FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2019 / 2020 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST

nacho libre · 01-03-2020 1:51pm

GFS in the last run i looked at was going for it, the ECM had other ideas, but i think the conveyor belt of deep low pressure systems are going to run out of steam; so maybe it will be a case of it being unsettled at times, but not near as bad as we have seen this month.

Gonzo · 01-03-2020 7:29pm

I've been away for the past day and just had a look at the GFS and the lovely warm trend that has been building over the past week looks to be more or less gone. The Atlantic domination looks like continuing right into the middle of March and the possibility of cold and wintry conditions as well, a possible mixture of cold zonal and some brief northerly action as we get closer to saint Patrick's Day.

Oscar Bravo · 01-03-2020 7:34pm

Gonzo wrote: »

I've been away for the past day and just had a look at the GFS and the lovely warm trend that has been building over the past week looks to be more or less gone. The Atlantic domination looks like continuing right into the middle of March and the possibility of cold and wintry conditions as well, a possible mixture of cold zonal and some brief northerly action as we get closer to saint Patrick's Day.

Was just looking at that. Cold NW'ly all the way

Gonzo · 01-03-2020 7:36pm

Oscar Bravo wrote: »

Was just looking at that. Cold NW'ly all the way

I'm very dissapointed to see this big change. High pressure with some warmth really was becoming a possibility and it's something we all need.

The GFS also shows more possible storm potential as well as rather cool to cold conditions, not something I want to see in March.

A cool or a cold March could be on the table with the PV weakening and cold leaking into Europe at times.

Donegal Storm · 01-03-2020 8:12pm

Yep, the calm, dry, mild forecast for the second week of March has now been replaced with this :rolleyes:

pad199207 · 01-03-2020 8:14pm

Gonzo wrote: »

I'm very dissapointed to see this big change. High pressure with some warmth really was becoming a possibility and it's something we all need.

The GFS also shows more possible storm potential as well as rather cool to cold conditions, not something I want to see in March.

A cool or a cold March could be on the table with the PV weakening and cold leaking into Europe at times.

It’s so depressing

mahoney_j · 01-03-2020 8:20pm

Cool tge jets folks lots of chopping and changing ,those charts are a week away

pauldry · 01-03-2020 8:40pm

Looks like March will be a cool first half but not as wet as February which is impossible

Probably a lot of cold showery days but whereas February averaged nearly 10mm of rain per day Id say March will be 5mm per day

Logan Roy · 01-03-2020 9:00pm

Gonzo wrote: »

I'm very dissapointed to see this big change. High pressure with some warmth really was becoming a possibility and it's something we all need.

The GFS also shows more possible storm potential as well as rather cool to cold conditions, not something I want to see in March.

A cool or a cold March could be on the table with the PV weakening and cold leaking into Europe at times.

At least the days are getting much longer and theres a bit of warmth in the sun again, its not all doom and gloom.....

pad199207 · 01-03-2020 9:02pm

pauldry wrote: »

Looks like March will be a cool first half but not as wet as February which is impossible

Probably a lot of cold showery days but whereas February averaged nearly 10mm of rain per day Id say March will be 5mm per day

So the way it is, it will be raining every day anyways for March

zom · 02-03-2020 11:05am

Just found news on Netherlands - https://nltimes.nl/2020/02/27/wettest-february-ever-nearly-warmest-record

https://nltimes.nl/2020/02/27/wettest-february-ever-nearly-warmest-record

Naggdefy · 02-03-2020 11:50am

Logan Roy wrote: »

At least the days are getting much longer and theres a bit of warmth in the sun again, its not all doom and gloom.....

The nights are getting warmer, it won't be long
Won't be long till the summer comes
Now that the boys are here again...

seamus · 05-03-2020 10:24am

Charts seem to be calling for a short cold snap towards the end of next week, 10/11th, carrying on past Paddy's Day.

Seems to be general agreement that temps will drop, but the extent of the drop and the length of it is up in the air.

Gonzo · 05-03-2020 7:46pm

next weeks possible cold snap doesn't look much different than the ones over the past few weeks, a cold zonal flow which would result in mostly cold rain showers, it's getting to be a bit of a stretch to expect wintry showers on low ground from a westerly towards mid March.

Harry Palmr · 05-03-2020 7:53pm

Another winter without significant frost or snow events. Obviously March is of many weathers but the snowmageddon crowd can put the shovels back in the shed for another 10 months at least.

Ckit1 · 05-03-2020 8:43pm

Harry Palmr wrote: »

Another winter without significant frost or snow events. Obviously March is of many weathers but the snowmageddon crowd can put the shovels back in the shed for another 10 months at least.

We live in Snhope!... March '18

Meteorite58 · 15-03-2020 12:17pm

Weather looks like quietening down considerably compared to the recent and alomost endless Atlantic conveyor belt of continuous LP's and windy weather. A lot less windy weather coming up, less rain in general but there is signs around next weekend of possibly still having slow moving weather fronts to contend with and could still have a pool of cold air over us leading to some wintry precipitation around Fri / early Sat but then signs for later next weekend of HP building over Europe acting as blocking out Atlantic weather and drawing up milder SE'lys early the following week with low to mid teens possible heralding in a burst of spring growth hopefully. Higher pressure upcoming more evident then of late but often on the edge of it so hopefully inversion layers giving rise to stubborn blanket cloud wont be a dominating factor at least not for all of us. Signs of Spring taking hold hopefully. GFS more promising than the ECM and looking a lot milder out into FI then of late . UKMO also has a better position for HP over us next weekend so hopefully they will win out.

nacho libre · 15-03-2020 12:49pm

It is going to settle down,alright, but its not certain at all if we will get proper spring like conditions to last, or whether we end up with something a bit colder as we go towards the end of the month. Which way will the high go thats the question to be resolved.

MJohnston · 15-03-2020 1:44pm

It’d be just perfect if the weather turned settled and calm just as some real lockdown got announced

Meteorite58 · 16-03-2020 12:53am

UKMO showing more influence from Hp than the ECM for the weekend. Initially on the cool side.

qg9EO8E.png?1

[Imgur](https://i.imgur.com/4K66svA.png)

Harry Palmr · 16-03-2020 12:57am

We need some good news and to get out of the nut house so let's hope this drops anchor

Meteorite58 · 17-03-2020 12:34pm

Looking much better from the ECM. Trending good settled mild weather next week, probably still have cool nights but charts showing possibly getting up to the mid teens. GFS showing a quicker breakdown. If ever there was a time that we need some good weather........here's hoping.

Meteorite58 · 19-03-2020 8:25am

Models showing less Hp for next week. Transient ridges and cols, some weather fronts( next Tues looks the wettest day for most) and after a bit milder start of the week looking like being on the cool side after that. Still more settled than what has passed the last couple of months, some rain at times but much less than previous months. Highest totals along Atlantic coastal counties but nothing of note at this stage.

Gonzo · 20-03-2020 6:16pm

long range going for colder than average, particularly into April with easterly winds, northern blocking and possible hints of retrogression of high pressures to Greenland. What a waste as anything unsettled would mostly be cold rain at this stage. On the plus side we may well end up dryer than it has been over the past half year.

nacho libre · 20-03-2020 8:36pm

Gonzo wrote: »

long range going for colder than average, particularly into April with easterly winds, northern blocking and possible hints of retrogression of high pressures to Greenland. What a waste as anything unsettled would mostly be cold rain at this stage. On the plus side we may well end up dryer than it has been over the past half year.

I had a feeling it might go this way after the monster polar vortex eventually weakened. I just hope this pattern change does not prove to be as stubborn as the one we just had, or else there could be a lot of vexed people as we head towards summer

Dickie10 · 20-03-2020 10:49pm

would northerly blocking mean dry weather?

MJohnston · 21-03-2020 12:03am

nacho libre wrote: »

I had a feeling it might go this way after the monster polar vortex eventually weakened. I just hope this pattern change does not prove to be as stubborn as the one we just had, or else there could be a lot of vexed people as we head towards summer

Buddy, have you watched the news? There’s going to be a lot of vexed people as we head towards the summer no matter the weather.

sparrowcar · 21-03-2020 12:36am

Jesus I'd take the bickering in a snow/wind event thread anyday over what's going on at the moment....

sryanbruen · 21-03-2020 1:00am

Dickie10 wrote: »

would northerly blocking mean dry weather?

Depends on where the blocking sits exactly. If it's over top of Greenland and there is a corresponding area of low pressure underneath, which there usually is, it will tend to cross Ireland resulting in cold and wet conditions. This is how our worst summers like 2012 come afoot and even as recent as months like June 2019.

Sometimes though the blocking is not too far north and resides either over Scotland or Scandinavia ushering in an easterly wind. In this scenario, it tends to be dry for extensive periods unless a severe cold airmass comes in from the east and results in lake-effect type snow, particularly in eastern counties. Of course, that's a highly unlikely scenario at this time of year. At times though, fronts from the south or southwest could attack the south and west which happened today and brought cloud to south. Spring is a transitional season and airmasses coming from the east depend on how the continent is faring at the time as well as the exact wind direction like a northeasterly will normally be colder than a direct easterly for example. Easterlies in May will be warmer than easterlies in March.

Northern blocking in winter will tend to mean dry conditions due to it allowing colder airmasses to reach Ireland and cold air holding less moisture. However, northern blocking in summer is usually not a good sign if you want warm and dry conditions. Other seasons like spring and autumn tend to have mixed signals. For the moment, this particular high latitude anticyclone that is being modeled looks of the dry variety.

Mortelaro · 21-03-2020 11:20am

The angle of attack is crucial though,I'd expect low pressures to stay south of Ireland more hitting SW GB and southern England
All depends on how far south jet stream goes
Stronger the blocking the better as that would mean more southerly routes for low pressures avoiding the high if you follow?

Terrible scenario is a kink in the jet stream that drives fronts up from south
That's possible too

nacho libre · 21-03-2020 12:02pm

MJohnston wrote: »

Buddy, have you watched the news? There’s going to be a lot of vexed people as we head towards the summer no matter the weather.

Buddy?

I meant on top of everything else it will add to the sense of frustation people will feel if we have a washout summer.

Irish Steve · 21-03-2020 8:13pm

brutal honesty, right now, a few days of seriously cold wet weather might be just what's needed to get a lot of (ignorant) people home and indoors doing what they are supposed to be doing instead of ignoring the serious advice they're being given regarding social separation.

JCX BXC · 21-03-2020 8:51pm

Irish Steve wrote: »

brutal honesty, right now, a few days of seriously cold wet weather might be just what's needed to get a lot of (ignorant) people home and indoors doing what they are supposed to be doing instead of ignoring the serious advice they're being given regarding social separation.

Yup, I'm of the same thought.

nacho libre · 21-03-2020 10:30pm

Irish Steve wrote: »

brutal honesty, right now, a few days of seriously cold wet weather might be just what's needed to get a lot of (ignorant) people home and indoors doing what they are supposed to be doing instead of ignoring the serious advice they're being given regarding social separation.

If the GEM were to be believed you might get your wish. It looks cold on the Latest ECM too, but not as extreme. The GFS 12z has a pleasant end to it in fi- 14-15 c across Ireland

Meteorite58 · 22-03-2020 8:32pm

Now lads if ye wait long enough ye might get your cold NE'ly and E'ly :pac:

Only thing it's in late March / early April :mad:

GFS quite similar. A few convective showers coming in off the Irish Sea perhaps, giving hail and graupel showers maybe if this set up happened. Very low mid level temperatures but pressure quite high on the charts . Could give rise to some thunderstorm activity maybe. Probably good bright sunshine with sharp frosts at night. Interesting, will see if it holds. Currently looking much cooler than average.

nacho libre · 22-03-2020 10:58pm

7FD6E278-655E-47D7-90C6-F8C79AE2CFB1.png.acc9ef00c782a17d3090b38ff7547390.png

So it looks like the GEM did indeed lead the way with this, with other models now backing it. If this does come to pass, while it might not be what many want to see, one positive could be that it discourages those who go out, but can't be bothered to abide by the safe distancing guidelines, from doing so

Birdnuts · 23-03-2020 1:34am

Grim stuff - looks like re-run of 2018 but a month later!!

pauldry · 23-03-2020 1:08pm

Birdnuts wrote: »

Grim stuff - looks like re-run of 2018 but a month later!!

What a grim year. Can we delete 2020 from the calendar

January and February floods
March Non weather related problems

Now Fantasy Island pulling loads of cold over us and no aeroplane pollution to warm it up!

Gonzo · 23-03-2020 1:26pm

pauldry wrote: »

What a grim year. Can we delete 2020 from the calendar

January and February floods
March Non weather related problems

Now Fantasy Island pulling loads of cold over us and no aeroplane pollution to warm it up!

I think just about everyone will want to erase 2020 from memory. This has been the most unpleasant few weeks since I was born in terms of everything and not just the weather. Sadly we are still only in the early stages.

Had 2 summer holidays booked to Spain, 1 end of May and another mid July, I doubt i'll be going on them now. I doubt anyone will be going abroad for the rest of the year.

Mortelaro · 23-03-2020 2:22pm

Gonzo wrote: »

Had 2 summer holidays booked to Spain, 1 end of May and another mid July, I doubt i'll be going on them now. I doubt anyone will be going abroad for the rest of the year.

I wouldn't despair
Let's see how this plans out and try again for September
Mid July probably wont be possible
No one knows
Contrary to most people, I'd take heart in the unknown because it means you might or you might not
Regardless there are bigger much bigger issues like looking after our health in the meantime

nacho libre · 23-03-2020 3:22pm

pauldry wrote: »

What a grim year. Can we delete 2020 from the calendar

January and February floods
March Non weather related problems

!

Grim it is, but any day above ground is a good one, so this crisis will pass for the majority of us and holidays can be rebooked at later dates, unfortunately some won't be able to see the back of 2020 and enjoy better times.

sryanbruen · 23-03-2020 4:04pm

Latest ECM is predicting a huge anticyclone to reside to our northwest on Sunday next with air pressure in excess of 1050hPa. Our March record on this island for comparison is 1047.1hPa all the way back in March 1900 so this is potentially record breaking for the North Atlantic.

Looking at the evolution of the pattern through the week, a low attempts to progress eastwards through the North Atlantic mid-week but is stopped by an area of high pressure that also makes its way eastwards from North America and the high is inflated by a southerly airstream coming up the western side of Greenland. At the same time, that low prior mentioned becomes an undercut around the Azores and the NAO starts to go in its negative phase.

UK Met Office have it peaking at 1054hPa on their latest fax with 1045hPa isobar well to the south of Ireland on Saturday.

What does this mean? To put it very simply, just an intense anticyclone setting up shop in the North Atlantic close to Ireland and things like this are solely for the interest of the weather enthusiast. For our actual weather, as others have posted, northerly to northeasterly winds will occur on the eastern side of this high over Ireland and it will be colder than average as a result. However, it should be mainly dry in nature. Wintry showers will depend on if we get a ridge extension from the high to our northwest or not and how cold it will get. Right now, it doesn't look that conducive with pressure relatively high in nature and Ireland just about on the periphery of the worst of the cold airmass. Mind you, chilly enough!

After this, models have been playing with a Scandinavian High developing and bringing in easterly after easterly during early April. The latest tends to favour high pressure sticking around Ireland for the foreseeable future but never really warming up in the process. In light winds and the spring sun though, it wouldn't feel too bad. Nights would be cold however.

Kermit.de.frog · 23-03-2020 4:32pm

Kermit.de.frog · 23-03-2020 5:45pm

Nippy for the time of year

dave1982 · 23-03-2020 9:10pm

https://vm.tiktok.com/s9tbct/

Sorry

Dickie10 · 23-03-2020 10:37pm

will that be dry cold east wind?

Supercell · 24-03-2020 8:28am

Snow on Monday for the east?, Kermit too busy with the COVID forum to start a thread?! - https://www.severe-weather.eu/mcd/arctic-outbreak-western-europe-next-weekend-mk/

snow_prob_20200323_06_174.jpg-nggid0516644-ngg0dyn-900x600x100-00f0w010c010r110f110r010t010.jpg

snow_prob_20200323_06_174.jpg-nggid0516644-ngg0dyn-900x600x100-00f0w010c010r110f110r010t010.jpg

DOCARCH · 24-03-2020 8:58am

Supercell wrote: »

Snow on Monday for the east?, Kermit too busy with the COVID forum to start a thread?!

That will be socially distancing!

pauldry · 24-03-2020 11:30am

Snow would be great. It would lock down the country anyhow so we could jump out our windows into bunches of deep snow like Emma and eat bread instead of Toilet Paper.

TTLF · 24-03-2020 1:03pm

too bad its late march so it wont stick very long lol

FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2019 / 2020 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

Comments

FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2019 / 2020 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST