Convective/Thunderstorm Discussion : 2019 and Winter 2020

Mortelaro · 28-06-2019 12:00pm

pad199207 wrote: »

Oh momma

That line is the 12 mile fishing exclusion zone as a point of reference
So all those strikes near that line should be audible at the coast and visible at this stage

JCX BXC · 28-06-2019 12:03pm

Christ there's some amount of strikes showing up out of that cell.

squarecircles · 28-06-2019 12:06pm

Just herd a rattle of thunder

pad199207 · 28-06-2019 12:08pm

Those around Clifden/Inishboffin areas could be hearing thunder from new cell firing

zell12 · 28-06-2019 12:08pm

Lightning strikes :eek:

km79 · 28-06-2019 12:16pm

Holy moly thank God that missed us

PukkaStukka · 28-06-2019 12:23pm

That cell off Galway is one bad tempered yoke. Had that gone overland it would've caused big problems

zell12 · 28-06-2019 12:24pm

Getting more intense

Say my name · 28-06-2019 12:25pm

Is a rainfall warning warranted for Galway on here?

People are looking at individual cells and expressing relief that it has missed them so far.
But the root cause of the cells is the cold front and as the cold front moves eastwards new cells will be popping up along that front. And going by where they seem to popping up along the front it looks like Galway will be likely hit later on at this point in time.

PukkaStukka · 28-06-2019 12:29pm

Say my name wrote: »

Is a rainfall warning warranted for Galway on here?

People are looking at individual cells and expressing relief that it has missed them so far.
But the root cause of the cells is the cold front and as the cold front moves eastwards new cells will be popping up along that front. And going by where they seem to popping up along the front it looks like Galway will be likely hit later on at this point in time.

Good point. I'm no met expert but I would expect things to lift off once the front starts to cross warm land

Say my name · 28-06-2019 12:47pm

PukkaStukka wrote: »

Good point. I'm no met expert but I would expect things to lift off once the front starts to cross warm land

It is a tough one to decide on.

Just by looking at the radar loop those cells that were off the Aran islands seem to have been caused by orographic lifting from the Kerry mountains along the front?

The front is currently east of those now.

JCX BXC · 28-06-2019 12:54pm

I note that there's some showers building north of Galway city around headford.

Say my name · 28-06-2019 1:19pm

It kind of looks like that's all the action over for today.

Storm 10 · 28-06-2019 1:23pm

Say that's the end of our Thunder threat nothing showing anywhere now just that big storm heading away

Oneiric 3 · 28-06-2019 1:31pm

squarecircles · 28-06-2019 1:36pm

second opportunity this week of experiencing major thunderstorms,safe to say we wont be seeing these setups for a very very long time again.

frustrating to see the thunderstorms dance around Ireland.

km79 · 28-06-2019 1:36pm

Say my name wrote: »

Is a rainfall warning warranted for Galway on here?

People are looking at individual cells and expressing relief that it has missed them so far.
But the root cause of the cells is the cold front and as the cold front moves eastwards new cells will be popping up along that front. And going by where they seem to popping up along the front it looks like Galway will be likely hit later on at this point in time.

They are moving /have moved away the other direction already

Comhrá · 28-06-2019 1:42pm

Ah well....as yet another memorable week of thunderstorm busts draws to a close.

Storm 10 · 28-06-2019 2:14pm

Last night after the news ME showed the front going from the West to the East bringing the storms to the West Coast yet they seem to have gone in the opposite direction, absolutely nothing happening in the Country at present. Am I right in this or did they get it wrong

Reversal · 28-06-2019 2:32pm

Storm 10 wrote: »

Last night after the news ME showed the front going from the West to the East bringing the storms to the West Coast yet they seem to have gone in the opposite direction, absolutely nothing happening in the Country at present. Am I right in this or did they get it wrong

The direction of travel of the front is not the same as the direction of travel of the individual cells. In a cold front the wind direction can change sharply at the front but the cells are kicked off ahead of the front

pad199207 · 28-06-2019 3:17pm

Met Eireann have backed away now from any thunderstorms this afternoon.

Storm 10 · 28-06-2019 3:23pm

pad199207 wrote: »

Met Eireann have backed away now from any thunderstorms this afternoon.

Got it way wrong for today

pad199207 · 28-06-2019 3:27pm

Storm 10 wrote: »

Got it way wrong for today

Wasn’t hugely wrong it’s just they were about 50 or so miles too west I suppose.

Next chance is for a new round of thunderstorms to develop overnight tonight in the Celtic sea and to move up over Eastern areas.

That will probably be a bust too.

ZX7R · 28-06-2019 3:29pm

Rougies wrote: »

Some level of disregard for legibility you have going on there, took me a while to decipher the question!

Yes they are false returns. Easy way to tell is have a look at https://en.sat24.com/en. If there are no clouds, there is no rain or thunderstorm.

Sorry sometimes I find it difficult to convey in words what my mind does be thinking.
Thank you for the confirmation of the false return.

JCX BXC · 28-06-2019 3:30pm

Storm 10 wrote: »

Got it way wrong for today

Jaysus tis like some are trying to pin something on Met Éireann, as if they need to be blamed for something!

They never said there WILL be thunderstorms, they said there could possibly be, which to be fair was very accurate as the atmospheric conditions nearby were correct, evidence of this are the massive cells that got going just a few kilometers west of land.

leahyl · 28-06-2019 3:39pm

JCX BXC wrote: »

Jaysus tis like some are trying to pin something on Met Éireann, as if they need to be blamed for something!

They never said there WILL be thunderstorms, they said there could possibly be, which to be fair was very accurate as the atmospheric conditions nearby were correct, evidence of this are the massive cells that got going just a few kilometers west of land.

I agree, I can never understand why people are always looking for a opportunity to blame Met Eireann - they are more often than not correct and it’s their website I always go to for my forecasts, I don’t pay attention to accuweather or anything else.

squarecircles · 28-06-2019 4:03pm

It was thrilling watching the sky this morning, the clouds were rotating overhead, moving in various directions, you could tell there was something vicious not too far away.

squarecircles · 28-06-2019 4:06pm

highdef · 28-06-2019 4:31pm

North Kildare, near the meath border and the sky is looking increasingly dark to my southwest. Additionally, looking at sat24, it looks like something convective is happening in that same area.... Mid to North Kildare. Possibly something being kicked off by the Wicklow mountains?

Storm 10 · 28-06-2019 4:33pm

Just a question for the experts here if that storm today had a direct hit on Galway would we have been looking at a Red Warning for rain/hail and lightning, there would bound to have been a lot of lightning damage looking at it this morning.

Mortelaro · 28-06-2019 4:40pm

Storm 10 wrote: »

Just a question for the experts here if that storm today had a direct hit on Galway would we have been looking at a Red Warning for rain/hail and lightning, there would bound to have been a lot of lightning damage looking at it this morning.

There wouldn't have been time for a red warning
Rainfall rates would have brought localised flooding and there would have been widespread power outages from the lightning, only criticism comes from a 'during event's warning anyway if you follow?
Enough information was given out anyway suggesting possible localised flooding both today yesterday and the day before for people not to have been caught unawares if you follow

Jpmarn · 28-06-2019 6:11pm

No mention of risk of thunder showers tonight on the latest forecast on met.ie.

pad199207 · 28-06-2019 6:41pm

Keep an eye around the North of Biscay

highdef · 28-06-2019 7:17pm

Another line of convective cloud has developed in the past 20 minutes in the east midlands. Probably won't come to much, if anything but like earlier, it's worth keeping an eye on.

Kermit.de.frog · 28-06-2019 7:23pm

pad199207 wrote: »

Keep an eye around the North of Biscay

Indeed, a noisy start to the day tomorrow possible in parts of the east.

hirlamuk-1-19-0.png?28-17

Mortelaro · 28-06-2019 7:31pm

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Indeed, a noisy start to the day tomorrow possible in the east.

I Expect that to correct eastward in the morning with the focus closer to the east coast in the wake of the earlier fronts momentum, let's see

Meteorite58 · 28-06-2019 8:15pm

That was some storm today. Interesting that the ECM predicted a big storm which happened but did not get the track or exact location right. Predicted timing was quite good. AROME got the track of the precipitation right but underestimated the intensity. Checked Met Eireann rainfall prediction charts last night and they were very similar to the AROME.

Cloud top height at 13.30

Storm 10 · 28-06-2019 8:27pm

How can there be so much lightning activity in that storm it's still as intense as ever off the North West Coast what is feeding all that lightning .

highdef · 28-06-2019 8:30pm

Looks like things are about to kick off in Biscay. Good bit of convection has begun recently.

PukkaStukka · 28-06-2019 8:30pm

Storm 10 wrote: »

How can there be so much lightning activity in that storm it's still as intense as ever off the North West Coast what is feeding all that lightning .

Huge convection and lots of ice in the cloud

Storm 10 · 28-06-2019 8:33pm

If that had hit any populated area there would have been a lot of buildings damaged by lightning, I have never seen anything like it and probably never will again

PukkaStukka · 28-06-2019 8:41pm

It was a mini version of 1985

Mortelaro · 28-06-2019 8:46pm

Storm 10 wrote: »

How can there be so much lightning activity in that storm it's still as intense as ever off the North West Coast what is feeding all that lightning .

Record high 850 temps and a cold Atlantic

PukkaStukka · 28-06-2019 8:52pm

A streamer is running north from Malin Head / Lough Swilly. It has produced some sparks, albeit well of the coast

Donegal Storm · 28-06-2019 9:09pm

Storm 10 wrote: »

If that had hit any populated area there would have been a lot of buildings damaged by lightning, I have never seen anything like it and probably never will again

There're storms as intense as that on the continent almost daily at this time of year, rare to see one so close by but the storm itself was nothing unusual

Some thundery looking skies here all evening with a lot of wavy instability in the cloud base but nothing much happening

Meteorite58 · 28-06-2019 9:20pm

ECM showing a good chance of thunderstorms from early, perhaps around 6am in the S to SE ( more the SE ) and spreading up towards the E into the early afternoon.

JanuarySnowstor · 28-06-2019 9:41pm

Meteorite58 wrote: »

ECM showing a good chance of thunderstorms from early, perhaps around 6am in the S to SE ( more the SE ) and spreading up towards the E into the early afternoon.

The ecm has been woeful with ppn charts all week. In contrast the gfs has been doing very well

Kermit.de.frog · 28-06-2019 10:41pm

GFS 18z has the plume right up the east coast in the latter 1/3 of the night.

Nothing particularly heavy precip wise but still the potential for elevated cells.

Hirlam showing more intense precipitation potential.

hirlamuk-1-19-0.png?28-17

Storm 10 · 28-06-2019 10:44pm

Any chance of Thunder in the West tomorrow

Kermit.de.frog · 28-06-2019 11:06pm

They'll speak about the storm approaching the, eh, Faroe Island's for decades to come :troll:

https://en.sat24.com/en

Convective/Thunderstorm Discussion : 2019 and Winter 2020

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