UFC/MMA Gambling. **NO AFTER-TIMING**

I like gonzago sub, but i think ill go for Barboza fight of the night

broders3 wrote: »

Really like this card from a betting perspective. I think Anderson at 2/5 is tremendous value, I really don't see him losing this fight. Weidman is great up and coming fighter but a win over a hurt munoz doesn't make him an Anderson beater in my opinion. The fact Weidman hasn't been in the cage for a year doesn't help him either. I have him at No3 in the division after Anderson & Vitor. I wouldn't pick Weidman to beat Vitor so I defo ain't picking him to beat Da Spyda!

Working that bet into an Accumulator as follows:

Picks are Craig over Leben (leben just doesn't have it anymore, even his cardio has let him down in recent fights)
Parke over Tokudome (Japanese fighters tend to fight 1 weight class above where they should and I think Parke outmuscles him for a decision)
Munoz over Boetsch (Never been sold on Boetsch as Tier 1 fighter. I see him as a gatekeeper going forward and I think Munoz's athleticism will eventually get the better of him for a late stoppage/decision)
Kennedy over Gracie (Kennedy is a very powerful guy and a decent grappler in his own right, I think he keeps this one standing and beats Gracie down)
Anderson over Weidman (as above)

1 euro bet pays out 9.68.

Haven't gone near the Swanson/Siver fight as I see that as a pickem, slight advantage to Swansom but not betting against Siver.
Nervous for Frankie Edgar in this fight, it may not be this bout but I see him fighting an up and comer in the near term who destroys him, ala grant over maynard. He has taken a lot of damage in the past 3 years with not many wins to show for it. 1/5 doesn't represent value on him in my opinion.

Interested to hear thoughts on this card as there is some guys who are slight favourites that should be more heavily favoured in my opinion, Anderson & Kennedy especially.

I agree with all of these points, although I do see Cub finishing Siver, regardless might hop on that accumulator with you!

Got Silva by KO/TKO at 10/11 on Betfair yesterday.


Thank you Weidman hype!!

welkin wrote: »

How would you guys rate Weidman's chin?

Haven't really followed his career, I guess he went 3 rounds with a power striker like Uriah Hall so it can't be that bad.

Just wondering can he absorb Anderson's power.

I honestly don't think there are too many out there who Silva cane stop. Hes so accurate too which makes him more "Powerful".

Weidman could have the best chin around but Silva could still put him away.

rounders123 wrote: »

Gonzaga is the worst 4/11 shot ive ever seen.

Anderson Silva 10/11(KO) Betfair is the best 10/11 shot ive ever seen.

not one to be taking a short price on but this time I think he
should be a short price
He doesn't have a lot to beat in fairness and if he loses to herman
it will be by far his worst loss given he's lost to the very best (bar schaub)
herman will be getting his p45 after this one imo

welkin wrote: »

You think Silva could put away Big Country?

Could? Yes.

mailburner wrote: »

For me edgar pts at 17/10 is my idea of the best bet here so thats my
main bet, didn't go big though.
I think edgar will keep this standing and win a comfortable decision
I don't think oliveira is in frankies league at all but I'm glad frankie
is getting something easier on the way to something bigger hopefully

couple of small ones then on
double
silva by ko 8/11
edgar pts 17/10

sub of the nite
gonzaga at 7/1

silly treble on
gonz sotn
silv kotn 5/2
siver swans fotn 9/2

main bet in, thank you frankie
oliveira gave him a good scrap but frankies been there with
a much higher calibre of opponent
glad i didnt get involved in silva other than a small double
deserved what he got for all his clowning around

no sub of the night so money back on that one

siver/swans edgar/oliveira shared fotn
weidman ko of the night...wow

broders3 wrote: »

l.Paddy power only paid out half odds because there was 2 fon,is this normal?

that's right
half your stake at full odds is how they do it when shared

scudzilla wrote: »

If Vitor gets the next shot then lump on him QUICK, his odds will be great but will drop drastically leading up to the fight

I will be lumping alright
I thought the same with rockhold though and thought evens
was a gift almost two weeks before the fight but the price
stood firm and never shortened

I think you're right with this one though, I could see vitor
starting around 6/4-7/4 and after that who knows
I think bookies will almost certainly have weidman a false price but
then again I may be wrong

interesting that 18 of 27 pros picked jake over rory
that makes jakes price of 2/1 look very big
I'm sticking with rory though

http://www.sherdog.com/news/articles/Pros-Pick-MacDonald-vs-Ellenberger-54065

broders3 wrote: »

I think the bj win for Rory was nothing more than a showcase,I feel most top 20 ww's would beat bj these days and ellenbergers victim list is much more impressive..in saying that it's a very even fight,the odds On ellenberger are far too generous so I'm going with him.best of luck mate

Thanks broders, best of luck yourself
If masv doesnt beat chiesa ill be rooting for jake
That's true about bj
He called bj out knowing full well he was going to dominate him
He's had a fairly easy time of it since his loss to condit, a fight
which he had won if the ref let it go a few more seconds
He was fully entitled to win his next four fights well so this is
really his first test since condit imo
It was an amazing start albeit his second ufc start to almost
beat carlos who had just come off a dec loss to kamp and a
dec win to jake
He took carlos down at will and that probably wont happen to jake so
im looking forward to what tactics he'll employ but no doubt his tactics
will be spot in being part of the same camp as the champ
I'd be surprised if he stood and traded with jake myself

such an open division when you think condit, rory, kamp and jake have
beaten or been beaten by one of the other

broders, you always get in with your picks first so I'll nip in
ahead of you for once

Small bet on aldo by decision at 3/1 (vcbet)

I'm thinking zombie is one tough dude and will very hard to ko and
if aldo hasn't finished him by the end of the second round then I think
the aldo points win will be as good as in
The fact that its in brazil and a long lay off for kz is what's putting
me off kz for the win but you could see him nicking one or two
of the latter rounds if aldo slows down as he often does which is
probably inevitable with the amount of weight aldo cuts

Who in their wildest dreams could have seen zombie ever fighting
for a title after his first fight v garcia?
Aldo by ko is 4/7 aldo by dec 3/1
There's no way imo those prices should be that far apart when you
consider 3 of aldos 4 ufc fights have gone 5 rounds and kz has got
a fair chin on him
I think it's a once in a lifetime opportunity for kz and I actually hope
he takes it but aldo just too quick imo
Aldo may well take him apart being in brazil and all that but I think
it's worth the risk that kz survives the initial onslaught
I wasn't planning on getting involved in that one but I see that price as
a bit of value

edit, one concern I do have is that if aldo picks kz apart and kz abandons
his gameplan and starts swinging for the rafters
It'll be a short night for the zombie if he goes down the road with aldo



Going for a treble besides which works out at almost 19/10 (pp) machida, maghales and leites
I really fancy maghales and machida but the double only works out at 4/6
which is a little short for my liking so I'm throwing in leites at 4/5

Maghales is not a fighter I thought I'd ever be backing but
fighting at home against perosh who I consider to be a
weaker opponent and just don't see him winning this
Maghales did perform creditably against davis lto and with
it being in brazil I think he takes this by sub maybe
I do think he will be desperate to win this given a loss would
surely mean him being cut again
It's now or never vinnie

Machida v davis is one I see standing whether it goes one round
or three rounds
I think davis stand up is improving and he was too good for
maghales but machidas stand up is in a different league to davis
I'd fancy machida to win very comfortably on points
I don't see it being an exciting fight though

Lastly, leites to beat watson to make the odds more respectable
It wasn't that long ago leites was fighting silva for the title which
must be the worst title fight of all time with leites not willing to engage
and silva horsing around
I thought leites would have been shorter than 4/5 for this if i'm
being honest and maybe a single might be a more sensible bet.
Watson is tough and he will probably try to take the head
off leites but I could see leites subbing watson early enough as I
don't believe he will stand with watson
I see watson possibly spending most of the first round on his back.
The majority of leites wins have been by sub also with 13 subs
from his 20 wins
Leites has faced a much higher calibre of fighter of the years
than tom watson which should help also
Maybe I'm giving leites too much credit or not giving watson
enough but I had leites priced up a bit shorter myself

stumbled across this on the espn site also which makes
the pts win for machida look even better

11: Knockdowns landed for Machida in his UFC career, tied for fourth most all-time. In the light heavyweight division, Machida is second to UFC Hall of Famer Chuck Liddell, who has 14. Davis has not been knocked down in nine UFC fights.

74: Davis' significant strike defense percentage, fourth highest in UFC history. "Mr. Wonderful" is one of the most difficult fighters to hit, absorbing just 53 significant strikes in his seven UFC wins. In his loss against Rashad Evans, Davis was hit with just 38 percent of significant strikes. Machida is one of the best strikers in UFC history, landing 57 percent of his significant strikes, which is seventh best all-time.