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June 2014 Boards forecast contest

  • 29-05-2014 6:13am
    #1
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,742 ✭✭✭✭


    1. Predict the IMT, an average of five selected stations, which has averaged 13.7 C for the 30-yr period 1981 to 2010.

    2. Predict the highest daily maximum at any reporting (met.ie) station.

    3. Predict the lowest daily minimum at any reporting (met.ie) station.

    4. Predict the monthly precip as a percentage of normal (for 11 reporting stations in met.ie Monthly Summary)

    5. Predict the monthly sunshine as a percentage of normal (for 6 reporting stations in met.ie Monthly Summary)

    6. Bonus -- PART 1 -- Predict the wettest single calendar day by giving a location (from Met.ie "daily data" menu) and an amount in mm (rounded to nearest). You'll see my early forecast says this -- Dunsany 50mm. So that's the format to use, not necessarily those details of course. Just to avoid any confusion, we're looking for the wettest single day, not the wettest station for the month. Then PART 2 provides 2 pts for anyone who guesses the right date. Please note, you have to predict a future date so if you like the second or third, enter before then. Once again, the format can be just a number between n and 30 where n is the date when you enter.

    Now just for our contest, I will stipulate that for this bonus question (but not necessarily the summer forecast contest), I will ignore any data posted in MS from stations that don't appear in daily data. I believe that the daily data list is now the same as the hourly data reports, with such additional stations as Phoenix Park, Dunsany, Moorepark, Athenry, Newport, Mountdillon and Markree. Some of those don't make it into "yesterday's weather" but they do report in "daily data" which you can find under "past weather."

    Deadlines for entry ... you have until the end of the day on Sunday 1st of June to enter without penalty. The actual deadline is set at 0300h on Monday, the second of May. After that, it's usually five point penalties for each half-day late, 0300 to 1500 and 1500 to 0300h used to determine half days, but I will be lenient due to the Bank holiday and go with half those increments on 2nd then full penalties 3rd onward. Don't forget, you have to use a date for your bonus forecast that has not yet begun when you enter (3 hours grace on that, so to be more precise, a day that has not yet reached 0300h).

    Enter at this location, or on the thread itself.

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/viewform?formkey=dElyZTJQeUJzVjdnQ1JBcThYdHpCSEE6MQ#gid=1


    Thanks for entering, and good luck.


«1

Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 743 ✭✭✭Tae laidir


    Done


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,780 ✭✭✭Bsal


    Done.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 382 ✭✭waterways


    Folks, some of you (Tae laidir, Bsal, pauldry) forgot to add the mm to the wettest station.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,780 ✭✭✭Bsal


    MTC if you could add 22mm to my Mullingar that would be great.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,548 ✭✭✭Harps


    Done


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 579 ✭✭✭dasa29


    Done


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,788 ✭✭✭Joe Public


    Done


  • Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 18,451 Mod ✭✭✭✭DOCARCH


    Done

    ...oh...I realise I did the same thing on the bonus question! Can I add 34mm to my answer. Thanks.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,490 ✭✭✭Jpmarn


    Done add on 45mm for Valentia for the bonus question.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 721 ✭✭✭lostinashford


    Done


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,140 ✭✭✭John mac


    Done.
    .
    .
    The actual deadline is set at 0300h on Monday, the second of May

    :D:D:D:D:D:D


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,845 ✭✭✭dacogawa


    Done


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 208 ✭✭okla


    Done


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 382 ✭✭waterways


    Folks, to remind you again, don't forget the mm . :pac:

    )6. Bonus -- PART 1 -- Predict the wettest single calendar day by giving a location (from Met.ie "daily data" menu) and an amount in mm (rounded to nearest). You'll see my early forecast says this -- Dunsany 50mm.


    EDIT I see there a water shortage :):):)


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,513 ✭✭✭✭Rikand


    Done

    think i put the mm in :)


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 4,483 Mod ✭✭✭✭mickger844posts


    done


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,655 ✭✭✭delw


    done


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 208 ✭✭okla


    Sorry I never put in any mms of rain for the bonus question.
    I'll go 27mm in belmullet on 20th June.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,241 ✭✭✭rameire


    Done.
    second entry to correct the bonus question

    🌞 3.8kwp, 🌞 Clonee, Dub.🌞



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 845 ✭✭✭omicron


    Done, half an hour late! (unless the deadline is UTC and not summertime!)


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,742 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Table of forecasts for June 2014


    FORECASTER ___________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN _ MAX RAIN ___ DATE

    The Zohan ____________ 20.0 _ 29.0 _ 3.0 _ 075 _ 085 _ 35 Mace Head ___ 7
    M.T. Cranium __________ 15.8 _ 29.5 _ 4.0 _ 102 _ 105 _ 50 Dunsany ____ 13
    okla _________________ 15.2 _ 25.8 _ 4.8 _ 090 _ 105 _ 27 Belmullet ____ 20
    dacogawa _____________14.8 _ 28.2 _ 3.5 _ 110 _ 100 _ 42 Valentia ______6
    Tae laidir _____________ 14.4 _ 27.8 _ 3.1 _ 080 _ 108 _ xx Roches Point __ 1
    Danno ____ (-10) ______ 14.4 _ 25.4 _ 3.9 _ 130 _ 110 _ 29 Moorepark ____6
    kindredspirit __________ 14.2 _ 27.1 _ 3.5 _ 085 _ 110 _ 24 Knock _______ 15
    rikand ________________14.2 _ 26.5 _ 4.0 _ 080 _ 120 _ 30 Mullingar ____ 17
    lostinashford __________ 14.2 _ 25.3 _ 3.4 _ 095 _ 105 _ 38 Valentia _____ 15
    omicron ______________ 14.2 _ 25.0 _ 4.5 _ 110 _ 100 _ 20 Valentia _____ 15
    Jpmarn _______________14.2 _ 23.4 _ 2.5 _ 130 _ 090 _ 45 Valentia ______6
    Bsal _________________ 14.0 _ 27.7 _ 5.1 _ 110 _ 098 _ 22 Mullingar ____12
    waterways ____________ 14.0 _ 25.3 _ 0.8 _ 0 88 _ 124 _ 28 Malin Head ___ 8
    200motels_____________ 13.9 _ 27.6 _ 4.9 _ 080 _ 145 _ 48 Valentia _____19

    Con Sensus ___________ 13.9 _ 25.8 _ 3.8 _ 102 _ 100 _ 30 Valentia ____ 15

    Harps ________________ 13.9 _ 26.1 _ 2.9 _ 110 _ 120 _ 33 Cork ________17
    mickger844posts _______ 13.9 _ 25.1 _ 4.8 _ 110 _ 090 _ 22 Valentia _____ 21
    Joe Public _____________ 13.9 _ 24.4 _ 3.9 _ 119 _ 099 _ xx Valentia _____ 8
    DOCARCH ____________ 13.9 _ 24.2 _ 2.3 _ 110 _ 100 _ 34 Valentia _____ 11
    Billcarson _____________ 13.9 _ 23.7 _ 3.8 _ 095 _ 090 _ 26 Belmullet ____15
    Johnmac ______________ 13.8 _ 26.4 _ 3.4 _ 106 _ 098 _ 42 Valentia _____ 7
    pauldry _______________13.7 _ 24.7 _ 4.1 _ 123 _ 087 _ 39 Cork _______ 30
    rameire _______________13.6 _ 25.1 _ 3.0 _ 092 _ 106 _ 22 Malin Head __ 21
    traecy1 _______________13.5 _ 26.5 _ 5.5 _ 120 _ 095 _ 25 Cork _______ 14
    dasa29 _______________ 13.0 _ 26.0 _ 1.0 _ 110 _ 100 _ 25 Mullingar ___ 15
    sunflower3_____________12.9 _ 22.5 _ 5.2 _ 098 _ 091 _ 34 Valentia ____ 22
    delw _________________ 12.4 _ 18.0 _ 4.0 _ 120 _ 090 _ 30 Mullingar ___ 10

    These are the entries received so far ... I cut omicron a break for entering within an hour of the deadline in the middle of the night ... and for those who missed the bonus question detail about rainfall amount (and showing as xx in the table) you have until the end of the 4th to enter an amount. This is going to count for five of the ten points and will be determined not by your own forecast location and date but by the actual max, so if you already passed the date, well there's just the one case so far, where the max was actually 8.3 mm at Mountdillon, so in any case, enter an amount in the thread (I will check the form too). Sorry about the confusion, the instructions in the form and in post number one were a bit different. Anyway, I'll see if I can rustle up some numbers from the xx group and we'll add on any new entries and adjust consensus.

    Looks like the general consensus is not far from average in all regards. If The Zohan reads this, I'm wondering if you're taking the mean temperature as mean daytime, it's actually the average of daytime highs and night-time lows. If you want to revise on that basis, let me know, you're relatively new so it won't affect the annual contest.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,655 ✭✭✭delw


    Redone with rainfall amount,thanks MT


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 845 ✭✭✭omicron


    Thanks for leaving the penalty out! Put me down for 20mm for the rainfall amount.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,845 ✭✭✭dacogawa


    Could you put me in for 42mm please, sorry I didn't see that bit... Thanks!


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,299 ✭✭✭pauldry


    hi MT can you put me in for 39mm for rainfall amount


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,913 ✭✭✭Danno


    Missed the rainfall amount... will go with 29mm


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,166 ✭✭✭Fr_Dougal


    35mm for me, thanks.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,299 ✭✭✭pauldry


    1.7c in claremorris

    hard luck consensus and me!


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,513 ✭✭✭✭Rikand


    I'm not counting June for my points either :)


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,299 ✭✭✭pauldry


    34.8mm of rain Sherkin for bonus on June 6 th

    As I still have no idea how this part works in comp is it good that my rainfall total was 38 or 39 but on June 30!?!?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,742 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Yes the two parts will be scored 5-5 and the date is worth 2 for anyone who gets it "spot on" and 1 for a one day error.

    So your amount forecast is in the running at this point. Locations will be scored in some complicated way that will depend on what actually happens, I will try to give some points for close guesses if nobody gets it exactly right. Some sort of secondary points for a good forecast that ends up second or third place will be considered too. I feel partly responsible for Joe and Tae laidir missing the amount portion and I may cut them a break by assuming their amount forecast correlates with their PRC percentage. Or maybe they posted, I have to go back a page to see.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,299 ✭✭✭pauldry


    haha confused more now.

    for july predict the wind direction on july 24 in mph but at midday and aggregate scoring percentage diminishing revalued towards the x minus.

    ok thats simple enough.

    enjoy!:rolleyes::p


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,742 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    After seven days ...

    IMT 12.4 C

    PRC 117%

    SUN 80%


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,513 ✭✭✭✭Rikand


    After seven days ...

    IMT 12.4 C

    PRC 117%

    SUN 80%

    come on sun! Stupid rain...


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,742 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Somewhat belated report on week 2 (8-14) with adjustments in brackets for first half of June ...

    IMT now on 13.6 (13.6) after a rather warm week at 14.7 (and 15th similar)

    PRC stayed close to previous mark at 114%, the week was 111% although quite variable, for example Ballyhaise had a lot more than Casement. As the 15th was dry that would leave us at (106). A general dry spell will drop these numbers about five per cent a day (isolated storms would have to hit one of eleven sites and drop a lot there).

    SUN has improved a little to 85% after a week close to 90% (somewhat estimated) and this coming spell of partly cloudy weather on average may allow that to increase towards 100% or maybe a bit better given where the six stations are located.

    Maybe somebody could look into the current MAX although I expect it to be increased soon anyway, think it's around 23.

    My rainfall forecast (13th at Dunsany) would have verified if let's say the weak line of showers were stronger and had lasted to there which it didn't. Oh well.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,513 ✭✭✭✭Rikand


    Warmer week on the way, get that IMT up to 14+!


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,299 ✭✭✭pauldry


    max 23.5c Claremorris


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,299 ✭✭✭pauldry


    pauldry wrote: »
    max 23.5c Claremorris

    Scratch that at least 25c today and at least 27c tomorrow


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,299 ✭✭✭pauldry


    pauldry wrote: »
    max 23.5c Claremorris

    Scratch that at least 25c today and at least 27c tomorrow


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,742 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    The third week of June has changed the numbers considerably ...

    IMT now at 14.2 C (week was 15.6).

    PRC for the week was almost zero (1% thanks to Malin Head) and that drops the monthly average to 76%.

    SUN was almost double the normal amount at 199% and that raises the month to around 127%.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,513 ✭✭✭✭Rikand


    stays like that, will be grand :D


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,742 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Two pieces of administrivia ...

    (1) Because of the confusion about the bonus question that was mostly my fault, what I will be doing is to look at amount, location and date and scoring each person on best two of three. So if you missed the amount, at least you have some chance of doing alright. Also, if it turns out to be a toss-up between 6th and 26th with close amounts, then two sets of scores based on that thing we did last May 2013 with the heavy rainfall dates.

    (2) July 2014 will open up soon when I have the form in place. But to give you a heads up on the bonus, it will be warmest max on Saturday 5th and a location (closest to one of the five IMT sites). As that will be a bit of a short-range skill question for a change, be sure to enter on time because I will have to limit scores for late entries. The deadline as usual will be overnight 1st-2nd.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,299 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Sherkin on 6th 34.8mm is far ahead of anything today

    can we forget about the min, the max as well and just give everyone 100;)

    except consensus give himherit nothing zero zilch!


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,742 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Well actually there was 25 mm at Moorepark on Thursday 26th, and as yet unknown amounts could fall into a rain gauge somewhere today, but it has to be one of the official ones of course. But I will score on the basis of a primary and secondary maximum to reward reasonably good guesses.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,742 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    After four weeks, likely to be very similar to finishing values now ...

    IMT 14.4 C

    PRC now 82% after a quite normal week at 98%

    SUN about the same as last report at 125%, the week similar.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,742 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Actual values:

    IMT 14.4 C (from 14.36)
    MAX 26.0 C at Moore Park
    MIN 1.7 C at Claremorris
    PRC 75%
    SUN 128%

    Final scoring -- June 2014

    FORECASTER _________ IMT MAX MIN PRC SUN BONUS ____ TOTALS

    waterways ____________ 21 _ 13 _ 14*_ 11 _ 10 ___ 6________ 75
    Harps ________________20 _ 19 _ 13*_ 03 _ 08 ___ 9 ________ 72
    rikand _______________ 23 _ 15 _ 06*_ 13 _ 08 ___ 4 ________ 69
    lostinashford __________ 23 _ 13 _ 09*_ 08 _ 05 ___ 7 ________ 65
    Tae laidir _____________ 25 _ 02 _ 10*_ 13 _ 06 ___ 6 ________ 62
    Danno ____ (-10) ______ 25 _ 14 _ 07*_ 00 _ 06 __ 10 __ 62-10=52
    kindredspirit __________ 23 _ 09 _ 08*_ 12 _ 06 ___ 2 ________ 60
    Johnmac _____________ 19 _ 16 _ 09*_ 05 _ 04 ___ 7 ________ 60

    Con Sensus ___________ 20 _ 18 _ 07*_ 06 _ 04 ___ 3 ________ 58

    rameire ______________ 17 _ 11 _ 11*_ 09 _ 06 ___ 2 ________ 56
    dasa29 _______________11 _ 20 _ 16*_ 03 _ 04 ___ 2 ________ 56
    DOCARCH ____________ 20 _ 02 _ 18*_ 03 _ 04 ___ 7 ________ 54
    okla _________________ 17 _ 18 _ 01*_ 10 _ 05 ___ 3 ________ 54
    omicron ______________ 23 _ 10 _ 03*_ 03 _ 04 ___ 6 ________ 49
    Jpmarn _______________23 _ 00 _ 15*_ 00 _ 02 ___ 7 ________ 47
    200motels_____________20 _ 04 _ 00 __13 _ 07 ___ 3 ________ 47
    dacogawa _____________21 _ 00 _ 08*_ 03 _ 04 ___ 7 ________ 43
    Joe Public _____________20 _ 04 _ 07*_ 01 _ 04 ___ 6 ________ 42
    mickger844posts _______ 20 _ 11 _ 01*_ 03 _ 02 ___ 4 ________ 41
    pauldry _______________18 _ 07 _ 05*_ 00 _ 02 ___ 8 ________ 40
    Billcarson _____________20 _ 00 _ 07*_ 08 _ 02 ___ 2 ________ 39
    traecy1 _______________16 _ 15 _ 00 __00 _ 03 ___ 5 ________ 39
    The Zohan ____________ 00 _ 00 _ 12*_ 15 _ 01 ___ 9 ________ 37
    bsal _________________ 21 _ 03 _ 00 __03 _ 04 ___ 3 ________ 34
    M.T. Cranium __________ 11 _ 00 _ 06*_ 06 _ 05 ___ 3 ________ 31
    sunflower3_____________10 _ 00 _ 00 __07 _ 03 ___ 7 ________ 27
    delw _________________ 05 _ 00 _ 06*_ 00 _ 02 ___ 4 ________ 17

    * adjusted scores for minimum progression
    _______________________________________________________________

    Congrats to Waterways, harps and rikand for leading the way.

    Will update annual scoring later today.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,742 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Updated annual scoring table

    Rank _ Forecaster ____ J ___ F ___ M __ A ___ M __ J ___ TOTAL

    01 _ Con Sensus _____ 64 _ 71 _ 92 _ 83 _ 66 _ 58 __ 434

    01 _ rikand __________68 _ 65 _ 84 _ 78 _ 51 _ 69 __ 415
    02 _ harps __________ 57 _ 63 _ 71 _ 74 _ 66 _ 72 __ 403
    03 _ Bsal ___________ 74 _ 75 _ 73 _ 60 _ 61 _ 34 __ 377
    04 _ Tae laidir _______ 46 _ 85 _ 38 _ 63 _ 76 _ 62 __ 370
    05 _ omicron ________ 70 _ 56 _ 85 _ 68 _ 41 _ 49 __ 369
    06 _ kindredspirit _____67 _ 49 _ 69 _ 68 _ 52 _ 60 __ 365
    07 _ jpmarn _________61 _ 45 _ 60 _ 72 _ 74 _ 47 __ 359
    08 _ waterways ______ 60 _ 74 _ 70 _ 40 _ 38 _ 75 __ 357
    09 _ pauldry _________62 _ 69 _ 50 _ 69 _ 63 _ 40 __ 353
    10 _ traecy.1 ________ 63 _ 58 _ 75 _ 54 _ 62 _ 39 __ 351
    11 _ John mac _______67 _ 53 _ 61 _ 50 _ 50 _ 60 __ 341
    12 _ mickger844posts _ 69 _ 53 _ 56 _ 64 _ 54 _ 41 __ 337
    13 _ dasa 29 ________ 61 _ 59 _ 60 _ 40 _ 57 _ 56 __ 333
    14 _ DOCARCH ______ 54 _ 47 _ 59 _ 79 _ 38 _ 54 __ 331
    15 _ rameire ________ 54 _ 72 _ 51 _ 49 _ 41 _ 56 __ 323
    16 _ 200 motels ______50 _ 71 _ 62 _ 51 _ 39 _ 47 __ 320
    17 _ Danno _________ 54 _ 58 _ 55 _ 47 _ 51 _ 52 __ 317
    18 _ dacogawa ______ 52 _ 53 _ 66 _ 61 _ 32 _ 43 __ 307
    19 _ M.T. Cranium ____63 _ 62 _ 58 _ 56 _ 26 _ 31 __ 296
    20 _ lostinashford_____--- _ 51 _ 79 _ 45 _ 45 _ 65 __ 285
    21 _ okla ___________59 _ --- _ 61 _ 49 _ 59 _ 54 __ 282
    22 _ talkabout ______ 59 _ --- _ 73 _ 66 _ 57 _ --- __ 255
    23 _ jd _____________60 _ 58 _ 55 _ 75 _ ---_ --- __ 248
    24 _ nilhg __________ 60 _ 64 _ 40 _ 72 _ --- _ --- __ 236
    25 _ Joe Public ______ 60 _ 58 _ 50 _ 44 _ 10 _ 42 __ 222
    26 _ delw __________ 44 _ 31 _ 38 _ 16 _ 34 _ 17 __ 180
    27 _ homolumo ______58 _ 59 _ --- _ 46 _ --- _ --- __ 163
    28 _ seafields _______ 40 _ --- _ 50 _ 33 _ --- _ --- __ 123
    29 _ Robxxx7 _______ --- _ --- _ 72 _ 31 _ 33 _ -- __ 136
    30 _ melanoma ______39 _ 65 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ -- __ 104
    31 _ yoghurt87 ______ --- _ --- _ 53 _ --- _ 41 _ -- ___ 94
    32 _ downwesht _____ --- _ --- _ 64 _ --- _ --- _ -- ___ 64
    33 _ The Zohan _____ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ 23 _ 37 ___ 60
    34 _ dexter647 ______ --- _ --- _ --- _ 55 _ --- _ -- ___ 55
    35 _ octo ___________47 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ -- ___ 47
    36 _ rebelcork ______ --- _ --- _ 46 _ --- _ --- _ -- ___ 46
    37 _ sunflower3 _____ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ 40 _ -- ___ 40
    38 _ billcarson _____ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ 39 ___ 39
    39 _ aimsir _________ --- _ --- _ 28 _ --- _ --- _ -- ___ 28

    ________________________________________________________________

    Well, the good news is that our leaders (Rikand and harps) are putting a bit of pressure on Con Sensus and may yet overtake.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,513 ✭✭✭✭Rikand


    we got this harps ;)


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,742 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    As explained in the July thread, I have had to revisit these tables after becoming aware that there was an error in the MAX. I have preserved what was posted on the first of July, either I totally misread something in the Summary or they edited it after I did this work. At the time I was briefly puzzled to see the 26.0 when I recalled somebody posting 27 as a max and that's actually the new value. So it means a re-do for this table and the annual table. I can't even edit the old tables now so here we go again. Sorry for the confusion.


    Actual values:

    IMT 14.4 C (from 14.36)
    MAX 26.0 C at Moore Park now 27.1 at Newport
    MIN 1.7 C at Claremorris
    PRC 75%
    SUN 128%

    revised final scoring -- June 2014

    FORECASTER _________ IMT MAX MIN PRC SUN BONUS ____ TOTALS

    Tae laidir _____________25 _ 13 _ 10*_ 13 _ 06 ___ 6 ________ 73
    kindredspirit __________ 23 _ 20 _ 08*_ 12 _ 06 ___ 2 ________ 71
    rikand _______________ 23 _ 14 _ 06*_ 13 _ 08 ___ 4 ________ 68
    waterways ____________21 _ 02 _ 14*_ 11 _ 10 ___ 6_________64
    Harps ________________20 _ 10 _ 13*_ 03 _ 08 ___ 9 ________ 63
    200motels_____________20 _ 15 _ 00 __13 _ 07 ___ 3 ________ 58
    Johnmac _____________ 19 _ 13 _ 09*_ 05 _ 04 ___ 7 ________ 57
    lostinashford __________ 23 _ 02 _ 09*_ 08 _ 05 ___ 7 ________ 54
    DOCARCH ____________ 20 _ 00 _ 18*_ 03 _ 04 ___ 7 ________ 52
    dacogawa _____________21 _ 09 _ 08*_ 03 _ 04 ___ 7 ________ 52
    Jpmarn _______________23 _ 00 _ 15*_ 00 _ 02 ___ 7 ________ 47

    Con Sensus ___________ 20 _ 07 _ 07*_ 06 _ 04 ___ 3 ________ 47

    bsal _________________ 21 _ 14 _ 00 __03 _ 04 ___ 3 ________ 45
    rameire ______________ 17 _ 00 _ 11*_ 09 _ 06 ___ 2 ________ 45
    dasa29 _______________11 _ 09 _ 16*_ 03 _ 04 ___ 2 ________ 45
    okla _________________ 17 _ 07 _ 01*_ 10 _ 05 ___ 3 ________ 43
    Danno ____ (-10) ______ 25 _ 03 _ 07*_ 00 _ 06 __ 10 __ 51-10=41
    pauldry _______________18 _ 07 _ 05*_ 00 _ 02 ___ 8 ________ 40
    omicron ______________ 23 _ 00 _ 03*_ 03 _ 04 ___ 6 ________ 39
    Billcarson _____________20 _ 00 _ 07*_ 08 _ 02 ___ 2 ________ 39
    traecy1 _______________16 _ 14 _ 00 __00 _ 03 ___ 5 ________ 38
    Joe Public _____________20 _ 00 _ 07*_ 01 _ 04 ___ 6 ________ 38
    The Zohan ____________ 00 _ 01 _ 12*_ 15 _ 01 ___ 9 ________ 38
    M.T. Cranium __________ 11 _ 00 _ 06*_ 06 _ 05 ___ 3 ________ 31
    mickger844posts _______ 20 _ 00 _ 01*_ 03 _ 02 ___ 4 ________ 30
    sunflower3_____________10 _ 00 _ 00 __07 _ 03 ___ 7 ________ 27
    delw _________________ 05 _ 00 _ 06*_ 00 _ 02 ___ 4 ________ 17

    * adjusted scores for minimum progression
    _______________________________________________________________

    Congrats to Tae laidir, kindredspirit and Rikand for leading the way.

    Revised and updated annual scoring to follow.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,742 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Updated and newly revised annual scoring table

    Rank _ Forecaster ____ J ___ F ___ M __ A ___ M __ J ___ TOTAL

    01 _ Con Sensus _____ 64 _ 71 _ 92 _ 83 _ 66 _ 47 __ 423

    01 _ rikand __________68 _ 65 _ 84 _ 78 _ 51 _ 68 __ 414
    02 _ harps __________ 57 _ 63 _ 71 _ 74 _ 66 _ 63 __ 394
    03 _ Bsal ___________ 74 _ 75 _ 73 _ 60 _ 61 _ 45 __ 388
    04 _ Tae laidir _______ 46 _ 85 _ 38 _ 63 _ 76 _ 73 __ 381
    05 _ kindredspirit _____67 _ 49 _ 69 _ 68 _ 52 _ 71 __ 376
    06 _ omicron ________ 70 _ 56 _ 85 _ 68 _ 41 _ 39 __ 359
    07 _ jpmarn _________ 61 _ 45 _ 60 _ 72 _ 74 _ 47 __ 359
    08 _ pauldry _________62 _ 69 _ 50 _ 69 _ 63 _ 40 __ 353
    09 _ traecy.1 ________ 63 _ 58 _ 75 _ 54 _ 62 _ 38 __ 350
    10 _ waterways ______ 60 _ 74 _ 70 _ 40 _ 38 _ 64 __ 346

    11 _ John mac _______ 67 _ 53 _ 61 _ 50 _ 50 _ 57 __ 338
    12 _ 200 motels ______50 _ 71 _ 62 _ 51 _ 39 _ 58 __ 331
    13 _ DOCARCH ______ 54 _ 47 _ 59 _ 79 _ 38 _ 52 __ 329
    14 _ mickger844posts _ 69 _ 53 _ 56 _ 64 _ 54 _ 30 __ 326
    15 _ dasa 29 ________ 61 _ 59 _ 60 _ 40 _ 57 _ 45 __ 322
    16 _ dacogawa ______ 52 _ 53 _ 66 _ 61 _ 32 _ 52 __ 316
    17 _ rameire ________ 54 _ 72 _ 51 _ 49 _ 41 _ 45 __ 312
    18 _ Danno _________ 54 _ 58 _ 55 _ 47 _ 51 _ 41 __ 306
    19 _ M.T. Cranium ____63 _ 62 _ 58 _ 56 _ 26 _ 31 __ 296
    20 _ lostinashford_____--- _ 51 _ 79 _ 45 _ 45 _ 54 __ 274
    21 _ okla ___________59 _ --- _ 61 _ 49 _ 59 _ 43 __ 271
    22 _ talkabout ______ 59 _ --- _ 73 _ 66 _ 57 _ --- __ 255
    23 _ jd _____________60 _ 58 _ 55 _ 75 _ ---_ --- __ 248
    24 _ nilhg __________ 60 _ 64 _ 40 _ 72 _ --- _ --- __ 236
    25 _ Joe Public ______ 60 _ 58 _ 50 _ 44 _ 10 _ 38 __ 218
    26 _ delw __________ 44 _ 31 _ 38 _ 16 _ 34 _ 17 __ 180
    27 _ homolumo ______58 _ 59 _ --- _ 46 _ --- _ --- __ 163
    28 _ seafields _______ 40 _ --- _ 50 _ 33 _ --- _ --- __ 123
    29 _ Robxxx7 _______ --- _ --- _ 72 _ 31 _ 33 _ -- __ 136
    30 _ melanoma ______39 _ 65 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ -- __ 104
    31 _ yoghurt87 ______ --- _ --- _ 53 _ --- _ 41 _ -- ___ 94
    32 _ sunflower3 _____ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ 40 _ 27 ___ 67
    33 _ downwesht _____ --- _ --- _ 64 _ --- _ --- _ -- ___ 64
    34 _ The Zohan _____ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ 23 _ 38 ___ 61
    35 _ dexter647 ______ --- _ --- _ --- _ 55 _ --- _ -- ___ 55
    36 _ octo ___________47 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ -- ___ 47
    37 _ rebelcork ______ --- _ --- _ 46 _ --- _ --- _ -- ___ 46
    38 _ billcarson _____ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ 39 ___ 39
    39 _ aimsir _________ --- _ --- _ 28 _ --- _ --- _ -- ___ 28

    ________________________________________________________________

    Well, the good news is that our leaders (Rikand and harps and bsal ) are putting (even more) pressure on Con Sensus and may yet overtake.


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