The UK response - Part II - read OP

theological · 21-09-2020 9:19am

It's not an assumption. It actually happened probably more than once.

On travel I've been saying that for months.

Peregrinus · 21-09-2020 9:22am

theological wrote: »

It's not an assumption. It actually happened probably more than once.

On travel I've been saying that for months.

Oh, I'm sure it does happen. The question is whether that is what is driving the current rise in infections, or whether other factors are more signficant.

S.M.B. · 21-09-2020 10:02am

I believe they are attributing a large portion of the blame for what's happened in Bolton to someone going overseas, coming back and not self isolating for 14 days, instead going on a pub crawl with their mates, getting symptoms a few days later and then testing positive for the virus.

The reality is that a combination of policy, comms, public behaviour and effectiveness of track and trace that is having an effect on the rising levels.

4068ac1elhodqr · 21-09-2020 1:16pm

Interesting story circulating this morning (mainly in the tabloids) that Boris took a jolly/trip weekend to Italy recently:

Italian newspaper La Repubblica reported on the alleged trip last night, saying he was thought to have flown into Perugia on around September 10.
The airport put out a press release saying he had landed there in recent days, alongside others including ex-PM Tony Blair.
The paper cites a source saying he arrived “on Friday 11 September at 2pm and left on Monday 14 September 14th at 7.45am”.
Could be just a rumour, not ideal under the covidy-circumstances:

https://metro.co.uk/2020/09/21/where-perugia-italy-did-boris-johnson-secretly-visit-13301115/
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8753857/Downing-Street-forced-deny-Italian-newspapers-claims-Boris-Johnson-enjoyed-jaunt-Perugia.html
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/boris-johnson-spent-long-weekend-in-perugia-to-baptise-his-son-7m5t2g36t

Meanwhile a London council tells it's already soon to be locked down, and panicking residents 'not to forget their whistle':
https://twitter.com/wandbc/status/1307645934021554177
Another tweeter suggests having an old fashioned mechanical clock (perhaps as nuc fallout could render iWatches redundant).

robinph · 21-09-2020 3:55pm

S.M.B. wrote: »

I believe they are attributing a large portion of the blame for what's happened in Bolton to someone going overseas, coming back and not self isolating for 14 days, instead going on a pub crawl with their mates, getting symptoms a few days later and then testing positive for the virus.

The reality is that a combination of policy, comms, public behaviour and effectiveness of track and trace that is having an effect on the rising levels.

Undoubtedly whoever went out on a pub crawl rather than isolating caused problems, but they are not solely responsible for the whole city becoming infected. They may have infected a couple of their drunken mates in a couple of pubs, but everyone else could still have stopped the spread at that point if they were all practicing their social distancing after receiving a drunken hug from the covid pub crawler. Still needed the rest of Bolton to be acting like idiots for it to spread, not like that one person directly infected all of them. If you've been out on the beers and can't quite remember what you got up to then it's probably not a good idea to go visit granny the following week.

That one person is just unlucky to have been identified as having not isolated, but there will have been other idiots out in Bolton that week doing exactly the same idiotic things.

Enzokk · 22-09-2020 7:51pm

Interesting question and answer here,

https://twitter.com/tompeck/status/1308394044771512323?s=20

If I have it right, the UK isn't doing as well with Test and Trace as Germany and Italy not because those countries are locally run but because the UK people are freedom loving and you cannot expect them to follow the guidelines, but it is important that people follow the guidelines.

I am paraphrasing here.

S.M.B. · 22-09-2020 8:19pm

My wife went back to work yesterday after the past 8 months of maternity leave and I've been WFH for the same period.

The tube and overground is just full of people not wearing masks. It's so disappointing. If you look at the TFL twitter account these days, what used be an endless list of replies to angry tweets about disruption has been replaced with an endless list of replies to angry tweets about people not wearing masks.

22-09-2020 9:04pm

Enzokk wrote: »

Interesting question and answer here,

https://twitter.com/tompeck/status/1308394044771512323?s=20

If I have it right, the UK isn't doing as well with Test and Trace as Germany and Italy not because those countries are locally run but because the UK people are freedom loving and you cannot expect them to follow the guidelines, but it is important that people follow the guidelines.

I am paraphrasing here.

Boris really does manage to come up with a complete load of Sh1te. It’s incredible really.

Peregrinus · 23-09-2020 2:52am

Enzokk wrote: »

If I have it right, the UK isn't doing as well with Test and Trace as Germany and Italy not because those countries are locally run but because the UK people are freedom loving and you cannot expect them to follow the guidelines, but it is important that people follow the guidelines.

Ah, yes. Italy is doing better than the UK because its people are so famously docile and rule-bound, as against the notoriously anarchist and unpredictable Englishmen, known throughout the world as the Children of the Wind.

political analyst · 23-09-2020 2:34pm

When I watched Newsnight on Monday this week, I heard 1922 Committee vice-chairperson Sir Charles Walker say continuation of draconian restrictions would reduce the Exchequer's income and thus deprive the NHS of money. Did that thought not occur to Boris when he made the threat of another national lockdown in England?

Distancing, mask-wearing and hand sanitising mean it would be possible to protect the vulnerable (including the elderly) while making an effort to achieve herd immunity in the rest of the population by permitting controlled spreading of the virus.

S.M.B. · 23-09-2020 4:14pm

political analyst wrote: »

Distancing, mask-wearing and hand sanitising mean it would be possible to protect the vulnerable (including the elderly) while making an effort to achieve herd immunity in the rest of the population by permitting controlled spreading of the virus.

He explicitly said that wasn't possible.

I thought it was odd that there wasn't a single mention of Track & Trace or testing while addressing the nation.

is_that_so · 23-09-2020 4:45pm

A BMJ summary of the state of testing in the UK.

Is it the increase in demand, “ineligible” applicants, or a lack of laboratory capacity hampering coronavirus testing? Jacqui Wise examines the key questions around the current lack of access to tests in the community

https://www.bmj.com/content/370/bmj.m3678

trixi001 · 23-09-2020 4:56pm

theological wrote: »

I question this logic for one reason. Namely that the UK infection level was the lowest it had ever been in the middle of August during the eased restrictions.

The question then becomes what happened between then and now? People were still going to the pub but people were behaving responsibly it seems at least based on the data.

A lot of the recent level of infection has come from 20 - 30s demographic meeting in large gatherings and overseas travel.

I guess it is possible that pubs can be a source of infection after people come back from a large gathering or overseas travel with asymptomatic coronavirus. Or I guess if pubs are disregarding the guidance.

Or maybe - schools went back
As you says pubs and restaurants have been open since July, figures spiked in September, the schools are now back - and the 20 - 30's infected are parents too!
People have also been encouraged back to work.

Stop blaming it on increased socialising - which in England has been happening for most of the summer!

theological · 23-09-2020 5:02pm

trixi001 wrote: »

Or maybe - schools went back
As you says pubs and restaurants have been open since July, figures spiked in September, the schools are now back - and the 20 - 30's infected are parents too!
People have also been encouraged back to work.

Stop blaming it on increased socialising - which in England has been happening for most of the summer!

The figures show that most of the infections are in the 20 - 30 demographic. That's why I'm saying that. It is similar in Ireland.

The reality is that most of the new infections are not from school environments. Feel free to disprove this with data.

trixi001 · 23-09-2020 7:27pm

theological wrote: »

The figures show that most of the infections are in the 20 - 30 demographic. That's why I'm saying that. It is similar in Ireland.

The reality is that most of the new infections are not from school environments. Feel free to disprove this with data.

The age group being infected are the ages of people that are parents too,kids are taking it home from school, parents are going to work ,to see siblings etc, and yes possibly socialising,but that doesn't mean the spike in caused by socialising.

The pubs and restaurants have been opened for months and there has been no spike, the spike has corresponded with schools opening, both in Ireland and the uk

Not saying the schools should close but neither should pubs and restaurants

GT89 · 23-09-2020 7:45pm

This video sums up the truth about BoJo. He's no Winston Churchill

https://youtu.be/NyCfKiQVO9c

CelticRambler · 23-09-2020 8:05pm

theological wrote: »

The figures show that most of the infections are in the 20 - 30 demographic. That's why I'm saying that. It is similar in Ireland.

The reality is that most of the new infections are not from school environments. Feel free to disprove this with data.

There's an awful lot of unverified data swilling around, some of which indicates that children (especially teenage) are spreading it to teachers and parents.

But that's by-the-by. The 20-30 age group happens to be the one that's least likely to be able to work from home. In my circle, everyone I know who's working from home, with the exception of my own son, is in their 40s and well able to shelter themselves from contagion. On the other hand, everyone in their 20s and 30s who still has a job (about 60% of them don't any more) is working in a role that requires them to get to work, and to interact with other people while they're working.

The one group that I can be 100% certain did not catch or spread the virus was the 20-somethings who travelled abroad and safely socialised in a virus-free environment. If any of them are going to get infected in the near future, it will not be because of their socialising or their foreign travel: it'll be because they were required to show up at an office somewhere to prove their existence.

S.M.B. · 23-09-2020 8:37pm

is_that_so wrote: »

A BMJ summary of the state of testing in the UK.

https://www.bmj.com/content/370/bmj.m3678

"The government chose to centralise the system, working with private companies and universities, rather than existing NHS laboratories. Wilson believes this was a mistake. “The Lighthouse lab model isn’t sustainable in the long term, and we need an exit strategy,” he says."

Still refusing to move away from the centralised and privatised system.

23-09-2020 9:27pm

GT89 wrote: »

This video sums up the truth about BoJo. He's no Winston Churchill

https://youtu.be/NyCfKiQVO9c

I thought the video (I couldn’t cope with all of it) was as big a load of Sh1te as Boris himself.

But that’s just me

beggars_bush · 23-09-2020 9:54pm

S.M.B. wrote: »

"The government chose to centralise the system, working with private companies and universities, rather than existing NHS laboratories. Wilson believes this was a mistake. “The Lighthouse lab model isn’t sustainable in the long term, and we need an exit strategy,” he says."

Still refusing to move away from the centralised and privatised system.

Lots of Tory donors making a lot of money no doubt

A Dub in Glasgo · 23-09-2020 9:58pm

Deleted User wrote: »

I thought the video (I couldn’t cope with all of it) was as big a load of Sh1te as Boris himself.

But that’s just me

Same for me, I got 2 minutes in a chucked it

GT89 · 23-09-2020 10:21pm

[Deleted User] wrote: »

I thought the video (I couldn’t cope with all of it) was as big a load of Sh1te as Boris himself.

But that’s just me

How's it sh1te the man speaks bare facts

robinph · 23-09-2020 11:12pm

trixi001 wrote: »

The pubs and restaurants have been opened for months and there has been no spike, the spike has corresponded with schools opening, both in Ireland and the uk

The increase in cases was happening at the same time as the schools reopened, so can't have been due to the schools. There was no time for it to have happened. Maybe the further increase in cases is happening via schools, but it was turning before they went back.

But as schools are now back more people are back in their offices as well because they can. Whilst a school might cause a local outbreak, it is the people working in offices who then spread it to more far flung areas.

24-09-2020 5:33am

GT89 wrote: »

How's it sh1te the man speaks bare facts

It’s a foul mouthed monotonous rant with nothing to endear it to me, basically

Zubeneschamali · 24-09-2020 9:03am

Is the new NHS Covid app based on the Irish one? I took a look at their website and can't make out.

I know the NI and Scottish apps are.

theological · 24-09-2020 9:13am

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Is the new NHS Covid app based on the Irish one? I took a look at their website and can't make out.

I know the NI and Scottish apps are.

It's based on the Google / Apple algorithm but the source code is on the NHSX GitHub so probably not.

The source code for the apps and the Java backend is there.

S.M.B. · 24-09-2020 9:30am

The app has finally been released today! Huzzah!

24-09-2020 12:22pm

S.M.B. wrote: »

"The government chose to centralise the system, working with private companies and universities, rather than existing NHS laboratories. Wilson believes this was a mistake. “The Lighthouse lab model isn’t sustainable in the long term, and we need an exit strategy,” he says."

Still refusing to move away from the centralised and privatised system.

Isn't Pillar one testing carried out in NHS labs? My understanding was that NHS labs are being used as much as possible, but capacity being left for other medical tests?

They still have a day job to do after all.

Joe_ Public · 24-09-2020 4:30pm

Aegir wrote: »

Isn't Pillar one testing carried out in NHS labs? My understanding was that NHS labs are being used as much as possible, but capacity being left for other medical tests?

They still have a day job to do after all.

There is no issue i have read about with NHS labs. The problem is with the lighthouse labs being unable to cope with community testing so 1000s of samples are being sent abroad and turnaround targets are not being met. I dont believe nhs labs can deal with the community testing because it is not the same procedure and uses different kit. One system is designed and initiated by experienced and dedicated experts, the other is manned by Deloitte.

24-09-2020 6:17pm

Joe_ Public wrote: »

There is no issue i have read about with NHS labs. The problem is with the lighthouse labs being unable to cope with community testing so 1000s of samples are being sent abroad and turnaround targets are not being met. I dont believe nhs labs can deal with the community testing because it is not the same procedure and uses different kit. One system is designed and initiated by experienced and dedicated experts, the other is manned by Deloitte.

nothing is manned by Deloitte and it has nothing to do with capability, it is about capacity.

Lighthouse is a consortium of various labs from different backgrounds. the consortium was put together as part of a project in April, which Deloitte managed. https://www.lighthouselabs.org.uk/

Joe_ Public · 24-09-2020 6:35pm

Aegir wrote: »

nothing is manned by Deloitte and it has nothing to do with capability, it is about capacity.

Lighthouse is a consortium of various labs from different backgrounds. the consortium was put together as part of a project in April, which Deloitte managed. https://www.lighthouselabs.org.uk/

I know how they work. It is Deloitte that managed the whole logistics of the private lighthouse labs and that is where the testing system is failing. If there is a failure with capacity, then ergo it is a question of competence and capability. A "world beating" testing system, the envy of the entire world, should simply not be facing those issues.

They had a choice six/seven months back when scaling up, to use existing nhs and university labs, where the expertise and infrastructure already existed, to invest in that and build it up as seemed the rational option to most people. Or, as they chose, to pump 100s of millions into the private sector and build a new system from scratch with all the attendant risks and problems that brought.

Remember back in june or july when 50,000 tests had to be flown to the US and it was explained away as "teething problems." The same thing is still happening only the excuses have changed. Just rank incompetence at a bare minimum.

S.M.B. · 24-09-2020 7:34pm

Aegir wrote: »

nothing is manned by Deloitte and it has nothing to do with capability, it is about capacity.

Lighthouse is a consortium of various labs from different backgrounds. the consortium was put together as part of a project in April, which Deloitte managed. https://www.lighthouselabs.org.uk/

The quote from the BMJ was saying that the centralised nature of the Lighthouse network of labs results in an unscalable system as it continuously fails to keep up with the ever growing demand for Tier 2 tests. The centralises system is resulting in the bottle necks that limit the capacity.

24-09-2020 7:39pm

Joe_ Public wrote: »

I know how they work.

you clearly don't if you think that Deloitte man the Lighthouse labs.

Joe_ Public wrote: »

They had a choice six/seven months back when scaling up, to use existing nhs and university labs, where the expertise and infrastructure already existed, to invest in that and build it up as seemed the rational option to most people. Or, as they chose, to pump 100s of millions into the private sector and build a new system from scratch with all the attendant risks and problems that brought.

or better still, do both. Pillar one testing, which is the NHS and PHE labs, has gone from 12,000 per day to over 70,000 per day. There is a finite level at which NHS and PHE can manage, so it makes sense to bring in private sector partner, especially when they have the capacity and capability to help.

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Remember back in june or july when 50,000 tests had to be flown to the US and it was explained away as "teething problems." The same thing is still happening only the excuses have changed. Just rank incompetence at a bare minimum.

maybe they should have got an expert to manage it. Clearly you have the knowledge and expertise to do this.

24-09-2020 7:42pm

S.M.B. wrote: »

The quote from the BMJ was saying that the centralised nature of the Lighthouse network of labs results in an unscalable system as it continuously fails to keep up with the ever growing demand for Tier 2 tests. The centralises system is resulting in the bottle necks that limit the capacity.

So they have identified the bottleneck, they now need to address that. They have gone from what, 12-15,000 tests per day to over 250,000. That is quite impressive and if they want to do as Boris announced and take it to the next level, they need to improve the system.

Joe_ Public · 24-09-2020 8:05pm

Aegir wrote: »

you clearly don't if you think that Deloitte man the Lighthouse labs.

or better still, do both. Pillar one testing, which is the NHS and PHE labs, has gone from 12,000 per day to over 70,000 per day. There is a finite level at which NHS and PHE can manage, so it makes sense to bring in private sector partner, especially when they have the capacity and capability to help.

maybe they should have got an expert to manage it. Clearly you have the knowledge and expertise to do this.

I meant managed and subsequently clarified it but you know that anyway. Bottom line is they promised a world beating testing system months ago and its still racked with problems and logistical setbacks which are nearly completely at the private end of the opetation. And still people excuse this and bat it away by saying its a "capacity" problem as if its some sort of unforeseen event they could do nothing about. Their actual capacity is what they can process through their labs and who really knows what that figure is as no one in their right mind still trusts anything the government or its health department tells them.

As for your glib last comment...just let that rubbish pass.

24-09-2020 8:22pm

If the app, the world beating app to be correct, works, then thanks be.

If project moonshot follows the same trajectory, we should see that particular rocket make it over the roof of the semi-d across the road. Just. Unless it hits the chimney.

24-09-2020 8:32pm

Joe_ Public wrote: »

I meant managed and subsequently clarified it but you know that anyway. Bottom line is they promised a world beating testing system months ago and its still racked with problems and logistical setbacks which are nearly completely at the private end of the opetation. And still people excuse this and bat it away by saying its a "capacity" problem as if its some sort of unforeseen event they could do nothing about. Their actual capacity is what they can process through their labs and who really knows what that figure is as no one in their right mind still trusts anything the government or its health department tells them.

As for your glib last comment...just let that rubbish pass.

Maybe you could tell us where testing is being carried out in a world beating manner?

As you're an expert and all.

Joe_ Public · 24-09-2020 8:55pm

Aegir wrote: »

Maybe you could tell us where testing is being carried out in a world beating manner?

As you're an expert and all.

No, i couldnt say. I could point out a good few countries that have very efficient and well organised testing systems, but i know of only one government that claims to have a "world beating" one. As well as a world beating tracing system, world beating furlough scheme etc etc etc.

Christy42 · 25-09-2020 12:27pm

Joe_ Public wrote: »

No, i couldnt say. I could point out a good few countries that have very efficient and well organised testing systems, but i know of only one government that claims to have a "world beating" one. As well as a world beating tracing system, world beating furlough scheme etc etc etc.

It seems to be part of unthinking nationalism that everything must be better than anyone else if it is local. Not enough to have a top of the range. They have to reinforce that they think everyone else is worse. The US, China and North Korea are big for it as well.

Stick on a few more flags on stage and go for it. It always feels like it is making up for something. Like the mass flags you see in the US.

Joe_ Public · 25-09-2020 1:24pm

Christy42 wrote: »

It seems to be part of unthinking nationalism that everything must be better than anyone else if it is local. Not enough to have a top of the range. They have to reinforce that they think everyone else is worse. The US, China and North Korea are big for it as well.

Stick on a few more flags on stage and go for it. It always feels like it is making up for something. Like the mass flags you see in the US.

I did have to raise my eyebrows during pmqs the other day when Johnson was wittering on about their amazing, "unique" furlough scheme, even as reports were appearing in the newspapers that they were considering basically cogging Germany's much lauded "kurzarbeit" system.

25-09-2020 2:28pm

Christy42 wrote: »

It seems to be part of unthinking nationalism that everything must be better than anyone else if it is local. Not enough to have a top of the range. They have to reinforce that they think everyone else is worse. The US, China and North Korea are big for it as well.

Stick on a few more flags on stage and go for it. It always feels like it is making up for something. Like the mass flags you see in the US.

I get you.

Its the constant droning on about the "Best fans in the world" during every world cup that really gets me.

Christy42 · 25-09-2020 10:22pm

Aegir wrote: »

I get you.

Its the constant droning on about the "Best fans in the world" during every world cup that really gets me.

This a shot at Ireland? I don't watch enough football to recognise it. I know we had some good press over the euros for it but best in the world seems like a tough line to prove. As I said it is generally making up for something, if it was about Ireland I suspect it was because we had no hope of winning the actual competition! Can't imagine the winners cared too much about their fans helping people cross the street or whatever was happening. In the case of the British government it seems to be because they have made a massive mess upon mess of their response to this crisis.

Where our politicians saying it each match or are you trying to connect some broadcasters filling some dead air/tabloid clickbait vs announcements by the British government?

theological · 26-09-2020 9:49am

There's a huge amount of willy waving in this thread. It's bottomed out in terms of good helpful content about the UK and coronavirus.

theological · 26-09-2020 12:50pm

So just took my first swab sample for the ONS. They just sent a delivery guy to my door who had no idea about how to take the swab. He told us there was a video we needed to watch. On googling I found it. Highly incompetent... Only 4 more to go.

is_that_so · 26-09-2020 4:41pm

There will probably be a lot more of this, especially as Boris & Co look like they are no longer in control.

Police have moved to break up a protest in central London after thousands of people defied their advice and demonstrated against lockdowns, mass vaccinations, mandatory wearing of face masks and other coronavirus restrictions.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/sep/26/london-lockdown-protesters-urged-to-follow-covid-rules

Sudden Valley · 26-09-2020 5:35pm

I dont think Boris can be blamed for a large rally of non-mask wearing protestors turning up in London. I think by Christmas there nay infortunately may be lot more people agreeing with their position as fatigie sets in.

4068ac1elhodqr · 26-09-2020 7:28pm

Sudden Valley wrote: »

I dont think Boris can be blamed for a large rally of non-mask wearing protestors turning up in London..

Could be right, the Gubbins lad drove 100's of kms to check his eyesight, under lockdown. Their advisor (the good Professor 'doom') also drove a fair distance for an immoral swinging session, Boris's old man went to Greece, plenty of other lockdown rule breakers to blame. Days ago, one of their brexit-partners, the gammon faced Sammy was spotted looking feckles, without any mask on, during a Tube journey.
Lead by example.

Sudden Valley · 27-09-2020 1:32pm

I see Labour has overtaken the Tories for the first time in a long time in opinion polls published today. I think the UK is struggling similar to other countries around them with Covid but perhaps their messaging has been too optimistic (like the pandemic will be over by Christmas) and has given the public unrealistic expectations. Boris's first term may be judged more on his Covid response than his getting Brexit done.

theological · 27-09-2020 1:41pm

Sudden Valley wrote: »

I see Labour has overtaken the Tories for the first time in a long time in opinion polls published today. I think the UK is struggling similar to other countries around them with Covid but perhaps their messaging has been too optimistic (like the pandemic will be over by Christmas) and has given the public unrealistic expectations. Boris's first term may be judged more on his Covid response than his getting Brexit done.

The opinion polls don't matter so much when an election is far off.

What's more interesting on the parliamentary horizon is the debate about whether MPs should debate the coronavirus restrictions in parliament before they are enacted.

There's a vote about whether or not the coronavirus powers should be extended and Graham Brady (chair of the Conservative 1922 committee) has put an amendment requiring debate and votes from MPs going forward. He's got 46 Tory rebels the SNP and Labour on side so it'll be interesting to see if they manage to do it.

I think everyone would agree that coronavirus is a bigger priority than Brexit.

BonnieSituation · 27-09-2020 10:27pm

I'm sure if the Tories were leading in the polls it would be spun another way.

---

My partner's friend manages a group of nursing homes around the SE of England and there are rumblings that London and the SE are being prepped for a full on lockdown in a fortnight. Now, I don't know the exact details but that's what she has said based on a board member who seems to have gotten forewarning from his contacts in govt. the last few times there's been changes/lockdowns etc. that have affected the business.

On foot of this info they have been moving patients around their group of homes. These were scheduled to happen anyway, but they're being moved up on foot of this info.

I guess we'll see...

The UK response - Part II - read OP

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