June 2014 Boards forecast contest

M.T. Cranium

Yes the two parts will be scored 5-5 and the date is worth 2 for anyone who gets it "spot on" and 1 for a one day error.

So your amount forecast is in the running at this point. Locations will be scored in some complicated way that will depend on what actually happens, I will try to give some points for close guesses if nobody gets it exactly right. Some sort of secondary points for a good forecast that ends up second or third place will be considered too. I feel partly responsible for Joe and Tae laidir missing the amount portion and I may cut them a break by assuming their amount forecast correlates with their PRC percentage. Or maybe they posted, I have to go back a page to see.

pauldry

haha confused more now.

for july predict the wind direction on july 24 in mph but at midday and aggregate scoring percentage diminishing revalued towards the x minus.

ok thats simple enough.

enjoy!:rolleyes::p

M.T. Cranium

After seven days ...

IMT 12.4 C

PRC 117%

SUN 80%

Rikand

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

After seven days ...

IMT 12.4 C

PRC 117%

SUN 80%

come on sun! Stupid rain...

M.T. Cranium

Somewhat belated report on week 2 (8-14) with adjustments in brackets for first half of June ...

IMT now on 13.6 (13.6) after a rather warm week at 14.7 (and 15th similar)

PRC stayed close to previous mark at 114%, the week was 111% although quite variable, for example Ballyhaise had a lot more than Casement. As the 15th was dry that would leave us at (106). A general dry spell will drop these numbers about five per cent a day (isolated storms would have to hit one of eleven sites and drop a lot there).

SUN has improved a little to 85% after a week close to 90% (somewhat estimated) and this coming spell of partly cloudy weather on average may allow that to increase towards 100% or maybe a bit better given where the six stations are located.

Maybe somebody could look into the current MAX although I expect it to be increased soon anyway, think it's around 23.

My rainfall forecast (13th at Dunsany) would have verified if let's say the weak line of showers were stronger and had lasted to there which it didn't. Oh well.

Rikand

Warmer week on the way, get that IMT up to 14+!

pauldry

max 23.5c Claremorris

pauldry

pauldry wrote: »

max 23.5c Claremorris

Scratch that at least 25c today and at least 27c tomorrow

pauldry

pauldry wrote: »

max 23.5c Claremorris

Scratch that at least 25c today and at least 27c tomorrow

M.T. Cranium

The third week of June has changed the numbers considerably ...

IMT now at 14.2 C (week was 15.6).

PRC for the week was almost zero (1% thanks to Malin Head) and that drops the monthly average to 76%.

SUN was almost double the normal amount at 199% and that raises the month to around 127%.

Rikand

stays like that, will be grand

M.T. Cranium

Two pieces of administrivia ...

(1) Because of the confusion about the bonus question that was mostly my fault, what I will be doing is to look at amount, location and date and scoring each person on best two of three. So if you missed the amount, at least you have some chance of doing alright. Also, if it turns out to be a toss-up between 6th and 26th with close amounts, then two sets of scores based on that thing we did last May 2013 with the heavy rainfall dates.

(2) July 2014 will open up soon when I have the form in place. But to give you a heads up on the bonus, it will be warmest max on Saturday 5th and a location (closest to one of the five IMT sites). As that will be a bit of a short-range skill question for a change, be sure to enter on time because I will have to limit scores for late entries. The deadline as usual will be overnight 1st-2nd.

pauldry

Sherkin on 6th 34.8mm is far ahead of anything today

can we forget about the min, the max as well and just give everyone 100;)

except consensus give himherit nothing zero zilch!

M.T. Cranium

Well actually there was 25 mm at Moorepark on Thursday 26th, and as yet unknown amounts could fall into a rain gauge somewhere today, but it has to be one of the official ones of course. But I will score on the basis of a primary and secondary maximum to reward reasonably good guesses.

M.T. Cranium

After four weeks, likely to be very similar to finishing values now ...

IMT 14.4 C

PRC now 82% after a quite normal week at 98%

SUN about the same as last report at 125%, the week similar.

M.T. Cranium

Actual values:

IMT 14.4 C (from 14.36)
MAX 26.0 C at Moore Park
MIN 1.7 C at Claremorris
PRC 75%
SUN 128%

Final scoring -- June 2014

FORECASTER _________ IMT MAX MIN PRC SUN BONUS ____ TOTALS

waterways ____________ 21 _ 13 _ 14*_ 11 _ 10 ___ 6________ 75
Harps ________________20 _ 19 _ 13*_ 03 _ 08 ___ 9 ________ 72
rikand _______________ 23 _ 15 _ 06*_ 13 _ 08 ___ 4 ________ 69
lostinashford __________ 23 _ 13 _ 09*_ 08 _ 05 ___ 7 ________ 65
Tae laidir _____________ 25 _ 02 _ 10*_ 13 _ 06 ___ 6 ________ 62
Danno ____ (-10) ______ 25 _ 14 _ 07*_ 00 _ 06 __ 10 __ 62-10=52
kindredspirit __________ 23 _ 09 _ 08*_ 12 _ 06 ___ 2 ________ 60
Johnmac _____________ 19 _ 16 _ 09*_ 05 _ 04 ___ 7 ________ 60

Con Sensus ___________ 20 _ 18 _ 07*_ 06 _ 04 ___ 3 ________ 58

rameire ______________ 17 _ 11 _ 11*_ 09 _ 06 ___ 2 ________ 56
dasa29 _______________11 _ 20 _ 16*_ 03 _ 04 ___ 2 ________ 56
DOCARCH ____________ 20 _ 02 _ 18*_ 03 _ 04 ___ 7 ________ 54
okla _________________ 17 _ 18 _ 01*_ 10 _ 05 ___ 3 ________ 54
omicron ______________ 23 _ 10 _ 03*_ 03 _ 04 ___ 6 ________ 49
Jpmarn _______________23 _ 00 _ 15*_ 00 _ 02 ___ 7 ________ 47
200motels_____________20 _ 04 _ 00 __13 _ 07 ___ 3 ________ 47
dacogawa _____________21 _ 00 _ 08*_ 03 _ 04 ___ 7 ________ 43
Joe Public _____________20 _ 04 _ 07*_ 01 _ 04 ___ 6 ________ 42
mickger844posts _______ 20 _ 11 _ 01*_ 03 _ 02 ___ 4 ________ 41
pauldry _______________18 _ 07 _ 05*_ 00 _ 02 ___ 8 ________ 40
Billcarson _____________20 _ 00 _ 07*_ 08 _ 02 ___ 2 ________ 39
traecy1 _______________16 _ 15 _ 00 __00 _ 03 ___ 5 ________ 39
The Zohan ____________ 00 _ 00 _ 12*_ 15 _ 01 ___ 9 ________ 37
bsal _________________ 21 _ 03 _ 00 __03 _ 04 ___ 3 ________ 34
M.T. Cranium __________ 11 _ 00 _ 06*_ 06 _ 05 ___ 3 ________ 31
sunflower3_____________10 _ 00 _ 00 __07 _ 03 ___ 7 ________ 27
delw _________________ 05 _ 00 _ 06*_ 00 _ 02 ___ 4 ________ 17

* adjusted scores for minimum progression
_______________________________________________________________

Congrats to Waterways, harps and rikand for leading the way.

Will update annual scoring later today.

M.T. Cranium

Updated annual scoring table

Rank _ Forecaster ____ J ___ F ___ M __ A ___ M __ J ___ TOTAL

01 _ Con Sensus _____ 64 _ 71 _ 92 _ 83 _ 66 _ 58 __ 434

01 _ rikand __________68 _ 65 _ 84 _ 78 _ 51 _ 69 __ 415
02 _ harps __________ 57 _ 63 _ 71 _ 74 _ 66 _ 72 __ 403
03 _ Bsal ___________ 74 _ 75 _ 73 _ 60 _ 61 _ 34 __ 377
04 _ Tae laidir _______ 46 _ 85 _ 38 _ 63 _ 76 _ 62 __ 370
05 _ omicron ________ 70 _ 56 _ 85 _ 68 _ 41 _ 49 __ 369
06 _ kindredspirit _____67 _ 49 _ 69 _ 68 _ 52 _ 60 __ 365
07 _ jpmarn _________61 _ 45 _ 60 _ 72 _ 74 _ 47 __ 359
08 _ waterways ______ 60 _ 74 _ 70 _ 40 _ 38 _ 75 __ 357
09 _ pauldry _________62 _ 69 _ 50 _ 69 _ 63 _ 40 __ 353
10 _ traecy.1 ________ 63 _ 58 _ 75 _ 54 _ 62 _ 39 __ 351
11 _ John mac _______67 _ 53 _ 61 _ 50 _ 50 _ 60 __ 341
12 _ mickger844posts _ 69 _ 53 _ 56 _ 64 _ 54 _ 41 __ 337
13 _ dasa 29 ________ 61 _ 59 _ 60 _ 40 _ 57 _ 56 __ 333
14 _ DOCARCH ______ 54 _ 47 _ 59 _ 79 _ 38 _ 54 __ 331
15 _ rameire ________ 54 _ 72 _ 51 _ 49 _ 41 _ 56 __ 323
16 _ 200 motels ______50 _ 71 _ 62 _ 51 _ 39 _ 47 __ 320
17 _ Danno _________ 54 _ 58 _ 55 _ 47 _ 51 _ 52 __ 317
18 _ dacogawa ______ 52 _ 53 _ 66 _ 61 _ 32 _ 43 __ 307
19 _ M.T. Cranium ____63 _ 62 _ 58 _ 56 _ 26 _ 31 __ 296
20 _ lostinashford_____--- _ 51 _ 79 _ 45 _ 45 _ 65 __ 285
21 _ okla ___________59 _ --- _ 61 _ 49 _ 59 _ 54 __ 282
22 _ talkabout ______ 59 _ --- _ 73 _ 66 _ 57 _ --- __ 255
23 _ jd _____________60 _ 58 _ 55 _ 75 _ ---_ --- __ 248
24 _ nilhg __________ 60 _ 64 _ 40 _ 72 _ --- _ --- __ 236
25 _ Joe Public ______ 60 _ 58 _ 50 _ 44 _ 10 _ 42 __ 222
26 _ delw __________ 44 _ 31 _ 38 _ 16 _ 34 _ 17 __ 180
27 _ homolumo ______58 _ 59 _ --- _ 46 _ --- _ --- __ 163
28 _ seafields _______ 40 _ --- _ 50 _ 33 _ --- _ --- __ 123
29 _ Robxxx7 _______ --- _ --- _ 72 _ 31 _ 33 _ -- __ 136
30 _ melanoma ______39 _ 65 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ -- __ 104
31 _ yoghurt87 ______ --- _ --- _ 53 _ --- _ 41 _ -- ___ 94
32 _ downwesht _____ --- _ --- _ 64 _ --- _ --- _ -- ___ 64
33 _ The Zohan _____ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ 23 _ 37 ___ 60
34 _ dexter647 ______ --- _ --- _ --- _ 55 _ --- _ -- ___ 55
35 _ octo ___________47 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ -- ___ 47
36 _ rebelcork ______ --- _ --- _ 46 _ --- _ --- _ -- ___ 46
37 _ sunflower3 _____ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ 40 _ -- ___ 40
38 _ billcarson _____ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ 39 ___ 39
39 _ aimsir _________ --- _ --- _ 28 _ --- _ --- _ -- ___ 28

________________________________________________________________

Well, the good news is that our leaders (Rikand and harps) are putting a bit of pressure on Con Sensus and may yet overtake.

Rikand

we got this harps

M.T. Cranium

As explained in the July thread, I have had to revisit these tables after becoming aware that there was an error in the MAX. I have preserved what was posted on the first of July, either I totally misread something in the Summary or they edited it after I did this work. At the time I was briefly puzzled to see the 26.0 when I recalled somebody posting 27 as a max and that's actually the new value. So it means a re-do for this table and the annual table. I can't even edit the old tables now so here we go again. Sorry for the confusion.


Actual values:

IMT 14.4 C (from 14.36)
MAX 26.0 C at Moore Park now 27.1 at Newport
MIN 1.7 C at Claremorris
PRC 75%
SUN 128%

revised final scoring -- June 2014

FORECASTER _________ IMT MAX MIN PRC SUN BONUS ____ TOTALS

Tae laidir _____________25 _ 13 _ 10*_ 13 _ 06 ___ 6 ________ 73
kindredspirit __________ 23 _ 20 _ 08*_ 12 _ 06 ___ 2 ________ 71
rikand _______________ 23 _ 14 _ 06*_ 13 _ 08 ___ 4 ________ 68
waterways ____________21 _ 02 _ 14*_ 11 _ 10 ___ 6_________64
Harps ________________20 _ 10 _ 13*_ 03 _ 08 ___ 9 ________ 63
200motels_____________20 _ 15 _ 00 __13 _ 07 ___ 3 ________ 58
Johnmac _____________ 19 _ 13 _ 09*_ 05 _ 04 ___ 7 ________ 57
lostinashford __________ 23 _ 02 _ 09*_ 08 _ 05 ___ 7 ________ 54
DOCARCH ____________ 20 _ 00 _ 18*_ 03 _ 04 ___ 7 ________ 52
dacogawa _____________21 _ 09 _ 08*_ 03 _ 04 ___ 7 ________ 52
Jpmarn _______________23 _ 00 _ 15*_ 00 _ 02 ___ 7 ________ 47

Con Sensus ___________ 20 _ 07 _ 07*_ 06 _ 04 ___ 3 ________ 47

bsal _________________ 21 _ 14 _ 00 __03 _ 04 ___ 3 ________ 45
rameire ______________ 17 _ 00 _ 11*_ 09 _ 06 ___ 2 ________ 45
dasa29 _______________11 _ 09 _ 16*_ 03 _ 04 ___ 2 ________ 45
okla _________________ 17 _ 07 _ 01*_ 10 _ 05 ___ 3 ________ 43
Danno ____ (-10) ______ 25 _ 03 _ 07*_ 00 _ 06 __ 10 __ 51-10=41
pauldry _______________18 _ 07 _ 05*_ 00 _ 02 ___ 8 ________ 40
omicron ______________ 23 _ 00 _ 03*_ 03 _ 04 ___ 6 ________ 39
Billcarson _____________20 _ 00 _ 07*_ 08 _ 02 ___ 2 ________ 39
traecy1 _______________16 _ 14 _ 00 __00 _ 03 ___ 5 ________ 38
Joe Public _____________20 _ 00 _ 07*_ 01 _ 04 ___ 6 ________ 38
The Zohan ____________ 00 _ 01 _ 12*_ 15 _ 01 ___ 9 ________ 38
M.T. Cranium __________ 11 _ 00 _ 06*_ 06 _ 05 ___ 3 ________ 31
mickger844posts _______ 20 _ 00 _ 01*_ 03 _ 02 ___ 4 ________ 30
sunflower3_____________10 _ 00 _ 00 __07 _ 03 ___ 7 ________ 27
delw _________________ 05 _ 00 _ 06*_ 00 _ 02 ___ 4 ________ 17

* adjusted scores for minimum progression
_______________________________________________________________

Congrats to Tae laidir, kindredspirit and Rikand for leading the way.

Revised and updated annual scoring to follow.

M.T. Cranium

Updated and newly revised annual scoring table

Rank _ Forecaster ____ J ___ F ___ M __ A ___ M __ J ___ TOTAL

01 _ Con Sensus _____ 64 _ 71 _ 92 _ 83 _ 66 _ 47 __ 423

01 _ rikand __________68 _ 65 _ 84 _ 78 _ 51 _ 68 __ 414
02 _ harps __________ 57 _ 63 _ 71 _ 74 _ 66 _ 63 __ 394
03 _ Bsal ___________ 74 _ 75 _ 73 _ 60 _ 61 _ 45 __ 388
04 _ Tae laidir _______ 46 _ 85 _ 38 _ 63 _ 76 _ 73 __ 381
05 _ kindredspirit _____67 _ 49 _ 69 _ 68 _ 52 _ 71 __ 376
06 _ omicron ________ 70 _ 56 _ 85 _ 68 _ 41 _ 39 __ 359
07 _ jpmarn _________ 61 _ 45 _ 60 _ 72 _ 74 _ 47 __ 359
08 _ pauldry _________62 _ 69 _ 50 _ 69 _ 63 _ 40 __ 353
09 _ traecy.1 ________ 63 _ 58 _ 75 _ 54 _ 62 _ 38 __ 350
10 _ waterways ______ 60 _ 74 _ 70 _ 40 _ 38 _ 64 __ 346

11 _ John mac _______ 67 _ 53 _ 61 _ 50 _ 50 _ 57 __ 338
12 _ 200 motels ______50 _ 71 _ 62 _ 51 _ 39 _ 58 __ 331
13 _ DOCARCH ______ 54 _ 47 _ 59 _ 79 _ 38 _ 52 __ 329
14 _ mickger844posts _ 69 _ 53 _ 56 _ 64 _ 54 _ 30 __ 326
15 _ dasa 29 ________ 61 _ 59 _ 60 _ 40 _ 57 _ 45 __ 322
16 _ dacogawa ______ 52 _ 53 _ 66 _ 61 _ 32 _ 52 __ 316
17 _ rameire ________ 54 _ 72 _ 51 _ 49 _ 41 _ 45 __ 312
18 _ Danno _________ 54 _ 58 _ 55 _ 47 _ 51 _ 41 __ 306
19 _ M.T. Cranium ____63 _ 62 _ 58 _ 56 _ 26 _ 31 __ 296
20 _ lostinashford_____--- _ 51 _ 79 _ 45 _ 45 _ 54 __ 274
21 _ okla ___________59 _ --- _ 61 _ 49 _ 59 _ 43 __ 271
22 _ talkabout ______ 59 _ --- _ 73 _ 66 _ 57 _ --- __ 255
23 _ jd _____________60 _ 58 _ 55 _ 75 _ ---_ --- __ 248
24 _ nilhg __________ 60 _ 64 _ 40 _ 72 _ --- _ --- __ 236
25 _ Joe Public ______ 60 _ 58 _ 50 _ 44 _ 10 _ 38 __ 218
26 _ delw __________ 44 _ 31 _ 38 _ 16 _ 34 _ 17 __ 180
27 _ homolumo ______58 _ 59 _ --- _ 46 _ --- _ --- __ 163
28 _ seafields _______ 40 _ --- _ 50 _ 33 _ --- _ --- __ 123
29 _ Robxxx7 _______ --- _ --- _ 72 _ 31 _ 33 _ -- __ 136
30 _ melanoma ______39 _ 65 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ -- __ 104
31 _ yoghurt87 ______ --- _ --- _ 53 _ --- _ 41 _ -- ___ 94
32 _ sunflower3 _____ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ 40 _ 27 ___ 67
33 _ downwesht _____ --- _ --- _ 64 _ --- _ --- _ -- ___ 64
34 _ The Zohan _____ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ 23 _ 38 ___ 61
35 _ dexter647 ______ --- _ --- _ --- _ 55 _ --- _ -- ___ 55
36 _ octo ___________47 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ -- ___ 47
37 _ rebelcork ______ --- _ --- _ 46 _ --- _ --- _ -- ___ 46
38 _ billcarson _____ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ 39 ___ 39
39 _ aimsir _________ --- _ --- _ 28 _ --- _ --- _ -- ___ 28

________________________________________________________________

Well, the good news is that our leaders (Rikand and harps and bsal ) are putting (even more) pressure on Con Sensus and may yet overtake.

Harps

I liked the previous results more! At least we're closing in on con sensus a bit more

Tae laidir

We can call it the Peloton this month!