the year.

There could easily be another drop of €1 or more, heading to €6 on my charts. Summer is never good for banks and Brexit. Not liking the look of it over the next 12mts.

scheister · 04-04-2018 11:00am

drunkmonkey wrote: »

There could easily be another drop of €1 or more, heading to €6 on my charts. Summer is never good for banks and Brexit. Not liking the look of it over the next 12mts.

where they are in next 12 months is not my issue where they will be in 5-10 years is more my concern so if they dip in S/T im not to worried

daheff · 04-04-2018 2:19pm

Dividends are taxed at your marginal rate (I believe), but CGT is at 33%...so for those looking to just get the dividend...you could (Theoretically) be worse off as you pay higher tax (if on the higher tax rate).

Benildus · 05-04-2018 4:16pm

Bit of a boost today (up over 3% so far) for some reason

Cute Hoor · 05-04-2018 5:37pm

Benildus wrote: »

Bit of a boost today (up over 3% so far) for some reason

There is green across the board today, with banks probably doing particularly well

Shauny2010 · 28-04-2018 4:07pm

No big drop after this went ex-divi which isn't really a surprise considering it was a small one to start.

drunkmonkey · 28-04-2018 4:54pm

Don't hold a bank during the summer, in in green sell in May buy back in November.

Shauny2010 · 29-04-2018 11:28am

If you followed your own advice then you would have lost out over the Summer for the last few years.
The BOI directors have a habit of buying their shares in June. It must be part of the package they are on but when they do it always results in a jump in the share price.

littlevillage · 03-05-2018 1:08pm

Big fall in BOI share price today :-(

The market must be heeding DrunkMonkey ??

otterj · 03-05-2018 6:23pm

Whats the cause of this?

drunkmonkey · 03-05-2018 6:31pm

otterj wrote: »

Whats the cause of this?

Shauny decided to liquidate and buy back into the bitcoin.

Shauny2010 · 03-05-2018 8:56pm

drunkmonkey wrote: »

Shauny decided to liquidate and buy back into the bitcoin.

Sorry con padre I've enough Bitcoin, Might liquidate a few more when it hits $10k again

Gatoh · 30-05-2018 5:59am

May 25 2018
DAVY VIEW
With the publication of its FY 2017 results, Bank of Ireland (BOI) set out its three strategic priorities. We expect further elaboration of these, supported by management’s key financial targets, at the investor day on June 13th. The investor day is a significant opportunity for BOI to address investor uncertainties (transformation programme and UK operations) while setting out its medium-term investment case to increase returns above cost of capital. We believe the investor day is a key catalyst for the stock and reiterate our ‘Outperform’ rating and €8.90 price target.

Beautiful prediction..
Now we play the Waiting Game ( extended )

littlevillage · 31-05-2018 8:57pm

Gatoh wrote: »

May 25 2018
DAVY VIEW
With the publication of its FY 2017 results, Bank of Ireland (BOI) set out its three strategic priorities. We expect further elaboration of these, supported by management’s key financial targets, at the investor day on June 13th. The investor day is a significant opportunity for BOI to address investor uncertainties (transformation programme and UK operations) while setting out its medium-term investment case to increase returns above cost of capital. We believe the investor day is a key catalyst for the stock and reiterate our ‘Outperform’ rating and €8.90 price target.

Beautiful prediction..
Now we play the Waiting Game ( extended )

BOI used to own Davy Stockbrokers and presumably are still their Stockbroker of choice, soo can't really take anything they say about BOI with anything but a big pinch of Salt. Incidently BOI Share price fell almost 4% today :-(

garrettod · 01-06-2018 12:58pm

littlevillage wrote: »

BOI used to own Davy Stockbrokers and presumably are still their Stockbroker of choice, soo can't really take anything they say about BOI with anything but a big pinch of Salt. ....

Must admit, I really struggle to accept some of the price targets that come out of Davys also. The recent target for CRH being one that springs to mind.

The mere potential for a conflict of interest should be called out in big bold black print, every time Davys issue a price target on a company's share.

Pussyhands · 06-06-2018 10:26am

Just found this thread.

Was the original price in 2011 7c?

How come the price hasn't recovered majorly since the crash?

Looking at the full graph of it's lifetime, the line has been a bottom flat one since 2010/11.

garrettod · 06-06-2018 12:29pm

Pussyhands wrote: »

....How come the price hasn't recovered majorly since the crash? ....

To be honest, looking at recent years history doesn't really help here for a few reasons:

- the sever recession and related loan losses
- the banking crisis and resulting lack of funding etc.
- the state taking a sizeable minority position in the bank
- the share consolidation exercise, which distorts the share price

The share price is based on such things as future income streams discounted back to current values, the potential for capital growth, along with a bit of hope value (hope that it might merge / be taken over, or make an important acquisition for example).

The Bank is facing some serious challenges, that have influenced and will continue to influence it's share price significantly over the next couple of years:

- Brexit and it's sizeable exposure to the UK
- It's need to radically upgrade it's IT systems
- It's need to restructure, to include cost cutting, branch closures and redirecting business online
- Industry threats (dig out Porter's Five Forces if you want to give this one some consideration

)

...no doubt I'm forgetting other important things here (and I'm also assuming the level of revenue and profits in Ireland don't drop), but that should give you some idea of what I'm getting at.

I'd be looking at comparisons with how other Banks of similar size in Ireland, and across the EU are doing. I'd be looking at things like their Dividend Yield if they pay dividends, their cost to income ratios, or their share price growth year on year (keeping in mind their dividend policy) etc.

kenyard · 07-06-2018 9:58pm

Pussyhands wrote: »

How come the price hasn't recovered majorly since the crash?

Looking at the full graph of it's lifetime, the line has been a bottom flat one since 2010/11.

Why would it? Their valuation was reasonably fair last i looked.
Their forward outlook is probably fairly uncertain. Irish banks will have 20 more years of tracker mortgages. A portion owned by the govt. Still fairly strict regulation. And boi is way behind aib and others on the tech front (nfc phone payments etc)
Also any actual profitd they make will be paid as a dividend so its not like the company value will increase massively since profits go to the investor.
The only thing the could benefit from is a merger/buyout imo for a share price jump.
If i was signing up to a bank and did a review of options it wouldnt be them.
The share price before the crash was just stupidly over inflated.

Positives? Probable rate hikes coming, Lending is booming in ireland, buyout possible. I can see them paying a decent dividend in the coming years.

Negatives? Above listed + italy teetering on brink of bankruptcy. Also spain, greece.

garrettod · 08-06-2018 3:02pm

kenyard wrote: »

....I can see them paying a decent dividend in the coming years..

Just for fun, what are you thinking in terms of Div Yield ?

Personally, I don't think it's going to be very high - they need to put a lot of dosh into IT for example, so I only see them paying out 30%-40% of after tax earnings by way of dividend. I expect reasonable growth in earnings for the next few years, but don't anticipate anything more than that, so all in all, I'd be surprised if the Yield is more than 2.50% - 3.00% pa in the next 5 years.

If someone is looking for high Dividend Yields, then I'd not be looking at the Irish Banks for the next few years. Banks in other parts of the EU will be more suitable. Lloyds in the UK for example are paying circa 6% pa, but I acknowledge that there's a currency risk to consider there (and they are heavily exposed to the UK economy).

Gatoh · 11-06-2018 7:11am

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/time-to-sell-more-bank-shares-hayes-36996330.html

Finally some positive news

garrettod · 11-06-2018 3:03pm

Gatoh wrote: »

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/time-to-sell-more-bank-shares-hayes-36996330.html

Finally some positive news

Hi,

Why do you think that's good news exactly ?

From my read of that article, it's only a Fine Gael MEP calling for a change in the agreement between FF and FG, to permit the government sell more shares (which could be a difficult one for FG to get agreement on, given FF won't want to give FG additional spending power etc.)

We need to keep clear in our heads the price that the government actually paid for both banks and what remains due to us. In the case of BoI, I think it would be appropriate to divest of the final shares held by the state (and also think, it might result in a small net positive return for the country). However, for AIB, there is no way in hell we should be divesting at this stage, as if we do, we only crystalise a loss of €3bn plus on the overall amount that Ireland put in, to save the Bank !

garrettod · 14-06-2018 11:02am

Recent news was not entirely unexpected....

IT costs going to be more than initially anticipated
More cost cutting on the way

I've mixed views about their ambition to see circa 33% growth from the UK market. On the one hand, the Bank has a strong base there, and with legislation, language etc. it looks like an obvious place to push for growth. However, on the other hand, with risks associated with Brexit (regulation, recession etc.) I'd have concerns as to what the UK can deliver for BoI in the next few years - unless it can buy a small business at a decent price and perhaps get some synergy from the transaction ?

If there was any sort of reasonable channel available to the Bank to help them grow a business in one of the Western European (EU member) countries, I'd far rather see them trying to make inroads there tbh. A small business in the likes of Holland, Luxemburg, Brussels, Germany etc. would probably offer far more stability over the next few years.

Gatoh · 14-06-2018 4:01pm

€7 - limp mode had kicked in again.
:mad: A dog share..

drunkmonkey · 14-06-2018 7:20pm

Gatoh wrote: »

€7 - limp mode had kicked in again.
:mad: dog share..

Only going one direction until November, think people will see Pascal's pump and dump for a what it is, he's not recommending sell the government's stake if he thought it was going to the moon shortly, he wants to cash out beofe it tanks.

littlevillage · 15-06-2018 3:57pm

crikey, bet they wished they didn't bother with the costly Customer communication meetings. SP -7% down since Tuesday.

The summarized version is ...we are betting the house on another Irish property market boom .....at €6.70 it might be a buy, but anything north of €7.50 .. I;ll be taking a profit.

Shauny2010 · 27-06-2018 1:28pm

London property market (aka Giant Motherfooker of a bubble) is looking like its heading crash territory now. How badly are Bank of Ireland exposed to this. I know they had massive lending into london a fews years back, but have they kept the lending in check since then??

drunkmonkey · 29-06-2018 11:02pm

I understood any real boost for BOI was going to come from the UK as over 40% of their balance sheet is tied up there, the more Brexit rumbles on the more risky this share looks, the government should sell every last share now before this completely tanks.
I still think the UK government will collapse and a second vote held. It's a complete mess.

Shauny2010 · 30-06-2018 6:39pm

True enough Brexit is weighing on this stock and until this gets resolved the SP will struggle. The big worry is the German bank, fook sake we're years beyond the property collapse and they still haven't got their sh1t togather.
BOI has risk but also some reward if things get sorted with Brexit.

Heiser · 26-07-2018 11:57pm

Nice rise over the last few days

Gatoh · 27-07-2018 5:29am

But still performing poorly.. As Littlevillage mentioned, once bouncing anything north of €7.50 I'm selling and out and never again. Dog share

Gatoh · 01-08-2018 4:36pm

Sold today all my remaining BOI shares! I'M FINALLY FREEE!

Good luck to everyone who's still holding them ... me.. never ever again!

( smiles, inhales deeply and start to walk towards to the sunset ... )

scheister · 02-08-2018 8:37am

Gatoh wrote: »

Sold today all my remaining BOI shares! I'M FINALLY FREEE!

Good luck to everyone who's still holding them ... me.. never ever again!

( smiles, inhales deeply and start to walk towards to the sunset ... )

Lucky u €7.86 is my break even point once i get that im gone

Bank of Ireland shares

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