Cold Spell Prospects and Discussion (January + Early Feb 2012)

WolfeIRE · 09-01-2012 5:39pm

Latest GFS more or less keeps the possibility of an easterly setup for the UK and Ireland alive. Some model consistency now entering the frey. It's more or less as you were after the 06z run. It is very exciting, if you enjoy cold weather, to see the potential for an easterly hitting us at this time of year, generally the coldest part of the season.

Models will probably do a fair bit of chopping and changing in the meantime while being tested over a weakening PV, negative AO, flatlining NAO. Still a day or two away from finding out of the Siberian Army will stave off the fight being put up by the Jetstream/Atlantic. At the moment, a colder zonal setup is slightly favoured. This will bring average or slightly below average temps as opposed to the more sustained cold brought by an easterly or northeasterly.

Still, we are heading in the right direction and the current model runs offer the best potential for cold weather this winter to date.

Situation next Saturday

Situation on Wed 18. Easterly march continues westward. Note this setup will change in the meantime for better or worse. It is way out in FI but it's nice to see it being considered by the GFS
6034073

screamer · 09-01-2012 5:48pm

Joe Public wrote: »

Just wondering, what were the signs last October that made you confident of the following "Winter"?

I'm always curious about nature, the plants and animals and if they really can give us a view into the future weather.
Granted that us humans think we have far superior intelligence than the "lower species" but we are still discovering how the natural world can look after itself without our help.

I also think nature can teach us a lot about weather. I posted before about the badgers that visit my garden just before the snow falls, for the last 3 years I've seen them, and they've not been wrong. I haven't seen them this year, and if I do, I will know what's coming, we humans have lost our natural instinct for such things.

oterra · 09-01-2012 5:56pm

screamer wrote: »

I also think nature can teach us a lot about weather. I posted before about the badgers that visit my garden just before the snow falls, for the last 3 years I've seen them, and they've not been wrong. I haven't seen them this year, and if I do, I will know what's coming, we humans have lost our natural instinct for such things.

I'd also like to point out that my Milkman ALWAYS delivers milk the morning before it snows without fail. Its incredible really!

munsterlegend · 09-01-2012 5:58pm

oterra wrote: »

I'd also like to point out that my Milkman ALWAYS delivers milk the morning before it snows without fail. Its incredible really!

the real test of the milkman though is if he can deliver it the morning after the snow..

oterra · 09-01-2012 6:01pm

munsterlegend wrote: »

the real test of the milkman though is if he can deliver it the morning after the snow..

This is where he struggles, but those snow tires on a milk float will get you anywhere!

darkman2 · 09-01-2012 6:06pm

The GFS control run might be stunning post 168hrs

maquiladora · 09-01-2012 6:18pm

darkman2 wrote: »

The GFS control run might be stunning post 168hrs

Yep but not until about 100 hours later.

264 onwards is magic FI.

Harps · 09-01-2012 6:43pm

The operational run is a big outlier in giving high pressure over us so I wouldn't give it much attention after the 15th

J6P · 09-01-2012 6:48pm

A few nice ensembles this evening

maquiladora · 09-01-2012 7:38pm

Poor 12Z ECM out to 168 anyway.

Bishop_Donal · 09-01-2012 7:49pm

oterra wrote: »

I'd also like to point out that my Milkman ALWAYS delivers milk the morning before it snows without fail. Its incredible really!

Interesting observation. I've often heard it said you should keep an eye on the milkman!!

screamer · 09-01-2012 7:53pm

oterra wrote: »

I'd also like to point out that my Milkman ALWAYS delivers milk the morning before it snows without fail. Its incredible really!

OMG, loike really?

Wild Bill · 09-01-2012 9:21pm

Forget those models, charts and graphs.

I can now definitively state that on Friday 20th January and easterly blizzard will cover Ireland NE of a line from Arklow to Galway.

It will persist for 36 hours and dump 44cm of snow near the east coast and on high ground with falls in excess of 20cm even in western coastal areas north of Galway Bay.

It will be followed by several days of sub-zero temperatures and initially, streamer snow along the east coast.

There will follow several more days more of clear anticyclonic weather which will bring the first ever recorded -20C to Ireland on the morning of Friday 28th at Ballyhaise in County Cavan.

After the 30th there is a risk the cold spell will break down but a 50% chance that several days of heavy snow will be followed by a prolonged period of northerly to easterly winds - at least till mid-February.

novarock · 09-01-2012 9:24pm

Wild Bill wrote: »

Forget those models, charts and graphs.

I can now definitively state that on Friday 20th January and easterly blizzard will cover Ireland NE of a line from Arklow to Galway.

It will persist for 36 hours and dump 44cm of snow near the east coast and on high ground with falls in excess of 20cm even in western coastal areas north of Galway Bay.

It will be followed by several days of sub-zero temperatures and initially, streamer snow along the east coast.

There will follow several more days more of clear anticyclonic weather which will bring the first ever recorded -20C to Ireland on the morning of Friday 28th at Ballyhaise in County Cavan.

After the 30th there is a risk the cold spell will break down but a 50% chance that several days of heavy snow will be followed by a prolonged period of northerly to easterly winds - at least till mid-February.

Sud-zero - like zero but extra soapy.

eskimocat · 09-01-2012 9:29pm

Wild Bill wrote: »

Forget those models, charts and graphs.

I can now definitively state that on Friday 20th January and easterly blizzard will cover Ireland NE of a line from Arklow to Galway.

It will persist for 36 hours and dump 44cm of snow near the east coast and on high ground with falls in excess of 20cm even in western coastal areas north of Galway Bay.

It will be followed by several days of sub-zero temperatures and initially, streamer snow along the east coast.

There will follow several more days more of clear anticyclonic weather which will bring the first ever recorded -20C to Ireland on the morning of Friday 28th at Ballyhaise in County Cavan.

After the 30th there is a risk the cold spell will break down but a 50% chance that several days of heavy snow will be followed by a prolonged period of northerly to easterly winds - at least till mid-February.

Wild Bill, If this comes true I will be the first in line congratulate you... on the other hand if it doesn't I suggest you had better hire that snow machine mentioned on some thread... cause I ain't gonna be happy.... and when I aint happy.... well, lets just leave it at that.... for now....;)

Lucreto · 09-01-2012 9:29pm

Wild Bill wrote: »

Forget those models, charts and graphs.

I can now definitively state that on Friday 20th January and easterly blizzard will cover Ireland NE of a line from Arklow to Galway.

It will persist for 36 hours and dump 44cm of snow near the east coast and on high ground with falls in excess of 20cm even in western coastal areas north of Galway Bay.

It will be followed by several days of sub-zero temperatures and initially, streamer snow along the east coast.

There will follow several more days more of clear anticyclonic weather which will bring the first ever recorded -20C to Ireland on the morning of Friday 28th at Ballyhaise in County Cavan.

After the 30th there is a risk the cold spell will break down but a 50% chance that several days of heavy snow will be followed by a prolonged period of northerly to easterly winds - at least till mid-February.

I hope so. If is lasts a week or two I will be happy. I would love to see some of that Alaskan snow from the other thread and compare it to how we would handle it.

Bishop_Donal · 09-01-2012 9:38pm

Wild Bill wrote: »

Forget those models, charts and graphs.

I can now definitively state that on Friday 20th January and easterly blizzard will cover Ireland NE of a line from Arklow to Galway.

It will persist for 36 hours and dump 44cm of snow near the east coast and on high ground with falls in excess of 20cm even in western coastal areas north of Galway Bay.

It will be followed by several days of sub-zero temperatures and initially, streamer snow along the east coast.

There will follow several more days more of clear anticyclonic weather which will bring the first ever recorded -20C to Ireland on the morning of Friday 28th at Ballyhaise in County Cavan.

After the 30th there is a risk the cold spell will break down but a 50% chance that several days of heavy snow will be followed by a prolonged period of northerly to easterly winds - at least till mid-February.

I think Ballyhaise might hit -20.5C

davidsr20 · 09-01-2012 9:42pm

Wild Bill wrote: »

Forget those models, charts and graphs.

I can now definitively state that on Friday 20th January and easterly blizzard will cover Ireland NE of a line from Arklow to Galway.

It will persist for 36 hours and dump 44cm of snow near the east coast and on high ground with falls in excess of 20cm even in western coastal areas north of Galway Bay.

It will be followed by several days of sub-zero temperatures and initially, streamer snow along the east coast.

There will follow several more days more of clear anticyclonic weather which will bring the first ever recorded -20C to Ireland on the morning of Friday 28th at Ballyhaise in County Cavan.

After the 30th there is a risk the cold spell will break down but a 50% chance that several days of heavy snow will be followed by a prolonged period of northerly to easterly winds - at least till mid-February.

I presume this is a piss take ;(

friendlylady · 09-01-2012 9:42pm

Wild Bill wrote: »

Forget those models, charts and graphs.

I can now definitively state that on Friday 20th January and easterly blizzard will cover Ireland NE of a line from Arklow to Galway.

It will persist for 36 hours and dump 44cm of snow near the east coast and on high ground with falls in excess of 20cm even in western coastal areas north of Galway Bay.

It will be followed by several days of sub-zero temperatures and initially, streamer snow along the east coast.

There will follow several more days more of clear anticyclonic weather which will bring the first ever recorded -20C to Ireland on the morning of Friday 28th at Ballyhaise in County Cavan.

After the 30th there is a risk the cold spell will break down but a 50% chance that several days of heavy snow will be followed by a prolonged period of northerly to easterly winds - at least till mid-February.

Now Bill tell me is it possible to reveal your sources for this weather forecast? Or would you have to kill me :eek:. I find this really interesting and you have been very precise, so we shall wait and see, no offense but I hope you're wrong (I hate the snow). But as I say I'd like to know where you got this info

John.Icy · 09-01-2012 9:54pm

That latest update by Brian Gaze is poor form IMO. I remember at the start of November he called for cold, similar starting time to last year, and pulled out about a week later when charts went dire. Ever since, he's been preaching about how correct he's been, as if he had never predicted cold. A good forecaster should always man up, and admit he got it wrong!

Wild Bill · 09-01-2012 9:58pm

John.Icy wrote: »

A good forecaster should always man up, and admit he got it wrong!

Agree 100%.

Expect some manning-up from this quarter :cool:

davidsr20 · 09-01-2012 10:06pm

It's looking like all models are coming in poor lately,is this a bad sign?

Wild Bill · 09-01-2012 10:18pm

davidsr20 wrote: »

It's looking like all models are coming in poor lately,is this a bad sign?

Well...it's not a good sign.....

pistolpetes11 · 09-01-2012 10:26pm

davidsr20 wrote: »

It's looking like all models are coming in poor lately,is this a bad sign?

Which models have being giving poor runs ?

Tom Cruises Left Nut · 09-01-2012 10:30pm

18z time

After Henry scoring a stellar run is on the cards !!

:pac:

Deep Easterly · 09-01-2012 10:31pm

maquiladora wrote: »

Poor 12Z ECM out to 168 anyway.

And not particularly encouraging thereafter.

850 hPa temps at 216hrs:

The opposite of an easterly with murk and drizzle. This model really sticking to its guns over the last while.

12z En mean 850 temps at 240hrs:

showing a relative consistency as of late but not to worry, 'tis only one model afterall.

ninebeanrows · 09-01-2012 10:31pm

The first real model rollercoaster of the winter! There was the phantom storm in December mind you.

Tom Cruises Left Nut · 09-01-2012 10:32pm

Weathercheck wrote: »

The first real model rollercoaster of the winter! There was the phantom storm in December mind you.

That was fun but this is better !! :pac:

ninebeanrows · 09-01-2012 10:34pm

Deep Easterly wrote: »

And not particularly encouraging thereafter.

850 hPa temps at 192hrs:

The opposite of an easterly with murk and drizzle. This model really sticking to its guns over the last while.

12z En mean 850 temps at 240hrs:

showing a relative consistency as of late but not to worry, 'tis only one model afterall.

I don't think any model has been consistent! Not least the ECM!

Deep Easterly · 09-01-2012 10:38pm

Weathercheck wrote: »

I don't think any model has been consistent! Not least the ECM!

Ensembles have though, though that doesn't mean anything in itself..

maquiladora · 09-01-2012 10:43pm

Next up, 18Z GFS. Let's see what youve got. :cool:

Wild Bill · 09-01-2012 10:49pm

Look folks - when you get a blocking high in the Bay of Biscay you get prolonged meh.

Well known fact.

I shouldn't have to remind anyone here of the Great Biscay Meh from mid-December 1975 to late January 1976.

jimmy.d · 09-01-2012 10:53pm

maquiladora wrote: »

Next up, 18Z GFS. Let's see what youve got. :cool:

hopefully some good ones

cml387 · 09-01-2012 10:58pm

Wild Bill wrote: »

Look folks - when you get a blocking high in the Bay of Biscay you get prolonged meh.

Well known fact.

I shouldn't have to remind anyone here of the Great Biscay Meh from mid-December 1975 to late January 1976.

Indeed.

Down our way they speak of nothing else.

Sponge Bob · 09-01-2012 11:19pm

Tis the Great Meh of De Bishcay when we mentions it in the Wesht.

Great summer the following year though, the very best of all summers and only 25c a pint for beer when the thirst hit as it did every day without fail.

K_1 · 09-01-2012 11:41pm

FI 18z GFS is beautiful!

Edit: It gets better!

TheMilkyPirate · 09-01-2012 11:43pm

18z is interesting to say the least.

Like a rollercoaster all in one run!

FI is nothing short of amazing. But that's what it is FI.

NIALL D · 09-01-2012 11:48pm

^^
these are more like it , hopefully more of them type charts keep popping up , and show the start of a proper trend which actually comes true........:)

Harps · 09-01-2012 11:49pm

18z sticking with a meridional flow from next weekend and pumps a high right up to Svalbard keeping us with a south westerly. The vortex is all over the place which is promising, still stuck right over Greenland though unfortunately

Plenty of promise later in the run again but it looks like everything after the 14th is still up in the air (pardon the pun) considering the ECMWF runs today

Iancar29 · 09-01-2012 11:50pm

ITS GONNA BE A BUMPY RIDE FOLKS!!!

John.Icy · 09-01-2012 11:52pm

Yeah continuing interest from GFS, could flip and flop a few more times so fingers crossed we get a good outcome. A very nice low to our south on the 18z, if we are to get an easterly at some stage, an undercutting low could be key, due to pesky high pressure constantly looking to nudge itself closer and closer to Ireland from our SW(Of course, if that high wants to aid retrogression and more WAA to create more prominent block to our North, it's more than welcome), which could prevent anything big getting going, but nonetheless, it's great to see a coldish scenario back on a few of the models, after abit of a dodgy day yesterday.

Bring on the 0z!

Lucreto · 10-01-2012 12:01am

K_1 wrote: »

FI 18z GFS is beautiful!

Edit: It gets better!

Do you think I should write up a shopping list to get food in just in case or still too early.

NIALL D · 10-01-2012 12:05am

Lucreto wrote: »

Do you think I should write up a shopping list to get food in just in case or still too early.

plenty of tinned food :eek::D

TheMilkyPirate · 10-01-2012 12:08am

Net weather has gone into meltdown, It's hilarious really it will (probably) be gone tomorrow and they'll all be depressed again!

maquiladora · 10-01-2012 12:09am

baraca wrote: »

Net weather has gone into meltdown, It's hilarious really it will (probably) be gone tomorrow and they'll all be depressed again!

Happens several times every winter. :pac:

Sponge Bob · 10-01-2012 12:11am

maquiladora wrote: »

Happens several times every winter.

No different here

Remember the "Hot Snow" in early November. ??

eskimocat · 10-01-2012 12:11am

NIALL D wrote: »

plenty of tinned food :eek::D

and a snow machine... just in case Will Bill fails to deliver :pac:

TheMilkyPirate · 10-01-2012 12:11am

maquiladora wrote: »

Happens several times every winter. :pac:

I've noticed! :pac:

srocliffe · 10-01-2012 12:15am

maquiladora wrote: »

Happens several times every winter. :pac:

I know it will probably disappear again, but we've been so deprived of anything good, even in Fantasy Island this winter. The end of the 18z GFS is by far the best run we've had all this winter, it's stunning, so let's enjoy it while it lasts .

doccy · 10-01-2012 12:20am

In fairness, we all chuckle knowingly about how these charts will be gone in the morning .. but a pattern is finally starting to emerge .. a pattern in the shape of a rollercoaster .. veeeeery subtle ramp

Cold Spell Prospects and Discussion (January + Early Feb 2012)

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