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30-09-2010, 06:24   #1546
M.T. Cranium
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Thursday, 30 September, 2010
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ALERT for possible heavy rainfalls in total later today and especially tonight, with 25-40 mms possible by mid-day Friday in two waves as described below in the forecast. Spot flooding is possible and tonight, driving conditions will be poor due to fog as well as water accumulations on roadways.

TODAY ... rain will work its way across Ireland from west to east this morning and may be heavy at times with 10-15 mms on average ... then it may brighten for a while this afternoon before heavier rain arrives late in the day in the west. Winds will increase to SSW 20-40 mph. ... rather warm and humid with highs reaching 18 C.

TONIGHT ... rain, heavy at times (15-25 mms) with some embedded thunder ... winds continuing SSW 20-40 mph ... foggy with lows 12-14 C.

FRIDAY ... morning showers becoming confined to east by mid-day with some brighter intervals developing, winds veering to WSW 20-40 mph (and some higher gusts mid-day) with more showers developing in the westerly air flow ... highs 17-19 C.

SATURDAY ... partly to mostly cloudy, fog at times especially over higher ground, frequent showers, moderate S to SW winds, lows near 12 C and highs near 16 C. Rainfalls about 10 mms.

SUNDAY ... variable cloud, showers, some longer periods of rain developing mainly in the south, winds backing around to SE but not overly strong (it would seem at this stage) with low pressure tracking to the south taking more rain and wind into the U.K. and northern France (so while it won't be that great in Ireland, the weather is likely to be considerably more adverse in places like south Wales where they will be trying to finish up the Ryder Cup).

For Ireland, expect 5-10 mms of rain and lows near 10 C, highs near 15 C.

If you're interested, the weekend rainfalls could be 20-50 mms in parts of the U.K.

NEXT WEEK is still looking quite unsettled. The disturbance that was briefly Nicole off Florida today should be rounding the turn near Newfoundland on Sunday and heading for Ireland around Tuesday. That may turn out to be a strong wind and rainfall event as it hits the jet stream at full speed. Expect that around Tuesday night so mid-week may be particularly unsettled. Temperatures will stay above normal especially at night.

We had a very pleasant sunny day here on Wednesday (highs near 21 C) as the storm track has shifted far enough north to keep the rain in central B.C. now. It remains very hot in southern California. The east coast was warmer than average too but rain has spread up as far north as Philly now and while Nicole came and went, a strong low is forming off Florida that could bring five inches of rain to the Carolinas today and tomorrow.

Would suggest you check with the active thunderstorm potential thread for some other perspectives on today and tonight's active weather, and I will try to issue updates if awake.
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30-09-2010, 19:10   #1547
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UPDATE _ Thursday, 7:00 p.m.
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Radar shows some moderate rain moving across the southwest this evening and this is spreading gradually east, but the main event that I described in the morning forecast is still out to the west of 20 W and will arrive around 0200h on the west coast spreading gradually across the country late tonight. That area is still developing and should become quite blustery and heavy in terms of rainfall amounts as it arrives. Wind gusts to about 45 mph (not quite a sustained gale) will develop and there could be brief gusts to 60 mph in a few exposed locations depending on how this front develops.

New guidance for Saturday is indicating an isolated area of heavy showers in addition to the general forecast details earlier, to affect mainly Connacht and in particular western Mayo. There could be some locally torrential rainfalls there as a small cluster develops in association with a trough rotating around the main storm centre near Iceland.

Sunday still looks rather unsettled and there could be long intervals of steady rain, although the heavier stuff will make a bee-line for Wales to try to fill the Ryder Cup (is there a Ryder Cup? I don't remember seeing it, just the golf and the dinners).

My research-touted mid-week storm from post-Nicole is now looking more possible with a strong energy centre being developed on several models arriving in Ireland late Tuesday. Watch for this one, it could have more of a connection between the upper and lower levels than any of these medium-strength disturbances coming along in the next few days (and so become more of a wind-producer).

Having another fine day here with not a cloud to be seen and 20 C expected. There has been a very heavy rainfall in parts of the Carolinas spreading up into Virginia, Maryland and Pennsylvania in association with Nicole's hybrid low or whatever you want to call it, actually post-Nicole is a lot more impressive than actual Nicole ever was. Meanwhile, Otto (yes, Otto) is trying to form east of the Windward Islands and could be with us as early as Friday morning. There is also a lot of potential left behind by Nicole and in that general area east of Florida another storm could develop some time over the weekend or early next week.
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30-09-2010, 19:49   #1548
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Just to keep on topic - weather is looking very wet for Sunday, esp at Celtic Manor.
They'll be keeping the lid on the cup.

Last edited by Joe Public; 30-09-2010 at 19:52.
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30-09-2010, 21:51   #1549
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Congratulations Europe on an impressive win. (another forecast, but I've seen these U.S. guys trying to play in wind and rain, and other than Jim Furyk, the frustration factor is going to be enormous ... they will be counting the hours until they can get on the plane.)
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30-09-2010, 22:08   #1550
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by M.T. Cranium View Post
Congratulations Europe on an impressive win. (another forecast, but I've seen these U.S. guys trying to play in wind and rain, and other than Jim Furyk, the frustration factor is going to be enormous ... they will be counting the hours until they can get on the plane.)
Yes, in the K Club in 2006 we hired the services of ex Gordon to literally rain on their parade and it worked, but will it work again? If it does we'll have to give these depressions names. Another contest for you to organise MT, Name That Storm!
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30-09-2010, 23:21   #1551
 
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Actually, I think it should be called the Radar Cup
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01-10-2010, 00:08   #1552
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UPDATE _ Friday, 0010h
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Anyone wondering if the rain now spreading into Kerry is the main event should be advised that the main event is still out around 14-15 W and heading in rapidly but won't hit until about 0300h, however this batch now coming in looks like 3-5 mms by itself, so expect another 15-20 mms after that comes and goes.
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01-10-2010, 06:10   #1553
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Friday, 1st of October, 2010
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TODAY ... periods of rain this morning, heavy at times, with south-southwest winds of 20-35 mph, then brighter from west to east around mid-morning towards early afternoon for eastern counties ... winds veering to west-southwest and gusty for a while before dropping off to 15-25 mph. A few more showers developing, possibly thundery in a few spots ... much of the rain has already fallen but expect a further 10 mms or so. Highs 17 or 18 C.

TONIGHT ... cloudy with occasional showers, hill fog becoming more of a general mist or patchy low-level fog, eventually some areas in very poor visibility with 3-5 mms of rain on average ... very mild with lows 9-12 C.

SATURDAY ... variable cloud, some heavy to torrential showers developing in Connacht especially but more scattered elsewhere, some with hail and thunder (western Mayo and nearby parts of Connacht as well as south Donegal could see some squally conditions). Rainfalls quite variable but between 5 and 20 mms ... highs 16-17 C. Winds WSW 15-25 mph with some briefly higher gusts.

SUNDAY ... overnight rain or drizzle, fog, with morning lows near 10 C ... the weather may brighten a little in western counties by afternoon but it seems likely to stay wet and rather gloomy in the east ... meanwhile the UK will be pounded by heavy rain and strong southerly winds, but in Ireland it should be a more moderate southeast wind backing to northeast ... highs 14-15 C and rainfalls varying from 5 mms northwest to 15-25 mms southeast (for the Ryder Cup event in Wales there could be a real downpour and I wonder if the competition will finish on Sunday at all).

MONDAY ... variable cloud, breezy, more showers or thundershowers developing, possibly heavy at times ... lows near 11 C and highs near 16 C.

TUESDAY ... mark this day down for a possible heavy rain and/or strong wind event with a sharp trough approaching, the remnants of "Nicole" ... timing may change more towards Tuesday night or even Wednesday but mid-week in general blustery and possibly stormy. Temperatures near 15 C.

After that blows through, another deep storm is indicated but this one is going to pull up short and head north, drawing much warmer air north from Biscay ... it may rain in Ireland at least in the west but some dry, warm periods may develop too (that's more likely for the U.K. and France).

There's nothing very chilly showing up for the first half of October on most of the charts. On the east coast of the U.S., a very warm September has ended with a massive rainstorm (over two feet of rain has fallen in parts of North Carolina and nearly four inches today in Washington, that's 100 mms). This is the remnant low of Nicole, and it's heading through NYC and Boston today on its way to Nova Scotia and Newfoundland on Saturday. This storm is followed by a much cooler regime that could see snow at higher elevations and off the Great Lakes at times before it warms back to normal next week.

The west coast continues to sizzle and it was even quite warm here today (Thursday 30th) at about 23 C under unbroken sunshine (there is no snow on the north shore mountains even at 1500m).

I may update today's forecast if anything blustery develops, but it seems that the system is staying rather sedate as it moves through, so far.
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01-10-2010, 11:32   #1554
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UPDATE _ Friday, 1130h
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Conditions are becoming favourable for locally severe showers with hail and thunder across Connacht from about 1230 to 1700h ... satellite imagery shows this development over the near Atlantic waters and the cells should be moving inland this afternoon. Gusts to 50 mph, hail and locally heavy rain will accompany some of these showers, and there is a slight risk of a waterspout, funnel cloud or weak tornado being sighted.
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01-10-2010, 11:48   #1555
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When is tropical storm Nicole due to hit New York I've read that subway might flood are they really going to get that much rain

http://gizmodo.com/5652348/new-yorks...l-storm-nicole
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01-10-2010, 11:55   #1556
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It's moving through NYC at the present time, winds there have just shifted from south to northwest and rainfalls of 2-3 inches have been recorded. This is somewhat less than further west in NJ and into central New York state where 3-6 inches fell in the past day or so. There could be some local urban flooding but maybe not enough to stop the NYC subways. It was worse further south and there are a lot of flood problems across NC and VA.
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01-10-2010, 12:36   #1557
 
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very heavy shower here. plenty of hail mixed in

EDIT: damn...wrong thread. hehe
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02-10-2010, 08:08   #1558
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Saturday, 2 October, 2010
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TODAY will feature some heavy local showers with hail and thunder, spreading across parts of Connacht, west Munster and south Leinster this morning and further to the north and east by this afternoon. Ulster will stay dry and partly cloudy longer (except for Donegal) but eventually all regions will get some of this activity. It will remain strongest in Mayo and Galway as well as some parts of the southwest and southeast. Local rainfalls could reach 25 mms although the average will be closer to 5, and hail may be quite widespread. There will also be some longer sunny intervals in a few places. Winds moderate SSW (10-20 mph with some higher gusts) and highs about 16 to 18 C.

TONIGHT the showers will begin to die out except for a prolonged interval of rain lingering in the southeast and up the east coast about as far as Dublin, so that lows further west and north may drop off to 5-7 C while staying up around 10 to 12 C in some parts of the southeast. Rainfalls of 10-15 mms in the southeast, winds backing to SE 10 mph.

SUNDAY will be mainly cloudy with some brighter intervals developing in the central counties between two areas of more persistent cloud and light showers covering parts of the southeast and the west coast. In those areas there may be low cloud and fog over hills in some places. Winds will continue rather light from a generally SE to E direction, returning more to the S then SW later in the day in the west. Highs will be 15-16 C. (note some heavy rains will develop into southern parts of England and possibly into Wales by afternoon, from a southerly direction).

MONDAY will be cloudy with frequent showers and blustery S-SW winds at times, mild and rather humid with lows near 10 C and highs near 17 C.

TUESDAY will be mostly cloudy with showers at first, becoming blustery with periods of rain developing in strong SSW winds later, lows near 11 C and highs near 16 C.

WEDNESDAY will see the end of that system with gradual clearing and less blustery SW winds continuing, highs near 17 C.

THURSDAY could bring a pleasant break from the unsettled weather, but it seems likely to return and push some rain at least into western counties by Friday. The near Atlantic will become very windy from a southerly gale but this may stay offshore and blow more towards Iceland eventually, as swelling high pressure over Scandinavia late next week may be gradually taking more charge of the situation and setting up a more settled SE'ly weather pattern by the following weekend and towards mid-month.

We enjoyed a third ideal day in a row here with sunshine and highs in the lower 20s on Friday the first. The remnant low of Nicole raced across New England today and brought rainfalls of 3 to 6 inches to many parts of the northeast U.S. but it has begun to clear with much cooler weather setting in there tonight (local time). That low is now in New Brunswick, Canada and heading east on pace to arrive in some form in Ireland by about Monday night or Tuesday.

Please watch the ongoing thunderstorm and weather report threads here for new ideas about storm development later today as it's very likely yours truly will be asleep (again).
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02-10-2010, 11:56   #1559
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STORM ALERT _ Saturday 2 Oct 2010 _ 1145h
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Have posted a separate thread to alert boards readers in general, severe storm complex on radar and from report on this forum, covering counties Limerick and Cork especially around Mallow by 1215-1230, a line of storms that may contain large hail and torrential downpours, and has reportedly frequent lightning strikes, moving northeast 20-30 mph, towards a line from Limerick City to Mallow to near Cork. It may move just north of Cork but people around that city should be on alert too.

With this severe storm there is a slight risk of a weak tornado developing or more likely some funnel clouds being sighted. Hail is probably a more likely risk, and there could be torrential rains locally.

Will advise on further developments and eventual dissipation as this line may hold together well into the "midlands" counties.
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03-10-2010, 06:38   #1560
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Sunday, 3 October, 2010
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TODAY ... Cloudy with a few bright or even sunny intervals, although rather misty near the south and west coasts much of the day ... any low cloud and light rain around this morning may break up for a while, then showers will redevelop although nothing too heavy seems likely (2-4 mms here and there) ... winds rather light SE to S, veering more SW to W later on ... breezier in the north by this evening. Highs today about 15-16 C.

TONIGHT ... Cloudy with a few clear intervals, mist returning and becoming foggy before morning ... a few light showers with some stronger SW winds developing towards morning ... lows 7-10 C.

MONDAY ... cloudy with a few sunny breaks, blustery showers developing, possibly becoming heavy or even locally severe by mid-day and afternoon, winds SW 30-45 mph with some higher gusts ... highs 15-17 C. Rainfalls on average 15-25 mms.

TUESDAY ... windy at times with squally showers, passing quickly, brighter intervals mixed in, winds SW 25-45 mph, lows near 7 C and highs near 16 C.

WEDNESDAY ... cloudy with some breaks, more showers in a moderate SW wind, backing at times to southerly, then falling off by evening to light. Lows near 8 C and highs near 15 C.

THURSDAY ... mainly dry with variable cloud, some chance of rain near the west coast, winds moderate SE to S but very strong to gale force (50-55 mph) gusts near the west coast by late in the day from a deep ocean storm out around 20 W ... lows near 6 C and highs near 16 C.

FRIDAY ... continuing breezy or locally windy in the west, intervals of light rain perhaps confined to western half and south coast, lows near 7 C and highs near 15 C. Winds backing to SSE 20-40 mph.

WEEKEND ... cloudy with some light rain or drizzle, tending to be drier in some east central counties, a rather cool E-SE wind developing, lows near 7 C and highs near 14 C.

This pattern may evolve gradually into an easterly backing to northeast, with rather dry conditions generally but the chance of isolated brief showers from the Irish Sea near the east coast at times. There may eventually be some frost from this pattern mid-month.

We enjoyed yet another fine day here on Saturday, with a high of about 19 or 20 C. The weather across North America is generally closer to average than most of the past few weeks, staying hot and dry in the southwest, and rather chilly near the Great Lakes. The tropical scene has gone rather quiet with a slight chance of a named storm mid-week near the Virgin Islands.
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