June 2014 Boards forecast contest

M.T. Cranium

1. Predict the IMT, an average of five selected stations, which has averaged 13.7 C for the 30-yr period 1981 to 2010.

2. Predict the highest daily maximum at any reporting (met.ie) station.

3. Predict the lowest daily minimum at any reporting (met.ie) station.

4. Predict the monthly precip as a percentage of normal (for 11 reporting stations in met.ie Monthly Summary)

5. Predict the monthly sunshine as a percentage of normal (for 6 reporting stations in met.ie Monthly Summary)

6. Bonus -- PART 1 -- Predict the wettest single calendar day by giving a location (from Met.ie "daily data" menu) and an amount in mm (rounded to nearest). You'll see my early forecast says this -- Dunsany 50mm. So that's the format to use, not necessarily those details of course. Just to avoid any confusion, we're looking for the wettest single day, not the wettest station for the month. Then PART 2 provides 2 pts for anyone who guesses the right date. Please note, you have to predict a future date so if you like the second or third, enter before then. Once again, the format can be just a number between n and 30 where n is the date when you enter.

Now just for our contest, I will stipulate that for this bonus question (but not necessarily the summer forecast contest), I will ignore any data posted in MS from stations that don't appear in daily data. I believe that the daily data list is now the same as the hourly data reports, with such additional stations as Phoenix Park, Dunsany, Moorepark, Athenry, Newport, Mountdillon and Markree. Some of those don't make it into "yesterday's weather" but they do report in "daily data" which you can find under "past weather."

Deadlines for entry ... you have until the end of the day on Sunday 1st of June to enter without penalty. The actual deadline is set at 0300h on Monday, the second of May. After that, it's usually five point penalties for each half-day late, 0300 to 1500 and 1500 to 0300h used to determine half days, but I will be lenient due to the Bank holiday and go with half those increments on 2nd then full penalties 3rd onward. Don't forget, you have to use a date for your bonus forecast that has not yet begun when you enter (3 hours grace on that, so to be more precise, a day that has not yet reached 0300h).

Enter at this location, or on the thread itself.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/viewform?formkey=dElyZTJQeUJzVjdnQ1JBcThYdHpCSEE6MQ#gid=1


Thanks for entering, and good luck.

Tae laidir

Done

Bsal

Done.

waterways

Folks, some of you (Tae laidir, Bsal, pauldry) forgot to add the mm to the wettest station.

Bsal

MTC if you could add 22mm to my Mullingar that would be great.

Harps

Done

dasa29

Done

Joe Public

Done

DOCARCH

Done

...oh...I realise I did the same thing on the bonus question! Can I add 34mm to my answer. Thanks.

Jpmarn

Done add on 45mm for Valentia for the bonus question.

lostinashford

Done

John mac

Done.
.
.

The actual deadline is set at 0300h on Monday, the second of May

:D:D:D:D:D

dacogawa

Done

okla

Done

waterways

Folks, to remind you again, don't forget the mm . :pac:

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

)6. Bonus -- PART 1 -- Predict the wettest single calendar day by giving a location (from Met.ie "daily data" menu) and an amount in mm (rounded to nearest). You'll see my early forecast says this -- Dunsany 50mm.

EDIT I see there a water shortage

Rikand

Done

think i put the mm in

mickger844posts

done

delw

done

okla

Sorry I never put in any mms of rain for the bonus question.
I'll go 27mm in belmullet on 20th June.

rameire

Done.
second entry to correct the bonus question

omicron

Done, half an hour late! (unless the deadline is UTC and not summertime!)

M.T. Cranium

Table of forecasts for June 2014


FORECASTER ___________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN _ MAX RAIN ___ DATE

The Zohan ____________ 20.0 _ 29.0 _ 3.0 _ 075 _ 085 _ 35 Mace Head ___ 7
M.T. Cranium __________ 15.8 _ 29.5 _ 4.0 _ 102 _ 105 _ 50 Dunsany ____ 13
okla _________________ 15.2 _ 25.8 _ 4.8 _ 090 _ 105 _ 27 Belmullet ____ 20
dacogawa _____________14.8 _ 28.2 _ 3.5 _ 110 _ 100 _ 42 Valentia ______6
Tae laidir _____________ 14.4 _ 27.8 _ 3.1 _ 080 _ 108 _ xx Roches Point __ 1
Danno ____ (-10) ______ 14.4 _ 25.4 _ 3.9 _ 130 _ 110 _ 29 Moorepark ____6
kindredspirit __________ 14.2 _ 27.1 _ 3.5 _ 085 _ 110 _ 24 Knock _______ 15
rikand ________________14.2 _ 26.5 _ 4.0 _ 080 _ 120 _ 30 Mullingar ____ 17
lostinashford __________ 14.2 _ 25.3 _ 3.4 _ 095 _ 105 _ 38 Valentia _____ 15
omicron ______________ 14.2 _ 25.0 _ 4.5 _ 110 _ 100 _ 20 Valentia _____ 15
Jpmarn _______________14.2 _ 23.4 _ 2.5 _ 130 _ 090 _ 45 Valentia ______6
Bsal _________________ 14.0 _ 27.7 _ 5.1 _ 110 _ 098 _ 22 Mullingar ____12
waterways ____________ 14.0 _ 25.3 _ 0.8 _ 0 88 _ 124 _ 28 Malin Head ___ 8
200motels_____________ 13.9 _ 27.6 _ 4.9 _ 080 _ 145 _ 48 Valentia _____19

Con Sensus ___________ 13.9 _ 25.8 _ 3.8 _ 102 _ 100 _ 30 Valentia ____ 15

Harps ________________ 13.9 _ 26.1 _ 2.9 _ 110 _ 120 _ 33 Cork ________17
mickger844posts _______ 13.9 _ 25.1 _ 4.8 _ 110 _ 090 _ 22 Valentia _____ 21
Joe Public _____________ 13.9 _ 24.4 _ 3.9 _ 119 _ 099 _ xx Valentia _____ 8
DOCARCH ____________ 13.9 _ 24.2 _ 2.3 _ 110 _ 100 _ 34 Valentia _____ 11
Billcarson _____________ 13.9 _ 23.7 _ 3.8 _ 095 _ 090 _ 26 Belmullet ____15
Johnmac ______________ 13.8 _ 26.4 _ 3.4 _ 106 _ 098 _ 42 Valentia _____ 7
pauldry _______________13.7 _ 24.7 _ 4.1 _ 123 _ 087 _ 39 Cork _______ 30
rameire _______________13.6 _ 25.1 _ 3.0 _ 092 _ 106 _ 22 Malin Head __ 21
traecy1 _______________13.5 _ 26.5 _ 5.5 _ 120 _ 095 _ 25 Cork _______ 14
dasa29 _______________ 13.0 _ 26.0 _ 1.0 _ 110 _ 100 _ 25 Mullingar ___ 15
sunflower3_____________12.9 _ 22.5 _ 5.2 _ 098 _ 091 _ 34 Valentia ____ 22
delw _________________ 12.4 _ 18.0 _ 4.0 _ 120 _ 090 _ 30 Mullingar ___ 10

These are the entries received so far ... I cut omicron a break for entering within an hour of the deadline in the middle of the night ... and for those who missed the bonus question detail about rainfall amount (and showing as xx in the table) you have until the end of the 4th to enter an amount. This is going to count for five of the ten points and will be determined not by your own forecast location and date but by the actual max, so if you already passed the date, well there's just the one case so far, where the max was actually 8.3 mm at Mountdillon, so in any case, enter an amount in the thread (I will check the form too). Sorry about the confusion, the instructions in the form and in post number one were a bit different. Anyway, I'll see if I can rustle up some numbers from the xx group and we'll add on any new entries and adjust consensus.

Looks like the general consensus is not far from average in all regards. If The Zohan reads this, I'm wondering if you're taking the mean temperature as mean daytime, it's actually the average of daytime highs and night-time lows. If you want to revise on that basis, let me know, you're relatively new so it won't affect the annual contest.

delw

Redone with rainfall amount,thanks MT

omicron

Thanks for leaving the penalty out! Put me down for 20mm for the rainfall amount.

dacogawa

Could you put me in for 42mm please, sorry I didn't see that bit... Thanks!

pauldry

hi MT can you put me in for 39mm for rainfall amount

Danno

Missed the rainfall amount... will go with 29mm

Fr_Dougal

35mm for me, thanks.

pauldry

1.7c in claremorris

hard luck consensus and me!

Rikand

I'm not counting June for my points either

pauldry

34.8mm of rain Sherkin for bonus on June 6 th

As I still have no idea how this part works in comp is it good that my rainfall total was 38 or 39 but on June 30!?!?