Storm Callum - Thursday/Friday 11/12 October 2018 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST

crusier · 08-10-2018 10:36am

Artane2002 wrote:

Friday: Wet and very windy; southwest winds with some severe gusts during the morning. The winds will ease in the afternoon, becoming light in the evening time. Rain turning more to showers through the day.

Artane2002 wrote:

First mention of severe gusts from Met Ã‰ireann:

Hurricane coming so

newholland mad · 08-10-2018 10:53am

Is there much rain expected with this system in the southeast?

Villain · 08-10-2018 1:17pm

We going with one thread for Callum and Leslie? A wet windy end to the week coming!

Villain · 08-10-2018 1:20pm

newholland mad wrote: »

Is there much rain expected with this system in the southeast?

Possibly up to 40mm by end of the week.

MJohnston · 08-10-2018 1:44pm

Can yis remember to link these event threads from the main season discussion thread? I completely missed this one till just now!

To Alcohol · 08-10-2018 1:54pm

Anyone expecting red warning levels with this?

pauldry · 08-10-2018 2:21pm

Depends on track

So far a little too far West for Red (just a little)

But that could change

08-10-2018 2:23pm

6Z GFS keeps it quite a bit offshore for now.

MJohnston · 08-10-2018 2:33pm

Deleted User wrote: »

6Z GFS keeps it quite a bit offshore for now.

Yeah, but it's worth noting that the worst winds are on the eastern half of this storm, so you'd want it to go either way off shore, or pass over the east. As it is:

08-10-2018 2:43pm

MJohnston wrote: »

Yeah, but it's worth noting that the worst winds are on the eastern half of this storm, so you'd want it to go either way off shore, or pass over the east. As it is:

Yep. I see Leslie comes into view on the last few frames of that chart. GFS has it following a similar track to the Friday storm (for now). ECM sends Leslie into Spain and dissipating.

MJohnston · 08-10-2018 2:45pm

Minimal affect on us from Leslie really, but tight margins and a very small shift east has the potential for bringing very strong gusts over us:

Storm 10 · 08-10-2018 2:49pm

Bit more now from ME

During Thursday night/Friday morning there is the risk of stormy conditions
developing as a deep area of low pressure tracks to the West of Ireland in a
strong South to Southwesterly jet stream. Strong to gale force Southerly winds
could potentially give some damaging gusts especially in the West. Heavy rain
will clear to showers, with the risk of further rain returning from the South
later. There is also the risk of coastal flooding due to high tides and surge.

Defaulter1831 · 08-10-2018 3:00pm

Is it just me or do we seem to have a major increase in wind events say Darwin February 2014 to the present?

And these very early season storms over the past 2 years. I wonder if it's the start of a trend. I know we had 'Hurricane' Debbie in September 1961 but i doubt it was followed the following year by an Ali type storm.

Maybe it's just weather rather than climate. Hopefully so because if not global warming could be proceeding at a rapid rate. All the extremes we've witnessed starting with Ophelia.

Donegal Storm · 08-10-2018 3:09pm

Defaulter1831 wrote: »

Is it just me or do we seem to have a major increase in wind events say Darwin February 2014 to the present?

And these very early season storms over the past 2 years. I wonder if it's the start of a trend. I know we had 'Hurricane' Debbie in September 1961 but i doubt it was followed the following year by an Ali type storm.

Maybe it's just weather rather than climate. Hopefully so because if not global warming could be proceeding at a rapid rate. All the extremes we've witnessed starting with Ophelia.

Something I've definitely noticed in the past few years is storms are tracking further south than usual, from 2000-2010 it seemed nearly every big storm would track just to our north with Donegal and Scotland seeing the strongest winds. These past few years it's increasingly been Galway/Mayo and even further south taking the brunt with the north less affected.

Just anecdotal but I cant remember the last decent storm to give us a direct hit in Donegal

Defaulter1831 · 08-10-2018 3:13pm

Donegal Storm wrote: »

Something I've definitely noticed in the past few years is storms are tracking further south than usual, from 2000-2010 it seemed nearly every big storm would track just to our north with Donegal and Scotland seeing the strongest winds. These past few years it's increasingly been Galway/Mayo and even further south taking the brunt with the north less affected.

Just anecdotal but I cant remember the last decent storm to give us a direct hit in Donegal

Yes, i agree, they all veered towards Scotland and Iceland for the most part. Stephen's Day 1998 would have hit ye fairly hard in Donegal? We had the opposite, Christmas Eve 1997 down in the south east was bad. Also Around St. Bridget's Day 1988 there was a bad enough storm that seemed to hit the north west badly. And one on the 5th/6th January 1991. February 1990 had a string of storms and was very wet.

Graces7 · 08-10-2018 4:11pm

Defaulter1831 wrote: »

Yes, i agree, they all veered towards Scotland and Iceland for the most part. Stephen's Day 1998 would have hit ye fairly hard in Donegal? We had the opposite, Christmas Eve 1997 down in the south east was bad. Also Around St. Bridget's Day 1988 there was a bad enough storm that seemed to hit the north west badly. And one on the 5th/6th January 1991. February 1990 had a string of storms and was very wet.

I was in Kerry then and that storm moved my digiweb satellite dish and knocked out all my communications. It also knocked a large tree across the private lane so I could not get out to report the damage.

Graces7 · 08-10-2018 4:14pm

Defaulter1831 wrote: »

Is it just me or do we seem to have a major increase in wind events say Darwin February 2014 to the present?

And these very early season storms over the past 2 years. I wonder if it's the start of a trend. I know we had 'Hurricane' Debbie in September 1961 but i doubt it was followed the following year by an Ali type storm.

Maybe it's just weather rather than climate. Hopefully so because if not global warming could be proceeding at a rapid rate. All the extremes we've witnessed starting with Ophelia.

The first big storm I remember here in Mayo last year ( my first year here) was Brian, I think the end of October? The day before I crossed to the mainland and got stranded and just managed to get home the following morning as Brian was rampaging in. Ophelia missed us , neatly turning inland

Sycamore Tree · 08-10-2018 4:18pm

To Alcohol wrote: »

Anyone expecting red warning levels with this?

Don't mention the war!

Let's get closer to the event and see what Met.ie say.

Whatever the colour, people should take precautions for every storm that comes our way.

sryanbruen · 08-10-2018 5:19pm

MJohnston wrote: »

Can yis remember to link these event threads from the main season discussion thread? I completely missed this one till just now!

I usually do but keep forgetting sometimes

.

JanuarySnowstor · 08-10-2018 5:58pm

Today's charts back away quite a bit from anything other than a Northwest event.
Any further nudge West and it will be a non event.
Let's wait and see though for this evenings ECM

PukkaStukka · 08-10-2018 6:02pm

6pm forecast warns of potentially stormy conditions Thursday night into Friday and to "Check the website" for updates

spookwoman · 08-10-2018 6:49pm

PukkaStukka wrote: »

6pm forecast warns of potentially stormy conditions Thursday night into Friday and to "Check the website" for updates

At least they have said watch this space. Hopefully they will update on radio and tv as well. Not everyone would be internet savvy or have net to access their site for update.

UK have issues Yellow for friday includes NI

eigrod · 08-10-2018 6:57pm

Joanna pointed it out on the chart just now and said to keep in touch throughout the week as it’s one to watch

Meteorite58 · 08-10-2018 7:06pm

GFS looking the strongest on the latest runs and has kept its track, shape and strong winds more or less intact for the moment, ARPEGE has lost some of its potency and shows the storm center further offshore and keeping the strongest winds further W and along coastal counties . ICON showing the frontal band not producing as strong winds as the others it too has lost some of its strength in general.ARPEGE the weaker of the three atm.

So this could be the beginning of it drifting further W / NW or maybe not. If the ECM 12Z is holding its track and strength like the GFS I would be inclined to side with them at this stage. The ARPEGE and ICON are better models closer to the event.

ECM rolling out soon, will be interesting to compare.

ninebeanrows · 08-10-2018 7:14pm

EC just rolled out- good run-to-run consistency, parts of the west and northwest to take a harsh hit with this one.

MJohnston · 08-10-2018 7:37pm

Significant winds on that ECM run

Deep into red alert territory for the West if that came off.

Graces7 · 08-10-2018 7:43pm

MJohnston wrote: »

Significant winds on that ECM run

Deep into red alert territory for the West if that came off.

Bad enough now frankly. West Mayo offshore island.

JCX BXC · 08-10-2018 7:46pm

MJohnston wrote: »

Significant winds on that ECM run

Deep into red alert territory for the West if that came off.

Yup, a fairly widespread 130, mainly in the West/Southwest.

Fitzo123 · 08-10-2018 7:47pm

If this maintains I'm assuming it's red warning and school's off.

Typical teacher but trying to organise matches is hard enough these days!

Meteorite58 · 08-10-2018 7:48pm

EC just rolled out- good run-to-run consistency, parts of the west and northwest to take a harsh hit with this one.

Yeaah looks quite similar, a bit further W. and packing a punch. Moving faster than earlier runs.

ninebeanrows · 08-10-2018 7:53pm

Fitzo123 wrote: »

If this maintains I'm assuming it's red warning and school's off.

Typical teacher but trying to organise matches is hard enough these days!

There is the potential for a red warning for limited areas in the west and northwest.

Fitzo123 · 08-10-2018 8:11pm

Sleety_Rain wrote: »

There is the potential for a red warning for limited areas in the west and northwest.

That's my area alright.

Meteorite58 · 08-10-2018 8:11pm

The current ECM charts showing heavy rain initially in the SW/ S and a less amount of rain spreading up over the country , later Fri into Sat showing very heavy rain in the S and SE and showing the SE /E especially wet into Sat ( a whole set of warnings in themselves ).

Again just a guide to what is being shown on the charts atm, subject to change.

GFS showing around 40mm falling in Southern counties in about 24hrs 07.00 Fri to 07.00 Sat on the current charts

Meteorite58 · 08-10-2018 8:22pm

The Jet particularly strong over Ireland on Fri.

Sycamore Tree · 08-10-2018 9:47pm

Joanna gave a very good forecast there at 9pm. She pointed out a 'beast' of a storm on it's way and said it was one to watch alright but it's still 4 days away and could track different ways. Too early to cry wolf until we get more accurate data.

M.T. Cranium · 08-10-2018 10:12pm

Any mention of a potential storm name yet? I suppose there's a slight chance of naming the Wednesday low if it appears to be a threat in Scotland at all. But if there's a list of names available, would be interesting to know what the next name in use will be.

I think the likely evolution of Michael further west is going to keep this one from any large-scale changes in track (in other words the ridge-trough steering set-up is locking in).

Some impacts from remnants of Michael possible around Monday-Tuesday of following week, would not expect models to lock in on that until maybe Thursday or so, either way.

M.T. Cranium · 08-10-2018 10:13pm

Notice at top of page -- We will be carrying out some maintenance work in the datacentre on October 11th between 5am and 9am. Apologies in advance for any disruption.

Let's hope this thing doesn't speed up then.

igCorcaigh · 08-10-2018 10:13pm

Callum I think

https://www.met.ie/storm-names-2018-19-announced

MJohnston · 08-10-2018 10:14pm

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Any mention of a potential storm name yet? I suppose there's a slight chance of naming the Wednesday low if it appears to be a threat in Scotland at all. But if there's a list of names available, would be interesting to know what the next name in use will be.

I think the likely evolution of Michael further west is going to keep this one from any large-scale changes in track (in other words the ridge-trough steering set-up is locking in).

Some impacts from remnants of Michael possible around Monday-Tuesday of following week, would not expect models to lock in on that until maybe Thursday or so, either way.

Callum is next up:

MJohnston · 08-10-2018 10:18pm

One thing I saw about the storm naming recently actually - we have a reciprocal agreement with France/Spain/Portugal to use their storm names if they happen to be affected by one first that then affects us. This shouldn't happen with Potential Callum, but it's not always guaranteed we'll go straight to the next name (even if it isn't an ex-hurricane).

leinad · 08-10-2018 10:58pm

Is the pressure at 954 a major factor in how strong the wind might be?

JanuarySnowstor · 08-10-2018 11:05pm

Just noticed the projected rainfall for Friday and Saturday. Could well make more news than the wind. It looks torrential at times

Harry Palmr · 08-10-2018 11:06pm

Er yes! along with proximity, the track and which side of it you are on (you could be only 100 kms further away and the effects be less severe by some margin), with storm level depressions you tend to get a pronounced tightening of isobars on one side/corner

km79 · 08-10-2018 11:09pm

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

Just noticed the projected rainfall for Friday and Saturday. Could well make more news than the wind. It looks torrential at times

Be grand
It’s mainly the south east
Should ease the drought

Meteorite58 · 08-10-2018 11:13pm

Just looking at ICON 18Z and back in line with the ECM and GFS showing high end warnings across SW, W, NW and N. Very windy elsewhere.

GFS 18Z just out and showing at least Orange warning everywhere, we could be seeing Red warnings along some coastal counties if the models keeps churning out charts like today.

About 72 to 73hrs before strong winds make there way onto the SW coast.

Meteorite58 · 08-10-2018 11:29pm

GFS 18Z showing parts of the S , SE and up through the midlands getting between 40 and 60mm from about 07.00 Fri to 07.00 Sat.

uck51js9zml2yt · 08-10-2018 11:40pm

How bad is Kerry looking with this.
I'm on a height.

Meteorite58 · 08-10-2018 11:54pm

Nicholas Worried Goalkeeper wrote: »

How bad is Kerry looking with this.
I'm on a height.

Going by tonights guidance looks like widespread gusts 110 to 130km/h , coasts especially headlands in S Kerry and Dingle peninsula gusts 130 to 140 km/h ,possibly higher?

Dependent on track and maintaining current projections.

ninebeanrows · 09-10-2018 7:40am

EC with big jog west this AM

sryanbruen · 09-10-2018 7:41am

ECM 0z has lowered the 24-hour rainfall totals relatively so (compared to last night's 12z) for Friday into Saturday in the southeast of Ireland but still very large totals being depicted here. 30mm+ as far north as Down on this run including Louth, Dublin, Meath and Kildare.

Storm Callum - Thursday/Friday 11/12 October 2018 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

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Storm Callum - Thursday/Friday 11/12 October 2018 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST