Off Topic Thread 5.0

21-01-2021 11:53am

sydthebeat wrote: »

if 85 reps decided not to show up on the day.. then 231 votes to impeach would be enough as it would be 2/3rds majority

Think you might be getting congress and the senate mixed up. They need 2/3 of the senate to convict. They only needed a majority in congress.

sydthebeat · 21-01-2021 11:58am

Yep, got my houses mixed up

21-01-2021 11:59am

[Deleted User] wrote: »

The former senate majority leader has openly said that Trump provoked the mob and whilst Trump is a more visible and popular figure - McConnell wields much more 'real' power amongst establishment Republicans, Governors, Mayors etc. McConnel decides who gets access to the bigger donors.

I don't like using pop culture to make a point but as we were discussing it recently - Trump is Joffrey to McConnell's Tywin. Trump constantly has to talk about and promote himself, McConnell makes all the political decisions for the GOP however. If he is saying Trump has responsibility for the riots, he'll know he has the votes already.

Regardless, I think it will come from a point of selfishness and that's why it will happen soon. The GOP will want to have more control of the party platform in 2 years and very much so in 4 years. The mid terms get closer every day so the sooner they remove Trump from the equation (in terms of his ability to run) the longer they have to move the narrative. Trump is already talking about launching a 'Patriots party' - convicting him in the senate will end that movement on day one.

There are other factors. Trump has been entirely neutered since Twitter removed him - if he lost the ability to speak, it would be less damaging than losing twitter. His popularity has also tanked since the riots. If the November election was held again today I think his turnout would be notably lower.

Similarly - I find it hard to believe that there isn't a lot more to come out about Trumps time in office. The GOP moving now to help convict him, somewhat divorces their association with any criminality or worse that might become public in the time between now and 2023.

Lastly - I think Biden is going to be a popular enough president. They had to resort to smearing his son in the election as he is a very difficult character to attack. In two years time he'll have probably gotten covid under control, gotten a good vaccination program going, created a wider welfare safety net and gotten the economy stabilised. If the GOP are still wrestling with Trump for control of the Republican base they'll struggle to gain seats in either house and might well lose more to the Democrats.

I think you've got the blinkers on a bit. Have a look at some US right wing media or gallup polls after the riots. There is still a disturbing amount of support for Trump. Far too many republicans believe the election was stolen. I'd love to see trump convicted but I'll believe it when I see it. McConnell hasn't said anything concrete yet. It's all rumours as far as I know. Republicans have a huge decision to make whether they want to stop Trump running again in the future whilst also enraging their base.

I've no reason to believe Biden will be a popular president. He's a continuation of Obama and Clinton, which is exactly what Trump was the antithesis too. He's not even a great candidate from a democratic point of view, he ran on not being Trump. All the executive orders he's signing right now, while I agree with them, I don't think bodes well for the US. It will be like a seesaw with each president coming in undoing what the last did, further dividing the country. Biden has got a huge job in front of him, frankly I think it's an impossible task.

21-01-2021 12:22pm

Deleted User wrote: »

I think you've got the blinkers on a bit. Have a look at some US right wing media or gallup polls after the riots. There is still a disturbing amount of support for Trump. Far too many republicans believe the election was stolen. I'd love to see trump convicted but I'll believe it when I see it. McConnell hasn't said anything concrete yet. It's all rumours as far as I know. Republicans have a huge decision to make whether they want to stop Trump running again in the future whilst also enraging their base.

I absolutely could have blinkers on - but I have watched some of the right wing media coverage and whilst they initially tried to point to the likes of antifa as culprits, many have been quite condemning also, even some of the hard right opinion commentators on late night fox. As for polling - Trump has dropped from 44% approval in December to 38% now. His disapproval has soared from 51% at the election to 58% now. Those dials are still moving and he has no way of connecting to voters at the moment.

McConnell has said that Trump provoked the riots and he said that from the chamber floor. Does that mean he will definitely vote to convict? No, it doesn't - but if it you were looking to see which way he was going, it's more suggestive of a vote to convict than not. Again - not a guarantee, but an indicator of which direction he is leaning and I don't think he'd say anything if he didn't have the votes.

Deleted User wrote: »

I've no reason to believe Biden will be a popular president. He's a continuation of Obama and Clinton, which is exactly what Trump was the antithesis too. He's not even a great candidate from a democratic point of view, he ran on not being Trump. All the executive orders he's signing right now, while I agree with them, I don't think bodes well for the US. It will be like a seesaw with each president coming in undoing what the last did, further dividing the country. Biden has got a huge job in front of him, frankly I think it's an impossible task.

Obama and Clinton were both popular presidents. Clinton had 55% popularity when he left office. Obama had 49% when he left and it's gone up quite a bit since. Trump never broke 50% approval. Obama's highest approval was 67%. Trump's average is the lowest ever recorded at an average of 41% over his presidency and as I said - tanking very hard now.

Biden isn't a great candidate - he's an incredibly safe candidate but he's a long time senator and knows the inner workings of house politics. It's going to be a 'safe pair of hands' administration and I think people will respond to that well, especially if he brings the pandemic to heel.

I'm 60/40 now that Trump will be convicted by the senate within 3 months.

Podge_irl · 21-01-2021 12:33pm

Trump was not the antithesis to Obama's policies and it wasn't his policies that riled up a certain segment of America.

swiwi_ · 21-01-2021 2:57pm

No point sitting on the fence. Senate will confirm impeachment. You heard it here first.

Interested Observer · 21-01-2021 3:40pm

I'll believe Trump gets convicted when I see it, but from McConnell I think both his decision not to bring the trial to the Senate and leave it to the Dems, and secondly his relative silence on this, is fairly telling. There is far more chance than last time.

And I feel dirty now for even sounding like I'm giving McConnell credit for anything because he is a vile human being.

Bazzo · 21-01-2021 4:02pm

A somewhat, uh... interesting take on things.

mfceiling · 21-01-2021 9:15pm

I bought a new glass screen and the tools to change it for my last Samsung phone.

Phone was only a few months old so I thought I'll take a shot at that. Tried today and all was going well until I tried to remove the screen. I kinda broke the LCD screen behind it....like made shíte of it.

That's why I feel those kids that are working in the sweat shops in Asia are worth every penny of the dollar a day or whatever it is they get. It's no wonder they get kids to make them. Their tiny little fingers have much more dexterity for working on those intricate parts. I'll never hear a bad word said about their work or their working environments again.

The Inbetween is mine · 21-01-2021 9:24pm

mfceiling wrote: »

I bought a new glass screen and the tools to change it for my last Samsung phone.

Phone was only a few months old so I thought I'll take a shot at that. Tried today and all was going well until I tried to remove the screen. I kinda broke the LCD screen behind it....like made shíte of it.

That's why I feel those kids that are working in the sweat shops in Asia are worth every penny of the dollar a day or whatever it is they get. It's no wonder they get kids to make them. Their tiny little fingers have much more dexterity for working on those intricate parts. I'll never hear a bad word said about their work or their working environments again.

https://tenor.com/view/ooh-cat-shrek-oh-oooh-gif-5934095

Squidgy Black · 21-01-2021 9:39pm

mfceiling wrote: »

I bought a new glass screen and the tools to change it for my last Samsung phone.

Phone was only a few months old so I thought I'll take a shot at that. Tried today and all was going well until I tried to remove the screen. I kinda broke the LCD screen behind it....like made shíte of it.

That's why I feel those kids that are working in the sweat shops in Asia are worth every penny of the dollar a day or whatever it is they get. It's no wonder they get kids to make them. Their tiny little fingers have much more dexterity for working on those intricate parts. I'll never hear a bad word said about their work or their working environments again.

They've made it more or less impossible to replace screens these days, you usually have to buy the full glass and lcd screen assembly now because of the glue.

Most places charge a few hundred quid these days for screen repairs it's outrageous.

stephen_n · 21-01-2021 10:28pm

Watching the mental gymnastics of half the Qanon followers and the devastation of the other half today has been quite amusing.

mfceiling · 22-01-2021 12:09am

Squidgy Black wrote: »

They've made it more or less impossible to replace screens these days, you usually have to buy the full glass and lcd screen assembly now because of the glue.

Most places charge a few hundred quid these days for screen repairs it's outrageous.

It was only £13 for a new glass screen so I thought I'd risk it. The glue was a fecker alright. Phone only cost me €120 and they wanted the same for a new screen!!

Interested Observer · 22-01-2021 11:11am

stephen_n wrote: »

Watching the mental gymnastics of half the Qanon followers and the devastation of the other half today has been quite amusing.

There's an account called Coping MAGA on twitter that just makes fun of these people, it really is entertaining.

Bazzo · 22-01-2021 3:29pm

Just got round to watching the last 2 episodes of season 2 of the Mandalorian.

It's cheesy fan service central, but to be honest done so well that it's not off-putting. As someone who liked the original trilogy as a kid but is hardly obsessed with the star wars franchise I'm finding this series very enjoyable.

22-01-2021 3:37pm

Bazzo wrote: »

Just got round to watching the last 2 episodes of season 2 of the Mandalorian.

It's cheesy fan service central, but to be honest done so well that it's not off-putting. As someone who liked the original trilogy as a kid but is hardly obsessed with the star wars franchise I'm finding this series very enjoyable.

Absolutely. At times it's too conventional to be great, but it's such a high quality production that even the weaker episodes are enjoyable.

Given how dire most star wars content has been since the original trilogy I'm happy enough with it and I can watch it with my eldest kid so even better.

mfceiling · 22-01-2021 4:38pm

The impeachment is starting.

22-01-2021 5:50pm

mfceiling wrote: »

The impeachment is starting.

Trump will be convicted.

There is no political benefit to this given the time between now and the next series of elections. Democrats know the votes are there from the GOP.

I doubt there will even be a defence.

The Inbetween is mine · 22-01-2021 5:55pm

I don't think he'll be impeached....too many top Republicans have flip-flopped in the media and are saying they, and Trump are blameless for the events in the Capitol Building.
They've regrouped and are looking to save their man for 2024

Buer · 22-01-2021 7:52pm

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Trump will be convicted.

There is no political benefit to this given the time between now and the next series of elections. Democrats know the votes are there from the GOP.

I doubt there will even be a defence.

You honestly think the Republican Party are going to stand by and make Trump the first president in American history to be convicted without even a defence?

They've already tried to delay the start and cast their doubts on the validity of the trial. It's not the absolute foregone conclusion that the first impeachment was but getting the two thirds is a huge ask.

The bookies have it as 1/5 at the moment for no conviction which is fair.

swiwi_ · 22-01-2021 8:02pm

I heard the odds were 1/3. Then Venjur posted there “will” be a conviction and they moved out to 1/5.

Neil3030 · 22-01-2021 9:44pm

Georgia, that the dems just flipped, is known as the "peach state".

Surely headline writers are all over this?

swiwi_ · 22-01-2021 10:45pm

For something a bit different, kingdom on Netflix is pretty decent. Not really into zombie stuff but the series is decent despite that. Cinematography is first rate.

Buer · 23-01-2021 9:39am

AZ vaccine delivery set to be down up to 60% to the EU from initially reported numbers due to production issues serving their European distribution. That will have a significant impact on our vaccine roll out.

Ireland had been planning on receiving approximately 600k doses from AZ by April. This is potentially going to be cut by more than half.

Dubinusa · 23-01-2021 4:28pm

Just got my 1st dose of the vaccine. The follow up is in 4 weeks. Hopefully this vaccine works.

Just watched a couple of seasons of prime suspect! Very good show. I have been watching a lot of the British shows lately. I think they are better than American shows. Last week I finished an Irish show, "Blood". It was decent and there's 2 seasons.
My next venture will be Law and Order, UK.
Any suggestions on British or Irish shows?

23-01-2021 4:42pm

swiwi_ wrote: »

For something a bit different, kingdom on Netflix is pretty decent. Not really into zombie stuff but the series is decent despite that. Cinematography is first rate.

It's a great spin on the zombie idea setting it in feudal Japan. I'll have to go back and finish the second season. Forgot about it.

Paul Smeenus · 23-01-2021 4:51pm

swiwi_ wrote: »

For something a bit different, kingdom on Netflix is pretty decent. Not really into zombie stuff but the series is decent despite that. Cinematography is first rate.

I really enjoyed the first series - will have to watch the second.

Garda Kenny · 23-01-2021 7:08pm

Dubinusa wrote: »

Just got my 1st dose of the vaccine. The follow up is in 4 weeks. Hopefully this vaccine works.

Just watched a couple of seasons of prime suspect! Very good show. I have been watching a lot of the British shows lately. I think they are better than American shows. Last week I finished an Irish show, "Blood". It was decent and there's 2 seasons.
My next venture will be Law and Order, UK.
Any suggestions on British or Irish shows?

A close family member watches Silent Witness and In the Line of Duty and swears by them. Personally the only English stuff I can watch is Great Continental Railway Journeys and Rick Stein.

Great way to learn about countries around the world they both travel to even if Portillo is a Tory. Stein is a good Exeter boy supports the Chiefs and has beer with nearly every meal he tries.

I heard the Wine Show was good. I watched the first episode and almost puked. Rhys is a prize twat.

thomond2006 · 23-01-2021 7:39pm

Keith Higgins retired. Another exceptional Mayo footballer with no All-Ireland medal.

SqueakyKneecap · 23-01-2021 7:41pm

thomond2006 wrote: »

Keith Higgins retired. Another exceptional Mayo footballer with no All-Ireland medal.

The Ollie Canning of football. As good a defender as there'll ever be but just didn't have the forwards in front of him to win the big one.

Off Topic Thread 5.0

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