Convective/Thunderstorm Discussion : 2019 and Winter 2020

Iancar29

Meteorite58 wrote: »

Scratching my head wondering why we didnt see more sferics in the above mentioned areas of interest today. Tweeted Convectiveweather.co.uk and they responded below.


https://twitter.com/Meteorite58/status/1140739286930792448

https://twitter.com/convectivewx/status/1140741452051505152

Lack of proper insolation. A few degrees warmer and a bit of a cap to hold back the weaker cells from forming would've helped a lot. It all went off too easily and therefore the energy wasn't enough to give HCLs IMO. As too the lack of hail reports.

Storm 10

There was lightning and thunder in Bognor Regis on this webcam it has sound.

https://www.bognorregisbeach.co.uk/live

Meteorite58

Cells have fired up and heading across the Channel and forming in the SE of the UK, warnings in place.

Might catch some lightning soon on the webcam posted by Storm 10 above.



https://twitter.com/metoffice/status/1140975668156674048

https://twitter.com/StormchaserUKEU/status/1141061436048838656

Meteorite58

Cell as seen on Satellite above SW of Paris, captured from the ground in the tweet below.

https://twitter.com/Proradise/status/1141063299536175105

esposito

Meteorite58 wrote: »

Cell as seen on Satellite above SW of Paris, captured from the ground in the tweet below.

https://twitter.com/Proradise/status/1141063299536175105

Like a mushroom that

Storm 10

Skyline webcams will be good tonight in the South of the UK, some decent strikes on a webcam at Le Harve could not copy link

lolie

Storm 10 wrote: »

Skyline webcams will be good tonight in the South of the UK, some decent strikes on a webcam at Le Harve could not copy link

This one?
https://www.lehavretourisme.com/en/live-webcam

Storm 10

lolie wrote: »

This one?
https://www.lehavretourisme.com/en/live-webcam

Big flashes showing up now on that camera

lolie

Storm 10 wrote: »

Big flashes showing up now on that camera

Yeah getting juicy now.
Should be plenty of action on this one in Cabourg.

Storm 10

Storm 10 wrote: »

Big flashes showing up now on that camera

Crazy lightning now non stop

Storm 10

Lightning now on Skyline webcam for Brighton pier there going to get hammered tonight

lolie

Brighton Pier lightning
https://www.skylinewebcams.com/en/webcam/united-kingdom/england/brighton/brighton-pier.html

Oscar Bravo

Some nice bolts in that lolie

Storm 10

Bognor staring now love to be in the South of the UK tonight

https://www.bognorregisbeach.co.uk/live[/quote]

Jupiter Mulligan

Eastbourne Pier - almost overhead: https://www.webcamtaxi.com/en/england/east-sussex/eastbourne-pier.html

Meteorite58

https://twitter.com/danholley_/status/1141096903674933248

lolie

Oscar Bravo wrote: »

Some nice bolts in that lolie

Yeah, lovely fork a few minutes ago

darragh o meara

Currently about 50k from LaRochelle in France, huge amount of activity there at the moment, hoping that some of the activity there will make its way up to me soon

Meteorite58

Some storm.

lolie

Meteorite58 wrote: »

Some storm.

Looks like its still growing in size.
https://en.sat24.com/en/gb/km

Meteorite58

Huge storm, leading edge starting to move off the SE coast near Faversham, thousands of strikes.

Drumpot

darragh o meara wrote: »

Currently about 50k from LaRochelle in France, huge amount of activity there at the moment, hoping that some of the activity there will make its way up to me soon

I’m on a few Kms up from La Rochelle and we’ve been fairly protected thus far.

There was tornado warning and all but we seem to be in a pocket that’s avoided anything yet. Although there are storms forecast over the night.

squarecircles

in all my time looking at the thunderstorm risk charts on the GFS iv never seen such a high chance of activity over Ireland. So rare to see the bright red/orange/yellow shadings over Ireland. Is nobody remotely excited? Met Eireann also highlighting the risk of some thunderstorms as early as sunday night. 25 degrees at midnight in Ireland !? i think the gfs has gone mad.

MidMan25

To me these charts are about as exciting as it gets. Proper thunderstorms are even rarer than snow here. I'm off work next week and staying in Ireland. Not a bad week to pick hopefully!

ZX7R

squarecircles wrote: »

in all my time looking at the thunderstorm risk charts on the GFS iv never seen such a high chance of activity over Ireland. So rare to see the bright red/orange/yellow shadings over Ireland. Is nobody remotely excited? Met Eireann also highlighting the risk of some thunderstorms as early as sunday night. 25 degrees at midnight in Ireland !? i think the gfs has gone mad.

I will get excited when I am standing outside looking at it, just too many variables in forecasting thunder storms ,more so than any other weather extremes we get, but I live in hope...

Iancar29

Sorry to burst the bubble folks but these kind of charts appear at least once a year when theres a warm plume in FI. When it comes to forecasting thunderstorms in Ireland and all the factors needed to be in the right place, I don't bat an eyelid for anything further than +72hrs. This thread should really be confined to that in all honesty. Good signals for the warmth to start off with, lets go with that in the normal thread and come back here when we get a more accurate time frame.

pad199207

Iancar29 wrote: »

Sorry to burst the bubble folks but these kind of charts appear at least once a year when theres a warm plume in FI. When it comes to forecasting thunderstorms in Ireland and all the factors needed to be in the right place, I don't bat an eyelid for anything further than +72hrs. This thread should really be confined to that in all honesty. Good signals for the warmth to start off with, lets go with that in the normal thread and come back here when we get a more accurate time frame.

I do have to agree. I will say this though cross model agreement coming into play now which is very encouraging.

If things play out exactly as being shown above, the storms coming into the South and East from Biscay and Western England/Wales could be fantastic.

Iancar29

pad199207 wrote: »

I do have to agree. I will say this though cross model agreement coming into play now which is very encouraging.

If things play out exactly as being shown above, the storms coming into the South and East from Biscay and Western England/Wales could be fantastic.

Cross model agreement on where the ridge is positioning yes and bringing the warm air. Thats good to see. That does not mean there'll be storms though.

You can have the best instability of the year in place but something as simple as a residual cloud cover will restrict anything from firing and cloud cover is probably one of the hardest things for models to predict.

pad199207

Iancar29 wrote: »

Cross model agreement on where the ridge is positioning yes and bringing the warm air. Thats good to see. That does not mean there'll be storms though.

You can have the best instability of the year in place but something as simple as a residual cloud cover will restrict anything from firing and cloud cover is probably one of the hardest things for models to predict.

All very important points Ian. Just like those off the scale CAPE charts that got churned out today, means nothing unless there’s a trigger.

jimmynokia

Bring on the storms then next week.. Is this our resident IAN featured here?
https://www.thejournal.ie/irish-photography-instagram-4688770-Jun2019/

Here is a shot i took today [URL="[img]https://i.imgur.com/cU14au1.jpg[/img]"][/URL]