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UFC/MMA Gambling. **NO AFTER-TIMING**

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    #5252
    mailburner
    Registered Users Posts: 23,841 ✭✭✭✭mailburner


    going for smith sub at 9/1 (888) just because I think it's a
    bit too big

    3 round fight, better again imo


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    #5253
    mailburner
    Registered Users Posts: 23,841 ✭✭✭✭mailburner


    same with Viana sub 9/2 opponent has been subbed 3 times and poly likes subs

    not brave enough to do a single on robbie but stuck him in a trixie with smith sub and robbie pts
    Robbie some price even though I think he might get outpointed, still too big


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    #5254
    ASOT
    Registered Users Posts: 7,733 ✭✭✭ASOT


    mailburner wrote: »
    same with Viana sub 9/2 opponent has been subbed 3 times and poly likes subs

    not brave enough to do a single on robbie but stuck him in a trixie with smith sub and robbie pts
    Robbie some price even though I think he might get outpointed, still too big

    Great shout on Viana


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    #5255
    tinpib
    Registered Users Posts: 4,479 ✭✭✭tinpib


    Skimmed the card for my usual highly lucrative picks:

    Not a huge amount of form to go on in the opening Smith/Azure fight but Smith at 2.9 seems big, they look like they might be fairly even to me.

    Alexander Romanov is the closest thing to a hype train tonight but his price isn't short enough to truly qualify him as one. The fight has all the other hype train traits, he has an impressive record of quick finishes but they are outside the UFC and it's his UFC debut tonight against a vastly experienced De Lima who is 2.2.

    I think De la Rosa/Araujo will be close so went with De la Rosa on pts at 3.5 for value.

    Went for OSP at 2.1 but not terribly confident as he apparently had Covid only a week or 2 ago????


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    #5256
    tinpib
    Registered Users Posts: 4,479 ✭✭✭tinpib


    An even weaker card on paper than Munhoz/Edgar on 22nd of August, which I scarcely believed was possible, however with 4 women's fights there is some possible value.

    Went for Modafferi pts 5.0

    Angela Hill pts 2.2

    Justine Kish pts 5.0

    Julia Avila pts 2.05

    Also Ed Herman at 3.0 looks big.

    As always just small stakes for interest, otherwise I wouldn't have much motivation to watch the card.


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    #5257
    mailburner
    Registered Users Posts: 23,841 ✭✭✭✭mailburner


    romanov by sub might be a bit of value at 7/1 (betway) next best is 4s

    has 6 sub wins and 5 ko wins yet the ko is odds on


    alan patrick pts 9/2 pp can't have bobby green at odds on against anyone


    azaitar ko 15/8 pp lots of ko wins and his opponent has been ko'd quite a few times

    singles/treble


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    #5258
    mailburner
    Registered Users Posts: 23,841 ✭✭✭✭mailburner


    cowboy surely overpriced at 11/8 to beat niko price?



    He's a better all round fighter in my eyes so unless both start swinging for fences early (niko might try and get it done early) I really see cerrone outpointing or finishing price in the second or third round.
    I think this fight is tailor made for cerrone who ought to be very motivated after his recent losses but for me even the performance against pettis will more
    than suffice here.


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    #5259
    The Floyd p
    Registered Users Posts: 1,919 ✭✭✭The Floyd p


    mailburner wrote: »
    cowboy surely overpriced at 11/8 to beat niko price?



    He's a better all round fighter in my eyes so unless both start swinging for fences early (niko might try and get it done early) I really see cerrone outpointing or finishing price in the second or third round.
    I think this fight is tailor made for cerrone who ought to be very motivated after his recent losses but for me even the performance against pettis will more
    than suffice here.

    I'd find it hard to back any fighter that's lost their last 4 fights in a row and been finished in three of them.


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    #5260
    Homelander
    Registered Users Posts: 4,365 ✭✭✭Homelander


    Yeah, I couldn't even imagine betting on Cerrone in this fight.

    Stranger things have happened, but really, against Price, I can only see a stoppage that goes against him.

    Cowboy was a great fighter, but he's one of those who just hasn't remained competitive in his later years.

    Glad he's getting good paydays from it though, he's well earned it


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    #5261
    mailburner
    Registered Users Posts: 23,841 ✭✭✭✭mailburner


    The Floyd p wrote: »
    I'd find it hard to back any fighter that's lost their last 4 fights in a row and been finished in three of them.

    price has lost 3 of his last 5 and been finished in those 3

    Thought cerrone got the better of pettis and losing the other three
    to conor, tony and justin was inevitable

    Price did well to go get as far as the third round with Luque, finished by al hassan and Neal so
    recent form is similiar even if cerrone faced the very best out there

    I suppose neither are good betting propositions but for me cowboy is value if nothing else


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    #5262
    eagle eye
    Registered Users Posts: 37,661 ✭✭✭✭eagle eye


    Cerrone isn't a top three fighter but he's miles better than Price.


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    #5263
    mailburner
    Registered Users Posts: 23,841 ✭✭✭✭mailburner


    colby pts
    chimaev win

    double at 2.16


    Can anyone see this not coming in?

    I know woodley can put anyone away and will hopefully be
    more motivated for this but he will in my opinion have to
    go five and there's no way on earth he can outpoint colby.


    Darren Stewart at 21/10 looks a lively underdog to me, can't believe he's that big v Holland, both are closely matched for me.


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    #5264
    al87987
    Registered Users Posts: 685 ✭✭✭al87987


    mailburner wrote: »
    colby pts
    chimaev win

    double at 2.16


    Can anyone see this not coming in?

    I know woodley can put anyone away and will hopefully be
    more motivated for this but he will in my opinion have to
    go five and there's no way on earth he can outpoint colby.


    Darren Stewart at 21/10 looks a lively underdog to me, can't believe he's that big v Holland, both are closely matched for me.

    Woodley doesn't make it past 3 rounds for me


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    #5265
    mailburner
    Registered Users Posts: 23,841 ✭✭✭✭mailburner


    al87987 wrote: »
    Woodley doesn't make it past 3 rounds for me

    Wow! Really?

    After going 5 with Usman and Burns I'm not seeing how colby finishes tyron unless he taps with exhaustion.


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    #5266
    mangobob
    Registered Users Posts: 1,149 ✭✭✭mangobob


    al87987 wrote: »
    Woodley doesn't make it past 3 rounds for me

    Well after his little stunt at the press conference, I would be delighted if that were the case.

    But to be honest I am not sure about it. I would be pretty confident that he is up for this, given the history between these two. I also don't think Colby poses a significant knockout threat to him, which is what seems to make him hesitate and become gun shy.

    Based on the combination of both of those factors I can see Woodley really coming forward and throwing bombs and if he connects it could be a short night for Colby.

    On the other hand, the latter has a far superior engine and an incredible output so if he can avoid getting knocked out in the first few rounds, I would favour him over a 5 round fight to get his hand raised in a decision.


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    #5267
    mailburner
    Registered Users Posts: 23,841 ✭✭✭✭mailburner


    colby and tyron not to touch gloves 2/11 betway :pac:


    that's a safe enough bet though I don't think they'll accept a huge stake either


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    #5268
    eagle eye
    Registered Users Posts: 37,661 ✭✭✭✭eagle eye


    I like Cowboy via submission.

    Meerschaert is a very dangerous opponent for Chimaev, definitely a big step up in opposition for him and not a guy you want to go to ground with either.
    I like Chimaev and I think he's special but this is his first litmus test.


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    #5269
    mailburner
    Registered Users Posts: 23,841 ✭✭✭✭mailburner


    Alpar pts 5/2
    Dern pts 15/4
    Spann sub 7/1


    three small singles/treble


    A lot of the pundits seems to think dern will get a quick enough sub even though markos has only been subbed once...at twice the odds I'll chance pts

    Spann has 11 subs, he'll probably need to take Walker down to avoid a ko.


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    #5270
    tinpib
    Registered Users Posts: 4,479 ✭✭✭tinpib


    Usual low stakes value bets.

    I have actually done 2pts on Meerschaert, the prices absolutely scream hype train to me. He has bags of experience, 2 of his recent defeats were splits. His opponent has a perfect record, is fast tracked onto the main card, and this is a huge step up in class. Of course he may win easily but the 4.5 on Meerschaert is a crazy price.

    My boy with the glass jaw Johnny Walker is 2.5 to win by KO.

    Peer pressure on here made me go for Cowboy at 2.2

    Marya Bueno Silva on pts 2.87

    And I agree Darren Stewart looks too big at 3.3

    A very good card IMO, the main card is similar standard to some recent PPV's.


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    #5271
    tinpib
    Registered Users Posts: 4,479 ✭✭✭tinpib


    tinpib wrote: »

    I have actually done 2pts on Meerschaert, the prices absolutely scream hype train to me. He has bags of experience, 2 of his recent defeats were splits. His opponent has a perfect record, is fast tracked onto the main card, and this is a huge step up in class. Of course he may win easily but the 4.5 on Meerschaert is a crazy price.


    :pac: :pac: :pac:


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    #5272
    MUFC91CS
    Registered Users Posts: 325 ✭✭MUFC91CS


    Surely Jan Blachowicz in overpriced at 2/1 to beat Reyes at the weekend? Think it should be much closer than that


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    #5273
    ASOT
    Registered Users Posts: 7,733 ✭✭✭ASOT


    MUFC91CS wrote: »
    Surely Jan Blachowicz in overpriced at 2/1 to beat Reyes at the weekend? Think it should be much closer than that

    I said the same to a mate earlier, the bookies have the main closer odds wise than this, I think it should be the other way around. This fight is much closer in paper than the main event imo.


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    #5274
    mailburner
    Registered Users Posts: 23,841 ✭✭✭✭mailburner


    Took Adesanya on points at 7/2 betway was 4s yesterday with betfred

    I fancy him to win and think this is the most likely way he'll get it done and for me it represents value compared to the ko which is 8/5
    Adesanya also has an 8 inch reach advantage which will surely be used to good effect.

    Costa hasn't gone five either so maybe there's a chance he'll tire late on and if so a late stoppage may be a possibility so a saver on Adesanya by ko in round 5 at 20s with paddy power
    I do fear for costa if he goes trying to take the head off adesanya early on which he shouldn't really be doing if he follows a gameplan.


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    #5275
    Porthallian
    Registered Users Posts: 2,346 ✭✭✭Porthallian


    mailburner wrote: »
    I do fear for costa if he goes trying to take the head off adesanya early on which he shouldn't really be doing if he follows a gameplan.

    Dont you think this is his best shot at winning though? Can't see him outpointing or outlasting Izzy. His jiu-jitsu is probably pretty solid but better wrestlers have tried and failed to hold Adesanya down.


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    #5276
    eagle eye
    Registered Users Posts: 37,661 ✭✭✭✭eagle eye


    Yeah I can't see Costa staying calm if he's being outpointed. I can't see any other result except an Adesanya ko. Costa is dangerous though.


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    #5277
    mailburner
    Registered Users Posts: 23,841 ✭✭✭✭mailburner


    Porthallian wrote: »
    Dont you think this is his best shot at winning though? Can't see him outpointing or outlasting Izzy. His jiu-jitsu is probably pretty solid but better wrestlers have tried and failed to hold Adesanya down.

    Yes and no
    He'll have 10 mins and he'll be done with that approach if it doesn't pay off and the ko will surely come later for Izzy then.
    Romero won 2 rounds v Izzy even though I thought 49/46 was more accurate but I'm not sure you can use romero as a gauge either.
    I think he'll need to go for broke if the first two rounds don't go his way which is how I see it going but with costa my gut would be that'll he'll go after Izzy early and pay for it.


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    #5278
    D.Q
    Registered Users Posts: 6,054 ✭✭✭D.Q


    Gonna do izzy Rd 3 KO I think


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    #5279
    mailburner
    Registered Users Posts: 23,841 ✭✭✭✭mailburner


    espino sub 8/5

    eubanks pts 13/5


    treble with izzy pts

    more I look at costa fights the more I think izzy by points or by ko round 5 at the very earliest
    He's failed to put much lesser fighters away so I'm thinking it'll very
    hard to get costa outa there


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    #5280
    tinpib
    Registered Users Posts: 4,479 ✭✭✭tinpib


    Value bets:

    Dawadu 2.2

    Ketlen Viera pts 2.0

    I think Izzy on pts is the bet but I'll cheer on Costa by KO at 3.5, was a special with Hills.

    Marques hasnt fought in UFC which normally means I back his opponent, but he is 0/3 in UFC so went with Marques at 2.5

    Also did Espino by sub at 2.5

    William Knight 2.3

    Shane Young 2.1

    Good luck all. I will prob end up catching a good chunk of main card live.


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    #5281
    d00mk1n
    Registered Users Posts: 116 ✭✭d00mk1n


    Germaine de Randamie opened up evens, now 5/6 vs Julianna Pena.

    GDR looks good to me


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