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Winter 2019/2020 - General Discussion

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  • Registered Users Posts: 3,131 ✭✭✭Rebelbrowser


    Happy Christmas from the CFS!:)

    19122512_2100.gif


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 28 Molly007


    Serious amount of berries on the holly this year. May be an indication of things to come this winter. (Cold)


    Why would the amount of berries indicate cold to come ???


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,469 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    Molly007 wrote: »
    Why would the amount of berries indicate cold to come ???

    It's just one of those weather folklore with no scientific evidence. I seen a fair bit of them last year too.


  • Registered Users Posts: 32,634 ✭✭✭✭Graces7


    sryanbruen wrote: »
    It's just one of those weather folklore with no scientific evidence. I seen a fair bit of them last year too.

    Young sceptic! ;)


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,161 ✭✭✭PokeHerKing


    Gonzo wrote: »
    Yep, we rarely get more than 1 or 2 decent winters every 10 years. The 1980s were a bit of an exception. Most winters are Atlantic driven with a few brief north-westerlies delivering wet snow showers to the west and north. 2010 and 2018 of course brought plenty of snow, so right now we are not due another decent winter for some time. However there is no guarantee what any winter brings, we could get lucky this year.

    I think we're due another one soon, grand solar minimum etc. Hopefully this year!


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  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 3,126 ✭✭✭Snow Garden


    sryanbruen wrote: »
    It's just one of those weather folklore with no scientific evidence. I seen a fair bit of them last year too.

    I used to believe that stuff too but it is nonsense. Last year was unreal for the crop of blackberries, sloe berries, hawthorn berries, crab apples and hazelnuts but the winter was fierce mild.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,010 ✭✭✭John.Icy


    Regards the whole solar minimum thing - if there is to be a link between colder winters for us then maybe this year isn't the one to look for. Last minimum there was a bit of a lag between the max of the minimum in 2008 till the cold of 2010 (albeit 09/10 was excellent too considering the usual offerings). Sunspot activity was recovering/ed in 2010.

    2011 total: 2 days (<1%)
    2010 total: 51 days (14%)
    2009 total: 260 days (71%)
    2008 total: 268 days (73%)

    More recent years;

    2019 total: 219 days (74%)
    2018 total: 221 days (61%)
    2017 total: 104 days (28%)

    Better discussion elsewhere regards if any of the sunspot stuff is causal due to other minimums being clouded (literally eh?!) by volcanic eruptions etc. Basically don't pin hopes for a upcoming winters on sunspot counts.


  • Registered Users Posts: 16,533 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    image.jpg.4ba9bfba38ec9986b2335055c2728930.jpg

    It would be good if this overall pattern could be maintained, but it will more than likely change for the worse


  • Registered Users Posts: 471 ✭✭KingdomRushed


    It's a dangerous time of year for model watching. You can get caught up with absolutely phantom output. I've been following the models now for about 10 years, and if there is one thing they do without fail, it is churn out eye candy in the run up to winter. For some reason, at this period of the year, when the polar vortex is establishing itself, the models seem to hiccup and consistently model greenland and scandinavian blocking which never actually comes to pass. I see the same patterns this week. But normal business will soon return i expect, with the usual stormy conditions for our neighbourhood.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,668 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    It's a dangerous time of year for model watching. You can get caught up with absolutely phantom output. I've been following the models now for about 10 years, and if there is one thing they do without fail, it is churn out eye candy in the run up to winter. For some reason, at this period of the year, when the polar vortex is establishing itself, the models seem to hiccup and consistently model greenland and scandinavian blocking which never actually comes to pass. I see the same patterns this week. But normal business will soon return i expect, with the usual stormy conditions for our neighbourhood.

    the latest runs are definitely staying on the cold side, temperatures look like being between 1 and 3 degree below average for the next 1 to 2 weeks if this plays off. We saw nothing like this at any stage last winter.

    ens_image.php?geoid=64981&var=201&run=0&date=2019-10-24&model=gfs&member=ENS&bw=1

    If this plays out, expect plenty of frosty nights and days will be chilly and fires will be lit! It's probably still a bit too early for lying snow in reality, but at least it will feel a bit more seasonal. Fairly certain the mountains will see some snow cover over the next 2 weeks, even if just temporary.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 13,469 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    What I find interesting with the current model runs that despite it being blocked and cold, the stratosphere remains cold and looks set to get even colder which should mean an increase in the mean zonal winds and an intensified jet stream. Strat and trop disconnecting unless we see a dramatic change in the outlook which is often the case in this country!


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,131 ✭✭✭Rebelbrowser


    I am going to start my usual White Christmas thread on Friday (I always waiting until 1 November to do that) but its worth mentioning that for a good few days now the CFS has been modelling a white Christmas. See a post a few days back already. Today's CFS shows the below. Maybe, just maybe....

    19122500_2900.gif


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,469 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    I said I would look at winters following exceptional mild ones in Ireland and this is what the reanalysis shows of these winters combined (with the exceptions of 2016-17 and 2017-18 following on from 2015-16 and 2016-17 respectively as NOAA/NCEP 20th Century Reanalysis only goes up to 2015) for Europe, both from a 500mb height perspective and a MSLP perspective.

    There is not a lot we can pull from the 500mb height anomaly besides weak below average heights around the North Atlantic and a strong anticyclone sitting to the north of Russia. There is also below average heights over the med into North Africa. A strange chart.

    nrhYuxs.png

    A lot more information can be interpreted from the MSLP anomaly however with a strong Icelandic Low driving in the westerly winds across the North Atlantic but the two elements described in the 500mb height anomaly still are evident here, the high over Russia and the low in the Mediterranean. There is a lack of Euro High ridging from the Azores. This is a very wet and zonal chart but not the average mild and westerly driven one you see. The way I see it is that instead of the lows going west to east across northern Europe, they would attempt to dive southeastward at times. There'd be the possibility of the high to retrogress into Scandinavia I would have thought but such moments would be temporary with the active Atlantic.

    rUtAAbm.png

    This looks very similar to that of the pattern that Winter 1938-39 had :cool: . Two differences though include the Western Europe cyclone in the reanalysis above of the winters following exceptional mild ones being more over Iceland compared to over Ireland in 1938-39 and the extension of the high in 1938-39 from Russia was closer to the Arctic and was larger also (although this probably down to the severe cold spell in mid-December 1938 so this likely skewing it somewhat).

    1cYFo1o.png

    Anyway, this little analysis was just for a bit of craic but a bit coincidental how it shared similarities with 1938-39, a winter I mentioned only recently.

    There continues to be the signal of an intensified stratospheric polar vortex during the first half of November, whilst being quite strong already, but the troposphere remains disconnected with a lot of blocking showing in the northern latitudes. This blocking has been a recurring theme all the way back to second half of April when the weather went unsettled following the warm Easter.

    If the troposphere and stratosphere reconnect, we should see the NAO go strongly positive which is usually associated with stormy, mild to very mild and wet but currently no signal of that all. Instead, the first week of November is looking a bit on the cool and wet side and NAO on the relative weak negative side.

    bbyTgFm.png

    North Atlantic SSTs are mainly on the warm side generally with very little cooler than average regions besides an area between 40-60N. Not much sign on the tripole front at this point in time.

    anomnight.10.28.2019.gif


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,235 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    I used to believe that stuff too but it is nonsense. Last year was unreal for the crop of blackberries, sloe berries, hawthorn berries, crab apples and hazelnuts but the winter was fierce mild.
    Perhaps so for us in central heated homes, but maybe not so much for the wee burdies.

    New Moon



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,469 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    To conclude the October snow advancement index (SAI) for this season, this October had an above average SAI. The chart below by the World Climate Service shows the correlation between the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and Eurasian snow cover advancement through October. N.B. SAI is inverse on this graph so negative numbers represent above average years whilst positive numbers represent below average years. Meanwhile, positive numbers represent a positive AO so low pressure over the Arctic and negative numbers represent a negative AO so high pressure over the Arctic.

    Whilst this was a good predictor back in the early years of this decade for the winter, now the correlation is completely gone with every season since 2014 having an above average SAI but also +AO vast majority of the time. The theory by Cohen and Jones (2011) stated that above average SAI through October is an indication for +AO in the following winter. This has just not happened in the past 5 years for whatever reason.

    P1zNCit.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 32,634 ✭✭✭✭Graces7


    I used to believe that stuff too but it is nonse nse. Last year was unreal for the crop of blackberries, sloe berries, hawthorn berries, crab apples and hazelnuts but the winter was fierce mild.

    Nature is never " nonsense"; far more logical than we are. A heavy crop bears testimony to a good season. Even this year, an excellent crop. which ensures that the wild life will fare well whatever the weather brings. And fare equally well next year.
    So whether the weather be foul or fair this winter. nature provides. A far better forecaster and provider than any of us!
    Someone once told me off for picking berries saying they are for the birds. As I told her, we are "birds" too and this year as always, plenty left for everyone

    Whatever we face this winter. my cupboards are well stocked.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,473 ✭✭✭Jpmarn


    In the farming community winter has set in early this year. Most cows and cattle have been housed within the last couple of weeks. Fortunately we have bumper fodder crops. Last year fodder was scarcer due to drought conditions and a late spring. Cattle weren’t housed until late November and there was plenty of grass by late February this year. This coming winter could be much longer than last winter.


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,469 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    I see Murr is going off with the hyping again on Netweather :pac:


  • Registered Users Posts: 598 ✭✭✭Captain Snow


    sryanbruen wrote: »
    I see Murr is going off with the hyping again on Netweather :pac:

    fCC6rlV.png

    ZGgqSmb.png

    BalEm2D.png


    :D:D:D


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 32,688 ✭✭✭✭ Kailyn Tasteless Keyhole


    I used to believe that stuff too but it is nonsense. Last year was unreal for the crop of blackberries, sloe berries, hawthorn berries, crab apples and hazelnuts but the winter was fierce mild.

    It does my head in when people, all too often, say a bumper crop means a bad winter. It's a sign of decent conditions last spring or early summer. Nothing more. Nature does not alter it's bounty with some psychic knowledge of future weather conditions. We have good crops with both mild and severe winters and poor crops leading in to poor and fine winters alike.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 688 ✭✭✭bazlers


    For now.. MT seems to be on the money with a NW to SE flow.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,985 ✭✭✭BLIZZARD7


    Tentative signs of some proper northern blocking coming down the line... Strat showing signs of warming in the outer reaches of FI on the GFS now. How this plays out given the strat-trop disconnect at present remains to be seen. Last year we had a big SSW but no real downwelling to the relevant layers of the troposphere so that will be as important to watch even if we do manage to get an early winter warming.

    Some 2010 style stuff being thrown around by the GFS lately but it's a fair bit out still and the other models are not so sure. As @Syranbruen has pointed out, we had similar charts showing this time last year that never materialised so definitely to be taken lightly at this point.

    I have a feeling something good Is building but we need about another week of output to see just where we are going to land mid/late November. Nice to see promising signs early on though.

    Also, Watch for those lows diving more and more on a NW-SE axis next week...


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,008 ✭✭✭icesnowfrost


    It’s that time again, for me anyway. Here’s to a cold and snowy winter. Nice cold week ahead


  • Registered Users Posts: 10,507 ✭✭✭✭dsmythy


    It does my head in when people, all too often, say a bumper crop means a bad winter. It's a sign of decent conditions last spring or early summer. Nothing more. Nature does not alter it's bounty with some psychic knowledge of future weather conditions. We have good crops with both mild and severe winters and poor crops leading in to poor and fine winters alike.

    If only it had this superpower. It could make up for incoming droughts and crop failures.


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,235 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    Latest ECMWF 2m anom winter season outlook (the more screamish among us may need to look away now )

    HCcMCLJ.png


    Edit. Hemispheric view:

    29t9EYR.png

    New Moon



  • Registered Users Posts: 14,237 ✭✭✭✭leahyl


    Oneiric 3 wrote: »
    Latest ECMWF 2m anom winter season outlook (the more screamish among us may need to look away now )

    HCcMCLJ.png

    Dare I ask for an explanation? :-(


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,235 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    leahyl wrote: »
    Dare I ask for an explanation? :-(

    source.gif

    New Moon



  • Registered Users Posts: 14,237 ✭✭✭✭leahyl


    Oneiric 3 wrote: »
    source.gif

    Eh....storms?? :-(


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 452 ✭✭Logan Roy


    Warmer than average for all of Europe and North America


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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,338 ✭✭✭esposito


    Oneiric 3 wrote: »
    Latest ECMWF 2m anom winter season outlook (the more screamish among us may need to look away now )

    HCcMCLJ.png


    Edit. Hemispheric view:

    29t9EYR.png

    Would take that with a large pinch of salt, just as I would if it had a colder outlook. The default Irish winter is of course a mild and sometimes stormy one so I guess I wouldn’t be too surprised if it did verify!


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