June 2014 Boards forecast contest

Table of forecasts for June 2014


FORECASTER ___________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN _ MAX RAIN ___ DATE

The Zohan ____________ 20.0 _ 29.0 _ 3.0 _ 075 _ 085 _ 35 Mace Head ___ 7
M.T. Cranium __________ 15.8 _ 29.5 _ 4.0 _ 102 _ 105 _ 50 Dunsany ____ 13
okla _________________ 15.2 _ 25.8 _ 4.8 _ 090 _ 105 _ 27 Belmullet ____ 20
dacogawa _____________14.8 _ 28.2 _ 3.5 _ 110 _ 100 _ 42 Valentia ______6
Tae laidir _____________ 14.4 _ 27.8 _ 3.1 _ 080 _ 108 _ xx Roches Point __ 1
Danno ____ (-10) ______ 14.4 _ 25.4 _ 3.9 _ 130 _ 110 _ 29 Moorepark ____6
kindredspirit __________ 14.2 _ 27.1 _ 3.5 _ 085 _ 110 _ 24 Knock _______ 15
rikand ________________14.2 _ 26.5 _ 4.0 _ 080 _ 120 _ 30 Mullingar ____ 17
lostinashford __________ 14.2 _ 25.3 _ 3.4 _ 095 _ 105 _ 38 Valentia _____ 15
omicron ______________ 14.2 _ 25.0 _ 4.5 _ 110 _ 100 _ 20 Valentia _____ 15
Jpmarn _______________14.2 _ 23.4 _ 2.5 _ 130 _ 090 _ 45 Valentia ______6
Bsal _________________ 14.0 _ 27.7 _ 5.1 _ 110 _ 098 _ 22 Mullingar ____12
waterways ____________ 14.0 _ 25.3 _ 0.8 _ 0 88 _ 124 _ 28 Malin Head ___ 8
200motels_____________ 13.9 _ 27.6 _ 4.9 _ 080 _ 145 _ 48 Valentia _____19

Con Sensus ___________ 13.9 _ 25.8 _ 3.8 _ 102 _ 100 _ 30 Valentia ____ 15

Harps ________________ 13.9 _ 26.1 _ 2.9 _ 110 _ 120 _ 33 Cork ________17
mickger844posts _______ 13.9 _ 25.1 _ 4.8 _ 110 _ 090 _ 22 Valentia _____ 21
Joe Public _____________ 13.9 _ 24.4 _ 3.9 _ 119 _ 099 _ xx Valentia _____ 8
DOCARCH ____________ 13.9 _ 24.2 _ 2.3 _ 110 _ 100 _ 34 Valentia _____ 11
Billcarson _____________ 13.9 _ 23.7 _ 3.8 _ 095 _ 090 _ 26 Belmullet ____15
Johnmac ______________ 13.8 _ 26.4 _ 3.4 _ 106 _ 098 _ 42 Valentia _____ 7
pauldry _______________13.7 _ 24.7 _ 4.1 _ 123 _ 087 _ 39 Cork _______ 30
rameire _______________13.6 _ 25.1 _ 3.0 _ 092 _ 106 _ 22 Malin Head __ 21
traecy1 _______________13.5 _ 26.5 _ 5.5 _ 120 _ 095 _ 25 Cork _______ 14
dasa29 _______________ 13.0 _ 26.0 _ 1.0 _ 110 _ 100 _ 25 Mullingar ___ 15
sunflower3_____________12.9 _ 22.5 _ 5.2 _ 098 _ 091 _ 34 Valentia ____ 22
delw _________________ 12.4 _ 18.0 _ 4.0 _ 120 _ 090 _ 30 Mullingar ___ 10

These are the entries received so far ... I cut omicron a break for entering within an hour of the deadline in the middle of the night ... and for those who missed the bonus question detail about rainfall amount (and showing as xx in the table) you have until the end of the 4th to enter an amount. This is going to count for five of the ten points and will be determined not by your own forecast location and date but by the actual max, so if you already passed the date, well there's just the one case so far, where the max was actually 8.3 mm at Mountdillon, so in any case, enter an amount in the thread (I will check the form too). Sorry about the confusion, the instructions in the form and in post number one were a bit different. Anyway, I'll see if I can rustle up some numbers from the xx group and we'll add on any new entries and adjust consensus.

Looks like the general consensus is not far from average in all regards. If The Zohan reads this, I'm wondering if you're taking the mean temperature as mean daytime, it's actually the average of daytime highs and night-time lows. If you want to revise on that basis, let me know, you're relatively new so it won't affect the annual contest.

Yes the two parts will be scored 5-5 and the date is worth 2 for anyone who gets it "spot on" and 1 for a one day error.

So your amount forecast is in the running at this point. Locations will be scored in some complicated way that will depend on what actually happens, I will try to give some points for close guesses if nobody gets it exactly right. Some sort of secondary points for a good forecast that ends up second or third place will be considered too. I feel partly responsible for Joe and Tae laidir missing the amount portion and I may cut them a break by assuming their amount forecast correlates with their PRC percentage. Or maybe they posted, I have to go back a page to see.

After seven days ...

IMT 12.4 C

PRC 117%

SUN 80%

Somewhat belated report on week 2 (8-14) with adjustments in brackets for first half of June ...

IMT now on 13.6 (13.6) after a rather warm week at 14.7 (and 15th similar)

PRC stayed close to previous mark at 114%, the week was 111% although quite variable, for example Ballyhaise had a lot more than Casement. As the 15th was dry that would leave us at (106). A general dry spell will drop these numbers about five per cent a day (isolated storms would have to hit one of eleven sites and drop a lot there).

SUN has improved a little to 85% after a week close to 90% (somewhat estimated) and this coming spell of partly cloudy weather on average may allow that to increase towards 100% or maybe a bit better given where the six stations are located.

Maybe somebody could look into the current MAX although I expect it to be increased soon anyway, think it's around 23.

My rainfall forecast (13th at Dunsany) would have verified if let's say the weak line of showers were stronger and had lasted to there which it didn't. Oh well.

After four weeks, likely to be very similar to finishing values now ...

IMT 14.4 C

PRC now 82% after a quite normal week at 98%

SUN about the same as last report at 125%, the week similar.

Updated annual scoring table

Rank _ Forecaster ____ J ___ F ___ M __ A ___ M __ J ___ TOTAL

01 _ Con Sensus _____ 64 _ 71 _ 92 _ 83 _ 66 _ 58 __ 434

01 _ rikand __________68 _ 65 _ 84 _ 78 _ 51 _ 69 __ 415
02 _ harps __________ 57 _ 63 _ 71 _ 74 _ 66 _ 72 __ 403
03 _ Bsal ___________ 74 _ 75 _ 73 _ 60 _ 61 _ 34 __ 377
04 _ Tae laidir _______ 46 _ 85 _ 38 _ 63 _ 76 _ 62 __ 370
05 _ omicron ________ 70 _ 56 _ 85 _ 68 _ 41 _ 49 __ 369
06 _ kindredspirit _____67 _ 49 _ 69 _ 68 _ 52 _ 60 __ 365
07 _ jpmarn _________61 _ 45 _ 60 _ 72 _ 74 _ 47 __ 359
08 _ waterways ______ 60 _ 74 _ 70 _ 40 _ 38 _ 75 __ 357
09 _ pauldry _________62 _ 69 _ 50 _ 69 _ 63 _ 40 __ 353
10 _ traecy.1 ________ 63 _ 58 _ 75 _ 54 _ 62 _ 39 __ 351
11 _ John mac _______67 _ 53 _ 61 _ 50 _ 50 _ 60 __ 341
12 _ mickger844posts _ 69 _ 53 _ 56 _ 64 _ 54 _ 41 __ 337
13 _ dasa 29 ________ 61 _ 59 _ 60 _ 40 _ 57 _ 56 __ 333
14 _ DOCARCH ______ 54 _ 47 _ 59 _ 79 _ 38 _ 54 __ 331
15 _ rameire ________ 54 _ 72 _ 51 _ 49 _ 41 _ 56 __ 323
16 _ 200 motels ______50 _ 71 _ 62 _ 51 _ 39 _ 47 __ 320
17 _ Danno _________ 54 _ 58 _ 55 _ 47 _ 51 _ 52 __ 317
18 _ dacogawa ______ 52 _ 53 _ 66 _ 61 _ 32 _ 43 __ 307
19 _ M.T. Cranium ____63 _ 62 _ 58 _ 56 _ 26 _ 31 __ 296
20 _ lostinashford_____--- _ 51 _ 79 _ 45 _ 45 _ 65 __ 285
21 _ okla ___________59 _ --- _ 61 _ 49 _ 59 _ 54 __ 282
22 _ talkabout ______ 59 _ --- _ 73 _ 66 _ 57 _ --- __ 255
23 _ jd _____________60 _ 58 _ 55 _ 75 _ ---_ --- __ 248
24 _ nilhg __________ 60 _ 64 _ 40 _ 72 _ --- _ --- __ 236
25 _ Joe Public ______ 60 _ 58 _ 50 _ 44 _ 10 _ 42 __ 222
26 _ delw __________ 44 _ 31 _ 38 _ 16 _ 34 _ 17 __ 180
27 _ homolumo ______58 _ 59 _ --- _ 46 _ --- _ --- __ 163
28 _ seafields _______ 40 _ --- _ 50 _ 33 _ --- _ --- __ 123
29 _ Robxxx7 _______ --- _ --- _ 72 _ 31 _ 33 _ -- __ 136
30 _ melanoma ______39 _ 65 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ -- __ 104
31 _ yoghurt87 ______ --- _ --- _ 53 _ --- _ 41 _ -- ___ 94
32 _ downwesht _____ --- _ --- _ 64 _ --- _ --- _ -- ___ 64
33 _ The Zohan _____ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ 23 _ 37 ___ 60
34 _ dexter647 ______ --- _ --- _ --- _ 55 _ --- _ -- ___ 55
35 _ octo ___________47 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ -- ___ 47
36 _ rebelcork ______ --- _ --- _ 46 _ --- _ --- _ -- ___ 46
37 _ sunflower3 _____ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ 40 _ -- ___ 40
38 _ billcarson _____ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ 39 ___ 39
39 _ aimsir _________ --- _ --- _ 28 _ --- _ --- _ -- ___ 28

________________________________________________________________

Well, the good news is that our leaders (Rikand and harps) are putting a bit of pressure on Con Sensus and may yet overtake.

As explained in the July thread, I have had to revisit these tables after becoming aware that there was an error in the MAX. I have preserved what was posted on the first of July, either I totally misread something in the Summary or they edited it after I did this work. At the time I was briefly puzzled to see the 26.0 when I recalled somebody posting 27 as a max and that's actually the new value. So it means a re-do for this table and the annual table. I can't even edit the old tables now so here we go again. Sorry for the confusion.


Actual values:

IMT 14.4 C (from 14.36)
MAX 26.0 C at Moore Park now 27.1 at Newport
MIN 1.7 C at Claremorris
PRC 75%
SUN 128%

revised final scoring -- June 2014

FORECASTER _________ IMT MAX MIN PRC SUN BONUS ____ TOTALS

Tae laidir _____________25 _ 13 _ 10*_ 13 _ 06 ___ 6 ________ 73
kindredspirit __________ 23 _ 20 _ 08*_ 12 _ 06 ___ 2 ________ 71
rikand _______________ 23 _ 14 _ 06*_ 13 _ 08 ___ 4 ________ 68
waterways ____________21 _ 02 _ 14*_ 11 _ 10 ___ 6_________64
Harps ________________20 _ 10 _ 13*_ 03 _ 08 ___ 9 ________ 63
200motels_____________20 _ 15 _ 00 __13 _ 07 ___ 3 ________ 58
Johnmac _____________ 19 _ 13 _ 09*_ 05 _ 04 ___ 7 ________ 57
lostinashford __________ 23 _ 02 _ 09*_ 08 _ 05 ___ 7 ________ 54
DOCARCH ____________ 20 _ 00 _ 18*_ 03 _ 04 ___ 7 ________ 52
dacogawa _____________21 _ 09 _ 08*_ 03 _ 04 ___ 7 ________ 52
Jpmarn _______________23 _ 00 _ 15*_ 00 _ 02 ___ 7 ________ 47

Con Sensus ___________ 20 _ 07 _ 07*_ 06 _ 04 ___ 3 ________ 47

bsal _________________ 21 _ 14 _ 00 __03 _ 04 ___ 3 ________ 45
rameire ______________ 17 _ 00 _ 11*_ 09 _ 06 ___ 2 ________ 45
dasa29 _______________11 _ 09 _ 16*_ 03 _ 04 ___ 2 ________ 45
okla _________________ 17 _ 07 _ 01*_ 10 _ 05 ___ 3 ________ 43
Danno ____ (-10) ______ 25 _ 03 _ 07*_ 00 _ 06 __ 10 __ 51-10=41
pauldry _______________18 _ 07 _ 05*_ 00 _ 02 ___ 8 ________ 40
omicron ______________ 23 _ 00 _ 03*_ 03 _ 04 ___ 6 ________ 39
Billcarson _____________20 _ 00 _ 07*_ 08 _ 02 ___ 2 ________ 39
traecy1 _______________16 _ 14 _ 00 __00 _ 03 ___ 5 ________ 38
Joe Public _____________20 _ 00 _ 07*_ 01 _ 04 ___ 6 ________ 38
The Zohan ____________ 00 _ 01 _ 12*_ 15 _ 01 ___ 9 ________ 38
M.T. Cranium __________ 11 _ 00 _ 06*_ 06 _ 05 ___ 3 ________ 31
mickger844posts _______ 20 _ 00 _ 01*_ 03 _ 02 ___ 4 ________ 30
sunflower3_____________10 _ 00 _ 00 __07 _ 03 ___ 7 ________ 27
delw _________________ 05 _ 00 _ 06*_ 00 _ 02 ___ 4 ________ 17

* adjusted scores for minimum progression
_______________________________________________________________

Congrats to Tae laidir, kindredspirit and Rikand for leading the way.

Revised and updated annual scoring to follow.